Last night was the appetizer Sunday is the main course. I am so excited! I have updated all the odds boosts and placed all of our computer model plays below as well. Sunday at 1 PM cannot get here soon enough!
The sites have been pretty slow to post any other odds boosts for this weekend in the NFL. I will update and post on Saturday after they are revealed, if there are any. I will also update with my wagers and what I am putting into my picks contest this weekend!
9/9/21-Week One is upon us. While all of our wagers and computer model picks will be listed later in the week, here is a little background. We breakdown our computer model into three categories. The highest is platinum. The next level is Premium. The remaining are just regular plays. Our recommendations is to play the platinum and premium plays. Yet, you can look at our data for the last few years and see that if you bet every single game based upon the computer model, you would be profitable. We started tracking our data with the 2015 season and began posting three season ago. Of course, during the 2019 season our plays were behind a pay wall for a large portion of the season. Just to give you an idea, this is how we finished last season.
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%
I said we have data for the last few season and here it is. The breakeven point for betting assuming -110 is 52.4%. As you can see, we are well above that in totality. If you were to bet $110 on every single NFL using our model, last year you would have won $14,700 on winners and lost $12,210 on losers, for a net return of $2,490.
Computer Model Record
2015-2020
Overall 797-672 54.25%
Premium 178-146 54.93%
Platinum 31-30 51.66%
Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57%
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Nothing for this week
Premium
HOU +3
MIA +3
Regular Plays
PITT +6.5
WFT -1
CAR -5
ARZ +3
ATL -3
IND +3
CIN +3
SF -7.5
KC -6
NYG +3
NO +4
CHI +7.5
BAL -4.5
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Risk free $25 wager. If it loses, you get $25 in site credit back. I tried to hit a home run with this in college by taking the Minnesota money line; I will do the same and take a live dog here as well.
$5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title.
Draft Kings
20% Boost on every single Sunday game. Honestly, if you are betting Sunday and the line is the same, you should be betting here to get the boost. That is my plan.
DK continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.
Risk free same game parlay for the NFL. Just like with most of these opt in is required. Make sure to do so. Normally Fan Duel does this only up to $10, but here DK is giving you a refund up to $25. These are things you have to try to take advantage of!
33% Parlay Boost for college football. This must be 3+ teams and no one can be greater than -500. The Max bet is $50 here.
Barstool Sportsbook
Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost. The optimal play here is to play this for max bet of $5, then turn around and bet $6 on the Rams -7.5. No matter what you turn a profit, although it is only one dollar if the Rams cover, it is much more if the Bears to keep it close.
Fox Bet
SF/BUF/SEA to all win +250
This should pay +176 so it is a boost. I think San Fran is going to be very chalky especially in money line parlays and that makes a lot of sense to me. Buffalo should beat my Steelers, but the Steelers are going to be a frisky dog. Seattle being on the road in Indy against a Colts team that has been in flux seems like a trap. I am avoiding just because of the Seahawks. Pass for me.
First Score of the Game to be a PSU TD +100 (PSU vs. Ball State)
My max bet is very small, but PSU is a 22-point favorite. I am in, backing the school that I hate.
Iowa/Texas/USC to all win Saturday +350
Iowa is a 4.5-point road dog in a rivalry game. Texas is -7.5 on the road in Arkansas. USC is a massive 17.5-point favorite against Stanford. This parlay should pay +296. While two of these seem solid with favorites that should win, be aware that books will try to squeeze a name in on these boosted parlays. I am passing. I am not taking a road dog in a boost like this.
Miami (Fla)/BYU/USC to all win +450
Just like above BYU is a 7.5-point dog. This is trying to lure you into the name BYU. This parlay should pay +372. Pass for me.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NFL
SF/LAR/KC ML Parlay +141 (FOX)
We are living in a world where the Chiefs in week one are the smallest favorite of these three and appear to be the most in jeopardy. The Browns could not beat a backup QB in the playoffs, they are not winning here.
College Football
Pitt -3.5
I know, I am awaiting Pitt to break my heart and ruin my over bet on them and for them to not win the coastal. Yet, it will not happen this week. Pitt will lose as a large home favorite, not in this spot. I am in.
Northern Illinoi +7
NI got a big road win at Georgia Tech last week after going winless last year. Wyoming struggled and should have lost at home to Montana State. I am taking the home dog after their big road win.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL
2021-2022
Computer Model
Overall 0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%
Our Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-1 50% +000
College Football
Overall 1-1 50%
Win The Weekends 