Miami has clearly defied the odds to make the finals, but have they beaten any actually good consistent teams? There are runs when teams are able to upset better teams on their way to winning a title. I think of the Dallas Mavericks with Jason Kidd and Jason Terry playing exceptionally well while Dirk was the leader. Normally, these teams have been underrated due to injury, coaching, or happenstance items that can be out of their control. (Like the lockout season of 1999, or the Derrick Rose getting hurt when he did.) This occurs frequently in the NCAA Tournament where the one-game-playoff can really affect outcomes. This is not supposed to happen in the NBA. In a seven-game series, the better team usually wins. Which brings me back to my starting point, did Miami really beat any good teams?
The Bucks were clearly better, when Giannis was healthy. However, he was injured, and the series was never the same. The Knicks were not deep at all and Thibs coached teams always fade in the playoffs. Boston on paper has always looked fantastic. Vegas and most computer models love them, ours included. (This includes last year where I still feel the Celtics could have won the title.) Yet, there was no consistency, their home record was shockingly bad and there is no need to pile onto the coaching quagmire they have been in since the Fall. If you add all of this up, Miami did not really have to beat any solid, healthy consistent NBA teams to make the NBA Finals. This is not supposed to happen the NBA.
Think about this in a different way, could the Heat have won their way on the same path as the Nuggets and made the Finals? Miami could have beat Minnesota. The Wolves were just as inconsistent as plenty of other teams. While the Suns bench was weak, I have a hard time seeing this Heat team beating the Suns. Lastly, there is no chance this Heat team beats the Lakers in a series. Just in case you forgot, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. To me, this is a short series where the upset darlings get exposed by the team that has earned this over the last few years. There is no answer for Jokic. Miami will not score enough to stay with the Nuggets at all. Denver plays the game as it is meant to be played, passing, ball movement, extra passes followed by great looks. Bam is nowhere near the defender than Anthony Davis is, and we saw how that played out. Miami will try a myriad of defenders and options, to no avail.
I have bet the Nuggets in four and the Nuggets to win the series by -1.5 games. I also hit up that Ringer special wager of Nuggets in four or five games. They have a boost, but the max is tiny as you would imagine. In terms of game one, our model has the spread at eight. While there is a lean toward Miami, I am all over Denver. Miami played a seven-game-series that just ended, now has to travel to Denver to play in the altitude while the Nuggets are well rested. Game one will be a Nuggets huge win. I think there is a chance it is a massive blowout and I have also bet Denver -19.5, which you can find at +350 over on Fan Duel.
Denver has been one of the best, most consistent teams in the league all year long. Barring some weird injury, this series will not be close. The Heat run into a team they can not scheme and coach their way through. The best team will win, convincingly. This is years in the making and I am not hedging my Nuggets futures. As you can tell, if anything, I am doubling down. Nuggets in Four.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model
Premium
Regular
MIA +8.5
NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!
No Sweat SGP (DK)
They are doing this every single day now!
FD Profit Boost Ringer Special
Nuggets to win in 4 or 5 games +140 Boosted
NBA
DEN -8.5
DEN -19.5 +350 FD
DEN -1.5 Games -155 (DK)
DEN to win 4-0 +450 FD
MLB
TOR -1.5 Runs +130
2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 365-389 48.40%
Playoffs 36-33 52.17%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 26-19 57.77%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
