Last year sucked. I was stuck in neutral all year long. 3-2 week, followed by a 2-3 week. I hovered right around 50%, or below for most of the season. I found myself 2-2 with a night game and or late game that could have gone my way, and it never really did. In 2022, everything went right. Anytime I needed a play, or a later game, it always went my way. When I say always, I mean it happened constantly. This was highlighted by winning the Raiders game when the Patriots tried to lateral in a tied game, and it was picked and run back for a touchdown. I’m sure you have seen the highlight. I found myself on the right side of any and all variance in 2022, but the exact opposite since then.
But what really happened in my life during those two years? During the 2023 season I moved in October. Moving houses is not great for leaving a ton of time for football. In 2024, my kids travel sports schedule accelerated quite a great deal. I found myself even busier on weeknights and weekends than I had ever been before. Can I blame life for getting in the way? Sure. In reality, I just did not put the time in to be successful. That does not work in any aspect of life, let alone betting NFL sides.
Life got in the way this summer too. Due to travel and family activities, I was not able to make it to Vegas this summer and enter the Circa contest. I ran out of weeks to travel, and it became too difficult to pull off. I even bailed on a guy’s trip to Boston too. I will be back next year. This year, I am only entered in the Draft Kings $500 and $50 contests. I know it is not as exciting as the $1k entry Circa contest, but I have friends I will be cheering on to take home the top prize. (GO JEFF and JOE!) I did miss my annual Vegas trip with My dad and friend Joe. I also missed the Vegas restaurants. There is always next year! I will be thinking of Catch, Hakkasan, and Carbone until next summer and would like to try even more places!
Refocusing on this year and I feel like my schedule, especially my children’s is much more manageable. I am all set for this season. It would be fitting that I have a fantastic year, when I am not in the Circa contest, but it is a long grind.
Every week I will continue to post my bets; my contest plays and my thoughts on the slate of games. Thursday’s will be for just the Thursday game and Friday’s will be for every game. I will also mention my survivor picks, as I am in a few of those contests as well. I may not finalize my selections until later in the week but will tweet on what I decided to do. I may post those picks on TikTok and YouTube again, but we shall see. In the meantime, I have posted the computer model output since inception in 2015. 52.11% on all games and 53.13% on all premium plays over the last ten years. We have made some tweaks this year to address the platinum section that has taken a hit since 2020. Either way we are back. The NFL is finally in our lives, and we get to enjoy the next 18 weeks.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
TBD
Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week)
Denver
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
Regular
PHI -8
NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Playoffs 4-9 30.76%
Overall 141-127 52.61%
Platinum 6-9 40%
Premium 42-31 57.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 48-40 54.54%
My Plays
Overall 40-41 49.38%
Circa Millions Record 40-45 47.05%
Draft Kings Contest Record 39-41 48.75%
Computer Model History
2015-2023
Overall 1340 – 1231 52.11%
Premium 297 – 262 53.13%
Platinum 46-58 44.23%
Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
2021 138-146 48.59%
2022 130-147 46.93%
2023 134-139 49.08%
2024 141-127 52.61%
Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
2021 28-29 49.12%
2022 25-31 44.64%
2023 24-25 48.97%
2024 42-31 57.53%
Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57 %
2021 5-9 35.71%
2022 3-5 37.5%
2023 1-5 16.66%
2024 6-9 40%
Win The Weekends 