Tag: sports

NFL Week SIX Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Two years ago, it felt like every team I bet made a play when I needed it. Nothing encapsulated that like the Raiders running-back the lateral to beat the Patriots in that tie game. This year it seems like the opposite. The Bengals not covering, let alone losing outright after having three separate 10-point leads and the ball in OT needed a field goal to win. The Rams missing an extra point forcing them to go for two, instead of kicking another extra point and being down three getting 3.5 points. Oh well. These things happen. No matter what, there is always another week and it is a long season.

JAX +1 at CHI
Nope. Pass for me. I can not get the Jags correct.

CLE +9.5 at PHI
I mean, they have finally decided the Browns are terrible. The Eagles should not be favored by this many over anyone, but here we are. Pass for me.

WAS +7 at BAL
Yes, there are some +7’s still out there. This really feels like the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The Ravens never cover big numbers. The Commanders keep winning games despite expectations. Neither team can defend the pass. Lean Washington.

HOU -7 at NE
This is where I live. The worst team in the NFL starting a rookie QB making his first career start. SIGN ME UP. Seriously, this is a home dog getting a touchdown. We bet numbers at times, not teams. Houston will be without their best WR and it appears Joe Mixon again. I expect the Patriots to hang around and lose an ugly game. Pats in contest and as a wager.


ARZ +5.5 at GB
Despite last week, I believe the Cardinals are bad. The Packers are slowly getting healthy and can exploit the Cardinals terrible defense. If the Niners had a kicker last week, this number is closer to seven points. Packers in contests and as a wager.

TB -3.5 at NO
No way. Not all home dogs starting a rookie QB are the same. Pass.

IND +3 at TEN
This line makes zero sense. Pass.

PIT -3 at LVR
I am abstaining for the Steelers on the road here. Too many injuries that continue to add up are a massive problem for Pittsburgh. Pass.

LAC -3 at DEN
Ohhhhh boy do I want to take the home dog here. Pass. I am not sure what either of these teams are.

ATL -6 at CAR
I am not laying six with Kirk Cousins on the road at 1 PM. I am also not taking the Panthers getting six at home.

DET -3 at DAL
This is my most public play of the week. The Lions coming off a bye week, Dallas having played into Monday last week. The Cowboys defense can not stop the run and lost even more defenders. Detroit remembered that they have a fantastic offensive line two weeks ago against Seattle. I am on Detroit in contest and as a wager.

CIN -3.5 at NYG
What have the Bengals done to show they deserve to be a road favorite of more than three. I know, no Nabers, but I like the Giants defense a lot better than the Bengals defense. I may change but for now NYG in contests.

BUF -2.5 at NYJ
This is the last hurrah for the Jets. Josh Allen coming off his non concussion, concussion. If the Jets do not win here, it is going to be a long season. Lean NYJ, because of the defense and not an old QB who may just suck now.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +7
GB -5.5
DET -3
NYG +3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3
NO +3.5
CLE +9.5
PIT -3

Regular Plays
SEA +3.5
CHI -1.5
GB -5.5
NE +7
WAS +6.5
DEN +3
DET -3
ATL -6
NYG +3.5
BUF -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  42-34 55.26%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 13-9 59.09%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall  10-15 40%
Circa Millions Record 10-15 40%
Draft Kings Contest Record 11-14 44%

NFL Week Five Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


I feel like I am stuck in the middle here. Feels like every week there is a night game that can swing the week in a positive way, and it is not happening at this point. Oh well, we soldier on as the first quarter of the season is over. It is nice that the Circa Millions has quarter prizes as well that people can win should their season go sideways.

NYJ +2.5 at MIN (LONDON)
This is an odd one. At the start of the season, it would be for sure the Jets would be favored. Now the Jets cannot score, have a QB that cannot move at all and are somehow facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has been incredible, not to mention the play of Sam Darnold. This will be the best test for both the Minnesota offense and the Jets defense. I am firmly in the camp of the Jets are not very good. The favorites have cleaned up in Europe. The Jets have one WR and the line has struggled to protect and make running lanes. While the defense has been solid, they have only played one real team in the Niners. The Niners got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. This game is a massive coaching miss-match favoring the Vikings. I could be walking into a trap here, but Vikings in contests and as a wager.

CLE +3.5 at WAS
The Browns can not score. Washington can not be stopped. This feels like a trap. Coming off two massive road wins in a row and their third overall, this feels too easy. The Browns are getting healthier, but the QB remains. I am passing, but there is an easy argument to be made that the Commanders can get to 21 no matter what and Cleveland can not. Lean Wash, but pass for now.

BAL -2.5 at CIN
This is the most random spot that I love. Everyone watched the Ravens destroy Buffalo on Sunday night and of course we were on them. The public is all over the Ravens and thinks they are the team to beat at this point. I am going the other way. I believe the Bengals stack the box and force Lamar to throw on them, which has been a struggle at times. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has been on fire. I expect that to continue as the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Of course last week the game got away from the Bills and the Ravens played very well defensively when the Bills were one-dimensional. What happens to the Ravens if the Bengals do that to them? I expect the Bengals to score here and force the Ravens to keep up. They won’t. Bengals in contests and as a wager.

BUFF at HOU -1
This line has now flipped to Houston -1. I continue to believe Buffalo is fraudulent and only beaten bad teams. The first time they faced a real offense they got shredded. I am weary of going against Buffalo after a big loss, since I am not that into the Texans. Without Joe Mixon, the running game has been bad. Buffalo will be missing at least one key member of their offense in Shakir and at some point, a lack of weapons matters. Lean Houston but staying away for now.

CAR +4 at CHI
I hate this game. How can the Bears lay more than three points to anyone. Pass.


IND +3 at JAX
This is a must win for the Jags. I hate this game as well. I would either play the Jags or pass. No thank you.

MIA +1 at NE
I mean why? Pass.

ARZ +7 at SF
This feels like the spot you should be on the Cardinals, but San Fran back home with all their weapons feels like the better play. I am passing here.

LVR +2.5 at DEN
Again, nope. Pass here. Some of these games are terrible.

NYG +7 at SEA
The Giants appear to be without Singletary and Nabers. A team that struggles on offense loses two of their only options. Ugh, pass. Seattle is coming off a short week traveling home with a slew of defensive injuries. Pass.

GB -3.5 at LAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. Who wants to back the injured Rams here? I do! The Packer’s defense is not good and teams have thrown on them. I think the Rams will run the ball and Stafford will find the randoms he has been throwing to. Lean Rams in contests and as a wager.

DAL +2.5 at PIT
The Steelers will put JPJ on Lamb and then are worried about stopping, who? Tolbert? Ferguson? The Steelers defense lines up perfectly to attack Dallas. There will be pressure unless they stop calling holding like they did last week. Dallas’s defense will not be good, especially with their two studs out of the front seven. This feels like an old-school Steeler’s primetime spot. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NO +5.5 at KC
This feels dumb. The Chiefs are missing their RB. The Chiefs are missing their stud WR. The Chiefs are relying upon an undrafted free agent and a guy they signed off the street to play running back. Juju will matter in the Chiefs passing attack from now on. I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game by three points or so after a late field goal or Carr turnover. My god am I backing the Saints in primetime on the road in KC?! YES, I AM. Saints in contests and as a bet.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
NO +5.5
CIN +2.5
MIN -2.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
SF -7.5

Premium
MIA +1
BAL -2.5
CLE +3.5
LAR +3.5
DAL +2.5

Regular Plays
TB +2.5
MIN -2.5
CHI -4
IND +3
BUF -1
LV +3
SEA -6
NO +5.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  37-25 59.67%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 10-7 58.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-9 52.63%

My Plays
Overall  9-11 45%
Circa Millions Record 9-11
Draft Kings Contest Record 10-10

NFL Week Four Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Another chance for a 4-1 week becomes a 3-2 week because of Atlanta. The lesson here is that Atlanta is the issue, ha. Nevertheless, here we are on our search for five games against the spread. Remember I will post my contest plays on Twitter Sunday morning and hopefully posting on YouTube and Tik Tok.

PIT -1.5 at IND
This season especially, you want to be on the opposite side of the public. The Steelers are the public side here. However, the Colts have a lot more injuries than expected. The Colts offensive line contains some of those injuries. The only way the Colts win this game is by their offensive line dominating the Steelers defensive line. Anthony Richardson has a proclivity for turning the ball over and I see the Steelers defensive line winning, considering those injuries to the Colts. Teams have been able to run on the Colts. The Steelers want to run the ball. This is the game Najee Harris gets going. The Steelers always defend Lamar Jackson well and Richardson is the homeless man’s version of Lamar. Call me John Q Public as I am on the Steelers in bets and in contests.

DEN +7.5 at NYJ
I am not laying more than a TD with the Jets. This is a good spot to fade the Broncos after that win, but pass.

PHI -1.5 at TB
The Eagles are coming off a huge road win and appear to be without AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Lane Johnson. The offense was not exactly clicking with those guys. Tampa Bay played awful last weekend and this is a great spot for them to get the offense going. You can throw on the Eagles and I believe the Bucs will. I will take the small home dog here, provided the Eagles offense remains on the injury report. Bucs in contests and as a wager.

MIN +2.5 at GB
Jordan Love is coming back it appears, but the Vikings defense is very good. I am passing here.

CIN -4.5 at CAR
If the Bengals could not get a win on Monday night in a huge spot, why would we expect them to go on the road and get a win? Lean home dog Carolina, but pass for me.

JAX +6.5 at HOU
The Texans are 0-3 ATS this season despite a 2-1 record. I think everyone watched the Jags implode on Monday and who will actually tag the Jags? Professionals it appears. I am passing, because I do not like either side.

NO +2 at ATL
Both teams had their center get hurt and will not play in this game. I have no clue here. I am 1-2 wager on Falcons games and 0-1 wagering on Saints games. Maybe I should avoid these two teams.

NE +10.5 at SF
Pass. Niners will be getting some people back, but ehhh. No thanks.

LAR +3 at CHI
The professionals have hit the Bears here and driven this number all the way to +3. The Rams could have easily been blown out last week, but miraculously got a win. The Bears have some questionable coaching to say the least. Lean Bears as an offensive breakout spot but pass for now.

WAS +3.5 at ARZ
Washington is the public side here, but I am passing here. I think both defenses are bad.

KC -7 at LAC
This line has fallen and that is because of professionals betting the Chargers. I am of the belief that both starting OT’s will be out for the Chargers and someone not named Justin Herbert will be the starting QB. The Chiefs have a history of winning and not covering these games. Pass for me, too many unknowns.

CLE +1.5 at LVR
The Browns are slowly dying and of course I lost going against them during their only win of the season. The Raiders laid an egg at home last week and have a great chance to attack that Browns offense. Cleveland lost more offensive lineman to injury and they were already thin in that spot. The Raiders if nothing, can get a pass rush. I like the Raiders and if I had to make picks now, they would be my 5th team. Heavily interested in Raiders 1.5.

BUF +2.5 at BAL
This line looks suspicious. The 1-2 Ravens are favored over the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been suspect all year, but played well against Tua for a half during a Thursday night game and of course crushed the Jags on Monday. Bills have a short week and are on the road this week. I think the Ravens get it right and win this game. I am heavily interested in the Ravens as a bet and in picks contests.

TEN +1 at MIA
I have no clue here. Who is the QB for the Dolphins? Will the Titans give up another touchdown on offense? Pass.

SEA +3.5 at DET
This is not the Lions from last year. Goff has been off. Their center tore his pec and is done for the year. I had the Lions last week in Arizona and watched that entire game. The Lions of last year blow that game open and win easily. Instead, it became a sweat as that Lions offense died in the second half. They could not run it effectively and Goff was all over the place. If you look back, Goff was not great in week one. Struggled against the Bucs at home in week two, then could not shut the door on the Cardinals in week three. Provided the Seattle defense remains healthy, pending Friday practice reports, I like the Seahawks to keep this close and maybe win. Seattle in picks and as a wager.


Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
SEA +3.5
PIT -1.5TB +2
Leaning toward
BAL -2.5
LVR -1.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DAL -6
DEN +6.5
JAX +6.5
SF -10.5
CLE +2
MIA -1

Regular Plays
NO +2.5
LAR +3
GB -3
PIT -1.5
TB +2
CIN -4.5
WAS +3.5
LAC +7
BAL -2.5
SEA +3.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  28-18 60.86%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 7-4 63.63%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 7-6 53.84%

My Plays
Overall  7-8 46.66%

NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The computer has been on fire after two weeks, I have not. I knew last week would be wonky, but not that strange. With two weeks, we have a little more information on all these teams and hopefully we can profit off of it this weekend! As always, I am looking to find five games I like for the Circa Millions picks contest.

LAC +1.5 at PIT
A team has an old resurgent running back, a banged up QB and zero weapons, and is on the road against the best defense in the NFL and bare barely a dog. I get the argument of Herbert is better than Fields, but this is a strength-on-strength game. I am not impressed with the Chargers at this point and the Steelers win in Atlanta looks even better now. Fields ability to run has been the item that keeps this offense moving into field goal range and I think that occurs again. Notice I did not say touchdowns, but in this game 17 points may be more than enough. I like the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +1.5 at IND
I hate both these teams. Neither team can stop the run. Both teams have young fun QB’s. The Bears offensive line is atrocious, and I think that will be the difference. I am hopeful the Colts figure somethings out here and run the ball successfully. Lean Indy.

HOU -2 at MIN
This is the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. This number has come down as professionals are on the Vikings. Despite being 2-0, something feels off with the Texans. I think they will figure it out. Are the Vikings really headed to 3-0? Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing extremely well and the Texans have struggled on the road. Lean Vikings.

NYG +6.5 at CLE
It seems like the Giants are the correct side here. It feels impossible to take Daniel Jones on the road against a good defense. Pass for now, but lean NYG.

PHI +3 at NO
This is the game with the biggest week-to-week spread change. If I told you this was the spread two weeks again you would have assumed that Jalen Hurts was out, and Kenny Pickett was leading the Eagles. I do not know what to make of this game. I do not trust the Saints and think the Eagles have to be better. Yet, the Eagles are all over the place and feel headed for a coaching change in a few months. Pass.

DEN +6.5 at TB
Nope. I am not laying almost a TD with the Bucs. Maybe Denver is better than they have shown losing to Seattle and Pittsburgh, but I am not wagering to find out. Pass.

GB +2 at TEN
Ready to get weird? If Jordan Love is ruled out, I am all about the Titans here. In both of their first two games the Titans defense was solid. They only lost to the Bears because Will Levis made some real choices on protecting the ball. The Titans should have had more points last week as well, but Levis went full Levis again. Titans could easily be 2-0 ATS. The Packers did the best they could to win will Malik Willis last week and had to hold on, despite very little offense. I think the Titans defense will completely shut him down. Titans as a wager and leaning toward contests too. If Love plays, I am out though.

CAR +5 at LVR
Nope. I know the Panthers are the correct side here, but I can not do it. Pass for me.

MIA +4.5 at SEA
Pass. Seattle has not covered either game as a favorite this year. This line is obviously inflated, but I am passing.

DET -3 at ARZ
The Lions dominated last week but had no points to show for it. The Cardinal’s defense was supposed to be bad, and the Bills scored a bunch of points, but the Rams without both starting WR’s and missing four offensive-line starters struggled, go figure. This is a get right spot for the Lions. If Detroit cannot score 28+ this weekend, they are not who we thought they were. Arizona comes back down to Earth here and will see the Lions pass rush get home. Lions as a bet and in picks contest.

BAL -1 at DAL
Pass. I have no clue here. Are the Ravens really going to be 0-3, seems unlikely. Is Dallas as bad as they looked last week, also impossible. Dallas’s pass rush could dominate this terrible Ravens line, but I am skeptical all around. I am out.

SF -7 at LAR
I want to take the Rams so badly. This is still Brock Purdy on the road laying a touchdown, without CMC and Deebo. The Rams are so beat up it is comical. Pass.

KC -3.5 at ATL
The Chiefs have won both their first two games, but they have come down to the wire. I am not thinking of backing Kirk Cousins in primetime, am I? Oh baby, I am. The Chiefs have no running back now. Travis Kelce has slowed down. This feels like a spot the Chiefs start slowly and win a close game. I am taking the home dog getting more than a field goal. Falcons in bets and contests at +3.5.

Jags +5.5 at BUFF
The Jags are the right side here, but I am done with them for now. I thought this offense would have weapons, but it does not appear so. Maybe that is coaching, or the QB, but either way, nope.

WAS +7.5 at CIN
Pass. This game is screaming Bengals blowout win, but are they capable? I am reluctant. We can agree the Commanders defense has been shredded by WR in the first two weeks. I am out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -1.5
DET -3
ATL +3.5
I will post my picks on Twitter/X on Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +4.5

Premium
NYJ +6.5
BAL -1
SF -7
DET -3


Regular Plays
CLE -6
GB +2
CHI +1.5
MIN +2
PHI +2.5
PIT -1.5
DEN +6.5
CAR +5.5
KC -3.5
JAX +5.5
CIN -7.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  19-11 63.33%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 5-2 71.42%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-3 62.5%

My Plays
Overall  4-6 40%

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

How disappointing is 3-2 when you start 3-1. Sadness. Anyway, I have been sick the last few days and that might explain why I am going against my model in a few spots.

LVR +8 at BAL
Ravens always struggle laying more than a touchdown. That Ravens offensive line may struggle with the Raiders pass rush. I am passing, but I am taking Baltimore in Survivor.

SF -5 at MIN
We do not make money by laying points on the road. Pass here.

NO +6 at DAL
I love the Cowboys at home. We get to bet against the Saints here, when we know the Cowboys are going to score. I am on Dallas in bets and contests.

LAC -5 at CAR
I mean, this is our second home dog getting more than a FG, but nope. You know how Tom Brady and the Pats used to break models and conventional norms, well the Panthers may do that in the opposite direction.

IND -3 at GB
I want to take the Packers so badly here, but Malik Willis exists. Pass for me.

TB +7.5 at DET
If the Buc’s defense was healthy, I would be very interested in Tampa Bay. This feels like an easy trap of taking the dog here. I wonder if the public recalls the playoff game. Pass for me.

NYJ -3.5 at TEN
On a short week you want to lay points on the road with an old man at QB? Nope, pass.

SEA -3.5 at NE
I am not laying more than a FG on the road. I am just not.

NYG +1.5 at WAS
I want to jump right back on the Giants, but I am hesitant. I think both of these teams are terrible, but the Giants have to be better than they showed. Lean Giants.

CLE +3 at JAX
The Jags came through last week for us, but could have easily won outright. With a lead they fumbled into the end zone late on Sunday. Part of adjusting and betting NFL, especially in week two is being ready to change your opinions on the fly. The Jags defense did well against the Dolphins. The Browns offense is now missing their stud TE, has a makeshift OL and yeah, their QB might just be washed. I am on the Jags -3 in contests and wagers.


LAR +1 at ARZ
The Cardinals defense was extremely and last week and gave up 14 plays of ten or more yards. I am prepping myself to take the Rams team missing three offensive line starters and no Puka. Lean Rams.

CIN +6 at KC
A year ago I would have jumped on the Bengals. Now, no Higgins, a bad offensive line and a lack of preparation to start the season seems to be plaguing the Bengals. I am leaning KC with the rest advantage, a strong defense and offense that is better than it has ever been.

PIT -2.5 at DEN
This is testing me and my Steeler love so badly. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. Lean Steelers.

CHI +6.5 at HOU
Bears may only have DJ Moore at WR and they struggled with a good defense last week. Lean Houston, but I hate betting favorites.

ATL +6.5 at PHI
Do we all recall how well Kirk Cousins performs in primetime? On the road. In Philly. The Eagles have a rest advantage. Also, Cousins was so immobile last week he took zero snaps from under center. Yes, the Eagles defense is not what it used to be, but I like them here. Eagles in contests and for a wager.

So, here we go I have three games at the moment and need to find two more for contests.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DAL -6
PHI -6.5
JAX -3

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Week 2 Baltimore

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
LAR +1

Premium
SF-6
CLE +3.5
CHI +6.5
ATL +6.5

Regular Plays
BUF +2.5
NO +6
TB +7.5
GB +3
TEN +3.5
NE +3.5
NYG +1.5
CAR +6
BAL -8
DEN +2.5
CIN +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  10-5 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-1 0%

My Plays
Overall  3-2 60%

NFL Super Bowl Wagers and Computer Model Plays

Look, the Niners are better, but there is no way I am not taking Patrick Mahomes as a dog. This is not a random week 7 game. This is the Super Bowl. We have seen this plenty of times where the teams who are used to the unusual nature of the game, longer breaks, longer halftime, more media, and a larger circus in general know how to deal with everything and prepare seem to have an edge. Is that real or perceived? Either way, Brock Purdy has not been great during the playoffs and you can argue that the Niners could have easily lost their last two games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been in control of their playoff games and seem prepared with a viable identity. I am on Kansas City for Sunday.

Of course, there are plenty of weird bets and props to wager on for the game. I have a large list; of wagers I have made. On some of these sites the boosts I can bet are significantly limited. I think you will see exactly where I have used a boost to make an insane wager because my limit is so small.

This is what I have bet, for now, I have included the location of the best prices I could find!

KC +2.5
Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -105 ESPN Bet
Purdy Over 11.5/Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards +285 ESPN Bet
Purdy Over 3.5 Rushes +125 ESPN Bet
Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushes -125 ESPN BET
Chris Jones over 0.25 Sacks +125 DK
KC +7.5/UNDER 54.5 -110 MGM
KC +7.5/UNDER 54.5/Pacheco 50+ Rushing +125 MGM
Pacheco 68+/TD/KC WIN +380 DK
Purdy 12.5+/Pacheco 50+/KC+7.5/Under 54.5 +320 DK
KC to score more points than Porzingis Sunday -140 DK
Swifty Special Mahomes 15+ Rush and 215+ Pass -140 DK
Purdy to throw an INT -120 MGM
Pacheco 54+/Purdy INT/KC+7.5/Under 55.5/Butker 5+ points +568 MGM
Pacheco 94+/Pacheco TD/KC +2.5/Purdy 15+ Rushing/Under 55.5/Purdy INT/Butker 5+ Points +6320 MGM

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium


Regular
SF -2


NFL
KC +2

NFL Computer Model
Overall 134-138 49.26%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-25 48.97%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-30 45.45%

Our Plays
Overall  28-20-2 58.33%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

NFL Wild Card Weekend Wagers and Computer Model Plays

The playoffs are fun, but even more so when your team is playing. I want the Steelers to play well and win of course, but I think they can. In a blizzard with 40 MPH winds anything is literally in play.

CLE -2 at HOU
The Browns defense is severely beat up and the Texans were not healthy at all during their last meeting. CJ Stroud did not even play in that previous game. There is still some injury news we are waiting on for this game, but I am leaning toward the Texans. The Browns defense has been worse on the road and with some secondary injuries popping late in the week, Cleveland may have to make changes today to prepare for tomorrow. Is this the week Joe Flacco finally turns back into Joe Flacco? I think so, if the Texans pass rush is healthy and playing. I lean Houston, but am waiting to make a wager tomorrow.

MIA +4.5 at KC
I bet the Chiefs -3.5 on Monday morning. This was before the weather news was really out there. My wager has nothing to do with weather, but more to do with the Dolphins signing people this week to play defensive end Saturday in Arrowhead. The Dolphins injuries on defense are significant and of course the weather will matter. I know it will be cold for Kansas City as well, but living in Florida and coming into this Saturday night is going to be insane. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled, but this is a wager on their defense and running game. KC -4.5.

PIT +10 at BUFF
I am completely biased, however, I think one team is much more physical. The Steelers have an identity and are a completely different team than they were just four weeks ago. TJ being out is going to hurt a ton of course, but the weather and snow is going to make this an interesting situation. Strong winds and possible blizzard conditions will make throwing difficult. Josh Allen should run the ball plenty of times. If Gabe Davis sits, the Steelers can put JPJ on Diggs and then really focus on Cooks and Allen. The Steelers middle linebackers do make me weary of them, but I think the weather neutralizes any speed advantage the Bills may have. This game will be tight and close and I hope it is Allen that needs to make a late drive and not Mason. Steelers +10.

GB +7 at DAL
Everyone seems to like the Packers and the points, but why? Green Bay’s defense was shredded by everyone not names Justin Fields and Jaren Hall. Byrce Young put up 30 points. Baker Mayfield put up 34 points. Tommy Devito put up 24 points. What is the juggernaut Dallas going to do at home? Put up points. This feels like the blowout spot of the weekend to me. Dallas will score and Jordan Love has his first playoff game jitters and the Cowboys roll. Dallas -7.

LAR +3 at DET
Last year the Giants were the week one dog we were all on and here we go again. The Rams are healthy and really have it together on offense. Since Kyren Williams returned the Rams have scored 37, 36, 31, 28, 30, and 26 points. The Lions have had just enough injuries on offense that they may struggle to score. Sean McVay clearly knows Jared Goff well and the Matt Stafford narrative is strong here. LAR +3.

PHI -3 at TB
Both teams are not good. The Eagles seems to be done and suffered another injury in their secondary. I will tentatively lean to the home dog that can throw it around. Lean TB.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
PIT +10

Regular
HOU +2.5
MIA +4.5
GB +7
LAR +3
TB +3



NFL
KC -4.5
PIT +10
DAL -7
LAR +3

Let’s Get Weird
HOU ML/KC ML/PIT ML/DAL ML/LAR ML +5000
HOU +8/KC -2.5/PIT +17.5/DAL -1.5/LAR +9.5/TB +9.5 +550

Anytime TD Parlay
Nicol Collins/Pacheco/Najee Harris/Lamb/Kyren Williams/Mike Evans +6200

NFL Computer Model
Overall 131-133 49.62%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-24 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-29 46.29%

Our Plays
Overall  24-17-2 58.53%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

NFL Week 15 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We have the NFL on Saturday! Nothing says family and Christmas like NFL during the Holidays!

PIT +1.5 at IND –
I am prepared to lose money on Mitch. Steelers defense appears to be healthy and the Colts struggle to stop the run. Steelers in wagers and picks contests.

NYJ +9.5 at MIA –
I am leaning Jets here with the Miami offensive line being so injured. I doubt I will get there, but I wanted to mention it.


NYG +5.5 at NO –
This line makes very little sense to me. We have watched the Saints struggle all year long. The spot is a little difficult with the Giants being on a short week and traveling. The Giants are playing better and moving the ball now. I am on the Giants in wagers and picks contests.

CHI + 3 at CLE –
This feels like a number that should be bigger. I am guessing on Sunday morning the public looks at this and then says oh the Browns are solid. Cleveland meanwhile has so many injuries, especially on the offensive line and now the immobile Joe Flacco is behind that line. I like Fields to play well and run and the Bears to be live here. Bears in wagers and contests.

HOU +3 at TEN –
Stroud is going to sit and all the sudden this is the Texans offense from last year on the road. Tennessee in bets and picks contests.

Tread Lightly –
The Rams played an OT game against Baltimore and travel home and Washington is coming off a bye week. Massive rest advantage for the Commanders>

Buffalo seems like the right spot with the narrative of Dallas struggling on the road. Yeah, the Bills secondary is still beat up and now the pass-first Cowboys come to town. I lean Dallas. I have used them in teasers already. I bet this teaser. PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2. Some how I am most worried about the Chiefs on the road despite Mitch being involved.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 4 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 5 Detroit (WIN)
Week 6 Miami (WIN)
Week 7 Seattle (WIN)
Week 8 LA Chargers (WIN)
Week 9 Cleveland (WIN)
Week 10 Dallas (WIN)
Week 11 Washington (LOSE)
Week 12 Titans (WIN)
Week 13 Pittsburgh (LOSE)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
DAL +2
SF -13.5

Regular
MIN +3.5
PIT +1.5
DEN +4.5
CHI +3
TB +3.5
HOU +3
MIA -8.5
NE +8.5
NYG +6
ATL -3
WAS +6.5
BAL -3.5
SEA +3.5



Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
PIT +1.5
TEN -3
CHI +3
NYG +5.5

6-Point NFL Teaser
PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2


College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 103-97 51.51%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 20-19 51.28%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 21-24 46.66%

Our Plays
Overall  23-13-1 63.88%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200