Tag: gambling

NFL Week 2 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I want to thank the computer for getting me off the Bears and eventually landing on the Raiders. That turned a 3-2 week in contests into a 4-1 week. In these large field contests the most important thing to have a shot to actually win is no negative weeks. If you go 3-2 every week you will be in contention, but it is extremely hard to overcome those negative weeks. This week seems to be significantly harder than last week. Once the Jags line moved to 4.5 in week one, it became a clear contest play at -2.5. Always remember line differences are not all created equally. Crossing key numbers, is obviously important. In that game specifically, we crossed a key number, had some weather concerns as well and I felt it was an auto play. Will I apply the same logic to the games this week? We shall see.

BUF -6 at NYJ
Oh man, the Jets offense played very well, and the Bills defense was shredded. We do not lay points on the road in division. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at DAL
This line has come down from 5.5 to where it is now. I do like the idea of taking the points against a team that had limited expectations to start the season. The Giants offense is not good. I may just stay away from the Giants until the make a change at QB. As a Steeler fan I saw firsthand that Russ is, well, cooked. I lean Dallas here and kind of want to stack them in DFS. The hard part about playing this in contests is the line has moved against the Cowboys. Pass, for now.

CLE +11.5 at BAL
Stop if you heard this before. The Ravens lost a heartbreaking week one game and now home in week two as double-digits favorites. That is our scenario here, and it was last year as well when the Ravens blew a 10-point lead against the Raiders and Gardner Minshew. I think the correct side here may be the Browns as this line has come down a some from the 12.5 opener. I am passing though. I am very curious how the Browns defense attacks the Ravens here.

LAR -5.5 at TEN
Last week we played the Rams -3 and happily faded the Texans offensive line. Guess what happened, the Texans could not block at all, and the Rams got constant pressure. Meanwhile the Rams offense looked, a little worse than I anticipated. Maybe I am overrating the Titans defense after their performance in Denver. I believe the Titans offense has to look better and week one was more about the Broncos defense than Cam Ward and the Tennessee offense. I am fading the Rams on the road outdoors playing in the early window. Titans in contests and as a wager at +5.5.

JAX +3.5 at CIN
I have zero feel here. The Bengals offense was shut down by the Browns defense, maybe the Jags are better, or Carolina is that bad. Pass for me.

SEA +3 at PIT
Sam Darnold on the road against what is supposed to be a good defense. I am willing to say the Steelers defense was thrown way off following an early secondary injury. Maybe that is my homer-rose-colored-glasses. I still think the Steelers are going to be better than expected and the offense looked fantastic in week one. The defense has to show up right? I am laying the points here with the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +6 at DET
This line keeps climbing. We have gone from 4.5 all the way to 6.5 in some spots.  I am not playing the Bears on a short week on the road with a rash of secondary injuries. There is a chance the Lions window has closed and they are just not what they were. Having said that I lean Lions here. If Detroit can run the ball some and push the ball into the battered Bears secondary, they should score. I’m on the Lions which are -4.5 in contests.

SF -3 at NO
This number is much higher in contests at 4.5 points. I am not laying points with Mac Jones on the road. I also do not feel comfortable taking points with the Saints due to the Niners defense. Pass.

NE +1.5 at MIA
No feel here either. In the past Miami at home in the first few weeks was always a solid bet due to weather and the sun in the stadium. But, the Dolphins feel broken. The Patriots are clearly several pieces away from being the sleeper people thought they might be. Pass for me.

CAR +6.5 at ARZ
I think both these teams are not very good. If anything, I would lean Carolina, but I have zero desire to invest in either of these teams. Pass for now.

DEN -1.5 at IND
This line started at Denver -3.5 and after week one we have seen it come down by two points. In general, it is good practice to not lay points on the road often unless Tom Brady is involved. Pass for me.

PHI -1.5 at KC
This is the weirdest line of the week by far. My model has this at Philly -3.5 for obvious reasons including Chiefs injury/suspensions and the Eagles easily winning the Super Bowl. I know the correct side should be Mahomes and the Chiefs, but I can not do it. I am ready for Hollywood Brown to score two TD’s and the Chiefs to win here, but I am staying away. Pass for me.

ATL +3.5 at MIN
This line is all over the place. The number opened at Minnesota -4.5, in the DK contest it is Minnesota -5.5 and right now the live line is Minnesota -3.5. I have concerns with J.J. McCarthy playing on short rest after having a child, later this week. The Falcons should have won or could have won I suppose on Sunday, but instead they lost another close game decided by a failing kicker. I am passing on this game as I have no feel for either team after one week.

TB +2.5 at HOU
I am all about fading the Texans this year. I have been worried about their offensive line and their new OC did not do himself any favors by how that first game went. The Texans lost their center to a high ankle sprain during the game, and he will be out again this week. The Bucs looked like they were stuck in neutral for a majority of the opener in Atlanta and they get to travel again in week two. I am not playing the Texans but lean the Bucs.

LAC -3.5 at LVR
Are the Chargers that good? Or have the Chiefs fallen off? I like home dogs, especially in divisional matchups. These two coaches faced each other in the NFC west several times. I wonder if that newly revamped Chargers offensive line can handle the Raiders pass rush. Maybe this entire division is good? Lean Raiders.

So here we are on Friday with three contests picks and two wagers already set.

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -3
TEN +5.5

Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
TEN +5.5
DET -4.5

Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. The Philly entry from last week is playing Baltimore. The Denver entry is going to play Dallas.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (Week 2)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Dallas (Week 2)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
DET -6
BUF -6
MIN -3.5
LAC -3.5


Regular Plays
CIN -3.5
NYG +5
TEN +5.5
MIA -2
NO +3
PIT -3
BAL -11.5
DEN +1.5
ARZ -6.5
PHI -1.5
TB -2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  9-9 50%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 1-2 33.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 1-2 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 2-1 66.66%
Draft Kings Contest Record 4-1 80%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100

NFL Week 1 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Finally, we are back to normalcy. I have mentioned this before, but there is something about the rhythm of life and how the years move forward that make me happy, and frankly sad. Watching your kids grow up is full of joy, but there is some longing for how they once were when they were younger. I have always used the start of the NFL as a marker of some kind, like an unofficial real start to this year. It is not a coincidence that this matches up with school starting, looking at first day pictures and reminiscing about previous first days of school and how my children have changed and grown over the years.

I have been going to Steeler games with my dad since I was six years old. I am now 43. That is 37 years of new hope, beginnings and a yearly reminder that time continues to pass. When Sunday at 1 P.M. rolls around, that just feels natural to me. We get 18 Sundays every year, where we can immerse ourselves in the NFL. I know some people like college football, but there is nothing like the NFL. Much like the passage of time, it is consistent, and I know that at 1, 4:25 and then at 8:20 there are going to be games. Maybe I just crave having a constant every week, when life can be very unpredictable. Either way, as I age, it is something to look forward to and be excited about much in the same way it was when I was a child.

Besides discussing how having the NFL back makes me feel, it is also an opportunity to make some money. A reminder that lines in contests are stagnant and will not change after they are posted. I will mention what number I bet teams at and what numbers I have in contests. Anyway, here we go!

KC -3 at LAC (Brazil)
This is Brazil (Dom Toretto voice from Fast Five)! Anytime the NFL can have a game in a location that had a horrendous field that hurt Jordan Love last year, you just have to run it back. This is being played at a different location though. The only way the Chargers could avoid having a home game with more visiting fans was to leave the continent. This year feels like the last revenge season for the Chiefs. I am not a fan of the Chargers at all. The Chargers always seem to hang around and lose these games. I know in the past it made a ton of sense to take the Chargers when they were getting 5+ against the Chiefs, but not at this number. Lean KC, but pass. The bet I actually like the best I have made on this game is Isiah Pacheco anytime TD at +165. Pass on the game.

NYG +5.5 at WAS
Washington can not replicate their 4th down success from last year, right? Regression has to hit them. This line has slowly dropped and as you can imagine the public is not lining up to wager on Russell Wilson. The Giants played the Commanders tough in both games last year, for whatever that is worth. I am going to stay away. I want to see the Giants pass rush against an extremely mobile QB.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
We now have a track record of the Bengals starting extremely slowly. To remedy this situation, the Bengals played their starter more in the preseason. Will that work? Will it matter? Can they even block for Joe Burrow? The expectations are all over the place for Cincinnati. Mine are pretty low. They have no defense, and they struggle to block. We watched a team win the Super Bowl on the strength of their offensive and defensive line. My model makes this CIN -3. I am just avoiding talking about the Browns offense in this spot. I am leaning toward the home divisional dog here. If I bet Jameis at home against the Ravens last year, I can certainly get behind Joe Flacco here. I am on CLE +5.5 as a bet and in contests.

PIT -3 at NYJ
Wait, he is not going to lay points with Mike Tomlin on the road, is he? If I had the Kool-Aid man suit, I would wear it and break through the wall saying “OH YEAHHHHHH!” I know my team and I know we should not be laying points on the road normally. However, how do the Jets block, move the ball and have anything that resembles a passing game. Yes, Garrett Wilson is good, but the Steelers secondary is going to be much improved. I believe in the Steelers defense. I believe in the Steelers offensive line. I believe the Jets are going to be very bad. If the Steelers get a lead, how will the Jets score when Just Fields must throw? Is he going to be looking to Allen Lazard or Mason Taylor? This is more of a bet against the Jets than on the Steelers. My model has the Steelers just over a 5-point favorite. I am on the Steelers -3 as a bet and -2.5 in picks contests.


ARZ -6.5 at NO
I would not feel comfortable laying this many points on the road with the Cardinals. I know what the correct side is here, and my model agrees, but man this Saints team is not good. They are going to win a game at some point this year and it may be this weekend. I am not sure I have the gumption to take the Saints. Maybe the Cardinals do take the next step and become a force in the NFC West. I am going to wait and see for now. Lean Saints, but pass for now.

TB -1.5 at ATL
 This a super fun DFS game, but I have zero clue in terms of betting. The computer likes TB a little, but them missing their starting LT is a problem. I will have this on a TV because of a Baker stack but pass in terms of contests and wagers.

CAR +3.5 at JAX
I really want to take the Panthers here. Perhaps the Jags should not be favored by more than three over anyone. There are too many unknowns in this game between the Panthers defense, and whatever the Jags do with Liam Cohen and Travis Hunter. Pass on the game, but I do like a completely under-the-radar stack with Bryce Young.

MIA +1.5 at INDY
I am not backing Daniel Jones as a favorite, nor do I feel comfortable taking the fading Dolphins. I will say the Dolphins normally start strong, then fall apart, so there is some history there, not to mention the Miami offense on turf has been fun to watch. A few years ago, they opened at the Chargers and the game was a track meet. Pass on this game though.

LVR +2.5 at NE             
Everyone seems to love the Patriots this year. Yes, they have a weak schedule and should get the “new coach bump.” However, this team was not good last year and even if adding a proven NFL head coach adds a few wins, that is not enough to compete in the AFC. I am leaning toward the Raiders here, but that also feels like I am forcing it. The computer makes the Patriots a slight favorite here. Lean Raiders.

TEN +8.5 at DEN
I am not laying, nor taking the points here. I do have Denver in some survivor contests. I need to see the new-look Titans in this one. I wish this was an afternoon game. Pass for me.

SF -1.5 at SEA
CMC popping up on the injury report is alarming and I hope we wake up Sunday morning to that Adam Schefter news dump of CMC is a full go. Computer here has SF -2, so no real advantage either way on the number. I am passing for now, but if we get news on a healthy CMC, I lean Niners. Road favorites, ugh.

DET +2.5 at GB
This line has moved after the Parsons trade. The Lions are a very public dog. I am concerned about the Packers WR room, but not ready to anoint them as the leaders of this division yet. You need to kill the king to become the king. Lean Detroit.

HOU +3 at LAR
I love the Rams. I believe Matthew Stafford is going to be fine, for now. The Rams offensive line is actually healthy, and they need to hold up against the Texan’s pass rush. The Rams pushed the Eagles to the limit last year and their defense has been solid. I am so out on Houston this year. They have one proven WR for week one since Christian Kirk is out. Their offensive line was bad last year and looks to be even worse now. I am on the Rams -3 and they are -2.5 in contests.

BAL -1.5 at BUF
The Bills being a home dog is very surprising. I am interested in watching this game, but not betting it at all. Pass.

MIN -1.5 at CHI
Another home prime time dog. I was all about the Bears here, but the model really prefers the Vikings. That might be enough to push me away from this game. I am struggling to get to five games for contest though. I lean Chicago, computer is on Vikings. Pass for now.

Here we are with three games in for contests and two more to select. I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
CLE +5.5
PIT -3 (-2.5 Contests)
LAR -3 (-2.5 Contests)

Pacheco Anytime TD +165 (Multiple sites)

Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week) WIN
Denver

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
PIT -3
DET +2.5
MIN -1.5


Regular Plays
LAC +3
TB -1.5
CLE +5.5
MIA +1
LVR +2.5
NO +6.5
WAS -5.5
CAR +3.5
DEN -8.5
SF -1.5
DET +2.5
HOU +3
BUF +1.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

My Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
Draft Kings Contest Record 0-0 0%

NFL Week 12 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Still alive in DK contest but can only win the quarterly prizes over at Circa. Either way we continue.

MIN -3.5 at CHI
Sam Darnold has turned back into a pumpkin, but the Bears coaching staff leaves a lot to be desired of. I lean Chicago, mostly because of their defense, but pass for now.

DET -7 at IND
Man, this is tempting as the Lions just come through ATS week, after week. I am passing as I am not going to lay over a TD on the road though.

NE +7.5 at MIA
This used to be the bet the home dog Dolphins spot. I lean Patriots because Drake Maye is pretty good and keeps them in games. I am skeptical of the Dolphins. Pass for now.

TB -6 at NYG
Pass. This feels like a good home dog week.

DAL +10.5 at WAS
Okay, here we go finally a game I like. Dallas on a short week travel to Washington, who is off a bye week. Massive rest advantage for the Commanders and I am going to assume they are healthier. You can score on Dallas and I am here the Commanders comeback week. Washington in contests and as a wager.

KC -11 at CAR
I am not laying this many on the road. Pass.

TEN +7.5 at HOU
Is Nico Collins playing? Then you can expect the Houston offense to be significantly better. Lean Texans.

DEN -6 at LVR
I love the Denver defense. I am in on the Broncos and already prepared to fade the teams I believe will fire their head coach and have a new QB next year. Denver in wagers and picks contests.

SF +2.5 at GB
Weird vibes out of San Francisco. Brock may be hurt, CMC looks kind of ordinary and things just are not clicking. I am heavily leaning toward the Packers here, despite the Niners coming off a loss.

ARZ +1 at SEA
The Cardinals are coming off a bye week, while Seattle had that massive comeback win against the Niners. I kind of like the Cardinals a lot and this feels like a great spot to fade Seattle. Lean Cardinals.

PHI -3 at LAR
What a weird spread this is. Pass for me. I do not trust the Eagles on the road at all.

BAL -3 at LAC
The Ravens will not lose two in a row, right? Right? Lean Baltimore.  


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
WAS -10.5
DEN -6

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DET -7

Premium
NE +7
WAS -10.5
DEN -6

Regular Plays
PIT -3.5
MIN -3.5
TB -6
KC -11
HOU -8
SF +2
ARZ -1
PHI -2.5
LAC +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  90-74 54.87%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 29-18 61.70%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 32-24 57.14%

My Plays
Overall  28-28 50%
Circa Millions Record 24-31 43.63%
Draft Kings Contest Record 28-27 50.90%

NFL Week Eight Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Finally, the books decided to give us some much larger numbers. I think the bad teams have become very visible and known. People like me who bet a lot of dogs and see the value in them are not doing as well as those favorite bettors, aka the public. We must adjust and keep moving forward.

BAL -8 at CLE
The Ravens coming off that big MNF road win are now laying a ton of points on the road. The Browns have to better with Jameis. This number has come down as the professional side seems to be the Brown. I lean Cleveland, but I am not a fan of going against this Ravens offense right now.

TEN +11.5 at DET
Who is playing the Titans here? The case for fading Detroit is, this is a natural let down spot between the Vikings last week and the Packers next week. Tennessee can not score, nor really stop anyone. Lean Detroit, but I do not like the spot.

GB -4 at JAX
Home dogs have been getting killed. I am out on the Jags coming back from two weeks in London. The Packers are a public play, but pass for me.

IND +5 at HOU
Nope, pass.

PHI +2.5 at CIN
If the Bengals are good, they win here. I mean they have to. Right? You can throw on the Eagles, but you can run on the Bengals. I think the Bengal’s coaching staff is smart enough to know how to attack, but has screwed up enough that I am leery. I lean Bengals.

NYJ -7 at NE
Lay seven with this offense on the road? No thanks, pass.

ATL -2.5 at TB
I want to jump on the home dog with no healthy wide receivers. However, pass.

ARZ +4.5 at MIA
I was ready to be on MIA -3.5 in picks contests and will do so still. This is the perfect lay an egg spot for the Cardinals, late MNF win and now travel East to play at 1 PM Eastern. The Dolphins are healthy and will score. I remember the Cardinals can be susceptible to the pass. MIA is picks contests and as a bet.

BUF -3 at SEA
Man, I can not with Seattle. Pass.

NO+7 at LAC
This is either take the Chargers or pass. I hate this game too.

KC -9.5 at LVR
I am not going to do it and take the Raiders. I am not laying double digits on the road, or close to it. Pass.

CAR +11 at DEN
In most picks contests this is -9.5 and I am highly interested in Denver. No one is playing Carolina anymore. The Panthers are going to be +14 every week moving forward. Denver in contests.

CHI -3 at WAS
Jayden Daniels practiced Friday in a limited capacity. If Daniels sits, I will not use real money to back a Marcus Mariota team. Lean Chicago.

DAL +4 at SF
Nope. I hate both teams.

NYG +6 at PIT
I am not laying this many points with Russell Wilson. This is the Tomlin meh spot where they lose outright or struggle to win. I am going to try and stay away. Steelers do have a great matchup in this game all around.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DEN -9.5
MIA -3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
GB -4

Premium
MIN -3
DET -11
ARZ +3.5
DEN -10


Regular Plays
CIN -2.5
BAL -8.5
NE +7
TB +2.5
IND +5
NO +7
BUF -3
KC -9
WAS +3
SF -4PIT -6.5




NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  58-47 55.23%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 18-12 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 19-15 55.88%

My Plays
Overall  15-20 42.85%
Circa Millions Record 15-20 42.85%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-19 45.71%

NFL Week Seven Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I am incapable of going 4-1 or better. At least it seems that way! I seem to be 3-1 and have a night game that can push us over the top and nope. Either way, we continue on the path, and it is a long journey. I am headed to Pittsburgh for the Steeler game this weekend and it is apparently Russell Wilson time.


NE +6 at JAX (LONDON)
I am not laying the points here. I am kind of interested in the Pats ands the points, but why. Pass for now.

DET +1.5 at MIN
The Vikings coming off a bye week hosting the red hot offense of the Detroit Lions. If the Lions defense was healthy I would be all over them, but I am hesitant. I lean Detroit and the points, but I am not interested in playing the Vikings in this matchup.

PHI -3.5 at NYG
Pass. The entire division is bad.

HOU at GB -2.5
Houston is still missing Nico Collins and despite playing well in New England, CJ Stroud does have home/road splits. The Packers are secretly, slowly getting healthy. I like the Packers at home giving less than a field goal here as I continue to fade the Texans. Packers -2.5 in picks contests and as a wager.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
I am not laying this many points on the road, even if Deshaun Watson is on the other side of this game. This is the game, if the Browns do not score here then they never will. Pass for now.

TEN +9.5 at BUF
I hate laying this many points, but I am leaning that way. Have you seen Will Levis play? Oh boy, the Titans will be moving on at years end. Lean Buffalo.

SEA +3 at ATL
The Seattle defense is injured and cannot stop anyone since all of these injuries have started to mount up. I rarely have got Atlanta correct this season, but fading that Seattle defense makes sense until they get healthy and stop someone. Lean Atlanta.

MIA +3 at IND
The Dolphins coming off a bye week against the Colts, who like Seattle can not stop anyone. If Miami can not get it going this week, they are completely cooked until Tua returns. I like Miami here in contests where it is +3.5.

CAR +8 at WAS
This is a lot of points, but the Panthers can not stop anyone. Lean Washington, but the over is the play here.

LVR +7 at LAR
Pass on this game.

KC +1.5 at SF
I know we rode the Chiefs as a dog the entire playoffs. Yet, why were the Chiefs a dog in the playoffs? Oh, they took random games off during the season where they did not play well. This is Andy Reid off of a bye week, but this is also the perfect spot for the Chiefs to a drop a game. Kansas City is the public dog of the week. Lean SF.

NYJ -1.5 at PIT
My Steelers as a home dog on primetime?! I lean the Jets if anything. Sauce Gardner can take away Pickens. Leaving the immobile Russell Wilson to throw to, Van Jefferson? If the Steelers can run the ball they can win this game, but the passing game will have to make more plays without Justin Fields legs to bail them out. The Jets offensive line may collapse under pressure, but first team to 17 win here. Lean NYJ.

BAL -3.5 at TB
I am riding with the home dog here that can score points in bunches. Baltimore still struggles on defense and while they should win, I like the Bucs run stuffing abilities here and potent offense. TB +3.5 in contests and as a wager.

LAC -2.5 at ARZ
Another home primetime dog. The Cardinals are not good and without MHJ are even worse. I think this may be a good spot to back the home dog here. Are the Chargers really going to win two straight road games as short favorites? Lean ARZ.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
GB -2.5
TB +3.5
MIA +3.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
WAS -7.5

Premium
IND -3
NYG +3.5
PIT +1.5
TB +3.5


Regular Plays
NO +3
NE +5.5
ATL -3
BUF -8.5
CIN -5.5
GB -2.5
DET +1.5
LVR +7
KC +1.5
LAC -2



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  50-40 55.55%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 16-10 61.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-13 55.17%

My Plays
Overall 13-17 43.33%
Circa Millions Record 13-17 43.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 14-16 46.66%

NFL Week Five Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


I feel like I am stuck in the middle here. Feels like every week there is a night game that can swing the week in a positive way, and it is not happening at this point. Oh well, we soldier on as the first quarter of the season is over. It is nice that the Circa Millions has quarter prizes as well that people can win should their season go sideways.

NYJ +2.5 at MIN (LONDON)
This is an odd one. At the start of the season, it would be for sure the Jets would be favored. Now the Jets cannot score, have a QB that cannot move at all and are somehow facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has been incredible, not to mention the play of Sam Darnold. This will be the best test for both the Minnesota offense and the Jets defense. I am firmly in the camp of the Jets are not very good. The favorites have cleaned up in Europe. The Jets have one WR and the line has struggled to protect and make running lanes. While the defense has been solid, they have only played one real team in the Niners. The Niners got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. This game is a massive coaching miss-match favoring the Vikings. I could be walking into a trap here, but Vikings in contests and as a wager.

CLE +3.5 at WAS
The Browns can not score. Washington can not be stopped. This feels like a trap. Coming off two massive road wins in a row and their third overall, this feels too easy. The Browns are getting healthier, but the QB remains. I am passing, but there is an easy argument to be made that the Commanders can get to 21 no matter what and Cleveland can not. Lean Wash, but pass for now.

BAL -2.5 at CIN
This is the most random spot that I love. Everyone watched the Ravens destroy Buffalo on Sunday night and of course we were on them. The public is all over the Ravens and thinks they are the team to beat at this point. I am going the other way. I believe the Bengals stack the box and force Lamar to throw on them, which has been a struggle at times. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has been on fire. I expect that to continue as the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Of course last week the game got away from the Bills and the Ravens played very well defensively when the Bills were one-dimensional. What happens to the Ravens if the Bengals do that to them? I expect the Bengals to score here and force the Ravens to keep up. They won’t. Bengals in contests and as a wager.

BUFF at HOU -1
This line has now flipped to Houston -1. I continue to believe Buffalo is fraudulent and only beaten bad teams. The first time they faced a real offense they got shredded. I am weary of going against Buffalo after a big loss, since I am not that into the Texans. Without Joe Mixon, the running game has been bad. Buffalo will be missing at least one key member of their offense in Shakir and at some point, a lack of weapons matters. Lean Houston but staying away for now.

CAR +4 at CHI
I hate this game. How can the Bears lay more than three points to anyone. Pass.


IND +3 at JAX
This is a must win for the Jags. I hate this game as well. I would either play the Jags or pass. No thank you.

MIA +1 at NE
I mean why? Pass.

ARZ +7 at SF
This feels like the spot you should be on the Cardinals, but San Fran back home with all their weapons feels like the better play. I am passing here.

LVR +2.5 at DEN
Again, nope. Pass here. Some of these games are terrible.

NYG +7 at SEA
The Giants appear to be without Singletary and Nabers. A team that struggles on offense loses two of their only options. Ugh, pass. Seattle is coming off a short week traveling home with a slew of defensive injuries. Pass.

GB -3.5 at LAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. Who wants to back the injured Rams here? I do! The Packer’s defense is not good and teams have thrown on them. I think the Rams will run the ball and Stafford will find the randoms he has been throwing to. Lean Rams in contests and as a wager.

DAL +2.5 at PIT
The Steelers will put JPJ on Lamb and then are worried about stopping, who? Tolbert? Ferguson? The Steelers defense lines up perfectly to attack Dallas. There will be pressure unless they stop calling holding like they did last week. Dallas’s defense will not be good, especially with their two studs out of the front seven. This feels like an old-school Steeler’s primetime spot. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NO +5.5 at KC
This feels dumb. The Chiefs are missing their RB. The Chiefs are missing their stud WR. The Chiefs are relying upon an undrafted free agent and a guy they signed off the street to play running back. Juju will matter in the Chiefs passing attack from now on. I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game by three points or so after a late field goal or Carr turnover. My god am I backing the Saints in primetime on the road in KC?! YES, I AM. Saints in contests and as a bet.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
NO +5.5
CIN +2.5
MIN -2.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
SF -7.5

Premium
MIA +1
BAL -2.5
CLE +3.5
LAR +3.5
DAL +2.5

Regular Plays
TB +2.5
MIN -2.5
CHI -4
IND +3
BUF -1
LV +3
SEA -6
NO +5.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  37-25 59.67%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 10-7 58.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-9 52.63%

My Plays
Overall  9-11 45%
Circa Millions Record 9-11
Draft Kings Contest Record 10-10

NFL Week Four Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Another chance for a 4-1 week becomes a 3-2 week because of Atlanta. The lesson here is that Atlanta is the issue, ha. Nevertheless, here we are on our search for five games against the spread. Remember I will post my contest plays on Twitter Sunday morning and hopefully posting on YouTube and Tik Tok.

PIT -1.5 at IND
This season especially, you want to be on the opposite side of the public. The Steelers are the public side here. However, the Colts have a lot more injuries than expected. The Colts offensive line contains some of those injuries. The only way the Colts win this game is by their offensive line dominating the Steelers defensive line. Anthony Richardson has a proclivity for turning the ball over and I see the Steelers defensive line winning, considering those injuries to the Colts. Teams have been able to run on the Colts. The Steelers want to run the ball. This is the game Najee Harris gets going. The Steelers always defend Lamar Jackson well and Richardson is the homeless man’s version of Lamar. Call me John Q Public as I am on the Steelers in bets and in contests.

DEN +7.5 at NYJ
I am not laying more than a TD with the Jets. This is a good spot to fade the Broncos after that win, but pass.

PHI -1.5 at TB
The Eagles are coming off a huge road win and appear to be without AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Lane Johnson. The offense was not exactly clicking with those guys. Tampa Bay played awful last weekend and this is a great spot for them to get the offense going. You can throw on the Eagles and I believe the Bucs will. I will take the small home dog here, provided the Eagles offense remains on the injury report. Bucs in contests and as a wager.

MIN +2.5 at GB
Jordan Love is coming back it appears, but the Vikings defense is very good. I am passing here.

CIN -4.5 at CAR
If the Bengals could not get a win on Monday night in a huge spot, why would we expect them to go on the road and get a win? Lean home dog Carolina, but pass for me.

JAX +6.5 at HOU
The Texans are 0-3 ATS this season despite a 2-1 record. I think everyone watched the Jags implode on Monday and who will actually tag the Jags? Professionals it appears. I am passing, because I do not like either side.

NO +2 at ATL
Both teams had their center get hurt and will not play in this game. I have no clue here. I am 1-2 wager on Falcons games and 0-1 wagering on Saints games. Maybe I should avoid these two teams.

NE +10.5 at SF
Pass. Niners will be getting some people back, but ehhh. No thanks.

LAR +3 at CHI
The professionals have hit the Bears here and driven this number all the way to +3. The Rams could have easily been blown out last week, but miraculously got a win. The Bears have some questionable coaching to say the least. Lean Bears as an offensive breakout spot but pass for now.

WAS +3.5 at ARZ
Washington is the public side here, but I am passing here. I think both defenses are bad.

KC -7 at LAC
This line has fallen and that is because of professionals betting the Chargers. I am of the belief that both starting OT’s will be out for the Chargers and someone not named Justin Herbert will be the starting QB. The Chiefs have a history of winning and not covering these games. Pass for me, too many unknowns.

CLE +1.5 at LVR
The Browns are slowly dying and of course I lost going against them during their only win of the season. The Raiders laid an egg at home last week and have a great chance to attack that Browns offense. Cleveland lost more offensive lineman to injury and they were already thin in that spot. The Raiders if nothing, can get a pass rush. I like the Raiders and if I had to make picks now, they would be my 5th team. Heavily interested in Raiders 1.5.

BUF +2.5 at BAL
This line looks suspicious. The 1-2 Ravens are favored over the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been suspect all year, but played well against Tua for a half during a Thursday night game and of course crushed the Jags on Monday. Bills have a short week and are on the road this week. I think the Ravens get it right and win this game. I am heavily interested in the Ravens as a bet and in picks contests.

TEN +1 at MIA
I have no clue here. Who is the QB for the Dolphins? Will the Titans give up another touchdown on offense? Pass.

SEA +3.5 at DET
This is not the Lions from last year. Goff has been off. Their center tore his pec and is done for the year. I had the Lions last week in Arizona and watched that entire game. The Lions of last year blow that game open and win easily. Instead, it became a sweat as that Lions offense died in the second half. They could not run it effectively and Goff was all over the place. If you look back, Goff was not great in week one. Struggled against the Bucs at home in week two, then could not shut the door on the Cardinals in week three. Provided the Seattle defense remains healthy, pending Friday practice reports, I like the Seahawks to keep this close and maybe win. Seattle in picks and as a wager.


Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
SEA +3.5
PIT -1.5TB +2
Leaning toward
BAL -2.5
LVR -1.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DAL -6
DEN +6.5
JAX +6.5
SF -10.5
CLE +2
MIA -1

Regular Plays
NO +2.5
LAR +3
GB -3
PIT -1.5
TB +2
CIN -4.5
WAS +3.5
LAC +7
BAL -2.5
SEA +3.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  28-18 60.86%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 7-4 63.63%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 7-6 53.84%

My Plays
Overall  7-8 46.66%

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

How disappointing is 3-2 when you start 3-1. Sadness. Anyway, I have been sick the last few days and that might explain why I am going against my model in a few spots.

LVR +8 at BAL
Ravens always struggle laying more than a touchdown. That Ravens offensive line may struggle with the Raiders pass rush. I am passing, but I am taking Baltimore in Survivor.

SF -5 at MIN
We do not make money by laying points on the road. Pass here.

NO +6 at DAL
I love the Cowboys at home. We get to bet against the Saints here, when we know the Cowboys are going to score. I am on Dallas in bets and contests.

LAC -5 at CAR
I mean, this is our second home dog getting more than a FG, but nope. You know how Tom Brady and the Pats used to break models and conventional norms, well the Panthers may do that in the opposite direction.

IND -3 at GB
I want to take the Packers so badly here, but Malik Willis exists. Pass for me.

TB +7.5 at DET
If the Buc’s defense was healthy, I would be very interested in Tampa Bay. This feels like an easy trap of taking the dog here. I wonder if the public recalls the playoff game. Pass for me.

NYJ -3.5 at TEN
On a short week you want to lay points on the road with an old man at QB? Nope, pass.

SEA -3.5 at NE
I am not laying more than a FG on the road. I am just not.

NYG +1.5 at WAS
I want to jump right back on the Giants, but I am hesitant. I think both of these teams are terrible, but the Giants have to be better than they showed. Lean Giants.

CLE +3 at JAX
The Jags came through last week for us, but could have easily won outright. With a lead they fumbled into the end zone late on Sunday. Part of adjusting and betting NFL, especially in week two is being ready to change your opinions on the fly. The Jags defense did well against the Dolphins. The Browns offense is now missing their stud TE, has a makeshift OL and yeah, their QB might just be washed. I am on the Jags -3 in contests and wagers.


LAR +1 at ARZ
The Cardinals defense was extremely and last week and gave up 14 plays of ten or more yards. I am prepping myself to take the Rams team missing three offensive line starters and no Puka. Lean Rams.

CIN +6 at KC
A year ago I would have jumped on the Bengals. Now, no Higgins, a bad offensive line and a lack of preparation to start the season seems to be plaguing the Bengals. I am leaning KC with the rest advantage, a strong defense and offense that is better than it has ever been.

PIT -2.5 at DEN
This is testing me and my Steeler love so badly. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. Lean Steelers.

CHI +6.5 at HOU
Bears may only have DJ Moore at WR and they struggled with a good defense last week. Lean Houston, but I hate betting favorites.

ATL +6.5 at PHI
Do we all recall how well Kirk Cousins performs in primetime? On the road. In Philly. The Eagles have a rest advantage. Also, Cousins was so immobile last week he took zero snaps from under center. Yes, the Eagles defense is not what it used to be, but I like them here. Eagles in contests and for a wager.

So, here we go I have three games at the moment and need to find two more for contests.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DAL -6
PHI -6.5
JAX -3

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Week 2 Baltimore

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
LAR +1

Premium
SF-6
CLE +3.5
CHI +6.5
ATL +6.5

Regular Plays
BUF +2.5
NO +6
TB +7.5
GB +3
TEN +3.5
NE +3.5
NYG +1.5
CAR +6
BAL -8
DEN +2.5
CIN +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  10-5 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-1 0%

My Plays
Overall  3-2 60%

NFL Week 15 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We have the NFL on Saturday! Nothing says family and Christmas like NFL during the Holidays!

PIT +1.5 at IND –
I am prepared to lose money on Mitch. Steelers defense appears to be healthy and the Colts struggle to stop the run. Steelers in wagers and picks contests.

NYJ +9.5 at MIA –
I am leaning Jets here with the Miami offensive line being so injured. I doubt I will get there, but I wanted to mention it.


NYG +5.5 at NO –
This line makes very little sense to me. We have watched the Saints struggle all year long. The spot is a little difficult with the Giants being on a short week and traveling. The Giants are playing better and moving the ball now. I am on the Giants in wagers and picks contests.

CHI + 3 at CLE –
This feels like a number that should be bigger. I am guessing on Sunday morning the public looks at this and then says oh the Browns are solid. Cleveland meanwhile has so many injuries, especially on the offensive line and now the immobile Joe Flacco is behind that line. I like Fields to play well and run and the Bears to be live here. Bears in wagers and contests.

HOU +3 at TEN –
Stroud is going to sit and all the sudden this is the Texans offense from last year on the road. Tennessee in bets and picks contests.

Tread Lightly –
The Rams played an OT game against Baltimore and travel home and Washington is coming off a bye week. Massive rest advantage for the Commanders>

Buffalo seems like the right spot with the narrative of Dallas struggling on the road. Yeah, the Bills secondary is still beat up and now the pass-first Cowboys come to town. I lean Dallas. I have used them in teasers already. I bet this teaser. PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2. Some how I am most worried about the Chiefs on the road despite Mitch being involved.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 4 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 5 Detroit (WIN)
Week 6 Miami (WIN)
Week 7 Seattle (WIN)
Week 8 LA Chargers (WIN)
Week 9 Cleveland (WIN)
Week 10 Dallas (WIN)
Week 11 Washington (LOSE)
Week 12 Titans (WIN)
Week 13 Pittsburgh (LOSE)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
DAL +2
SF -13.5

Regular
MIN +3.5
PIT +1.5
DEN +4.5
CHI +3
TB +3.5
HOU +3
MIA -8.5
NE +8.5
NYG +6
ATL -3
WAS +6.5
BAL -3.5
SEA +3.5



Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
PIT +1.5
TEN -3
CHI +3
NYG +5.5

6-Point NFL Teaser
PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2


College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 103-97 51.51%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 20-19 51.28%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 21-24 46.66%

Our Plays
Overall  23-13-1 63.88%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200