The computer has been on fire after two weeks, I have not. I knew last week would be wonky, but not that strange. With two weeks, we have a little more information on all these teams and hopefully we can profit off of it this weekend! As always, I am looking to find five games I like for the Circa Millions picks contest.
LAC +1.5 at PIT
A team has an old resurgent running back, a banged up QB and zero weapons, and is on the road against the best defense in the NFL and bare barely a dog. I get the argument of Herbert is better than Fields, but this is a strength-on-strength game. I am not impressed with the Chargers at this point and the Steelers win in Atlanta looks even better now. Fields ability to run has been the item that keeps this offense moving into field goal range and I think that occurs again. Notice I did not say touchdowns, but in this game 17 points may be more than enough. I like the Steelers in contests and as a wager.
CHI +1.5 at IND
I hate both these teams. Neither team can stop the run. Both teams have young fun QB’s. The Bears offensive line is atrocious, and I think that will be the difference. I am hopeful the Colts figure somethings out here and run the ball successfully. Lean Indy.
HOU -2 at MIN
This is the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. This number has come down as professionals are on the Vikings. Despite being 2-0, something feels off with the Texans. I think they will figure it out. Are the Vikings really headed to 3-0? Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing extremely well and the Texans have struggled on the road. Lean Vikings.
NYG +6.5 at CLE
It seems like the Giants are the correct side here. It feels impossible to take Daniel Jones on the road against a good defense. Pass for now, but lean NYG.
PHI +3 at NO
This is the game with the biggest week-to-week spread change. If I told you this was the spread two weeks again you would have assumed that Jalen Hurts was out, and Kenny Pickett was leading the Eagles. I do not know what to make of this game. I do not trust the Saints and think the Eagles have to be better. Yet, the Eagles are all over the place and feel headed for a coaching change in a few months. Pass.
DEN +6.5 at TB
Nope. I am not laying almost a TD with the Bucs. Maybe Denver is better than they have shown losing to Seattle and Pittsburgh, but I am not wagering to find out. Pass.
GB +2 at TEN
Ready to get weird? If Jordan Love is ruled out, I am all about the Titans here. In both of their first two games the Titans defense was solid. They only lost to the Bears because Will Levis made some real choices on protecting the ball. The Titans should have had more points last week as well, but Levis went full Levis again. Titans could easily be 2-0 ATS. The Packers did the best they could to win will Malik Willis last week and had to hold on, despite very little offense. I think the Titans defense will completely shut him down. Titans as a wager and leaning toward contests too. If Love plays, I am out though.
CAR +5 at LVR
Nope. I know the Panthers are the correct side here, but I can not do it. Pass for me.
MIA +4.5 at SEA
Pass. Seattle has not covered either game as a favorite this year. This line is obviously inflated, but I am passing.
DET -3 at ARZ
The Lions dominated last week but had no points to show for it. The Cardinal’s defense was supposed to be bad, and the Bills scored a bunch of points, but the Rams without both starting WR’s and missing four offensive-line starters struggled, go figure. This is a get right spot for the Lions. If Detroit cannot score 28+ this weekend, they are not who we thought they were. Arizona comes back down to Earth here and will see the Lions pass rush get home. Lions as a bet and in picks contest.
BAL -1 at DAL
Pass. I have no clue here. Are the Ravens really going to be 0-3, seems unlikely. Is Dallas as bad as they looked last week, also impossible. Dallas’s pass rush could dominate this terrible Ravens line, but I am skeptical all around. I am out.
SF -7 at LAR
I want to take the Rams so badly. This is still Brock Purdy on the road laying a touchdown, without CMC and Deebo. The Rams are so beat up it is comical. Pass.
KC -3.5 at ATL
The Chiefs have won both their first two games, but they have come down to the wire. I am not thinking of backing Kirk Cousins in primetime, am I? Oh baby, I am. The Chiefs have no running back now. Travis Kelce has slowed down. This feels like a spot the Chiefs start slowly and win a close game. I am taking the home dog getting more than a field goal. Falcons in bets and contests at +3.5.
Jags +5.5 at BUFF
The Jags are the right side here, but I am done with them for now. I thought this offense would have weapons, but it does not appear so. Maybe that is coaching, or the QB, but either way, nope.
WAS +7.5 at CIN
Pass. This game is screaming Bengals blowout win, but are they capable? I am reluctant. We can agree the Commanders defense has been shredded by WR in the first two weeks. I am out.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -1.5
DET -3
ATL +3.5
I will post my picks on Twitter/X on Sunday morning.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +4.5
Premium
NYJ +6.5
BAL -1
SF -7
DET -3
Regular Plays
CLE -6
GB +2
CHI +1.5
MIN +2
PHI +2.5
PIT -1.5
DEN +6.5
CAR +5.5
KC -3.5
JAX +5.5
CIN -7.5
NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall 19-11 63.33%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 5-2 71.42%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-3 62.5%
My Plays
Overall 4-6 40%
Win The Weekends 