It seems like we are treading water with boosts and bets at this point. Nothing terrible is happening, but it feels like we are close. Maybe if Donovan Mitchell could not shoot 7-21 and still score 20+ point, things would turn around. All you can do when you play daily fantasy, make bets, buy investments or whatever you are doing is put yourself in a good position and hope it works out well. We cannot control everything. For every day where a player just reaches his points prop, there will be days where they just miss. The same goes for golf bets. After having a few runners finish second and hitting a live bet, we finally punched through with Collin Morikawa on Sunday. The important thing is, is the process correct. As long as your process is correct, the results will eventually follow. Some people asked me if I feel like I made a mistake if a boost comes in and I said pass. My answer is always the same, only if I made a mistake on the math. If a boost is +500 and the math says it should be +700, I do not care if it comes in. Over the long run, you cannot out run bad bets where the price is wrong. Sure, you may hit a winner at times, but the math will catch you in the long run. This is a game that never ends. I always stay within my bankroll plan, as you should too. Remember if a bet makes you nervous, scared, or anxious, you are betting too much.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
MEM -1
ATL +3.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
BOS +4
NYK -1.5
DEN +7.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
PHO +1.5
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Paul George or Jaylen Brown to score first basket +270 (FD)
I will keep avoiding these. This is more of a gamble than it is a well-researched and calculated risk.
3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Clippers/Celtics +110 (FD)
Pass. Until I can find data that shows how many threes a team attempts in this period, so that I can break this down in a meaningful way, it is the same as first basket, just a gamble.
3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Lakers/Suns +110 (FD)
See above.
Booker to score 30+ points and Suns to win +470 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. Booker to go over and the Suns to win pays +213. Booker is +152 to score 30+ points. If you parlay that over and the Suns to win, it pays +290. In this case, is three extra points worth the risk to jump to +470? I am a believer in the Suns tonight. I know that I preach not play some of these boosts unless you like the game. Well, I like this game. In fact, I really like the Suns tonight. I just worry that the pace is slow and Booker does not get there. Pass, but intrigued.
LeBron to record a triple-double and the Lakers to win +1329 (DK)
LeBron is +500 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel. If you parlay a LeBron triple-double with a Lakers win, it should pay around +1000. LeBron has three triple-doubles this year and one of those games went to overtime. Notice they keep offering LeBron triple-double odds boost and I keep saying stay away. Pass again.
Giannis and Jokic to both record a triple-double +1720 (DK)
This should pay around +1670 for them to both record a triple-double, so it is a boost. This is also a back-to-back for the Nuggets. This game has a high total and yes, both people are capable of getting there. I just cannot recommend something that has such a low likelihood of coming in. I will say Denver is better on back-to-backs than expected, but this is a pass for me.
Kawhi and Tatum 1+ dunk and 1+ Made Three for each +200 (Fox)
Kawhi is averaging two made threes and just under one dunk per game.
Tatum is averaging just under three made threes and a little over a half a dunk per game. If you add this up it is a pass. Neither player dunks consistently and that is before factoring in how bad the Celtics have been. If Jaylen Brown sits this could end up not being that competitive. Pass.
Clippers/Heat/Spurs all to win +375 (Fox)
If you parlay this on Fan Duel it pays +404. Pass on this “boost.”
Ja and Trae to both score 25+ points +600 (Fox)
Ja’s point prop is set to 19.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Trae’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
You can parlay the over on both at +239.
Trae is -154 to score 25+ points.
Ja is +225 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay them together, it should pay +436.
The Memphis game has a total of 235.5 points. Ja has been bad recently, but some of that is because Memphis has been blown out a few times. Ja has only scored 25+ points in four of 22 games. I get it that on the surface this does not seem that fantastic. However, this is an eruption spot for Ja Morant. It is a solid boost in terms of what it should pay and this is a calculated risk. Trae’s number is appropriate and I am willing to bet that Ja plays very well tonight coming off a terrible game in his last outing. I am in.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
25% Profit Boost on one College Game ($50 max bet DK)
Texas/Arkansas/Purdue to all win +210 (DK)
This should pay +183 so it is a slight boost. Man, taking Purdue, as a slight home favorite feels risky. If you like Purdue, you should play this. The other two are decently sized favorites tonight. I did kick around the idea of playing this boost, then using the 25% profit boost to bet the Wisconsin money line. It is just not a wide enough margin to make it worth the risk and turn a profit for sure. Pass for me.
WVU to lead at halftime and Baylor to win the game +770 (DK)
I mean why? This is the most bizarre boost. Baylor is -200 to win this game. This can go badly in so many ways. Pass.
NBA
PHO +1.5
I think they win.
NCAAB
I will be on something and use that boost above. I am just not sure whom yet. I will post it on Twitter later tonight.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-28 49.09%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-38 +1815
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 190-209 47.61%
Win The Weekends 