So you didn’t watch that much college basketball? You know next to nothing about any of the teams in the bracket? You want the best chance to win your office pool? I am here to help, sort of. I am not going to tell you who to pick. I am going to tell you who not to pick.

Many people think the best way to give yourself a chance to win your pool is to pick the best team to win the title. That’s not entirely accurate. While picking the best team may actually give you the best chance to pick the winner, that does not guarantee winning your pool, or making any money. It is pretty straight forward to say that Duke is the prohibitive favorite to win the NCAA tourney. They have the best player. They might have the first THREE picks in the NBA draft. They have a hall of fame coach. They have a pretty favorable draw. The have the best odds in Vegas to actually win the title. They have all year. This week when you are listening to people give their picks, most people are going to pick Duke. That is precisely why you should not pick them.

I suppose everything depends upon what your goal is. Do you want to seem smart and say “I picked the champion,” or do you want to win your pool? I want to win my pool and any money I can. The best way to accomplish this goal is to make a contrarian champion selection.

Why? If you are in a pool with 100 people and 30 people pick Duke to win the title in their bracket, that does not guarantee you make money and finish at the top. Picking Duke in this scenario means you just finish in the top 30 with everyone else who picked Duke. Since most pools pay the top 5-10%, even picking the champion would be almost meaningless. This is the essence of game theory. If you want to give yourself the best chance to win a pool, pick anyone but Duke.

Using the same scenario as above, if Duke happens to lose relatively early, 30% of the field has already been eliminated. In most cases you have to pick the champion to actually win an NCAA bracket pool. Conversely, if the team you picked to win the title was only selected by you and two other people, you should almost automatically finish in the money should they win.

Of course all of this and how you should approach your bracket pool depends upon the size of the pool. If it is small and contains only a handful of entrants, I would go ahead and pick Duke. In that case I would be very chalky and allow everyone else to make mistakes. The larger the pool, the more contrarian you should become with your selections.

The toughest balance is being contrarian without being stupid. I am not advocating picking a bunch of 7 seeds or higher to win the title. I am simply saying pick someone not named Duke to win the title. However, if you really want to pick Duke, then be contrarian with the rest of your final four. Maybe you decide to pick Duke and a bunch of three seeds or higher. Obviously, there are a lot of combinations and things you can do. It is your bracket to have fun with. I know what I am planning to do though, pick anyone but Duke to win it all.

Good luck everyone!
(Of course if you are in a pool with me, don’t listen to this advice. Just pick Duke, it’s going to be fine. No one else will take them. Maybe, I am saying this so you don’t pick Duke and I can pick them as a low selected champion?)

NBA Record  47-41 (53.40%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-19 +383
College Basketball Record 24-19 (55.81%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-12 -850
Basketball Total Record 71-60 (54.19%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 9-26 -467

Sometimes life gets in the way. My wife got the flu, I got a cold and our family was sent into a survival mode. Every family has been there. The let’s just get through this thing the best we can and recover next week. We are all slowly on the mend. AS a result, I have played much less volume in DFS and sports betting. I have just been tired and going to sleep early. Ironically, I had a nice sweat on Fan Duel one of the last few nights. Of course I was playing a fraction of the volume I had been playing. Still, no complaints almost took down the single entry assist on Fan Duel.

This is really the time to sit back and watch a lot of basketball. Conference tournaments are in full swing and the NBA playoff seeding race is heating up. So is the tanking race. Tonight I like a few games.

Xavier +7.5 vs. Villanova
They split the season series and both games were very tight. This is too many points for a very inconsistent Nova team. This Nova team is not winning a title this year.

Tennessee -5.5 vs. Miss ST
Tennessee just beat them by double digits. This is a back-to-back for Miss St and Tennessee has got lots of athletes and plays fast. I am laying the points here.

Seton Hall +4.5 vs Marquette
Marquette has fallen off a cliff. They won last night showing signs of life for the first time in weeks. I’ll take the live dog that could easily win here.

In one week’s time I will be sitting in a sports book and watching all the games. I can’t wait. Good luck everyone!

NBA Record  47-41 (53.40%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-19 +383
College Basketball Record 21-18 (53.84%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-12 -850
Basketball Total Record 68-59 (53.54%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 9-26 -467

Had another decently close call in DFS the other night. During the Hawks and Bulls 4 overtime game, I had some pieces. I was shocked Spellman was as low owned as he was. Him getting hurt before the game went bonkers hurt. It could have gone better, but it was a positive night.

I am not the only person saying this, but always stack against Atlanta. Keep doing it. EVERY TIME THEY ARE ON THE SLATE. Tonight a potentially shorthanded Miami Heat against the Hawks who are playing a road back-to-back. YES, PLEASE! The only questions is, how many Heat Players? If Dragic and Whiteside sit again I am ready to fire up Kelly O, Bam, Richardson, Winslow, Wade, Derrick Jones Junior and anyone who is going to play 20 plus minutes. In that same game if John Collins sits for the Hawks you have to play Alex Len. LEN IS 3700 ON FAN DUEL. HE IS FREE. Your core tonight should be Len and a few Heat players. Depending upon any other value that opens, you should be able to build a strong lineup with that core. I will happily play Lebron and Rondo too (as long as Rondo starts) in a massively important game. If the Lakers lose, it is all but officially over. Despite me saying it was last week.

In terms of wagers for tonight, there are a few unique opportunities. The New York Knicks are done and they are really trying to tank now. They were down more than 30 yesterday at the half against the Clippers. The Knicks have a road back-to-back against the fast paced Sacramento Kings. The Knicks are going to get crushed. They will come out slow, play slow and lose by 20+. I am betting the Kings first quarter line. I am betting the Kings first half line. I am betting the Kings to cover -11. As soon as I have a line on those two I will post my wagers on Instagram.

I like four college games tonight. I will continue to ride Virginia into the ground. Virginia -6. I don’t care if they are on the road against the weird Syracuse zone. The other three games are all from smaller conference tourneys. Some teams look ready to move on to Spring Break and others have NCAA tourney aspirations. I am taking the teams that are trying to make the NCAA tourney.
North Florida -9 vs. North Alabama
Liberty -13 vs Jacksonville
Lipscomb -25 vs Kennesaw State
Lay the favorite with all three.

Now for some real fun. One large parlay to give you that extra cash for the NCAA tourney.
This pays +3100ish depending upon the money lines.
Kings -11.5
Virginia -6
Liberty -13
Lipscomb -25
North Florida -9
Jazz Money Line
Bucks Money Line
Throw down $100 and watch that $3100 roll in. It’s that easy right?

Good luck everyone!

NBA Record  46-38 (54.76%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-18 +383
College Basketball Record 10-8 (55.55%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-7 -450
Basketball Total Record 56-46 (54.90%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-21 -67

Part of sports betting and playing daily fantasy sports is riding the ups and downs. You can get hot, go cold, get lucky and feel like everything is working against you at times. Then some night’s weird things happen, like stat corrections. Last night was a really good night for me on Draft Kings. I have been trying to take bigger shots in GPP’s with a friend of mine. Last night we almost crushed, well we thought we did.

It appeared we finished in second place and had won $20K. Awesome. These are the GPP nights you dream about. Big scores to make all that prep and hard work seem worth it. Turning $88 into $20K.

Then there was a stat correction. I don’t know exactly what it was or who was affected, but $15k was lost in the process. The drop from 2nd to 4^th meant “only” winning $5k in that GPP. If I had gone to sleep and woken up to see that I had won $5k I would have been ecstatic. Instead, I woke up and felt disappointed. What a weird feeling. Had my biggest score in a while and I didn’t feel great.

It took me a little while to realize it was my perception that was off. I never actually was winning $20k. That was a mistake, but I did really win $5k. In my other GPP’s I won another $1k collectively. With some time and perspective, I thought, what an amazing night.

Living the GPP life can be maddening. Some people may never get a four figure score. This was my second this NBA season. Yet, I had ZERO this NFL season. I had ZERO this past MLB season. I had ZERO last NBA season. Four years ago (The year the Warriors lost to the Cavs) I had FIVE four figure scores in six weeks.

I am not the first, nor will I be the last to preach bankroll management. The DFS game is difficult and people are getting better. All the study, hard work and prep in the world might mean nothing. Some nights if one player gets in foul trouble, shoots poorly, drops a touchdown or leaves early with an injury you are done. Never play too much money on a given night and remember these is always tomorrow. The same goes for sports betting. Sometimes I am betting $20 a game, sometimes a lot more. You don’t have to hit homeruns to build a bankroll. If you can grind out $50 a day that’s over $18k for a year. That’s a lot of extra money for your family, yourself, or to allow you to keep grinding.

This was the lineup from last night. There were a couple of decisions that were difficult that helped us land where we did. The biggest decision was actually Giannis vs KAT. Giannis in a pace up spot in a competitive game seemed so juicy. However, this NBA season I have a pretty strict rule. When the Atlanta Hawks play, stack against them. The Hawks play fast and can’t stop anyone. Twenty minutes before lock, yanked Giannis and put in KAT. Towns crushed and so did Tyus Jones for Minnesota. Nic Batum was severely under-priced on Draft Kings at $4700. Batum almost got 10x on his price. Once the Heat ruled out Whiteside I was ready to play Bam and Kelly Olynyk. One of my big DFS nights from a few years ago was playing Kelly O when he was on the Celtics against the Warriors. The Heat’s opponent last night, the Warriors. It felt almost like destiny putting him in the lineup.

In the late games I had three players in my lineup. Lebron was the unquestioned best play of the night. He was going to play 40+ minutes in a fast-paced match-up. Lebron’s price is about to get absurd for the next few weeks. In that same game Elf Payton has really blossomed now that Anthony Davis is playing limited minutes. He almost got to 7x on his $5200 price tag. The last man in the lineup was the key to winning all the money. Bogdan Bogdanovic, my new hero. Priced at only $4900, Bogdan almost got to 12x on his price. Better yet, he was only 4% owned in a majority of contests on Draft Kings. Add all that up and it is 361 Draft Kings points of fantasy goodness.

How do you celebrate a big win like this? Get right back on the grind today. Make sure you follow us on Twitter and Instagram to see our wagers and any DFS thoughts we may have. Good luck everyone!

 

NBA Record  46-37 (55.42%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-17 +483
College Basketball Record 8-8 (50%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-6 -350
Basketball Total Record 54-45 (54.54%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-20 +133

The 2018-2019 Lakers are dead. And everyone over 30 killed them. I wrote yesterday that if you can still find the “will the Lakers make the playoffs” betting odds, you should bet NO. After back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Memphis, the Lakers season is officially over. Yes, the Lakers are three games back of a playoff spot in the Western conference, but it’s not happening. The schedule is insane. Below is their schedule and a guess of what games they will be favored in.

NO – FAV
MIL
PHO – FAV
LAC – FAV
DEN
BOS
CHI – FAV
TOR
DET
NY – FAV
MIL
BKN
SAC
WASH – FAV
UTAH
CHA – FAV
NO – FAV
OKC
GS
LAC – FAV
UTAH
PORT

Even if they win every game they should be favored in, they would close 9-13. Go ahead and give them three more wins where they are a dog and they close 12-10. The Sacramento Kings who are two games ahead of the Lakers should be favored in at least 9 games down the stretch. If they just win the games they should be favored in the Kings would close 9-13 and remain ahead of the Lakers. Reminder, neither of these teams are in playoff position.

The Spurs are currently in the final playoff spot in the West and have a three game lead on the Lakers. The Spurs are struggling, but part of it was their long rodeo road trip. Derrick White just came back and the Spurs have a pretty nice closing schedule closing with Washington, Cleveland and Dallas. All three of those teams will be tanking like crazy the last week.

I see almost no path for the Lakers to make the playoffs. It is extremely dangerous to count out Lebron James, but if you watched any of the spotlights of him on defense from the last week, it feels much safer. James seems to be coasting on defense and barely making an effort at times. Of course, he gets his numbers and if you didn’t watch the games, it appears he is fine. He isn’t. Lebron’s defense is bad and the team around him can’t make up for his lapses. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russilo touched on this on Simmons podcast today. They even broke down why the Cavs team that beat the Warriors worked and how this Lakers team is not constructed in any way like that championship team.

While, the top four in the East is very good this year that hasn’t always been the case. Lebron almost effortlessly has been able to loaf to a top four seed in the East the last eight years. (He took time off in games last year. He took a Miami Vacation a few years ago in season) As I wrote earlier this year, the NBA is vastly different. Every team has a star and can make things very difficult. There are only a handful of bad teams, or teams that are tanking. Even those teams are playing extremely hard. The Knicks just won two games in a row thanks to Mitchell Robinson. Do the Knicks want to win? Of course not, but the players don’t know that, they just play hard. People who don’t watch the NBA would always say that players don’t try that hard or play defense. That could not be further from the truth now. The Knicks who are hoping to lose just beat Orlando and San Antonio. Lebron took a few days off playing defense and the internet is skewering him.

Even when the Lakers get back Lonzo Ball, this team does not have enough to compete every day in the deep western conference. If you want to know how desperate the Lakers are, they traded for Reggie Bullock and are playing him major minutes. Surrounding Lebron with shooters on a team that lacks them makes sense, but that was the best they could do at the trade deadline. The off season signings of KCP, Lance and Beasley all did not work out. KCP is a streaky shooter has been more cold than hot. Lance strummed his guitar for like three days and Beasley is now playing in China. Remember when everyone complained that the Suns bought out Tyson Chandler so the Lakers could sign him? He’s done too. Even Rondo, who had some nice stretches, has been wildly inconsistent. Almost like Rondo has been ever since he left Boston. Never forget the entire Dallas Mavericks team and organization told him to go away a few years ago. Don’t let that stretch the Anthony Davis and the Pelicans from last year fool you.

The Lakers best five-man lineup in terms of offensive and defensive rating is actually Lebron, McGee, Ingram, Ball and Kuzma. The problem? They have only played 18 games together. Notice how none of their older players (Except McGee) are in that lineup. The missing player who when given some minutes actually excelled is Josh Hart. Hart had a short stretch where he was knocking down shots and became the shooter that James needs around him. Yes, Hart is shooting only 33% from three this season, but his minutes have trended down just as the Lakers have faltered. In December and January, the Lakers went 19-11. Hart shot 38% from three in that stretch and Lebron was injured for some of it. Hart’s minutes became inconsistent in February and he is shooting 22.7% from three this month. Coincidentally, Rondo came back from injury in this time frame and Bullock joined the roster.

How do the Lakers fix this? They can’t this season. The best chance they have is to start their best five-man lineup. Perhaps until Ball comes back they should start Hart over Bullock. Even so the bench and those older guys are going to get crushed by other teams second units. Over the next two weeks the Lakers plays Milwaukee, Denver, Boston and Toronto. All of those teams second units will not only maintain leads against the Lakers, but grow them. Is it fair to compare their bench to those four teams, no. But that is where this Lakers season has landed. Not only must they play well the next two weeks, but they need to steal at least one of those games to realistically have any shot at the playoffs. CBS Sports gives the Lakers a 16% chance of making the playoffs. ESPN says they have a 17% chance. I say it’s actually 0%.

“The over should be good unless the Spurs come out flat on the road back-to-back.” I said this at lunch time yesterday. Guess what happened? The Spurs no showed (I Bet the Nets), but I thought they would at least score some. The Spurs defense continues to get worse, but they may still make the playoffs. Everyone is currently jumping on the “look at Lebron fail” bandwagon, but it is honestly not all his fault. The young kids have picked up their game, but the older veterans besides Lebron have been bad. The remaining schedule is brutal, 14 of their remaining 22 games against teams currently in the playoffs. Closing the season with OKC, GS, LAC, Utah and Portland looks impossible for the Lakers. If you can find a price on will the Lakers make the playoffs, I would bet no.

Tonight is a weird small NBA slate of only three games. That feels very strange for a Tuesday. Oddly, I don’t like any of the games betting wise. The lines seem fair. I kind of like the Magic, but that’s about it. DFS should be strange though as four of the better defensive teams (Boston, Toronto, OKC, Denver) account for a majority of the teams playing. This feels like a great spot to stack the Magic, despite the game total being lower than the other two games. Play a few cheap Magic players and use that extra salary to play a Jokic or a Westbrook.

Surprisingly, even the college basketball slate is pretty small today. I did notice that my new favorite team is playing. The last two times the Buffalo Bulls have played at home we have taken them and laid 15 and 18 points. Both times they won and covered easy. I am going right back to the well. They are significantly better at home that on the road. I am laying 14 with Buffalo against Akron.

Duke without Zion Williamson travels to Virginia Tech tonight and the line feels too small. A little over a week ago we took Virginia at VT and laid more points. Now, I get to bet Duke with a smaller spread? I get that Zion is out, but come on. VT has struggled with ranked teams going 2-4 against them. One of their wins was that game NC State shot like 10% and scored 24 points. VT WON WITH 47 POINTS. They may need a few more in this one. DUKE -3.5.

Two other teams almost made the cut, but I just didn’t feel as good about them. Kentucky is giving Arkansas 14, but the Wildcats have Tennessee Saturday and could easily look ahead and struggle. New Mexico is playing a San Jose State team that is like 3-23. I just can’t give up more than ten points backing a team that is 11-15. But throwing NM into a money line parlay makes sense to me.

My last wager of the night is a parlay.
Duke -3.5
Buffalo -14
New Mexico Money Line -600
Kentucky Money Line -2400
Orlando Magic Money Line -325

This Pays +479! Good luck everyone!

 

NBA Record  46-36 (56.09%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-17 +483
College Basketball Record 5-6 (45.45%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-3 -50
Basketball Total Record 51-42 (54.83%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-20 +433

Betting futures in sports is a very strange thing. What is your ultimate goal? To pick the winner? Well, sort of. While picking the winner does matter, finding value and hedge opportunities are more important and at times more lucrative.

Around this time last year, I looked at the Philadelphia Sixers schedule and thought they would make their way to the 3 seed. Kyrie had just been ruled out for the season and playoffs. Cleveland was collapsing and it certainly seemed like the top four seeds would be Toronto, Boston, Philly, Cleveland in some order. I didn’t trust Toronto and felt Cleveland was beatable. Obviously, the Celtics were done without Kyrie so why not bet Philly? At the time the Sixers were slated to be the five seed and not have any home court advantage. I checked my online website of the price for the Sixers to win the East and saw, +2800. I looked at the Sixers remaining schedule and decided they could get to the three seed and would have an injured Celtics team and a Raptors team that always loses in April.

I bet the Sixers at +2800 to win the East. The Sixers won three straight.

I bet the Sixers again, but at +2500 to win the East. The Sixers went on a run and earned the three seed.

Round one, Sixers beat the heat. The Celtics were next. They were young and didn’t have Kyrie. No need to hedge even though the Celtics were +400 to win the series. Oops. The Celtics won and Ben Simmons refused to shoot a jumper.

I should have hedged, but waited. I figured in the East Finals I could bet enough to make sure I showed a profit. Using some easy math, if I bet $100 twice on the Sixers to win the East, I was in for $200 aiming to win $5300. I figured that the Raptors or Cavs would be a slight favorite against Philly. Even if the Raps/Cavs were -150, I could bet $2500 on them and guarantee a win of at roughly $2000 no matter the result.

My Plan
Sixers win: Make $5300 on original wagers, lose $2500 on Raps/Cavs bet.
Result: Win $2800
Raps/Cavs win: Make $2000 on Raps/Cavs series win bet, Lose $200 on original wagers.
Result: Win $1800

By taking advantage of what I thought was tremendous value, I could set myself up for a win no matter what. Of course, the Celtics ruined that plan and I waited to hedge. Resulting in a loss of $200. Lesson learned.

So how can we take advantage of futures right now? In terms of the NBA there is only one team I am focused on. In the west I am looking at Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title. Yes, Golden State is probably going to win the championship. But, what if they don’t? If KD or Curry get hurt between now and then anything can happen. I don’t like the Nuggets for that reason though. The Nuggets set me up for an opportunity to make money. A $100 wager on Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title would pay $2800. Denver is currently the two seed in the west and should avoid Golden State until the western conference finals. At that point I could hedge and make a profit.

My Plan
Denver plays five games against tanking teams out of their final 22 games. They should hold on to the two seed and have home court against everyone, but the Warriors. Denver could match up with the Spurs, Clippers, Lakers, or Kings in round one. Denver would be a big favorite of -200 or more against all of them. I would not hedge or do anything in round one. In the western conference semi-finals, the Nuggets would play the Thunder. They have played twice this year and Denver won both. They play two more times in the final 22 games of the season. Depending upon how it plays out, I could bet the Thunder for a $100 to win the series at maybe +125. If the Thunder won, I would be up $25 and basically did all of this for nothing. At this moment I would not do that. I could even bet the deciding game, if I didn’t hedge the series price to make sure I broke even.

Once the Nuggets make the western finals is when I would hedge. If the Warriors are -250 I could bet $2000 and in $800 if the Warriors win. Minus my original $100 wager I would net $700. Of course these numbers and my plan could change. At this moment though I am locking in Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title.

In college basketball we have a weird situation. Duke is the prohibitive favorite. Betting Duke provides zero value. You could just bet Duke on the money line a few time and make up the same amount of money as their current price of +200. There are two teams I do have my eye on. My goal is to pick teams that avoid Duke as long as possible. How can I do that?

Duke is going to be the no.1 Overall seed unless Zion is hurt long term. They should be placed in the Eastern Region (DC). Gonzaga should be the no.1 seed in the West (Anaheim) and should in theory play Duke in the final four. I want to avoid that situation completely. I want to focus on the teams who should play Duke in the finals should they make it. Two teams jump out to me and both should not be placed in Duke’s region at all. The reason, they are in the same conference. The bracket committee tries to avoid teams from the same conference meeting up, unless they have no choice. In this case, two highly seeded teams should avoid Duke and provide value.

Virginia is slotted to be the no.1 seed in the south (Louisville). Yes, I know what happened last year. This team is better, shoots more threes and has a lottery pick. Virginia should be a double-digit favorite in their first two games at least. In the sweet 16 they will be favored too. After two games, I can look at betting on the money line against them to hedge. Regardless, I won’t have to worry about Duke until the finals.

North Carolina is slotted to be the no.2 seed in a region. I am hoping in the Midwest (Kansas City). Why do I think that can happen? The committee again will not put an ACC team in UNC with either Duke or Virginia. Of course, UNC could get shipped out west with Gonzaga. Either way, they will avoid Duke until the final four.

Both of these teams could actually win the title and could possibly be favored in every game, except for against Duke. I feel both of these teams give me the best opportunity to hedge in certain spots and make a profit. I am going to lock in Virginia at +1000 and North Carolina at +1600. In my dream scenario, they meet in the final four or for the title.

 

NBA Record  45-35 (56.25%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-16 +583
College Basketball Record 5-5 50%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-2 +50
Basketball Total Record 50-40 55.55%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-18 +633

Last night was certainly strange. The Kings pushed the Warriors to the limit. The Lakers came back and beat the Rockets. My two bets got crushed. I did terrible on DK. I won 90% of my cash games on FD, but the GPP cash line was almost the same. There was one silver lining on an otherwise meh night. Draft.com sent me a free $22 ticket to their welcome back NBA GPP. There were 7 people per draft and you have to beat those 7 to advance.

I ended up with the third pick and took Lebron. I thought the guard position was deep considering 14 of them would get drafted. I really wanted to get two of the better forward plays and one of five centers. In round two I ended up picking Tobias Harris. This worked out well. I waited on guard and landed Chris Paul in round three. Homerun pick. The key to me winning my group though was Al Horford in round four. He outscored everyone on my team. I finished with Caris LeVert who, as you know from yesterday’s write up, I loved. He busted, but my team did not. I advanced and now get to do it again today. Need to win the group tonight for a shot at any real money.

In terms of wagers tonight I have my eyes on two games. I really like the Thunder tonight against the Jazz. OKC lost in their last game before the break and are healthy. They even added Markief Morris, which should bolster the second unit. This Jazz team crushed the Thunder in the playoffs last year and I think RWB remembers that. I am laying the 4.5.

I played Buffalo the other night and get a chance to do it again. Buffalo will be on ESPN2 tonight and as I said last week, they are much better at home. I will lay the 15.5 and watch Buffalo drop 80+ again!

I have one crazy wager for tonight. It is an 8 team NBA Money Line Parlay (With Buffalo). I know, that seems insane, but hear me out. Post break it is time to target teams that are trying to lose. I think it is a good night to take advantage of that. Throw $20 and you can collect around $340.
Charlotte
Indiana
Orlando
Toronto
Minnesota
Detroit
Denver
OKC
Buffalo (CBB)
This Pays +1706!!!

DFS tonight is odd because of the Memphis situation. It certainly seems like the Grizzlies will only have 3-4 front court players. In the year of 2019, it may be Joakim Noah night. Noah and Ivan Raab are going to be great plays. Then we must follow our normal rule of stacking against the Atlanta Hawks and we basically have a nice lineup from there. (Reggie Jackson, pick a SG, Blake, Drummond)

Good luck everyone!

 

 

NBA Record  44-34 (56.41%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-14 +883
College Basketball Record 4-3 57.14%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-1 +150
Basketball Total Record 48-37 56.47%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-15 +1033

Last night should have been easier than it was. If you follow us on Twitter and Instagram, if you aren’t what are you doing? We had UNC +9, UNDER 165 UNC/Duke and we parlayed them together. THE UNDER SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN IN DOUBT. A random elbow that results in three free throws with no time going off the clock. Both teams randomly fouling in a 15-point game with under two minutes left. I don’t want to ever hear again how people play defense in college and not in the NBA. North Carolina scored uncontested layups at will! We had to sweat the last few minutes but we got there. The record at the bottom of the page has been updated and things are going well. Have to keep it up!

UCONN and SMU have both underachieved this year. Frankly, neither team is any good. Why am I interested in this game then? The two teams played about a month ago and UCONN won by 12 at home against SMU. Since that game, SMU is on a five game losing streak. UCONN hasn’t exactly set the world on fire either. I just can’t fathom why a team that lost by 12 to an opponent and then lost five straight games is giving 6.5 to anyone. Take UCONN +6.5.

If you have been following you know I have been targeting the Nets totals. The Nets have been playing fast and they are deep. Caris LeVert is back and played 31 minutes in their last game. LeVert just got to rest over the Break and should be ready to play close to a full complement of minutes.

Nets Last Four Games Points They Scored
148
125
106
135

Portland Last Four Games Points They Scored
129
111
101
127

Both Teams have guys that can score a lot. Both teams are deep and their bench can fill it up as well. Maybe there might be some rust after a week off, but I don’t see it. Take OVER 229.5.

 

Both major sites have big DFS contests to welcome the NBA back. Of course we are playing in them and have some thoughts. The most important thing is that it is BOBAN night. Boban should start for the Sixers and play close to 25 minutes. He is close to the min price on every site. Just lock him in everywhere.

Players I am Interested In:
1. Sexton – What does he have to do to get his price raised?
2. Dame – I like the over so, yeah.
3. Chris Paul – Price is too cheap. Should be over 8K.
4. King Booker – Cleveland is bad.
5. Jimmy Butler – Fantasy points per minute skyrocket without Embiid.
6. LeVert – I like the over.
7. Osman – Too cheap on FD.
8. Joe Harris – Won me money during 3 point contest!
10. Lebron – Playoff mode engaged.
11. Harrison Barnes – DK Only.
12. Josh Jackson – Maybe I should bet Suns and Cavs over?
13. Kyle Kuzma – Too cheap.
14. BOOGIE – Revenge and minutes going up.

Good luck to everyone!

NBA Record  44-33 (57.14%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-13 +983
College Basketball Record 4-2 66.66%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-1 +150
Basketball Total Record 48-35 57.83%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-14 +1133

Waiting for the NBA to come back is torture. I thought they came back tonight, but it is actually Thursday. UGH. Things have been going pretty well and I want to keep it going!

If you follow us on Twitter and Instagram, you say what we have been up to. On Saturday we had Joe Harris at +600 to win the three-point contest. Harris came out hot and held off Steph Curry to win.  I had an All-Star Saturday night party, people came over and I think we were the only people cheering for Joe Harris besides the Brooklyn Nets and the Harris family. Nothing is more fun than telling an entire party who you bet on and having everyone cheer for that person.

On Sunday I kind of wanted to bet Team Lebron, but felt that was almost too degenerate to bet the All Star Game. The three-point contest is fine, but the randomly drafted game itself is too far!

Last night we took two NCAA basketball games. In the first game we had Virginia -5.5 at Virginia Tech. The end of this game drove me insane. Virginia up 8 with 15 seconds left broke the VT press and threw the ball down the court for a wide open cover-sealing dunk.

HE MISSED.

Not only did he miss, he missed so strongly VT got the ball quickly and launched a three.

MISSED.

Bullet dodged. Virginia rebound with under 8 seconds left up 8…VT fouls. THIS IS FINE. Just make one free throw and no matter what we can cover.

HE MISSED THE FREE THROW.

Here comes Virginia Tech to ruin my night. They drive down and score an uncontested layup? Time runs out and Virginia wins by 6. THIS WAS WAY HARDER THAN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN. Still, a win.

The second game we took was Illinois +9.5 at Wisconsin. Illinois had been playing well winning four in a row. It felt like Illinois would hang close all game and maybe still this one on the road. Wisconsin was up a few points all game, but never got up more than six the entire second half. A lot less stress than the other game. Easy win.

For tonight we are looking at three games. Purdue -6 at Indiana. Indiana has the strangest against the spread record. They have lost 8 of their last 9 overall and against the spread. Their lone win? They won at Michigan State. That Michigan State game is bizarre and the Hoosiers shot insanely well. That appears unlikely to happen again as their history suggests. Take Purdue -6.

Buffalo is 22-3 and has struggled against the spread. If you look at their numbers a little more closely, they are much better at home against the spread. Ohio has lost five straight games and are 5 and 21 against the spread. 5-21. Of their five spread wins four have come at home and two, including their lone road cover have come against Ball State. Stick with Buffalo -18.

Three weeks ago Drake won at Bradley by 17. Tonight Drake hosts Bradley and they are giving…4. Wait, what? If this was an NFL game or an NBA game, I would think something was wrong. Since it is a small college basketball game I am going to try and take advantage. Perhaps the odds makers just can’t get the spread correct for Drake as they are 19-5-2 against the spread this year. Take Drake and lay the four.

If you want to have some real fun parlay all three and add the Tennessee Money Line. Yes, the money line is like -4000, but it takes you from +600 and adds a little more money. Good luck everyone!

 

 

NBA Record  44-33 (57.14%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-13 +983
College Basketball Record 2-2 50%