Tag: fantasy-football

NFL Week 11 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Feels like I am close to dead in Circa several games under .500, I would need an insane run to even come close to cashing. DK is a little different as I am just a few games outside the money line. I have gone on runs like crazy before and it can happen again!

BAL -3 at PIT
The Steelers always play well against Lamar and the total is very high, surprisingly. Is there a doubt here? I mean, if the line is three or larger just take the dog when these two play. In reality, the Steelers can run the ball, and everyone can throw the ball on Baltimore. I am curious to see how the Steelers defend Lamar if their trend of slowing him down continues. Steelers in picks contests and as a bet.

JAX +13.5 at DET
Yeah, I am just taking Detroit at home against bad teams that struggle to score. The Lions coming off an awful game at home against Mac Jones. I am in. Lions in contests and as a bet. Lock this in before it jumps to -14.

GB -5 at CHI
Packers off a bye week and healthier, but the Bears might be better with a new OC. Pass for me though.

MIN -6 at TEN
Sam Darnold is tuning back into Sam Darnold. I kind of like the Titans defense at home but Will Levis still exists. Pass for me.

LVR +7 at MIA
I am not laying the points here, but I am not taking the Raiders either. Pass.

LAR -4 at NE
Have the Patriots maybe figured it out? I kind of lean New England since it seems like the Rams just can not close anything out once they get near the redzone. Pass for now, but I am happy the home dogs are back.

IND +4 at NYJ
God No. Just keep this off redzone and every tv around me.

CLE -1 at NO
A healthy Browns team against a horrendous defense that just traded their best corner. I love the Browns. Here. The saints got their one dead cat bounce, but they still have zero WR’s and can not stop anyone. Browns as a wager and in contests.

SEA +6.5 at SF
Speaking of teams who can not get in the endzone. Pass here for me.

ATL +2.5 at DEN
Kirk Cousins on the road outdoors and they cannot rush the passer. I lean Denver. The Broncos are the little brother of the Chargers, smart, physical and can run the ball. Lean Denver.

KC +2 at BUF
This became an auto bet during the playoffs last year and I stayed away a few weeks ago against the Niners. The Bills have no healthy wr and are missing Dalton Kincaid. Mahomes as a dog. Auto bet until it loses several times in a row. Chiefs in contests and as a bet.

CIN +2 at LAC
I like the unsexy team here in the Chargers. We are headed completely back to physical running football dominating along with a defense. That is the Chargers. The Bengals cannot stop anyone. Lean Chargers.

HOU -7.5 at DAL
Pass. I am not laying more than a touchdown with the Texans until healthy. Pass.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT +3 (In contests they are +3.5 in some spots, which I love of course.)
DET -13.5 (I am good up to -14 as well)
KC +2
CLE -1

KC +8/PIT +9.5 (6-point Tease DK -120

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DET -13.5MIN -5.5
LVR +7.5
IND +4
HOU -7.5


Regular Plays
WAS +4
CHI +6.5
NE +4.5
NO -1.5
PIT +3
ATL +2.5
SEA +6.5
KC +2.5
LAC -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  81-69 54%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 25-17 59.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 28-23 54.49%

My Plays
Overall  25-25 50%
Circa Millions Record 21-29 42%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-25 50%

NFL Week Nine Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We had another winning week and are slowly building. Need to keep the momentum going in these contests, because it is getting late early for me.

Either way we are on to week nine!

MIA +6 at BUF
The Dolphins are not good, especially on defense. I said it was getting late early for me, but it really is for Miami. A Bills win here feels like it locks up the division in November! I think the Dolphins lack an identity, but they did run the ball well against the Bills in their first matchup. Lean Buffalo.

DEN +8 at BAL
I am not playing Bo Nix on the road against the Ravens coming off a loss. Pass.

LVR +7 at CIN
The Bengals should not be laying a touchdown to anyone. I am not backing the Raiders on the road either. Pass.

WAS -3.5 at NYG         
This is what I mean by we must adapt. I would never lay points on the road in division, but I will here. Washington is going to score, that is a fact. I do not know the Giants can stop them or score enough to keep up. WAS in contests and as a wager.

LAC -1.5 at CLE
I was all over the Browns last week and I am doing it again this week. The Chargers have struggled when they have played better teams. I am running it back here. The Browns have life and are way more fun, not to mention they can actually move the ball. I know Jameis will throw the ball to the other team three times per game, just need to hope those are dropped again like lats week. Cleveland in contests and as a wager.

DAL +3 at ATL
Are both these teams secretly bad? Pass. Dallas is not good, but the Falcons have a majority of their yards and points coming against the Bucs and bad teams.

NE +3.5 at TEN
Nope. Who cares. Keep this off all quad box options.

NO -7 at CAR
Is Derrick Carr playing? If he is I am laying the points on the road. What could go wrong. I am in agreement that the Panthers are historically bad. Saints, with Carr in contests and as a wager.


JAX +7.5 at PHI
You can only play the Eagles here. Pass for me. Jags have no offense and Philly has been all over the place, but seems to have found their identity.

CHI +1.5 at ARZ
Pass. This is a fun game, but I do not know what to make of either of these two teams coming off their last game.

DET -3 at GB     
The Lions finally play outside, and it may rain. The Packers have a question at QB as it may be Malik Willis. The Lions are the public play for sure, as this almost seems too easy. Pass for me, but I think the Packers are fraudulent.

LAR -1 at SEA
The Seattle defense is slowly getting healthy, but the offense without DK Metcalf is bad. Provided this Puka injury is not a real issue, this feels like another road division favorite I like. This is going to go so badly. I am trying to adjust and figure out this season and playing favorites now seems to be the way. Lean LAR.

IND +5.5 at MIN
I want to play the Colts so badly, but will Minnesota blitz Joe Flacco out off the field? Lean Colts.

TB +8.5 at KC
Ugh, pass. I hate laying points with the Chiefs and the Bucs have a slew of injuries.



I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
WAS -3.5
CLE +1.5
NO -7 (If Carr)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
BUF -6
WAS -3.5

Premium
HOU +2
LAC -1.5
NO -7
DEN +9
CHI +1
DET -3


Regular Plays
ATL -3
LV +7
NE +3.5
PHI -7.5
SEA +1
IND +5.5
TB +8,5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  67-54 55.37%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 21-13 61.76%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 22-17 56.41%

My Plays
Overall  20-20 50%
Circa Millions Record 18-22 45%
Draft Kings Contest Record 20-20 50%

NFL Week SIX Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Two years ago, it felt like every team I bet made a play when I needed it. Nothing encapsulated that like the Raiders running-back the lateral to beat the Patriots in that tie game. This year it seems like the opposite. The Bengals not covering, let alone losing outright after having three separate 10-point leads and the ball in OT needed a field goal to win. The Rams missing an extra point forcing them to go for two, instead of kicking another extra point and being down three getting 3.5 points. Oh well. These things happen. No matter what, there is always another week and it is a long season.

JAX +1 at CHI
Nope. Pass for me. I can not get the Jags correct.

CLE +9.5 at PHI
I mean, they have finally decided the Browns are terrible. The Eagles should not be favored by this many over anyone, but here we are. Pass for me.

WAS +7 at BAL
Yes, there are some +7’s still out there. This really feels like the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The Ravens never cover big numbers. The Commanders keep winning games despite expectations. Neither team can defend the pass. Lean Washington.

HOU -7 at NE
This is where I live. The worst team in the NFL starting a rookie QB making his first career start. SIGN ME UP. Seriously, this is a home dog getting a touchdown. We bet numbers at times, not teams. Houston will be without their best WR and it appears Joe Mixon again. I expect the Patriots to hang around and lose an ugly game. Pats in contest and as a wager.


ARZ +5.5 at GB
Despite last week, I believe the Cardinals are bad. The Packers are slowly getting healthy and can exploit the Cardinals terrible defense. If the Niners had a kicker last week, this number is closer to seven points. Packers in contests and as a wager.

TB -3.5 at NO
No way. Not all home dogs starting a rookie QB are the same. Pass.

IND +3 at TEN
This line makes zero sense. Pass.

PIT -3 at LVR
I am abstaining for the Steelers on the road here. Too many injuries that continue to add up are a massive problem for Pittsburgh. Pass.

LAC -3 at DEN
Ohhhhh boy do I want to take the home dog here. Pass. I am not sure what either of these teams are.

ATL -6 at CAR
I am not laying six with Kirk Cousins on the road at 1 PM. I am also not taking the Panthers getting six at home.

DET -3 at DAL
This is my most public play of the week. The Lions coming off a bye week, Dallas having played into Monday last week. The Cowboys defense can not stop the run and lost even more defenders. Detroit remembered that they have a fantastic offensive line two weeks ago against Seattle. I am on Detroit in contest and as a wager.

CIN -3.5 at NYG
What have the Bengals done to show they deserve to be a road favorite of more than three. I know, no Nabers, but I like the Giants defense a lot better than the Bengals defense. I may change but for now NYG in contests.

BUF -2.5 at NYJ
This is the last hurrah for the Jets. Josh Allen coming off his non concussion, concussion. If the Jets do not win here, it is going to be a long season. Lean NYJ, because of the defense and not an old QB who may just suck now.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +7
GB -5.5
DET -3
NYG +3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3
NO +3.5
CLE +9.5
PIT -3

Regular Plays
SEA +3.5
CHI -1.5
GB -5.5
NE +7
WAS +6.5
DEN +3
DET -3
ATL -6
NYG +3.5
BUF -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  42-34 55.26%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 13-9 59.09%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall  10-15 40%
Circa Millions Record 10-15 40%
Draft Kings Contest Record 11-14 44%

NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The computer has been on fire after two weeks, I have not. I knew last week would be wonky, but not that strange. With two weeks, we have a little more information on all these teams and hopefully we can profit off of it this weekend! As always, I am looking to find five games I like for the Circa Millions picks contest.

LAC +1.5 at PIT
A team has an old resurgent running back, a banged up QB and zero weapons, and is on the road against the best defense in the NFL and bare barely a dog. I get the argument of Herbert is better than Fields, but this is a strength-on-strength game. I am not impressed with the Chargers at this point and the Steelers win in Atlanta looks even better now. Fields ability to run has been the item that keeps this offense moving into field goal range and I think that occurs again. Notice I did not say touchdowns, but in this game 17 points may be more than enough. I like the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +1.5 at IND
I hate both these teams. Neither team can stop the run. Both teams have young fun QB’s. The Bears offensive line is atrocious, and I think that will be the difference. I am hopeful the Colts figure somethings out here and run the ball successfully. Lean Indy.

HOU -2 at MIN
This is the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. This number has come down as professionals are on the Vikings. Despite being 2-0, something feels off with the Texans. I think they will figure it out. Are the Vikings really headed to 3-0? Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing extremely well and the Texans have struggled on the road. Lean Vikings.

NYG +6.5 at CLE
It seems like the Giants are the correct side here. It feels impossible to take Daniel Jones on the road against a good defense. Pass for now, but lean NYG.

PHI +3 at NO
This is the game with the biggest week-to-week spread change. If I told you this was the spread two weeks again you would have assumed that Jalen Hurts was out, and Kenny Pickett was leading the Eagles. I do not know what to make of this game. I do not trust the Saints and think the Eagles have to be better. Yet, the Eagles are all over the place and feel headed for a coaching change in a few months. Pass.

DEN +6.5 at TB
Nope. I am not laying almost a TD with the Bucs. Maybe Denver is better than they have shown losing to Seattle and Pittsburgh, but I am not wagering to find out. Pass.

GB +2 at TEN
Ready to get weird? If Jordan Love is ruled out, I am all about the Titans here. In both of their first two games the Titans defense was solid. They only lost to the Bears because Will Levis made some real choices on protecting the ball. The Titans should have had more points last week as well, but Levis went full Levis again. Titans could easily be 2-0 ATS. The Packers did the best they could to win will Malik Willis last week and had to hold on, despite very little offense. I think the Titans defense will completely shut him down. Titans as a wager and leaning toward contests too. If Love plays, I am out though.

CAR +5 at LVR
Nope. I know the Panthers are the correct side here, but I can not do it. Pass for me.

MIA +4.5 at SEA
Pass. Seattle has not covered either game as a favorite this year. This line is obviously inflated, but I am passing.

DET -3 at ARZ
The Lions dominated last week but had no points to show for it. The Cardinal’s defense was supposed to be bad, and the Bills scored a bunch of points, but the Rams without both starting WR’s and missing four offensive-line starters struggled, go figure. This is a get right spot for the Lions. If Detroit cannot score 28+ this weekend, they are not who we thought they were. Arizona comes back down to Earth here and will see the Lions pass rush get home. Lions as a bet and in picks contest.

BAL -1 at DAL
Pass. I have no clue here. Are the Ravens really going to be 0-3, seems unlikely. Is Dallas as bad as they looked last week, also impossible. Dallas’s pass rush could dominate this terrible Ravens line, but I am skeptical all around. I am out.

SF -7 at LAR
I want to take the Rams so badly. This is still Brock Purdy on the road laying a touchdown, without CMC and Deebo. The Rams are so beat up it is comical. Pass.

KC -3.5 at ATL
The Chiefs have won both their first two games, but they have come down to the wire. I am not thinking of backing Kirk Cousins in primetime, am I? Oh baby, I am. The Chiefs have no running back now. Travis Kelce has slowed down. This feels like a spot the Chiefs start slowly and win a close game. I am taking the home dog getting more than a field goal. Falcons in bets and contests at +3.5.

Jags +5.5 at BUFF
The Jags are the right side here, but I am done with them for now. I thought this offense would have weapons, but it does not appear so. Maybe that is coaching, or the QB, but either way, nope.

WAS +7.5 at CIN
Pass. This game is screaming Bengals blowout win, but are they capable? I am reluctant. We can agree the Commanders defense has been shredded by WR in the first two weeks. I am out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -1.5
DET -3
ATL +3.5
I will post my picks on Twitter/X on Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +4.5

Premium
NYJ +6.5
BAL -1
SF -7
DET -3


Regular Plays
CLE -6
GB +2
CHI +1.5
MIN +2
PHI +2.5
PIT -1.5
DEN +6.5
CAR +5.5
KC -3.5
JAX +5.5
CIN -7.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  19-11 63.33%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 5-2 71.42%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-3 62.5%

My Plays
Overall  4-6 40%