I want to thank the computer for getting me off the Bears and eventually landing on the Raiders. That turned a 3-2 week in contests into a 4-1 week. In these large field contests the most important thing to have a shot to actually win is no negative weeks. If you go 3-2 every week you will be in contention, but it is extremely hard to overcome those negative weeks. This week seems to be significantly harder than last week. Once the Jags line moved to 4.5 in week one, it became a clear contest play at -2.5. Always remember line differences are not all created equally. Crossing key numbers, is obviously important. In that game specifically, we crossed a key number, had some weather concerns as well and I felt it was an auto play. Will I apply the same logic to the games this week? We shall see.

BUF -6 at NYJ
Oh man, the Jets offense played very well, and the Bills defense was shredded. We do not lay points on the road in division. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at DAL
This line has come down from 5.5 to where it is now. I do like the idea of taking the points against a team that had limited expectations to start the season. The Giants offense is not good. I may just stay away from the Giants until the make a change at QB. As a Steeler fan I saw firsthand that Russ is, well, cooked. I lean Dallas here and kind of want to stack them in DFS. The hard part about playing this in contests is the line has moved against the Cowboys. Pass, for now.

CLE +11.5 at BAL
Stop if you heard this before. The Ravens lost a heartbreaking week one game and now home in week two as double-digits favorites. That is our scenario here, and it was last year as well when the Ravens blew a 10-point lead against the Raiders and Gardner Minshew. I think the correct side here may be the Browns as this line has come down a some from the 12.5 opener. I am passing though. I am very curious how the Browns defense attacks the Ravens here.

LAR -5.5 at TEN
Last week we played the Rams -3 and happily faded the Texans offensive line. Guess what happened, the Texans could not block at all, and the Rams got constant pressure. Meanwhile the Rams offense looked, a little worse than I anticipated. Maybe I am overrating the Titans defense after their performance in Denver. I believe the Titans offense has to look better and week one was more about the Broncos defense than Cam Ward and the Tennessee offense. I am fading the Rams on the road outdoors playing in the early window. Titans in contests and as a wager at +5.5.

JAX +3.5 at CIN
I have zero feel here. The Bengals offense was shut down by the Browns defense, maybe the Jags are better, or Carolina is that bad. Pass for me.

SEA +3 at PIT
Sam Darnold on the road against what is supposed to be a good defense. I am willing to say the Steelers defense was thrown way off following an early secondary injury. Maybe that is my homer-rose-colored-glasses. I still think the Steelers are going to be better than expected and the offense looked fantastic in week one. The defense has to show up right? I am laying the points here with the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +6 at DET
This line keeps climbing. We have gone from 4.5 all the way to 6.5 in some spots.  I am not playing the Bears on a short week on the road with a rash of secondary injuries. There is a chance the Lions window has closed and they are just not what they were. Having said that I lean Lions here. If Detroit can run the ball some and push the ball into the battered Bears secondary, they should score. I’m on the Lions which are -4.5 in contests.

SF -3 at NO
This number is much higher in contests at 4.5 points. I am not laying points with Mac Jones on the road. I also do not feel comfortable taking points with the Saints due to the Niners defense. Pass.

NE +1.5 at MIA
No feel here either. In the past Miami at home in the first few weeks was always a solid bet due to weather and the sun in the stadium. But, the Dolphins feel broken. The Patriots are clearly several pieces away from being the sleeper people thought they might be. Pass for me.

CAR +6.5 at ARZ
I think both these teams are not very good. If anything, I would lean Carolina, but I have zero desire to invest in either of these teams. Pass for now.

DEN -1.5 at IND
This line started at Denver -3.5 and after week one we have seen it come down by two points. In general, it is good practice to not lay points on the road often unless Tom Brady is involved. Pass for me.

PHI -1.5 at KC
This is the weirdest line of the week by far. My model has this at Philly -3.5 for obvious reasons including Chiefs injury/suspensions and the Eagles easily winning the Super Bowl. I know the correct side should be Mahomes and the Chiefs, but I can not do it. I am ready for Hollywood Brown to score two TD’s and the Chiefs to win here, but I am staying away. Pass for me.

ATL +3.5 at MIN
This line is all over the place. The number opened at Minnesota -4.5, in the DK contest it is Minnesota -5.5 and right now the live line is Minnesota -3.5. I have concerns with J.J. McCarthy playing on short rest after having a child, later this week. The Falcons should have won or could have won I suppose on Sunday, but instead they lost another close game decided by a failing kicker. I am passing on this game as I have no feel for either team after one week.

TB +2.5 at HOU
I am all about fading the Texans this year. I have been worried about their offensive line and their new OC did not do himself any favors by how that first game went. The Texans lost their center to a high ankle sprain during the game, and he will be out again this week. The Bucs looked like they were stuck in neutral for a majority of the opener in Atlanta and they get to travel again in week two. I am not playing the Texans but lean the Bucs.

LAC -3.5 at LVR
Are the Chargers that good? Or have the Chiefs fallen off? I like home dogs, especially in divisional matchups. These two coaches faced each other in the NFC west several times. I wonder if that newly revamped Chargers offensive line can handle the Raiders pass rush. Maybe this entire division is good? Lean Raiders.

So here we are on Friday with three contests picks and two wagers already set.

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -3
TEN +5.5

Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
TEN +5.5
DET -4.5

Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. The Philly entry from last week is playing Baltimore. The Denver entry is going to play Dallas.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (Week 2)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Dallas (Week 2)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
DET -6
BUF -6
MIN -3.5
LAC -3.5

Regular Plays
CIN -3.5
NYG +5
TEN +5.5
MIA -2
NO +3
PIT -3
BAL -11.5
DEN +1.5
ARZ -6.5
PHI -1.5
TB -2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  9-9 50%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 1-2 33.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 1-2 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 2-1 66.66%
Draft Kings Contest Record 4-1 80%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100

I feel like I am stuck in the middle here. Feels like every week there is a night game that can swing the week in a positive way, and it is not happening at this point. Oh well, we soldier on as the first quarter of the season is over. It is nice that the Circa Millions has quarter prizes as well that people can win should their season go sideways.

NYJ +2.5 at MIN (LONDON)
This is an odd one. At the start of the season, it would be for sure the Jets would be favored. Now the Jets cannot score, have a QB that cannot move at all and are somehow facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has been incredible, not to mention the play of Sam Darnold. This will be the best test for both the Minnesota offense and the Jets defense. I am firmly in the camp of the Jets are not very good. The favorites have cleaned up in Europe. The Jets have one WR and the line has struggled to protect and make running lanes. While the defense has been solid, they have only played one real team in the Niners. The Niners got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. This game is a massive coaching miss-match favoring the Vikings. I could be walking into a trap here, but Vikings in contests and as a wager.

CLE +3.5 at WAS
The Browns can not score. Washington can not be stopped. This feels like a trap. Coming off two massive road wins in a row and their third overall, this feels too easy. The Browns are getting healthier, but the QB remains. I am passing, but there is an easy argument to be made that the Commanders can get to 21 no matter what and Cleveland can not. Lean Wash, but pass for now.

BAL -2.5 at CIN
This is the most random spot that I love. Everyone watched the Ravens destroy Buffalo on Sunday night and of course we were on them. The public is all over the Ravens and thinks they are the team to beat at this point. I am going the other way. I believe the Bengals stack the box and force Lamar to throw on them, which has been a struggle at times. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has been on fire. I expect that to continue as the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Of course last week the game got away from the Bills and the Ravens played very well defensively when the Bills were one-dimensional. What happens to the Ravens if the Bengals do that to them? I expect the Bengals to score here and force the Ravens to keep up. They won’t. Bengals in contests and as a wager.

BUFF at HOU -1
This line has now flipped to Houston -1. I continue to believe Buffalo is fraudulent and only beaten bad teams. The first time they faced a real offense they got shredded. I am weary of going against Buffalo after a big loss, since I am not that into the Texans. Without Joe Mixon, the running game has been bad. Buffalo will be missing at least one key member of their offense in Shakir and at some point, a lack of weapons matters. Lean Houston but staying away for now.

CAR +4 at CHI
I hate this game. How can the Bears lay more than three points to anyone. Pass.


IND +3 at JAX
This is a must win for the Jags. I hate this game as well. I would either play the Jags or pass. No thank you.

MIA +1 at NE
I mean why? Pass.

ARZ +7 at SF
This feels like the spot you should be on the Cardinals, but San Fran back home with all their weapons feels like the better play. I am passing here.

LVR +2.5 at DEN
Again, nope. Pass here. Some of these games are terrible.

NYG +7 at SEA
The Giants appear to be without Singletary and Nabers. A team that struggles on offense loses two of their only options. Ugh, pass. Seattle is coming off a short week traveling home with a slew of defensive injuries. Pass.

GB -3.5 at LAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. Who wants to back the injured Rams here? I do! The Packer’s defense is not good and teams have thrown on them. I think the Rams will run the ball and Stafford will find the randoms he has been throwing to. Lean Rams in contests and as a wager.

DAL +2.5 at PIT
The Steelers will put JPJ on Lamb and then are worried about stopping, who? Tolbert? Ferguson? The Steelers defense lines up perfectly to attack Dallas. There will be pressure unless they stop calling holding like they did last week. Dallas’s defense will not be good, especially with their two studs out of the front seven. This feels like an old-school Steeler’s primetime spot. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NO +5.5 at KC
This feels dumb. The Chiefs are missing their RB. The Chiefs are missing their stud WR. The Chiefs are relying upon an undrafted free agent and a guy they signed off the street to play running back. Juju will matter in the Chiefs passing attack from now on. I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game by three points or so after a late field goal or Carr turnover. My god am I backing the Saints in primetime on the road in KC?! YES, I AM. Saints in contests and as a bet.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
NO +5.5
CIN +2.5
MIN -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
SF -7.5

Premium
MIA +1
BAL -2.5
CLE +3.5
LAR +3.5
DAL +2.5

Regular Plays
TB +2.5
MIN -2.5
CHI -4
IND +3
BUF -1
LV +3
SEA -6
NO +5.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  37-25 59.67%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 10-7 58.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-9 52.63%

My Plays
Overall  9-11 45%
Circa Millions Record 9-11
Draft Kings Contest Record 10-10