Tag: steelers

NFL Week 11 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Feels like I am close to dead in Circa several games under .500, I would need an insane run to even come close to cashing. DK is a little different as I am just a few games outside the money line. I have gone on runs like crazy before and it can happen again!

BAL -3 at PIT
The Steelers always play well against Lamar and the total is very high, surprisingly. Is there a doubt here? I mean, if the line is three or larger just take the dog when these two play. In reality, the Steelers can run the ball, and everyone can throw the ball on Baltimore. I am curious to see how the Steelers defend Lamar if their trend of slowing him down continues. Steelers in picks contests and as a bet.

JAX +13.5 at DET
Yeah, I am just taking Detroit at home against bad teams that struggle to score. The Lions coming off an awful game at home against Mac Jones. I am in. Lions in contests and as a bet. Lock this in before it jumps to -14.

GB -5 at CHI
Packers off a bye week and healthier, but the Bears might be better with a new OC. Pass for me though.

MIN -6 at TEN
Sam Darnold is tuning back into Sam Darnold. I kind of like the Titans defense at home but Will Levis still exists. Pass for me.

LVR +7 at MIA
I am not laying the points here, but I am not taking the Raiders either. Pass.

LAR -4 at NE
Have the Patriots maybe figured it out? I kind of lean New England since it seems like the Rams just can not close anything out once they get near the redzone. Pass for now, but I am happy the home dogs are back.

IND +4 at NYJ
God No. Just keep this off redzone and every tv around me.

CLE -1 at NO
A healthy Browns team against a horrendous defense that just traded their best corner. I love the Browns. Here. The saints got their one dead cat bounce, but they still have zero WR’s and can not stop anyone. Browns as a wager and in contests.

SEA +6.5 at SF
Speaking of teams who can not get in the endzone. Pass here for me.

ATL +2.5 at DEN
Kirk Cousins on the road outdoors and they cannot rush the passer. I lean Denver. The Broncos are the little brother of the Chargers, smart, physical and can run the ball. Lean Denver.

KC +2 at BUF
This became an auto bet during the playoffs last year and I stayed away a few weeks ago against the Niners. The Bills have no healthy wr and are missing Dalton Kincaid. Mahomes as a dog. Auto bet until it loses several times in a row. Chiefs in contests and as a bet.

CIN +2 at LAC
I like the unsexy team here in the Chargers. We are headed completely back to physical running football dominating along with a defense. That is the Chargers. The Bengals cannot stop anyone. Lean Chargers.

HOU -7.5 at DAL
Pass. I am not laying more than a touchdown with the Texans until healthy. Pass.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT +3 (In contests they are +3.5 in some spots, which I love of course.)
DET -13.5 (I am good up to -14 as well)
KC +2
CLE -1

KC +8/PIT +9.5 (6-point Tease DK -120

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DET -13.5MIN -5.5
LVR +7.5
IND +4
HOU -7.5


Regular Plays
WAS +4
CHI +6.5
NE +4.5
NO -1.5
PIT +3
ATL +2.5
SEA +6.5
KC +2.5
LAC -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  81-69 54%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 25-17 59.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 28-23 54.49%

My Plays
Overall  25-25 50%
Circa Millions Record 21-29 42%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-25 50%

NFL Wild Card Weekend Wagers and Computer Model Plays

The playoffs are fun, but even more so when your team is playing. I want the Steelers to play well and win of course, but I think they can. In a blizzard with 40 MPH winds anything is literally in play.

CLE -2 at HOU
The Browns defense is severely beat up and the Texans were not healthy at all during their last meeting. CJ Stroud did not even play in that previous game. There is still some injury news we are waiting on for this game, but I am leaning toward the Texans. The Browns defense has been worse on the road and with some secondary injuries popping late in the week, Cleveland may have to make changes today to prepare for tomorrow. Is this the week Joe Flacco finally turns back into Joe Flacco? I think so, if the Texans pass rush is healthy and playing. I lean Houston, but am waiting to make a wager tomorrow.

MIA +4.5 at KC
I bet the Chiefs -3.5 on Monday morning. This was before the weather news was really out there. My wager has nothing to do with weather, but more to do with the Dolphins signing people this week to play defensive end Saturday in Arrowhead. The Dolphins injuries on defense are significant and of course the weather will matter. I know it will be cold for Kansas City as well, but living in Florida and coming into this Saturday night is going to be insane. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled, but this is a wager on their defense and running game. KC -4.5.

PIT +10 at BUFF
I am completely biased, however, I think one team is much more physical. The Steelers have an identity and are a completely different team than they were just four weeks ago. TJ being out is going to hurt a ton of course, but the weather and snow is going to make this an interesting situation. Strong winds and possible blizzard conditions will make throwing difficult. Josh Allen should run the ball plenty of times. If Gabe Davis sits, the Steelers can put JPJ on Diggs and then really focus on Cooks and Allen. The Steelers middle linebackers do make me weary of them, but I think the weather neutralizes any speed advantage the Bills may have. This game will be tight and close and I hope it is Allen that needs to make a late drive and not Mason. Steelers +10.

GB +7 at DAL
Everyone seems to like the Packers and the points, but why? Green Bay’s defense was shredded by everyone not names Justin Fields and Jaren Hall. Byrce Young put up 30 points. Baker Mayfield put up 34 points. Tommy Devito put up 24 points. What is the juggernaut Dallas going to do at home? Put up points. This feels like the blowout spot of the weekend to me. Dallas will score and Jordan Love has his first playoff game jitters and the Cowboys roll. Dallas -7.

LAR +3 at DET
Last year the Giants were the week one dog we were all on and here we go again. The Rams are healthy and really have it together on offense. Since Kyren Williams returned the Rams have scored 37, 36, 31, 28, 30, and 26 points. The Lions have had just enough injuries on offense that they may struggle to score. Sean McVay clearly knows Jared Goff well and the Matt Stafford narrative is strong here. LAR +3.

PHI -3 at TB
Both teams are not good. The Eagles seems to be done and suffered another injury in their secondary. I will tentatively lean to the home dog that can throw it around. Lean TB.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
PIT +10

Regular
HOU +2.5
MIA +4.5
GB +7
LAR +3
TB +3



NFL
KC -4.5
PIT +10
DAL -7
LAR +3

Let’s Get Weird
HOU ML/KC ML/PIT ML/DAL ML/LAR ML +5000
HOU +8/KC -2.5/PIT +17.5/DAL -1.5/LAR +9.5/TB +9.5 +550

Anytime TD Parlay
Nicol Collins/Pacheco/Najee Harris/Lamb/Kyren Williams/Mike Evans +6200

NFL Computer Model
Overall 131-133 49.62%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-24 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-29 46.29%

Our Plays
Overall  24-17-2 58.53%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300