Tag: football

NFL Week 2 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I want to thank the computer for getting me off the Bears and eventually landing on the Raiders. That turned a 3-2 week in contests into a 4-1 week. In these large field contests the most important thing to have a shot to actually win is no negative weeks. If you go 3-2 every week you will be in contention, but it is extremely hard to overcome those negative weeks. This week seems to be significantly harder than last week. Once the Jags line moved to 4.5 in week one, it became a clear contest play at -2.5. Always remember line differences are not all created equally. Crossing key numbers, is obviously important. In that game specifically, we crossed a key number, had some weather concerns as well and I felt it was an auto play. Will I apply the same logic to the games this week? We shall see.

BUF -6 at NYJ
Oh man, the Jets offense played very well, and the Bills defense was shredded. We do not lay points on the road in division. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at DAL
This line has come down from 5.5 to where it is now. I do like the idea of taking the points against a team that had limited expectations to start the season. The Giants offense is not good. I may just stay away from the Giants until the make a change at QB. As a Steeler fan I saw firsthand that Russ is, well, cooked. I lean Dallas here and kind of want to stack them in DFS. The hard part about playing this in contests is the line has moved against the Cowboys. Pass, for now.

CLE +11.5 at BAL
Stop if you heard this before. The Ravens lost a heartbreaking week one game and now home in week two as double-digits favorites. That is our scenario here, and it was last year as well when the Ravens blew a 10-point lead against the Raiders and Gardner Minshew. I think the correct side here may be the Browns as this line has come down a some from the 12.5 opener. I am passing though. I am very curious how the Browns defense attacks the Ravens here.

LAR -5.5 at TEN
Last week we played the Rams -3 and happily faded the Texans offensive line. Guess what happened, the Texans could not block at all, and the Rams got constant pressure. Meanwhile the Rams offense looked, a little worse than I anticipated. Maybe I am overrating the Titans defense after their performance in Denver. I believe the Titans offense has to look better and week one was more about the Broncos defense than Cam Ward and the Tennessee offense. I am fading the Rams on the road outdoors playing in the early window. Titans in contests and as a wager at +5.5.

JAX +3.5 at CIN
I have zero feel here. The Bengals offense was shut down by the Browns defense, maybe the Jags are better, or Carolina is that bad. Pass for me.

SEA +3 at PIT
Sam Darnold on the road against what is supposed to be a good defense. I am willing to say the Steelers defense was thrown way off following an early secondary injury. Maybe that is my homer-rose-colored-glasses. I still think the Steelers are going to be better than expected and the offense looked fantastic in week one. The defense has to show up right? I am laying the points here with the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +6 at DET
This line keeps climbing. We have gone from 4.5 all the way to 6.5 in some spots.  I am not playing the Bears on a short week on the road with a rash of secondary injuries. There is a chance the Lions window has closed and they are just not what they were. Having said that I lean Lions here. If Detroit can run the ball some and push the ball into the battered Bears secondary, they should score. I’m on the Lions which are -4.5 in contests.

SF -3 at NO
This number is much higher in contests at 4.5 points. I am not laying points with Mac Jones on the road. I also do not feel comfortable taking points with the Saints due to the Niners defense. Pass.

NE +1.5 at MIA
No feel here either. In the past Miami at home in the first few weeks was always a solid bet due to weather and the sun in the stadium. But, the Dolphins feel broken. The Patriots are clearly several pieces away from being the sleeper people thought they might be. Pass for me.

CAR +6.5 at ARZ
I think both these teams are not very good. If anything, I would lean Carolina, but I have zero desire to invest in either of these teams. Pass for now.

DEN -1.5 at IND
This line started at Denver -3.5 and after week one we have seen it come down by two points. In general, it is good practice to not lay points on the road often unless Tom Brady is involved. Pass for me.

PHI -1.5 at KC
This is the weirdest line of the week by far. My model has this at Philly -3.5 for obvious reasons including Chiefs injury/suspensions and the Eagles easily winning the Super Bowl. I know the correct side should be Mahomes and the Chiefs, but I can not do it. I am ready for Hollywood Brown to score two TD’s and the Chiefs to win here, but I am staying away. Pass for me.

ATL +3.5 at MIN
This line is all over the place. The number opened at Minnesota -4.5, in the DK contest it is Minnesota -5.5 and right now the live line is Minnesota -3.5. I have concerns with J.J. McCarthy playing on short rest after having a child, later this week. The Falcons should have won or could have won I suppose on Sunday, but instead they lost another close game decided by a failing kicker. I am passing on this game as I have no feel for either team after one week.

TB +2.5 at HOU
I am all about fading the Texans this year. I have been worried about their offensive line and their new OC did not do himself any favors by how that first game went. The Texans lost their center to a high ankle sprain during the game, and he will be out again this week. The Bucs looked like they were stuck in neutral for a majority of the opener in Atlanta and they get to travel again in week two. I am not playing the Texans but lean the Bucs.

LAC -3.5 at LVR
Are the Chargers that good? Or have the Chiefs fallen off? I like home dogs, especially in divisional matchups. These two coaches faced each other in the NFC west several times. I wonder if that newly revamped Chargers offensive line can handle the Raiders pass rush. Maybe this entire division is good? Lean Raiders.

So here we are on Friday with three contests picks and two wagers already set.

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -3
TEN +5.5

Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
TEN +5.5
DET -4.5

Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. The Philly entry from last week is playing Baltimore. The Denver entry is going to play Dallas.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (Week 2)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Dallas (Week 2)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
DET -6
BUF -6
MIN -3.5
LAC -3.5


Regular Plays
CIN -3.5
NYG +5
TEN +5.5
MIA -2
NO +3
PIT -3
BAL -11.5
DEN +1.5
ARZ -6.5
PHI -1.5
TB -2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  9-9 50%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 1-2 33.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 1-2 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 2-1 66.66%
Draft Kings Contest Record 4-1 80%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100

NFL Week 1 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Finally, we are back to normalcy. I have mentioned this before, but there is something about the rhythm of life and how the years move forward that make me happy, and frankly sad. Watching your kids grow up is full of joy, but there is some longing for how they once were when they were younger. I have always used the start of the NFL as a marker of some kind, like an unofficial real start to this year. It is not a coincidence that this matches up with school starting, looking at first day pictures and reminiscing about previous first days of school and how my children have changed and grown over the years.

I have been going to Steeler games with my dad since I was six years old. I am now 43. That is 37 years of new hope, beginnings and a yearly reminder that time continues to pass. When Sunday at 1 P.M. rolls around, that just feels natural to me. We get 18 Sundays every year, where we can immerse ourselves in the NFL. I know some people like college football, but there is nothing like the NFL. Much like the passage of time, it is consistent, and I know that at 1, 4:25 and then at 8:20 there are going to be games. Maybe I just crave having a constant every week, when life can be very unpredictable. Either way, as I age, it is something to look forward to and be excited about much in the same way it was when I was a child.

Besides discussing how having the NFL back makes me feel, it is also an opportunity to make some money. A reminder that lines in contests are stagnant and will not change after they are posted. I will mention what number I bet teams at and what numbers I have in contests. Anyway, here we go!

KC -3 at LAC (Brazil)
This is Brazil (Dom Toretto voice from Fast Five)! Anytime the NFL can have a game in a location that had a horrendous field that hurt Jordan Love last year, you just have to run it back. This is being played at a different location though. The only way the Chargers could avoid having a home game with more visiting fans was to leave the continent. This year feels like the last revenge season for the Chiefs. I am not a fan of the Chargers at all. The Chargers always seem to hang around and lose these games. I know in the past it made a ton of sense to take the Chargers when they were getting 5+ against the Chiefs, but not at this number. Lean KC, but pass. The bet I actually like the best I have made on this game is Isiah Pacheco anytime TD at +165. Pass on the game.

NYG +5.5 at WAS
Washington can not replicate their 4th down success from last year, right? Regression has to hit them. This line has slowly dropped and as you can imagine the public is not lining up to wager on Russell Wilson. The Giants played the Commanders tough in both games last year, for whatever that is worth. I am going to stay away. I want to see the Giants pass rush against an extremely mobile QB.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
We now have a track record of the Bengals starting extremely slowly. To remedy this situation, the Bengals played their starter more in the preseason. Will that work? Will it matter? Can they even block for Joe Burrow? The expectations are all over the place for Cincinnati. Mine are pretty low. They have no defense, and they struggle to block. We watched a team win the Super Bowl on the strength of their offensive and defensive line. My model makes this CIN -3. I am just avoiding talking about the Browns offense in this spot. I am leaning toward the home divisional dog here. If I bet Jameis at home against the Ravens last year, I can certainly get behind Joe Flacco here. I am on CLE +5.5 as a bet and in contests.

PIT -3 at NYJ
Wait, he is not going to lay points with Mike Tomlin on the road, is he? If I had the Kool-Aid man suit, I would wear it and break through the wall saying “OH YEAHHHHHH!” I know my team and I know we should not be laying points on the road normally. However, how do the Jets block, move the ball and have anything that resembles a passing game. Yes, Garrett Wilson is good, but the Steelers secondary is going to be much improved. I believe in the Steelers defense. I believe in the Steelers offensive line. I believe the Jets are going to be very bad. If the Steelers get a lead, how will the Jets score when Just Fields must throw? Is he going to be looking to Allen Lazard or Mason Taylor? This is more of a bet against the Jets than on the Steelers. My model has the Steelers just over a 5-point favorite. I am on the Steelers -3 as a bet and -2.5 in picks contests.


ARZ -6.5 at NO
I would not feel comfortable laying this many points on the road with the Cardinals. I know what the correct side is here, and my model agrees, but man this Saints team is not good. They are going to win a game at some point this year and it may be this weekend. I am not sure I have the gumption to take the Saints. Maybe the Cardinals do take the next step and become a force in the NFC West. I am going to wait and see for now. Lean Saints, but pass for now.

TB -1.5 at ATL
 This a super fun DFS game, but I have zero clue in terms of betting. The computer likes TB a little, but them missing their starting LT is a problem. I will have this on a TV because of a Baker stack but pass in terms of contests and wagers.

CAR +3.5 at JAX
I really want to take the Panthers here. Perhaps the Jags should not be favored by more than three over anyone. There are too many unknowns in this game between the Panthers defense, and whatever the Jags do with Liam Cohen and Travis Hunter. Pass on the game, but I do like a completely under-the-radar stack with Bryce Young.

MIA +1.5 at INDY
I am not backing Daniel Jones as a favorite, nor do I feel comfortable taking the fading Dolphins. I will say the Dolphins normally start strong, then fall apart, so there is some history there, not to mention the Miami offense on turf has been fun to watch. A few years ago, they opened at the Chargers and the game was a track meet. Pass on this game though.

LVR +2.5 at NE             
Everyone seems to love the Patriots this year. Yes, they have a weak schedule and should get the “new coach bump.” However, this team was not good last year and even if adding a proven NFL head coach adds a few wins, that is not enough to compete in the AFC. I am leaning toward the Raiders here, but that also feels like I am forcing it. The computer makes the Patriots a slight favorite here. Lean Raiders.

TEN +8.5 at DEN
I am not laying, nor taking the points here. I do have Denver in some survivor contests. I need to see the new-look Titans in this one. I wish this was an afternoon game. Pass for me.

SF -1.5 at SEA
CMC popping up on the injury report is alarming and I hope we wake up Sunday morning to that Adam Schefter news dump of CMC is a full go. Computer here has SF -2, so no real advantage either way on the number. I am passing for now, but if we get news on a healthy CMC, I lean Niners. Road favorites, ugh.

DET +2.5 at GB
This line has moved after the Parsons trade. The Lions are a very public dog. I am concerned about the Packers WR room, but not ready to anoint them as the leaders of this division yet. You need to kill the king to become the king. Lean Detroit.

HOU +3 at LAR
I love the Rams. I believe Matthew Stafford is going to be fine, for now. The Rams offensive line is actually healthy, and they need to hold up against the Texan’s pass rush. The Rams pushed the Eagles to the limit last year and their defense has been solid. I am so out on Houston this year. They have one proven WR for week one since Christian Kirk is out. Their offensive line was bad last year and looks to be even worse now. I am on the Rams -3 and they are -2.5 in contests.

BAL -1.5 at BUF
The Bills being a home dog is very surprising. I am interested in watching this game, but not betting it at all. Pass.

MIN -1.5 at CHI
Another home prime time dog. I was all about the Bears here, but the model really prefers the Vikings. That might be enough to push me away from this game. I am struggling to get to five games for contest though. I lean Chicago, computer is on Vikings. Pass for now.

Here we are with three games in for contests and two more to select. I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
CLE +5.5
PIT -3 (-2.5 Contests)
LAR -3 (-2.5 Contests)

Pacheco Anytime TD +165 (Multiple sites)

Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week) WIN
Denver

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
PIT -3
DET +2.5
MIN -1.5


Regular Plays
LAC +3
TB -1.5
CLE +5.5
MIA +1
LVR +2.5
NO +6.5
WAS -5.5
CAR +3.5
DEN -8.5
SF -1.5
DET +2.5
HOU +3
BUF +1.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

My Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
Draft Kings Contest Record 0-0 0%

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 1

Last year sucked. I was stuck in neutral all year long. 3-2 week, followed by a 2-3 week. I hovered right around 50%, or below for most of the season. I found myself 2-2 with a night game and or late game that could have gone my way, and it never really did. In 2022, everything went right. Anytime I needed a play, or a later game, it always went my way. When I say always, I mean it happened constantly. This was highlighted by winning the Raiders game when the Patriots tried to lateral in a tied game, and it was picked and run back for a touchdown. I’m sure you have seen the highlight. I found myself on the right side of any and all variance in 2022, but the exact opposite since then.

But what really happened in my life during those two years? During the 2023 season I moved in October. Moving houses is not great for leaving a ton of time for football. In 2024, my kids travel sports schedule accelerated quite a great deal. I found myself even busier on weeknights and weekends than I had ever been before. Can I blame life for getting in the way? Sure. In reality, I just did not put the time in to be successful. That does not work in any aspect of life, let alone betting NFL sides.

Life got in the way this summer too. Due to travel and family activities, I was not able to make it to Vegas this summer and enter the Circa contest. I ran out of weeks to travel, and it became too difficult to pull off. I even bailed on a guy’s trip to Boston too. I will be back next year. This year, I am only entered in the Draft Kings $500 and $50 contests. I know it is not as exciting as the $1k entry Circa contest, but I have friends I will be cheering on to take home the top prize. (GO JEFF and JOE!) I did miss my annual Vegas trip with My dad and friend Joe. I also missed the Vegas restaurants. There is always next year! I will be thinking of Catch, Hakkasan, and Carbone until next summer and would like to try even more places!

Refocusing on this year and I feel like my schedule, especially my children’s is much more manageable. I am all set for this season. It would be fitting that I have a fantastic year, when I am not in the Circa contest, but it is a long grind.

Every week I will continue to post my bets; my contest plays and my thoughts on the slate of games. Thursday’s will be for just the Thursday game and Friday’s will be for every game. I will also mention my survivor picks, as I am in a few of those contests as well. I may not finalize my selections until later in the week but will tweet on what I decided to do. I may post those picks on TikTok and YouTube again, but we shall see. In the meantime, I have posted the computer model output since inception in 2015. 52.11% on all games and 53.13% on all premium plays over the last ten years. We have made some tweaks this year to address the platinum section that has taken a hit since 2020. Either way we are back. The NFL is finally in our lives, and we get to enjoy the next 18 weeks.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
TBD

Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week)
Denver

Computer Model Plays
Platinum

Premium

Regular
PHI -8

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Playoffs 4-9 30.76%
Overall  141-127 52.61%
Platinum 6-9 40%
Premium 42-31 57.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 48-40 54.54%

My Plays
Overall  40-41 49.38%
Circa Millions Record 40-45 47.05%
Draft Kings Contest Record 39-41 48.75%

Computer Model History 

2015-2023
Overall 1340 – 1231 52.11%
Premium 297 – 262  53.13%
Platinum 46-58 44.23%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
2021 138-146 48.59%
2022 130-147 46.93%
2023 134-139 49.08%
2024 141-127 52.61%


Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
2021 28-29 49.12%
2022 25-31 44.64% 
2023 24-25 48.97%
2024 42-31 57.53%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57 %
2021 5-9 35.71%
2022 3-5 37.5%
2023 1-5 16.66%
2024 6-9 40%

Super Bowl Computer Model Plays and My Plays

The Super Bowl is the time to bet more random props than normal. At least that is what I tell myself. Listed below is everything I have be to this point, with location.

The computer model keeps doing very well overall though!

I will post my plays in Twitter/X on Sunday morning.

My Plays and Contest Picks
Mahomes 15+ Rushing/Mahomes 6+ Rushes/KC +7.5 +100 (DK)
Mahomes 25+ Rushing/Mahomes 6+ Rushes +106 (DK)
Mahomes over 5.5 Rushing Attempts -120 (DK)
Mahomes 15+ Rushing/Mahomes 6+ Rushes/Smith over 4.5 Receptions/Smith 50+ Receiving/Butker 2+ FG Made +420 (DK)
Worthy over 6.5 Rushing Yards -110 (DK)
Worthy over 5.5 Receptions +105 (DK)
Smith Over 4.5 Receptions -105 (DK)
Smith Over 51.5 Receiving Yards -110 (DK)
Smith MVP 66/1 (MGM)
Butker over 1.5 FG made -130 (MGM)
Butker over 1.5 FG Made/Mahomes Under 0.5 INT Thrown/Hurts Anytime TD/Smith 25+ Receiving Yards +525 (MGM)
Hurts Anytime TD -110 (MGM)
Hurts Anytime TD +108 (Using a Boost Max bet $50 on Bet MGM)
Hurts Anytime TD/Mahomes Anytime TD +600 (ESPN Bet)
Hurts Anytime TD/Smith over 4.5 Receptions/Worthy over 5.5 Receptions +600 (MGM)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum

Premium


Regular Plays
PHI +1.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Playoffs 3-9 25%
Overall  140-127 52.43%
Platinum 6-9 40%
Premium 42-31 57.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 48-40 54.54%

My Plays
Overall  39-41 48.75%
Circa Millions Record 40-45 47.05%
Draft Kings Contest Record 39-41 48.75%

NFL Week 12 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Still alive in DK contest but can only win the quarterly prizes over at Circa. Either way we continue.

MIN -3.5 at CHI
Sam Darnold has turned back into a pumpkin, but the Bears coaching staff leaves a lot to be desired of. I lean Chicago, mostly because of their defense, but pass for now.

DET -7 at IND
Man, this is tempting as the Lions just come through ATS week, after week. I am passing as I am not going to lay over a TD on the road though.

NE +7.5 at MIA
This used to be the bet the home dog Dolphins spot. I lean Patriots because Drake Maye is pretty good and keeps them in games. I am skeptical of the Dolphins. Pass for now.

TB -6 at NYG
Pass. This feels like a good home dog week.

DAL +10.5 at WAS
Okay, here we go finally a game I like. Dallas on a short week travel to Washington, who is off a bye week. Massive rest advantage for the Commanders and I am going to assume they are healthier. You can score on Dallas and I am here the Commanders comeback week. Washington in contests and as a wager.

KC -11 at CAR
I am not laying this many on the road. Pass.

TEN +7.5 at HOU
Is Nico Collins playing? Then you can expect the Houston offense to be significantly better. Lean Texans.

DEN -6 at LVR
I love the Denver defense. I am in on the Broncos and already prepared to fade the teams I believe will fire their head coach and have a new QB next year. Denver in wagers and picks contests.

SF +2.5 at GB
Weird vibes out of San Francisco. Brock may be hurt, CMC looks kind of ordinary and things just are not clicking. I am heavily leaning toward the Packers here, despite the Niners coming off a loss.

ARZ +1 at SEA
The Cardinals are coming off a bye week, while Seattle had that massive comeback win against the Niners. I kind of like the Cardinals a lot and this feels like a great spot to fade Seattle. Lean Cardinals.

PHI -3 at LAR
What a weird spread this is. Pass for me. I do not trust the Eagles on the road at all.

BAL -3 at LAC
The Ravens will not lose two in a row, right? Right? Lean Baltimore.  


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
WAS -10.5
DEN -6

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DET -7

Premium
NE +7
WAS -10.5
DEN -6

Regular Plays
PIT -3.5
MIN -3.5
TB -6
KC -11
HOU -8
SF +2
ARZ -1
PHI -2.5
LAC +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  90-74 54.87%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 29-18 61.70%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 32-24 57.14%

My Plays
Overall  28-28 50%
Circa Millions Record 24-31 43.63%
Draft Kings Contest Record 28-27 50.90%

NFL Week 11 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Feels like I am close to dead in Circa several games under .500, I would need an insane run to even come close to cashing. DK is a little different as I am just a few games outside the money line. I have gone on runs like crazy before and it can happen again!

BAL -3 at PIT
The Steelers always play well against Lamar and the total is very high, surprisingly. Is there a doubt here? I mean, if the line is three or larger just take the dog when these two play. In reality, the Steelers can run the ball, and everyone can throw the ball on Baltimore. I am curious to see how the Steelers defend Lamar if their trend of slowing him down continues. Steelers in picks contests and as a bet.

JAX +13.5 at DET
Yeah, I am just taking Detroit at home against bad teams that struggle to score. The Lions coming off an awful game at home against Mac Jones. I am in. Lions in contests and as a bet. Lock this in before it jumps to -14.

GB -5 at CHI
Packers off a bye week and healthier, but the Bears might be better with a new OC. Pass for me though.

MIN -6 at TEN
Sam Darnold is tuning back into Sam Darnold. I kind of like the Titans defense at home but Will Levis still exists. Pass for me.

LVR +7 at MIA
I am not laying the points here, but I am not taking the Raiders either. Pass.

LAR -4 at NE
Have the Patriots maybe figured it out? I kind of lean New England since it seems like the Rams just can not close anything out once they get near the redzone. Pass for now, but I am happy the home dogs are back.

IND +4 at NYJ
God No. Just keep this off redzone and every tv around me.

CLE -1 at NO
A healthy Browns team against a horrendous defense that just traded their best corner. I love the Browns. Here. The saints got their one dead cat bounce, but they still have zero WR’s and can not stop anyone. Browns as a wager and in contests.

SEA +6.5 at SF
Speaking of teams who can not get in the endzone. Pass here for me.

ATL +2.5 at DEN
Kirk Cousins on the road outdoors and they cannot rush the passer. I lean Denver. The Broncos are the little brother of the Chargers, smart, physical and can run the ball. Lean Denver.

KC +2 at BUF
This became an auto bet during the playoffs last year and I stayed away a few weeks ago against the Niners. The Bills have no healthy wr and are missing Dalton Kincaid. Mahomes as a dog. Auto bet until it loses several times in a row. Chiefs in contests and as a bet.

CIN +2 at LAC
I like the unsexy team here in the Chargers. We are headed completely back to physical running football dominating along with a defense. That is the Chargers. The Bengals cannot stop anyone. Lean Chargers.

HOU -7.5 at DAL
Pass. I am not laying more than a touchdown with the Texans until healthy. Pass.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT +3 (In contests they are +3.5 in some spots, which I love of course.)
DET -13.5 (I am good up to -14 as well)
KC +2
CLE -1

KC +8/PIT +9.5 (6-point Tease DK -120

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DET -13.5MIN -5.5
LVR +7.5
IND +4
HOU -7.5


Regular Plays
WAS +4
CHI +6.5
NE +4.5
NO -1.5
PIT +3
ATL +2.5
SEA +6.5
KC +2.5
LAC -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  81-69 54%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 25-17 59.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 28-23 54.49%

My Plays
Overall  25-25 50%
Circa Millions Record 21-29 42%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-25 50%

NFL Week Ten Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I could really use a 5-0 week in contests!

NYG -6.5 at CAR (LONDON)
God no. Pass.

PIT +3 at WAS
Mike Tomlin as a dog. Check. Mike Tomlin against a rookie QB. Check. Washington has not faced a top defense besides the Bears and they barely could move the ball. I will take the physical Steelers on both sides of the ball here. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NE +6 at CHI
This is terrible again. Pass.

BUF -4 at IND
The Colts might just be bad, and the Bills keep cruising along. Stopping the run is an issue for Buffalo, are the Colts smart enough to actually pound the ball. Pass for me.

DEN +7.5 at KC
I am just not laying a bunch of points with the Chiefs. I think I have not gotten the Chiefs or their opponent, when I have wagered on or against them. Pas.

ATL -3.5 at NO
Man, I want to lean into the Saints getting the dead cat bounce. Chris Olave being out along with the Saints having no one to stretch the field is an issue. Pass for now.

SF -6 at TB
Niners off a bye week, the Bucs played a Monday Night Football overtime game. What’s that? San Fran is getting the best offensive weapon back. Oh, the Bucs still do not have any WR and lost another one? Sign me up. Niners in contests and as a wager.

MIN at JAX
In one of my contests MIN is -4. That is an obvious choice. The Jags are slowly tanking without actually tanking. Had that game finished closer to the 22-0 score as it started and this is actually a number closer to 8-9 points. Vikings in contests and as a wager. My god, here we are adjusting and taking SAM DARNOLD laying a TD on the road. What is happening.

TEN +7 at LAC
Chargers. The Titans can not score, and the Chargers beat and dominate bad teams. Chargers in contests and wagers.


PHI -7.5 at Dallas
Man, I want to take Dallas so badly, but we need to adjust to 2024. Pass on this game.

NYJ -1.5 at ARZ
Pros have moved this number toward the Jets. I am not backing Rodgers and the Jets on the road. Pass for me.

DET -3.5 at HOU
If Nico Collins is out, I am highly interested in the Lions. Lean Detroit.

MIA +1 at LAR
This is a weird number and professionals have come in on the Dolphins. The Rams get some offensive lineman back. Pass for me.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIN -7
DET -3.5

Premium
DEN +8
PHI -7


Regular Plays
BAL -6
NYG -6
CHI -6
BUF -4
NO +3.5
TB +6
PIT +3
LAC -7.5
NYJ +1
LAR -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  73-63 53.67%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-17 57.5%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-22 53.19%

My Plays
Overall  22-23 48.88%
Circa Millions Record 19-26 42.22%
Draft Kings Contest Record 22-23 48.88%

NFL Week Nine Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We had another winning week and are slowly building. Need to keep the momentum going in these contests, because it is getting late early for me.

Either way we are on to week nine!

MIA +6 at BUF
The Dolphins are not good, especially on defense. I said it was getting late early for me, but it really is for Miami. A Bills win here feels like it locks up the division in November! I think the Dolphins lack an identity, but they did run the ball well against the Bills in their first matchup. Lean Buffalo.

DEN +8 at BAL
I am not playing Bo Nix on the road against the Ravens coming off a loss. Pass.

LVR +7 at CIN
The Bengals should not be laying a touchdown to anyone. I am not backing the Raiders on the road either. Pass.

WAS -3.5 at NYG         
This is what I mean by we must adapt. I would never lay points on the road in division, but I will here. Washington is going to score, that is a fact. I do not know the Giants can stop them or score enough to keep up. WAS in contests and as a wager.

LAC -1.5 at CLE
I was all over the Browns last week and I am doing it again this week. The Chargers have struggled when they have played better teams. I am running it back here. The Browns have life and are way more fun, not to mention they can actually move the ball. I know Jameis will throw the ball to the other team three times per game, just need to hope those are dropped again like lats week. Cleveland in contests and as a wager.

DAL +3 at ATL
Are both these teams secretly bad? Pass. Dallas is not good, but the Falcons have a majority of their yards and points coming against the Bucs and bad teams.

NE +3.5 at TEN
Nope. Who cares. Keep this off all quad box options.

NO -7 at CAR
Is Derrick Carr playing? If he is I am laying the points on the road. What could go wrong. I am in agreement that the Panthers are historically bad. Saints, with Carr in contests and as a wager.


JAX +7.5 at PHI
You can only play the Eagles here. Pass for me. Jags have no offense and Philly has been all over the place, but seems to have found their identity.

CHI +1.5 at ARZ
Pass. This is a fun game, but I do not know what to make of either of these two teams coming off their last game.

DET -3 at GB     
The Lions finally play outside, and it may rain. The Packers have a question at QB as it may be Malik Willis. The Lions are the public play for sure, as this almost seems too easy. Pass for me, but I think the Packers are fraudulent.

LAR -1 at SEA
The Seattle defense is slowly getting healthy, but the offense without DK Metcalf is bad. Provided this Puka injury is not a real issue, this feels like another road division favorite I like. This is going to go so badly. I am trying to adjust and figure out this season and playing favorites now seems to be the way. Lean LAR.

IND +5.5 at MIN
I want to play the Colts so badly, but will Minnesota blitz Joe Flacco out off the field? Lean Colts.

TB +8.5 at KC
Ugh, pass. I hate laying points with the Chiefs and the Bucs have a slew of injuries.



I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
WAS -3.5
CLE +1.5
NO -7 (If Carr)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
BUF -6
WAS -3.5

Premium
HOU +2
LAC -1.5
NO -7
DEN +9
CHI +1
DET -3


Regular Plays
ATL -3
LV +7
NE +3.5
PHI -7.5
SEA +1
IND +5.5
TB +8,5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  67-54 55.37%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 21-13 61.76%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 22-17 56.41%

My Plays
Overall  20-20 50%
Circa Millions Record 18-22 45%
Draft Kings Contest Record 20-20 50%

NFL Week Eight Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Finally, the books decided to give us some much larger numbers. I think the bad teams have become very visible and known. People like me who bet a lot of dogs and see the value in them are not doing as well as those favorite bettors, aka the public. We must adjust and keep moving forward.

BAL -8 at CLE
The Ravens coming off that big MNF road win are now laying a ton of points on the road. The Browns have to better with Jameis. This number has come down as the professional side seems to be the Brown. I lean Cleveland, but I am not a fan of going against this Ravens offense right now.

TEN +11.5 at DET
Who is playing the Titans here? The case for fading Detroit is, this is a natural let down spot between the Vikings last week and the Packers next week. Tennessee can not score, nor really stop anyone. Lean Detroit, but I do not like the spot.

GB -4 at JAX
Home dogs have been getting killed. I am out on the Jags coming back from two weeks in London. The Packers are a public play, but pass for me.

IND +5 at HOU
Nope, pass.

PHI +2.5 at CIN
If the Bengals are good, they win here. I mean they have to. Right? You can throw on the Eagles, but you can run on the Bengals. I think the Bengal’s coaching staff is smart enough to know how to attack, but has screwed up enough that I am leery. I lean Bengals.

NYJ -7 at NE
Lay seven with this offense on the road? No thanks, pass.

ATL -2.5 at TB
I want to jump on the home dog with no healthy wide receivers. However, pass.

ARZ +4.5 at MIA
I was ready to be on MIA -3.5 in picks contests and will do so still. This is the perfect lay an egg spot for the Cardinals, late MNF win and now travel East to play at 1 PM Eastern. The Dolphins are healthy and will score. I remember the Cardinals can be susceptible to the pass. MIA is picks contests and as a bet.

BUF -3 at SEA
Man, I can not with Seattle. Pass.

NO+7 at LAC
This is either take the Chargers or pass. I hate this game too.

KC -9.5 at LVR
I am not going to do it and take the Raiders. I am not laying double digits on the road, or close to it. Pass.

CAR +11 at DEN
In most picks contests this is -9.5 and I am highly interested in Denver. No one is playing Carolina anymore. The Panthers are going to be +14 every week moving forward. Denver in contests.

CHI -3 at WAS
Jayden Daniels practiced Friday in a limited capacity. If Daniels sits, I will not use real money to back a Marcus Mariota team. Lean Chicago.

DAL +4 at SF
Nope. I hate both teams.

NYG +6 at PIT
I am not laying this many points with Russell Wilson. This is the Tomlin meh spot where they lose outright or struggle to win. I am going to try and stay away. Steelers do have a great matchup in this game all around.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DEN -9.5
MIA -3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
GB -4

Premium
MIN -3
DET -11
ARZ +3.5
DEN -10


Regular Plays
CIN -2.5
BAL -8.5
NE +7
TB +2.5
IND +5
NO +7
BUF -3
KC -9
WAS +3
SF -4PIT -6.5




NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  58-47 55.23%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 18-12 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 19-15 55.88%

My Plays
Overall  15-20 42.85%
Circa Millions Record 15-20 42.85%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-19 45.71%

NFL Week Seven Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I am incapable of going 4-1 or better. At least it seems that way! I seem to be 3-1 and have a night game that can push us over the top and nope. Either way, we continue on the path, and it is a long journey. I am headed to Pittsburgh for the Steeler game this weekend and it is apparently Russell Wilson time.


NE +6 at JAX (LONDON)
I am not laying the points here. I am kind of interested in the Pats ands the points, but why. Pass for now.

DET +1.5 at MIN
The Vikings coming off a bye week hosting the red hot offense of the Detroit Lions. If the Lions defense was healthy I would be all over them, but I am hesitant. I lean Detroit and the points, but I am not interested in playing the Vikings in this matchup.

PHI -3.5 at NYG
Pass. The entire division is bad.

HOU at GB -2.5
Houston is still missing Nico Collins and despite playing well in New England, CJ Stroud does have home/road splits. The Packers are secretly, slowly getting healthy. I like the Packers at home giving less than a field goal here as I continue to fade the Texans. Packers -2.5 in picks contests and as a wager.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
I am not laying this many points on the road, even if Deshaun Watson is on the other side of this game. This is the game, if the Browns do not score here then they never will. Pass for now.

TEN +9.5 at BUF
I hate laying this many points, but I am leaning that way. Have you seen Will Levis play? Oh boy, the Titans will be moving on at years end. Lean Buffalo.

SEA +3 at ATL
The Seattle defense is injured and cannot stop anyone since all of these injuries have started to mount up. I rarely have got Atlanta correct this season, but fading that Seattle defense makes sense until they get healthy and stop someone. Lean Atlanta.

MIA +3 at IND
The Dolphins coming off a bye week against the Colts, who like Seattle can not stop anyone. If Miami can not get it going this week, they are completely cooked until Tua returns. I like Miami here in contests where it is +3.5.

CAR +8 at WAS
This is a lot of points, but the Panthers can not stop anyone. Lean Washington, but the over is the play here.

LVR +7 at LAR
Pass on this game.

KC +1.5 at SF
I know we rode the Chiefs as a dog the entire playoffs. Yet, why were the Chiefs a dog in the playoffs? Oh, they took random games off during the season where they did not play well. This is Andy Reid off of a bye week, but this is also the perfect spot for the Chiefs to a drop a game. Kansas City is the public dog of the week. Lean SF.

NYJ -1.5 at PIT
My Steelers as a home dog on primetime?! I lean the Jets if anything. Sauce Gardner can take away Pickens. Leaving the immobile Russell Wilson to throw to, Van Jefferson? If the Steelers can run the ball they can win this game, but the passing game will have to make more plays without Justin Fields legs to bail them out. The Jets offensive line may collapse under pressure, but first team to 17 win here. Lean NYJ.

BAL -3.5 at TB
I am riding with the home dog here that can score points in bunches. Baltimore still struggles on defense and while they should win, I like the Bucs run stuffing abilities here and potent offense. TB +3.5 in contests and as a wager.

LAC -2.5 at ARZ
Another home primetime dog. The Cardinals are not good and without MHJ are even worse. I think this may be a good spot to back the home dog here. Are the Chargers really going to win two straight road games as short favorites? Lean ARZ.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
GB -2.5
TB +3.5
MIA +3.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
WAS -7.5

Premium
IND -3
NYG +3.5
PIT +1.5
TB +3.5


Regular Plays
NO +3
NE +5.5
ATL -3
BUF -8.5
CIN -5.5
GB -2.5
DET +1.5
LVR +7
KC +1.5
LAC -2



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  50-40 55.55%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 16-10 61.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-13 55.17%

My Plays
Overall 13-17 43.33%
Circa Millions Record 13-17 43.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 14-16 46.66%