Another 3-2 week in contests. I need a 5-0 to vault me a lot higher. Perhaps this week!

PIT +2.5 at CHI
Is it wrong if I like the Steelers more if Mason Rudolph is the QB? I am waiting here, but I need to avoid my team. Pass

NE -7 at CIN
Will Joe Burrow play? This line is all over the place and sits at +8.5 in some contests. If the number gets closer to six, then I am intrigued in contests due to the CLV. But as a bet, pass.

NYG +10.5 at DET
The Lions at home coming off a loss against a bad defense. Lions always put up points in these spots and the Giants will put up little resistance. The Packers offense has struggled recently and they put up 27 on the road in New York. Lions as a bet and in contests.

MIN +6 at GB
Passing on JJ McCarthy until he shows life. Also, not a fan of the Packer’s offense without Josh Jacobs, maybe. I am out.

SEA -13.5 at TEN
I want to take Seattle, but I always fear laying large amounts of point on the road. Pass.

INDY +3.5 at KC
Daniel Jones on the road outdoors has been an adventure. The Chiefs playing anywhere has been downright disappointing. I have no trust either way. Pass.

NYJ +13.5 at BAL
I do not trust the Ravens with Lamar looking like he does at the moment. The Jets are terrible, but at least they have an actual QB now. Lean NYJ, but pass.

CLE +3.5 at LVR
As someone who had invested in the Browns last week, I was slightly nervous when Dillion Gabriel left the game. It worked out, but yeah, the Browns offense is not good at all. Both defenses should control the game, but the Browns defense has been worse on the road. Pass for me, but there is an argument the Raiders should not be favored by more than three over anyone.

JAX -3 at ARZ
I can get a feisty home dog here? I am intrigued. The Cardinals offense came to life with Jacoby Brissett. I do not believe the Jags are good at all. Massive home win last week, time to come crashing back down to Earth. Lean Cardinals.

PHI -3.5 at DAL
The Eagles best offensive lineman is out. The Eagles have struggled to move the ball. The Dallas defense got healthier, in addition to the moves they made at the trade dead line. The Dallas offense will have to protect and move the ball against a stout Eagles defense. I like the home divisional dog here and think Dallas is getting better at the moment. Maybe the Eagles offense shows up here and reminds everyone who they are. I need to see it. Dallas as a bet and in contests.

ATL +2.5 at NO
The Falcons are missing Drake London and will have the corpse of Kirk Cousins playing QB. Did we not see this same situation at home versus the Dolphins? I think the Falcons could not move the ball at all. Lean Saints.

TB +6.5 at LAR
This line keeps bouncing between 6.5 and 7 points. The Bucs are still injured on defense. The Bucs have the stomach flu rolling through their team this week. The Ram’s defense is very good and the Rams offense will have a great chance to score in bunches here. Lean Rams.

CAR +7 at SF
Wait, why is this number so big. The model does have the exact same number, but this feels like a big adjustment from the books as the Panthers were 5.5-point favorites just two weeks ago. The Niners defense is still bad, and the Cardinals moved the ball the entire game. Lean Panthers.

 

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DAL +3.5
DET -10.5

Contest Picks
DAL +3.5
DET -10.5
CIN +8.5 (If Joe B plays)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3.5
NYJ +13.5
CLE +3.5

Regular Plays
HOU +6.5
PIT +2.5
NE -6
DET -10.5
MIN +6.5
SEA -13.5
ARZ +2.5
ATL +2
DAL +3.5
LAR  -6.5
CAR +7

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 75-90 45.45%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-16 46.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-22 42.10%

My Plays
Overall 14-14 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 32-23 58.18%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

It was nice to go 4-1 last week in the contest, which makes up for the 1-4 week a little while ago. I am sitting at 29-21 and really need to pick it up to have a chance at a top finish. This week is a special one as I am attending the Steeler game with my dad and both my children. I have been looking forward to this for some time.

For now, on to week eleven.

WAS +2.5 at MIA
Have you seen the Commanders defense? This team is exceptionally bad and this feels like a lost season in Washington. Miami had a chance to quit but now seems to be playing better. I think the Dolphins weapons will be able to move the ball and score. I have believed in the Dolphins before and that was a mistake. Lean Miami in Madrid.

CIN +5 at PIT
Nope. I was able to throw the Steelers out of picks contests last Sunday. I am staying away again. If Joe Flacco carves them up again, it is a bad sign for what we know is already a team that is not that good. Pass.

CAR +3.5 at ATL
Do we bet numbers or teams? This is an awful spot for the Falcons, coming back from an OT game in London and playing right away a few days later. The Panthers are well the Panthers. Just when I think they have an identity, they play badly, mostly at the QB position. Either way, I am out here.

TB +6.5 at BUFF
I have zero feel here. The Bucs seem too beat up to get it done, the Bills are wildly inconsistent. Pass.

HOU -6 at TEN
No one in their right mind is laying almost a touchdown with Davis Mills on the road. Having said that, I am not exactly clamoring to bet the Titans. Pass.

CHI +2.5 at MIN
I do not believe in the Bears, at all. The Bears defense has struggled all year long and I am for some reason betting on JJ McCarthy to be an efficient passer and score points. Minnesota as a bet and in picks contests.

GB -6.5 at NYG
I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. Lean Giants.

LAC -2.5 at JAX
It feels like the correct spot to take the Jags as they get healthy. The Chargers offensive line issues still remain, but for now I can not. Pass.

SEA +3.5 at LAR
I Think the Rams may be the best team in the NFC. I need to see Sam Darnold do it again on the road against a real defense before I really start to believe. I know the Rams will score here as their offense has been fantastic. Rams as a bet and in picks contests.

SF -2.5 at ARZ
No clue on either of these teams. The Niners offense is getting healthy but the defense is still dead. Pass.

BAL -7.5 at CLE
I feel like I take Cleveland in this spot every year. The Ravens and their high-powered defense come in and there is weird weather, and the Browns defense makes enough plays to win, or stay close. I am betting the Browns defense in this spot. I just hope the Browns offense does enough. Bowns as a bet and in picks contests.

KC -3.5 at DEN
I think the Chiefs are the correct side here with their defense against whatever Bo Nix is and has been. Yet, I struggle to lay the points with the Chiefs here, even coming off a bye week. Lean Kansas City.

DET +2.5 at PHI
The Lions have struggled when teams have lined up and punched them in the face, like the Vikings, Chiefs and Packers. Guess what Philly will do. Lean Eagles.

DAL -3.5 at LVR
Nope. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
LAR -3.5
CLE +7.5
MIN -2.5

Contest Picks
LAR -2.5
CLE +8.5
MIN -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
NYJ +13
TB +6.5
DET +2.5

Regular Plays
WAS +2.5
CAR +3.5
HOU -6
CHI +2.5
NYG +6
CIN +5
JAX +2.5
LAR -3.5
ARZ +3
CLE +7.5
KC -3.5
DAL-3.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 69-81 46%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-14 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-20 44.44%

My Plays
Overall 13-12 52%
Draft Kings Contest Record 29-21 58%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

We are at the halfway point of the season. Until last week, I was doing just fine in contests and with wagers. Then I went 1-4. Now, there is not a lot of margins for error at all. 3-2 needs to be the standard each at every week at a minimum in order to cash.

ATL +6.5 at IND (Germany)
I think I have not got the Falcons right this entire season. I am not going to try now. The Colt should bounce back and score, as they have every week this season. Lean Colts, but pass.

NYG +4.5 at CHI
I am in the same boat with the Giants. I think I have whiffed on them a few times. When you do not have a read stay away. However, the Giants are now missing their two best weapons, several offensive lineman and the defense is not good. Lean Bears.

Billa -8.5 at MIA
We all know the Dolphins are dead and heading for an ugly off-season. Yet, I am interested in the home divisional dog here. The Bills coming off a massive win and in for a let-down spot. You can run on Miami and we all know Buffalo wants to do that a ton. Lean Miami.

BAL -4.5 at MIN
If the Ravens are going to make a run, it starts with games like these. Baltimore should score, but have they fixed their defense? We will find out Sunday. Lean Baltimore.

CLE -2.5 at NYJ
The Browns being road favorites is hilarious. Just out of principal I want to take the Jets. Pass.

NE +2.5 at TB
The Bucs coming off a bye week, might be getting healthy. If the Bucs are healthy once we see the Friday practice report and injury designation, I would extremely interested in them. Pass, for now.

NO +5.5 at CAR
The Panthers can play defense and run the ball. They finally have an identity. Am I about to lay points with Carolina, perhaps. The Saints are clearly playing for the future and traded an offensive lineman and a wide receiver from an already putrid offense. I am heavily considering the Panthers.

JAX -1.5 at HOU
Davis Mills? Laying points on the road with the Jags? Nope. Pass.

ARZ +6.5 at SEA
Why do I think the Cardinals might not be terrible? God. Seattle is good, we know that. I am staying away here.

LAR -4.5 at SF
Speaking of teams I never get correct, the Niners. I want to play the Rams here, but I hate laying points on the road. Lean Rams.

DET -8 at WAS
This is the Lions bounce back spot, right? Right?

PIT +2.5 at LAC
I am trying to be strong. I feel like an addict coming back for a fix. I want to play my Steelers here, but really it is about the Chargers offensive line being torn to shreds and me assuming the Steelers get fast pressure. Sigh. Steelers as a bet and in picks contest.

PHI +2 at GB
The Eagles coming off a bye week against a vastly inconsistent Packers team. I am in. The Eagles have to run the ball and get pressure here, which I think they do. Eagles as a bet and in contests.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT +2.5
PHI +2

Contest Picks
PIT +2.5
PHI +2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT +2.5

Regular Plays
DEN -8.5
IND -6.5
CHI -3.5
BUF -9.5
MIN +3.5
CLE -2
NE +2.5
CAR -5.5
HOU +2
ARZ +6.5
LAR -4.5
DET -8.5
PHI +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 63-73 46.32%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-13 51.85%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-19 45.71%

My Plays
Overall 12-11 52.17%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-20 55.55%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

This is an odd week. I do not have a great feel at this point. As an adult with children, sometimes real life gets in the way.

Car +14 AT GB
I have seen the Panthers on the road. This is either play Green Bay or pass. I am leaning into pass.

DEN +2 at HOU
Is the Houston defense the best unit in this game? Both defenses should play well, but the Broncos missing a star CB matters a ton when Niko Collins is coming back. Pass.

MIN +8.5 at DET
This is basically a rookie QB on the road against a team we know will score. Lean Detroit.

ATL +5.5 at NE
I am about to give up on the Falcons. The Patriots are either very good, or playing the softest schedule ever, or perhaps both. Pass for now.

IND -3 at PIT
This has to be the Admiral Akbar spot. I am going to the game, but this line is too small. The Steelers can not stop anyone at this point. I am not playing the Steelers.

CHI -2.5 at CIN
A hurt Joe Flacco takes on a not great defense. I think this is a great DFS game, but not sure about betting. Pass.

LAC -9.5 at TEN
I am not laying over a TD on the road. Pass.

SF -3 at NYG
I am very interested in the home dog Giants here. The Niners defense is hurt, they have zero pass rush and the Giants still find a way to move the ball pretty well. Not official, but massive lean on NYG, especially at this number.

NO +14 at LAR
When a rookie QB takes over the ranges of possible outcomes have widened a great deal. He could be awful, he could be better than Spencer rattler, anything is in play. Rams or pass for me.

JAX -2.5 at LVR
Please Lord keep me away from playing the Raiders here. Brock Bowers returns and I want to play the Raiders. Check back Sunday.

KC -1.5 at BUF
I am on the Chiefs here. The Bills struggle on defense and their offense has been worse than anticipated. Chiefs are healthy and seemed to be rounding into shape. If you remove some random Mahomes picks, the Chiefs record is even better. Chiefs in contests and as a wager.

SEA -3 at WAS
Ohhhh man, I have no feel here. The easy answer is Seattle. A not completely healthy Jayden Daniels without his NO.1 WR, against a Seattle team that seems to score every week. Pass for now, but I do not want to lay points on the road all week long.

ARZ +2.5 at DAL
Nope. I will not be trapped by these two bad teams again. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
KC -1.5

Contest Picks
KC -1.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
IND -3

Premium
KC -1.5

Regular Plays
CHI -2.5
DET -8.5
CAR +14
LAC -9.5
NE -5.5
SF -2.5
HOU -1.5
JAX -3.5
LAR -14
SEA -3.5
ARZ +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 56-66 45.90%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 14-12 53.84%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-17 48.48%

My Plays
Overall 12-10 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 24-16 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

I hate to say I told you so on the Steelers, but here we are. The defense has so many problems for being the most expensive defense in the league. I hope that when my grandchildren are around and Mike Tomlin retires, the next coach is offensive minded.

I would think that when we reach week seven, we should have a better handle on who is actually good this season. However, I believe there are a few teams that are so bad that they make other teams appear to be better than they are. I am talking about you Colts. We also have some teams getting healthy and having players returning from suspension. I said yesterday, I thought the Steelers were fraudulent and here we are. I can see the Ravens coming back and winning the AFC North after beating the Steelers in week 18. Anyway, on to week seven!

LAC -3 at JAX (LONDON)
Nope. If Puka was playing, I would like the Rams. Instead, I am passing.

LV +12.5 at KC
Are the Chiefs back? Rice is returning, but this is the spot every year the Chiefs win but fail to cover. I am not laying the points here, but the Raiders without Brock Bowers are very bad. Pass for now.

MIA +2.5 at CLE
Bad weather. Miami coming north. Everyone can run the ball on the Dolphins. I believe the Browns defense is the best unit on the field and will make things very hard for the Dolphins. Cleveland in contests and as a wager. I texted a few friends earlier in the week to play Judkins rushing overs. In a day it went from 84.5 (Where I bet it) all the way to 95.5. That is a jump. Browns in everything.

NE -7 at TEN
I am not laying a TD on the road, even if the team getting points is the worst in the NFL and just fired people. Pass.

NO +5 at CHI
The Bears have not really beaten anyone. The Saints are undervalued in the eyes of the public. I am not taking Spencer Rattler on the road outdoors. Pass.

PHI -1.5 at MIN
We have a home dog coming off a bye week that is getting healthy. I think considering all the injuries, I like the Vikings defense against the Eagles. Minnesota had a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, but the defense is back. Offensively, I cannot believe I want to back Carson Wentz, if he starts. Really, I want to play the Vikings passing game against the injury-filled Eagles secondary and defense. Lean Vikings in contests and as a wager. The downside here is are the Eagles really going to lose three games in a row?

CAR -1.5 at NYJ
The Panthers are a road favorite? In this economy? Pass. This game sucks.

IND +1.5 at LAC
The Chargers are getting healthy. The Colts have a secondary that is missing a ton of players. The Cardinals threw the ball at will last week against the Colts. I think the Chargers will be able to do the same. Provided Joe Alt is back, the Chargers offense will have the time to throw and score points. Chargers as a wager and in picks contests.

NYG +7 at DEN
Oh boy I want to be on the Giants here. The broncos played in London last week and the Giants played on Thursday. This is a wonderful rest advantage spot for New York. However, it is a rookie QB on the road against a very good defense. Lean Giants.

WAS +1.5 at DAL
Dallas is now a slight home favorite as the line has just shifted. Neither team can defend here and I have no feel. Pass.

GB -6.5 at ARZ
I am not laying almost a touchdown on the road. Pass for me. I do want to mention the Packers are over-rated in the market though.

ATL +2 at SF
The Falcons coming off a massive home win now head across the country. If the Niners defense was healthy, this was an easy spot to play them. However, they are not. Man, I really want to play the Niners, but pass for now.

TB +5.5 at DET
This is the Lions get-right spot after losing in Kansas City last week. The Tampa Bay injuries keep piling up and while the Lions secondary is in tatters, the Bucs do not have anyone left to attack them. That has not mattered for Baker, but I think it catches up with them this week. Lions as a wager and in picks contests.

HOU +3 at Seattle
I hate Houston. Lean Seattle and their defense, as I expect they could throttle the Texans offensive line.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DET -5.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Contest Picks
DET -4.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT -5.5
IND +1.5
HOU +3

Regular Plays
LAR -3
NO +5
MIA +2.5
NE -7
LVR +12.5
MIN +1.5
CAR +1.5
NYG +7
WAS -2.5
GB -6.5
ATL +2
DET -5.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 46-48 48.93%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 12-8 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall 8-7 53.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 18-12 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

This is your reminder to check line movement after your contests lock their lines. There are going to be several interesting situations this week with obvious value.

GB -8.5 at CLE
The Packers are missing starters along the offensive line. The Browns defense has been very good. My only worry is will the Browns offense score here. I am willing to back the defense here and think the Browns make it ugly with their defense. CLE +8.5 in contests and as a wager.

NYJ +6.5 at TB
I do not like this game as a wager, however as a contest play I am interested. Over on DK in their contest the NYJ are listed at +7.5. This of course crosses a key number and gives you a lot of CLV. Tampa Bay will be without three starters from their planned starting offensive line. NYJ in contests only.

LAR +3.5 At PHI
I am extremely worried about the Eagles offense. The Eagles lost the Super Bowl, got a new OC, had an awful season. They then fired their OC, hired a new one and won the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore left to be the head coach of the Saints, and the Eagles offense is back in neutral. Lean Philly, but I do not like this spot.

ATL -5.5 at CAR
Pass for me. I hate laying points on the road and will not do so here. The Falcons offense feels like if they could convert some of these field goals into touchdowns, then their perception would be vastly different. I am staying away.

IND -4.5 at TEN
I would call this the Admiral Akbar game, but I am done with the Titans for now. I need to see their offense get going a little bit more before I can back them. If you add that in with the way the Titans collapse in the second half off games, I have more reservations about being on the Titans. Pass.

PIT -1.5 at NE
Nope. Done with the Steelers.

LVR +2.5 at WAS
I am out on this game as a wager. However, in contests where the Raiders are +3.5, I am interested. Jayden Daniels will not be playing and who knows if Washington has enough to score some points without their star QB. Pass on a wager, but in on Raiders in contests.

CIN +3 at MIN
Do you want to wager real money on Carson Wentz, or Jake Browning? Pass.

HOU +1.5 at JAX
The model loves the Texans. The Jags forced a bunch of turnovers last week, knocked out Joe Burrow and still lost outright and against the spread. Having said that I cannot back the Texans and their god awful offensive line. Pass for me.

NO +7.5 at Seattle
The model loves the Saints and feels like this number is several points too high. I am taking Seattle in survivor, not sure I want to take the Saints here and root against myself. This line is definitely inflated due to the perception of the Saints. Pass for me, but I could see taking the dog here.

DEN +2.5 at LAC
Maybe the Chargers are just that good? I think the Broncos defense is better than they showed last week. Pass for me.

DAL -1.5 at CHI
How can you lay points with the Cowboys here and feel good? Pass on this game.

ARZ +3 at SF
Full disclosure I bet the Niners -2.5 earlier this week. In contests the Niners are laying under a field goal as well. I really like the Niners this week no matter who the QB ends up being. SF as a wager and in contests.

KC -6 at NYG
The Chiefs will not go 0-3, but I am not betting on Kansas City to cover this number. Pass on this game.

DET +4.5 at BAL
The model also loves the Lions. The Raven’s defense is not healthy, and the new Lions offensive line was bad in week one, but much better in week two. If Goff has time the Lions will score, but not sure they can stop the Ravens at all.  I am passing on this game.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests.

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
SF -2.5
CLE +8.5

Contest Picks
SF -1.5
CLE +8.5
NYJ +7.5
LVR +3.5

Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. Yet, for week three I am using Seattle in both. Yes, this is not ideal, but this is the only week at this point I would even consider using the Seahawks. I would like to save Baltimore, Buffalo and some other teams for use later in the season. Planning to go 18 weeks is hard and of course I might be eliminated before I even get there, but we need to map it all out.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DET +4.5
NO +7.5
HOU +1.5

Premium
PIT -1.5
PHI -3.5

Regular Plays
MIA +12.5
WAS -3.5
GB -8.5
TEN +4.5
MIN -3
TB -6.5
ATL -5.5
DEN +2.5
CHI +1.5
ARZ +2.5
KC -6

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 18-15 54.54%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 4-3 57.14%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 4-3 57.14%

My Plays
Overall 3-3 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100