Tag: cincinnati-bengals

NFL Week Eight Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Finally, the books decided to give us some much larger numbers. I think the bad teams have become very visible and known. People like me who bet a lot of dogs and see the value in them are not doing as well as those favorite bettors, aka the public. We must adjust and keep moving forward.

BAL -8 at CLE
The Ravens coming off that big MNF road win are now laying a ton of points on the road. The Browns have to better with Jameis. This number has come down as the professional side seems to be the Brown. I lean Cleveland, but I am not a fan of going against this Ravens offense right now.

TEN +11.5 at DET
Who is playing the Titans here? The case for fading Detroit is, this is a natural let down spot between the Vikings last week and the Packers next week. Tennessee can not score, nor really stop anyone. Lean Detroit, but I do not like the spot.

GB -4 at JAX
Home dogs have been getting killed. I am out on the Jags coming back from two weeks in London. The Packers are a public play, but pass for me.

IND +5 at HOU
Nope, pass.

PHI +2.5 at CIN
If the Bengals are good, they win here. I mean they have to. Right? You can throw on the Eagles, but you can run on the Bengals. I think the Bengal’s coaching staff is smart enough to know how to attack, but has screwed up enough that I am leery. I lean Bengals.

NYJ -7 at NE
Lay seven with this offense on the road? No thanks, pass.

ATL -2.5 at TB
I want to jump on the home dog with no healthy wide receivers. However, pass.

ARZ +4.5 at MIA
I was ready to be on MIA -3.5 in picks contests and will do so still. This is the perfect lay an egg spot for the Cardinals, late MNF win and now travel East to play at 1 PM Eastern. The Dolphins are healthy and will score. I remember the Cardinals can be susceptible to the pass. MIA is picks contests and as a bet.

BUF -3 at SEA
Man, I can not with Seattle. Pass.

NO+7 at LAC
This is either take the Chargers or pass. I hate this game too.

KC -9.5 at LVR
I am not going to do it and take the Raiders. I am not laying double digits on the road, or close to it. Pass.

CAR +11 at DEN
In most picks contests this is -9.5 and I am highly interested in Denver. No one is playing Carolina anymore. The Panthers are going to be +14 every week moving forward. Denver in contests.

CHI -3 at WAS
Jayden Daniels practiced Friday in a limited capacity. If Daniels sits, I will not use real money to back a Marcus Mariota team. Lean Chicago.

DAL +4 at SF
Nope. I hate both teams.

NYG +6 at PIT
I am not laying this many points with Russell Wilson. This is the Tomlin meh spot where they lose outright or struggle to win. I am going to try and stay away. Steelers do have a great matchup in this game all around.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DEN -9.5
MIA -3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
GB -4

Premium
MIN -3
DET -11
ARZ +3.5
DEN -10


Regular Plays
CIN -2.5
BAL -8.5
NE +7
TB +2.5
IND +5
NO +7
BUF -3
KC -9
WAS +3
SF -4PIT -6.5




NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  58-47 55.23%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 18-12 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 19-15 55.88%

My Plays
Overall  15-20 42.85%
Circa Millions Record 15-20 42.85%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-19 45.71%

NFL Week SIX Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Two years ago, it felt like every team I bet made a play when I needed it. Nothing encapsulated that like the Raiders running-back the lateral to beat the Patriots in that tie game. This year it seems like the opposite. The Bengals not covering, let alone losing outright after having three separate 10-point leads and the ball in OT needed a field goal to win. The Rams missing an extra point forcing them to go for two, instead of kicking another extra point and being down three getting 3.5 points. Oh well. These things happen. No matter what, there is always another week and it is a long season.

JAX +1 at CHI
Nope. Pass for me. I can not get the Jags correct.

CLE +9.5 at PHI
I mean, they have finally decided the Browns are terrible. The Eagles should not be favored by this many over anyone, but here we are. Pass for me.

WAS +7 at BAL
Yes, there are some +7’s still out there. This really feels like the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The Ravens never cover big numbers. The Commanders keep winning games despite expectations. Neither team can defend the pass. Lean Washington.

HOU -7 at NE
This is where I live. The worst team in the NFL starting a rookie QB making his first career start. SIGN ME UP. Seriously, this is a home dog getting a touchdown. We bet numbers at times, not teams. Houston will be without their best WR and it appears Joe Mixon again. I expect the Patriots to hang around and lose an ugly game. Pats in contest and as a wager.


ARZ +5.5 at GB
Despite last week, I believe the Cardinals are bad. The Packers are slowly getting healthy and can exploit the Cardinals terrible defense. If the Niners had a kicker last week, this number is closer to seven points. Packers in contests and as a wager.

TB -3.5 at NO
No way. Not all home dogs starting a rookie QB are the same. Pass.

IND +3 at TEN
This line makes zero sense. Pass.

PIT -3 at LVR
I am abstaining for the Steelers on the road here. Too many injuries that continue to add up are a massive problem for Pittsburgh. Pass.

LAC -3 at DEN
Ohhhhh boy do I want to take the home dog here. Pass. I am not sure what either of these teams are.

ATL -6 at CAR
I am not laying six with Kirk Cousins on the road at 1 PM. I am also not taking the Panthers getting six at home.

DET -3 at DAL
This is my most public play of the week. The Lions coming off a bye week, Dallas having played into Monday last week. The Cowboys defense can not stop the run and lost even more defenders. Detroit remembered that they have a fantastic offensive line two weeks ago against Seattle. I am on Detroit in contest and as a wager.

CIN -3.5 at NYG
What have the Bengals done to show they deserve to be a road favorite of more than three. I know, no Nabers, but I like the Giants defense a lot better than the Bengals defense. I may change but for now NYG in contests.

BUF -2.5 at NYJ
This is the last hurrah for the Jets. Josh Allen coming off his non concussion, concussion. If the Jets do not win here, it is going to be a long season. Lean NYJ, because of the defense and not an old QB who may just suck now.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +7
GB -5.5
DET -3
NYG +3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3
NO +3.5
CLE +9.5
PIT -3

Regular Plays
SEA +3.5
CHI -1.5
GB -5.5
NE +7
WAS +6.5
DEN +3
DET -3
ATL -6
NYG +3.5
BUF -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  42-34 55.26%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 13-9 59.09%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall  10-15 40%
Circa Millions Record 10-15 40%
Draft Kings Contest Record 11-14 44%