Week four is when we think we know a lot more than we do. I know one thing for sure, the Steelers at this moment are not good. If you win the turnover battle at plus four, you should not be tied with under seven-minutes left in a game. I am an unabashed homer for my Steelers. I have been going to games for 37 years. This team is bad. I am afraid they get exposed on national tv on Sunday morning.
MIN -2.5 VS PIT (LONDON)
Brian Flores will have his defense feast on an immobile QB, with a somewhat shaky offensive line that can not run the ball. My counter would be Carson Wentz is the Vikings QB and yes, forcing turnovers is a skill. Can the Steelers win the turnover battle and win, sure. But I am out on this team until they look like they can stop anyone from driving into the redzone on every possession. Lean Vikings, but pass.
LAC -6 at NYG
The Chargers are very good, but I am not a fan of laying points on the road. Yes, homefield counts for less in 2025, but I am avoiding the Dart wildcard here. I want to back the Giants defense, but things have not been great in New York. Yes, they scored a bunch of points against the Cowboys, but it appears that every will be doing the same. Lean NYG, but pass.
PHI -3.5 at TB
Man, I want to be on the Bucs here. Each team has taken a unique path to being 3-0, with the Bucs needing to come from behind in every single game late in the 4th quarter. I with Tampa Bay was healthier and I would be inclined to be on them, and I still might be. Pass for now, but lean Bucs.
CLE +10 at DET
The Cleveland defense is good as we all know at this point. The Lions offense though has been excellent since their week one struggles in Green Bay. The Browns inability to score has kept them from having a winning record and it may do the same here again. I am going to lean on the Lions offense being the best unit in the game. I also believe the Lions defense will get pressure the way they have all season long and keep the Browns offense from doing anything. I lean Detroit but staying away for now.
NO +16.5 at BUFF
I want no parts of either side here. Pass.
WAS -1.5 at ATL
The Falcons looked horrendous last week getting shut out in Carolina. Maybe Penix and Falcons are just better in a dome. Washington is either playing a slightly banged up Daniels, or Marcus Mariotta on the road and laying points with out their top wide receiver. This feels like a great buy low spot for the Falcons. I think Atlanta gets back to running the ball and getting the ball in Bijan’s hands as much as possible. I am on Atlanta +1.5 in contests and as a wager.
TEN +7 at HOU
I hate the Texans. I think they can not block, or score points. I have decided that the Titans are just terrible their coach is getting fired at the end of the season. This is the best possible get-right spot for the Texans. If there is any life in Houston it happens here. I have been going against the Texans every week and now I am highly considering laying this many points with them. Lean Houston, but pass for now.
CAR +5.5 at NE
Both teams are actually bad. This number is too large, but I am not attacking this game. Pass for me.
IND +3.5 at LAR
I want to take the Rams here I really do, but maybe the Colts are actually a good team. I lean Rams but pass for now.
JAX +3.5 at SF
I continue to really like the Niners, but they keep losing key players. The Jags are not good. I think when this season ends, we are going to look back and say the NFC is significantly better than the AFC, outside of Buffalo. Maybe that is how it plays out, but we know the AFC South is bad. Pass on this game for now.
BAL -2.5 at KC
One of these teams will be 1-3. At this moment the best until in this game is the Ravens offense. Conversely, the worst unit in this game might be the Ravens defense. This is a fun game to watch, and I am not touching this game. The Chiefs are home dogs for the second time in two weeks and that did not work. Pass for me.
CHI +1.5 at LVR
I think the Dallas defense is making everyone look good. The Bears might just stink. I am not so sure the Raiders are good either though. The Bears defense is also bad and I think the Raiders defense may be able to get pressure on the Bears. This feels like a good spot for the Raiders to actually run the ball. Lean Raiders.
GB -6.5 at DAL
The Cowboys might be headed for an all-time horrendous season. I can not wait to see George Pickens melt down even more. Remember when the Steelers traded for the Bears second round pick, and it ended up being the first in the second round. I think Dallas is so bad and injured that the third-round pick might end up being extremely high. I do not want to lay points on the road, but I am considering the Packers. Dallas can not stop anyone. The Packers offense played badly, but that was more because of the Browns defense. Ean Green Bay.
NYJ +2.5 at MIA
The Dolphins were not that bad on Thursday against the Bills. The Miami offense showed some signs of life here. Both these teams are not good and we all know it. The Dolphins were a kickoff return away from winning their home opener and I think they will be competitive again. Lean Miami.
CIN +7.5 at DEN
I really want to take the Bengals to bounce back here, but the Denver defense could dominate the game easily. Pass for me. The Bengals offensive line is just so bad I want no parts of them.
This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!
I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
ATL +1.5
OREGON +3.5
I hate Penn State. Let’s get that out of the way. I live in and around tons of PSU fans and they are all well aware of their team’s limitations and record against top ten teams. Now, I get to fade them as a favorite against a top tier team? I am in.
3 Team 10-point Teaser -120
DET PK/ATL +11.5/LVR +8.5
Contest Picks
ATL +1.5
Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I am using Houston this week, as this is the only time they are really usable.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (Week 4)
Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (Week 4)
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
NO +16.5
DET -10
SF -3.5
CHI +1
CIN +7.5
Regular Plays
ARZ +1.5
MIN -2.5
WAS -1
CAR +5.5
LAC -6.5
PHI -3.5
HOU -7
IND +3.5
BAL -2.5
GB -6.5
NYJ +2.5
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 27-22 55.10%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 7-3 70%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-5 61.53%
My Plays
Overall 4-4 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 9-6 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 0% -100
Win The Weekends 