I feel like I am stuck in the middle here. Feels like every week there is a night game that can swing the week in a positive way, and it is not happening at this point. Oh well, we soldier on as the first quarter of the season is over. It is nice that the Circa Millions has quarter prizes as well that people can win should their season go sideways.
NYJ +2.5 at MIN (LONDON)
This is an odd one. At the start of the season, it would be for sure the Jets would be favored. Now the Jets cannot score, have a QB that cannot move at all and are somehow facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has been incredible, not to mention the play of Sam Darnold. This will be the best test for both the Minnesota offense and the Jets defense. I am firmly in the camp of the Jets are not very good. The favorites have cleaned up in Europe. The Jets have one WR and the line has struggled to protect and make running lanes. While the defense has been solid, they have only played one real team in the Niners. The Niners got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. This game is a massive coaching miss-match favoring the Vikings. I could be walking into a trap here, but Vikings in contests and as a wager.
CLE +3.5 at WAS
The Browns can not score. Washington can not be stopped. This feels like a trap. Coming off two massive road wins in a row and their third overall, this feels too easy. The Browns are getting healthier, but the QB remains. I am passing, but there is an easy argument to be made that the Commanders can get to 21 no matter what and Cleveland can not. Lean Wash, but pass for now.
BAL -2.5 at CIN
This is the most random spot that I love. Everyone watched the Ravens destroy Buffalo on Sunday night and of course we were on them. The public is all over the Ravens and thinks they are the team to beat at this point. I am going the other way. I believe the Bengals stack the box and force Lamar to throw on them, which has been a struggle at times. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has been on fire. I expect that to continue as the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Of course last week the game got away from the Bills and the Ravens played very well defensively when the Bills were one-dimensional. What happens to the Ravens if the Bengals do that to them? I expect the Bengals to score here and force the Ravens to keep up. They won’t. Bengals in contests and as a wager.
BUFF at HOU -1
This line has now flipped to Houston -1. I continue to believe Buffalo is fraudulent and only beaten bad teams. The first time they faced a real offense they got shredded. I am weary of going against Buffalo after a big loss, since I am not that into the Texans. Without Joe Mixon, the running game has been bad. Buffalo will be missing at least one key member of their offense in Shakir and at some point, a lack of weapons matters. Lean Houston but staying away for now.
CAR +4 at CHI
I hate this game. How can the Bears lay more than three points to anyone. Pass.
IND +3 at JAX
This is a must win for the Jags. I hate this game as well. I would either play the Jags or pass. No thank you.
MIA +1 at NE
I mean why? Pass.
ARZ +7 at SF
This feels like the spot you should be on the Cardinals, but San Fran back home with all their weapons feels like the better play. I am passing here.
LVR +2.5 at DEN
Again, nope. Pass here. Some of these games are terrible.
NYG +7 at SEA
The Giants appear to be without Singletary and Nabers. A team that struggles on offense loses two of their only options. Ugh, pass. Seattle is coming off a short week traveling home with a slew of defensive injuries. Pass.
GB -3.5 at LAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. Who wants to back the injured Rams here? I do! The Packer’s defense is not good and teams have thrown on them. I think the Rams will run the ball and Stafford will find the randoms he has been throwing to. Lean Rams in contests and as a wager.
DAL +2.5 at PIT
The Steelers will put JPJ on Lamb and then are worried about stopping, who? Tolbert? Ferguson? The Steelers defense lines up perfectly to attack Dallas. There will be pressure unless they stop calling holding like they did last week. Dallas’s defense will not be good, especially with their two studs out of the front seven. This feels like an old-school Steeler’s primetime spot. Steelers in contests and as a wager.
NO +5.5 at KC
This feels dumb. The Chiefs are missing their RB. The Chiefs are missing their stud WR. The Chiefs are relying upon an undrafted free agent and a guy they signed off the street to play running back. Juju will matter in the Chiefs passing attack from now on. I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game by three points or so after a late field goal or Carr turnover. My god am I backing the Saints in primetime on the road in KC?! YES, I AM. Saints in contests and as a bet.
I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
NO +5.5
CIN +2.5
MIN -2.5
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
SF -7.5
Premium
MIA +1
BAL -2.5
CLE +3.5
LAR +3.5
DAL +2.5
Regular Plays
TB +2.5
MIN -2.5
CHI -4
IND +3
BUF -1
LV +3
SEA -6
NO +5.5
NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall 37-25 59.67%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 10-7 58.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-9 52.63%
My Plays
Overall 9-11 45%
Circa Millions Record 9-11
Draft Kings Contest Record 10-10
Win The Weekends 