How disappointing is 3-2 when you start 3-1. Sadness. Anyway, I have been sick the last few days and that might explain why I am going against my model in a few spots.
LVR +8 at BAL
Ravens always struggle laying more than a touchdown. That Ravens offensive line may struggle with the Raiders pass rush. I am passing, but I am taking Baltimore in Survivor.
SF -5 at MIN
We do not make money by laying points on the road. Pass here.
NO +6 at DAL
I love the Cowboys at home. We get to bet against the Saints here, when we know the Cowboys are going to score. I am on Dallas in bets and contests.
LAC -5 at CAR
I mean, this is our second home dog getting more than a FG, but nope. You know how Tom Brady and the Pats used to break models and conventional norms, well the Panthers may do that in the opposite direction.
IND -3 at GB
I want to take the Packers so badly here, but Malik Willis exists. Pass for me.
TB +7.5 at DET
If the Buc’s defense was healthy, I would be very interested in Tampa Bay. This feels like an easy trap of taking the dog here. I wonder if the public recalls the playoff game. Pass for me.
NYJ -3.5 at TEN
On a short week you want to lay points on the road with an old man at QB? Nope, pass.
SEA -3.5 at NE
I am not laying more than a FG on the road. I am just not.
NYG +1.5 at WAS
I want to jump right back on the Giants, but I am hesitant. I think both of these teams are terrible, but the Giants have to be better than they showed. Lean Giants.
CLE +3 at JAX
The Jags came through last week for us, but could have easily won outright. With a lead they fumbled into the end zone late on Sunday. Part of adjusting and betting NFL, especially in week two is being ready to change your opinions on the fly. The Jags defense did well against the Dolphins. The Browns offense is now missing their stud TE, has a makeshift OL and yeah, their QB might just be washed. I am on the Jags -3 in contests and wagers.
LAR +1 at ARZ
The Cardinals defense was extremely and last week and gave up 14 plays of ten or more yards. I am prepping myself to take the Rams team missing three offensive line starters and no Puka. Lean Rams.
CIN +6 at KC
A year ago I would have jumped on the Bengals. Now, no Higgins, a bad offensive line and a lack of preparation to start the season seems to be plaguing the Bengals. I am leaning KC with the rest advantage, a strong defense and offense that is better than it has ever been.
PIT -2.5 at DEN
This is testing me and my Steeler love so badly. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. Lean Steelers.
CHI +6.5 at HOU
Bears may only have DJ Moore at WR and they struggled with a good defense last week. Lean Houston, but I hate betting favorites.
ATL +6.5 at PHI
Do we all recall how well Kirk Cousins performs in primetime? On the road. In Philly. The Eagles have a rest advantage. Also, Cousins was so immobile last week he took zero snaps from under center. Yes, the Eagles defense is not what it used to be, but I like them here. Eagles in contests and for a wager.
So, here we go I have three games at the moment and need to find two more for contests.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
DAL -6
PHI -6.5
JAX -3
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Week 2 Baltimore
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
LAR +1
Premium
SF-6
CLE +3.5
CHI +6.5
ATL +6.5
Regular Plays
BUF +2.5
NO +6
TB +7.5
GB +3
TEN +3.5
NE +3.5
NYG +1.5
CAR +6
BAL -8
DEN +2.5
CIN +5.5
NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall 10-5 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-1 0%
My Plays
Overall 3-2 60%
Win The Weekends 