This is your reminder to check line movement after your contests lock their lines. There are going to be several interesting situations this week with obvious value.
GB -8.5 at CLE
The Packers are missing starters along the offensive line. The Browns defense has been very good. My only worry is will the Browns offense score here. I am willing to back the defense here and think the Browns make it ugly with their defense. CLE +8.5 in contests and as a wager.
NYJ +6.5 at TB
I do not like this game as a wager, however as a contest play I am interested. Over on DK in their contest the NYJ are listed at +7.5. This of course crosses a key number and gives you a lot of CLV. Tampa Bay will be without three starters from their planned starting offensive line. NYJ in contests only.
LAR +3.5 At PHI
I am extremely worried about the Eagles offense. The Eagles lost the Super Bowl, got a new OC, had an awful season. They then fired their OC, hired a new one and won the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore left to be the head coach of the Saints, and the Eagles offense is back in neutral. Lean Philly, but I do not like this spot.
ATL -5.5 at CAR
Pass for me. I hate laying points on the road and will not do so here. The Falcons offense feels like if they could convert some of these field goals into touchdowns, then their perception would be vastly different. I am staying away.
IND -4.5 at TEN
I would call this the Admiral Akbar game, but I am done with the Titans for now. I need to see their offense get going a little bit more before I can back them. If you add that in with the way the Titans collapse in the second half off games, I have more reservations about being on the Titans. Pass.
PIT -1.5 at NE
Nope. Done with the Steelers.
LVR +2.5 at WAS
I am out on this game as a wager. However, in contests where the Raiders are +3.5, I am interested. Jayden Daniels will not be playing and who knows if Washington has enough to score some points without their star QB. Pass on a wager, but in on Raiders in contests.
CIN +3 at MIN
Do you want to wager real money on Carson Wentz, or Jake Browning? Pass.
HOU +1.5 at JAX
The model loves the Texans. The Jags forced a bunch of turnovers last week, knocked out Joe Burrow and still lost outright and against the spread. Having said that I cannot back the Texans and their god awful offensive line. Pass for me.
NO +7.5 at Seattle
The model loves the Saints and feels like this number is several points too high. I am taking Seattle in survivor, not sure I want to take the Saints here and root against myself. This line is definitely inflated due to the perception of the Saints. Pass for me, but I could see taking the dog here.
DEN +2.5 at LAC
Maybe the Chargers are just that good? I think the Broncos defense is better than they showed last week. Pass for me.
DAL -1.5 at CHI
How can you lay points with the Cowboys here and feel good? Pass on this game.
ARZ +3 at SF
Full disclosure I bet the Niners -2.5 earlier this week. In contests the Niners are laying under a field goal as well. I really like the Niners this week no matter who the QB ends up being. SF as a wager and in contests.
KC -6 at NYG
The Chiefs will not go 0-3, but I am not betting on Kansas City to cover this number. Pass on this game.
DET +4.5 at BAL
The model also loves the Lions. The Raven’s defense is not healthy, and the new Lions offensive line was bad in week one, but much better in week two. If Goff has time the Lions will score, but not sure they can stop the Ravens at all. I am passing on this game.
This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests.
I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
SF -2.5
CLE +8.5
Contest Picks
SF -1.5
CLE +8.5
NYJ +7.5
LVR +3.5
Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. Yet, for week three I am using Seattle in both. Yes, this is not ideal, but this is the only week at this point I would even consider using the Seahawks. I would like to save Baltimore, Buffalo and some other teams for use later in the season. Planning to go 18 weeks is hard and of course I might be eliminated before I even get there, but we need to map it all out.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)
Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DET +4.5
NO +7.5
HOU +1.5
Premium
PIT -1.5
PHI -3.5
Regular Plays
MIA +12.5
WAS -3.5
GB -8.5
TEN +4.5
MIN -3
TB -6.5
ATL -5.5
DEN +2.5
CHI +1.5
ARZ +2.5
KC -6
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 18-15 54.54%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 4-3 57.14%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 4-3 57.14%
My Plays
Overall 3-3 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100
Win The Weekends 