It is impossible to end a massively detailed and nuanced story in any way that will satisfy everyone. It cannot be done. This is especially true when the story in question has as much history and source material as Game of Thrones does. It is very clear that the story and show itself changed dramatically when they were out of source material. After Jon died at the end of season five, the show shifts in many ways. The nuance, the detail, the travel. Everything speeds up dramatically. The show did not get worse, or become bad, it just sacrificed a lot of what made it so exceptional to head to a specific end game. Was this the result of not having books as a guide? Was this because they had an outline of how to end the show? Was this just a result of fatigue, running a massive tent pole show for HBO that films all over the world? In the end all of them contributed to the final three season and the rushed feeling many fans described.

Last night’s finale was the epitome of the final three season. It was fine. It was not amazing. It was not terrible. There were some amazing highs and some baffling lows. In many ways, last night’s finale ended the moment Jon killed Dany. That was effectively the end of the story. The rest was just an epilogue. It almost felt like everything after Dany dies was the writers saying how can we close all threads we left in a faster semi-satisfactory way. The destination for all the characters made complete sense, but the speed and path seemed a little off, much like this entire season. To be fair I never expected this season to blow me away or surpass expectations. I was ready to enjoy the spectacle and the amazing moments we were going to get along the way as opposed to worrying about the totality of the ending. There were moments in this season that did exceed my expectations and blew me away. I will ride for episodes three and five forever.

The book readers seem unhappy. They wanted the show to dive deeper into the prophecies, the theories and the magic. The show used those as plot devices, but none of them really matter, as much to the show as it did to the books or the book readers. The prince who was promised, light bringer, Valonqar prophecies were all fun to debate and speculate about. In the end, they did not matter. This is driving many people crazy. They wanted more, they wanted nuance, and they wanted a reason for some of what was happening to come back to their theories. The show was never completely about that and in reality killed magic off with the death of the Night King. One could argue that Bran warged into the white horse that saves Arya, or maybe Bran warged into Drogon and had him scoop up Dany and fly away. Those are two of the unanswerable questions. Couple those along with the thought that maybe Bran had this planned all along. Maybe he knew the future and was actually trying to make sure this happened. After all, he did not come all this way for nothing.

The biggest criticism I saw come out last night after the finale dealt with Jon’s parentage. People were saying it ended up being a massive reveal that did not affect the story. That is lunacy.

If Jon is not a Targaryen:
Dany does not feel that he is a threat.
Dany does not have to worry about him telling others.
Dany does not feel betrayed by Jon.
Dany does not feel betrayed by Sansa and Tyrion.
Tyrion does not tell Varys.
Varys does not try to poison her.
Dany does not burn Varys.
No one suggests Jon be King due to birth.
Jon can not ride a dragon.
Jon does not reject Dany.
Dany is not Jon’s Aunt.
Jon and Dany are together.
Dany rules with love and not fear.
Dany does not burn the city.
Jon cannot walk past Drogon and kill Dany.

If Jon is just Jon Snow, all of those plot points are drastically different and so is the show as a whole.

The ending worked just fine for me, as it was essentially, what I had been speculating for weeks. It was apparent Dany was going to die and Jon would not be the king. I speculated Sansa would rule with Tyrion as co-rulers. In a way, that is exactly what we have. Bran is off looking for Drogon and allowing Tyrion and the small council to run the country. Meanwhile Sansa is a queen and running her own nation in the north. I speculated that Jon would go north and join the night’s watch, which ended up happening. I would have rather had Jon abdicate his claim and decide to go north. That would have made more sense, but this worked too.

I do not know why after Grey Worm left Jon did not just stay. Who would have objected? I guess Jon really did not have a place there anymore and the north was in him. The ending felt right for all of the characters. This was probably the closest to a happy ending the show was going to give the viewers. I liked it. I honestly, do not know how else they could have ended it that made sense. Sansa being Queen I suppose would have worked. I mean where did Drogon go? Was he so upset that the pursuit of the throne made his mother die? Did he have to destroy it? Or was that Bran destroying it? Will we get answers on Drogon in a spin off, or is Bran handling it?

Everything that happened on the show and this final season was foreshadowed the entire time.  Dany was always going to be the final dragon that needed to be slain. Everyone’s character arc and especially Dany’s turn was always right in front of our faces. Unfortunately, it happened too quickly the final two seasons. Could that have been fixed, maybe? It does not matter now. It was fine. Like all shows, I enjoyed the journey much more than the destination.

Looking back on the entire journey I will remember the shocking moments, the awesome battle sequences and the fun I had discussing the show with friends and family. To me the discussions and excitement played into why the show mattered so much to me.  Coming to work every Monday ready to discuss with co-workers. Texting with friends as soon as major events happened. Reading articles, following the conversation on twitter and of course watching Talk the Thrones and listening to podcasts were what made this experience so fantastic. I will almost miss the discussions and media about the show more than the show itself. It’s all over now, but it was a great ride.

We made it. This is it. Sunday will be the final episode of Game of Thrones. I realize that the last few episodes have been divisive to say the least. I cannot recall a show that was this popular, but people hated the final stretch so much. This is not everybody, but the internet has strong takes. While this season definitely feels rushed, everything else seems to be wrapping up and heading toward a conclusion we should have seen coming in some ways.

The biggest complaints I have read over the last week really deal with three major topics. I am going to try to explain why I feel those complaints are not actually valid.

Jaime’s character arc made zero sense
I do not understand what is so difficult here. Jaime countless times has been drawn back to Cersai, always to his detriment. Jaime even says in season six that he would launch a baby over a wall and kill anyone to get back to her. Yes, Jaime tried to go straight and live an honorable life. That was never who he was. Like a criminal getting out of jail, Jaime tried to go straight. He honored his word, he fought for the living and he met someone he felt comfortable being around and loved. We have seen characters in stories do this before. They strive to change and get redemption, but ultimately, people are who they are. Jaime spent the night with Brienne and did everything the “right way.” It did not feel right to him. The criminal who has been trying to do the right thing for his family always gets sucked back in for one more job, or one final event. In this case, it had tragic consequences. Jaime knew that. However, he has always been drawn to the person he shared and was born into the world with. The story was always ending with Jaime going back to Cersai, people just wish he would have made a better choice. A character arc does not always means change for the good. Jaime’s arc led him right back to where he started.

Cersai should have been killed by someone we know
A main character did kill her! Dany Killed her. In what became an odd situation the Lannister army actually became the sympathetic figure in all this. They were trying to protect the people of Kings Landing despite them already surrendering. In many ways, Cersai should have been executed after the city was over taken when they rang the bells. Dany had other plans. Cersai at this point would have done anything to hold onto the city, even as it literally crumbled around her. This was a metaphor for entire family and way of life. No matter the situation, she never gave up. I think it was poetic that she died and was crushed by the building she fought so hard to keep. The book readers are mad that their prophecy was not fulfilled, but in a weird way was it? If she weren’t pregnant would she have surrendered earlier? Who knows? Jaime and Cersai going out of the world the same way they went in was poetic and sad. Together, they accomplished a lot. Honestly, they killed far less people than Dany did before she ever got to Kings Landing. The biggest thing to me was, if anyone had killed her they would have had to die as well. I am happy Arya did not die. (Some internet theories are not sure)

Dany turned heel far too quickly
This has been hinted at and mentioned so many times. We even had one of Bran’s and Dany’s visions from the temple of the undying that showed a throne room with ash flying through the air. We all thought it was snow, but it was not. Dany has killed people every single place she has gone. BUT THEY WERE ALL BAD GUYS AGAINST HER. That is exactly how she viewed the people of Kings Landing!

Dany was not getting the credit of the adulation of Jon. Dany had lost more than Jon. Dany saved the lives of the living. Dany losing everyone close to her, another dragon and then having Varys try to poison her was the last straw. Dany worked her entire life for the moment when she would take back what was hers. The problem is she was the only one that thought it was hers. When the bells rang, the victory felt hollow. Athletes and coaches talk about winning the championship feeling hollow, but the journey was actually the experience.

Add the entire thing up and it makes complete sense. A person with unlimited power who has been told her methods are too violent at every step, now has no one or person to be accountable to. This was always the path. Just because you liked her or rooted for her to get vengeance doesn’t mean she was a good person and not capable of evil. Dany has literally burned someone in every single season. EVERY SEASON.

Dany’s brother said in season one, you can rule with either fear or love. This last episode had Dany beg Jon for love. Jon rejected her. Dany even says, so it will be fear then. There was many clues along the way that this was inevitable. Then there are lines that are so obvious, people chose to ignore them.

SHE TOLD YOU WHAT SHE WAS GOING TO DO! Why don’t people accept it? This just completely baffles me. Dany’s mercy has always been to kill people who she deemed as bad and to rule her way. That’s not mercy. That is a different type of governing.

Dany has not been universally loved and looked at glowingly since she arrived in Meereen. That was season five! That was many years ago. Everything has gone downhill since then for Dany and it culminated in her not feeling satisfied with her victory. The win wasn’t good enough. She wanted everyone to know that she won and this was her time. There was only one way to do that.

How do they wrap this show up in only 80 minutes Sunday? It’s prediction time! You can find my other predictions before episodes here and here. What I said is still in play, but now is more clear. I think we have two possible option for how this all plays out. Yes, I am going to include gambling odds, which you may view as a spoiler. You have been warned, but the gambling odds have been wrong most of this season.

 

Jon is going to kill Dany. I had speculated that Dany was going to die at some point, now it is clear she will. Dany’s army will not be happy about this at all. Grey Worm will try to take out Jon and whatever forces he has left. Seemingly, they will be in bad shape as Drogon will be upset too. Bran will warg into Drogon and eliminate Dany’s army. I can’t come up with any other way in which they handle her army. There is no one left. No one would be willing to fight a person with a dragon. It has to go this way.

Once Dany is one and her army is take out, two possible solutions exist. I don’t believe Jon wants to be King and believe he will abdicate his throne. I have been saying this for weeks. He has even given up everything he has ever been named.

This of course would lead to the union I believe will rule in Sansa and Tyrion ruling together. This is the most logical conclusion left and frankly, we don’t have enough characters left we actually know. Jon then goes north, pets his dog and lives out his days as commander of the new night’s watch. The other possible ending seems a little weirder.

Did information leak? Why is Bran Stark the betting favorite to sit on the Iron Throne? How can this even happen? My theory is just like above Jon kills Dany, Jon abdicates, but Sansa says I don’t want to live down there. Winterfell is my home. Bran ends up ruling, but decides the best way for peace is to divide the kingdom into the seven nations it once was. We just have enough characters to rule in every place.
Sansa The North
Dornish Prince Dorne
Bronn High Garden
Davos Dragon Stone
Robin of Arryn The Eyrie
Yara Iron Islands
Tyrion Casterly Rock
Gendry Storms End
That would just leave Riverrun as a place some one needs to rule. Maybe Brienne?

To me these seem like the two most likely options. How will this all play out? I can not wait to find out. What do you think?

Sometime things go well. Sometimes things seem too easy. Normally, that’s when it is about to turn bad. I hit my huge baseball/basketball parlay last weekend at +2149. A really nice jolt to the bank roll. I hit another small parlay last night that seemed almost too easy. The Astros and Warriors money parlay paid almost +100. Neither were every really in doubt. At this point I will end up money on basketball parlays and teasers for the season.

In terms of this upcoming weekend we have the next PGA major to wager on and make lineups for! I am betting two different longer shot golfers to win the second major. One has played very well here in Bubba Watson. Watson is currently 75/1 aka +7500. A $10 bet would make $750. I have not locked this wager in yet, but my other selection I have.

Lucas Glover has great course history at Beth Page Black. Based upon that and nothing else, I threw $10 on him at 150/1, or +15000. My small $10 bet would make $1500.

In terms of the Draft Kings Milly Maker Lineup I have narrowed my player pool to the following people:
Cantlay
Bryson
Brooks
Glover
Fowler
Rory
Xander
Sergio
Woodland
Suri
List
Rahm
Mitchell
Bubba
DJ

Just like the Masters I am fading Tiger in every way. I might look dumb again, you never know. Once the PGA Championships tomorrow I’ll post my lineups.

I do have one small wager for you for tonight. I am riding the Astros until they actually lose a game. Tonight they have Justin Verlander and continue to kill the ball. I am not crazy about them being a -300 favorite, but I found a way around that.

3 Team Money Line Parlay
Astros
Warriors
Bucks
+123

 

Good Luck Everyone!

 

Current Open Bets
1. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Lucas Glover To Win PGA Championship

NBA Record  54-47 (53.46%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 11-23 +2217
NBA Playoff Record 7-6 (53.84%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 4-10 +1817
Basketball Total Record 94-80 (54.02%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 14-42 +1727
Baseball Record 1-2 -160
Baseball Parlays 4-4 +210

*Warning this post is dark and full of potential spoilers based on betting odds

There are only two episodes left of Game of Thrones. We have had the highest of highs, thanks Arya, and some strange low points like last week’s coffee cup fiasco. I am not going to critically look back at last week’s episode and some of the mistakes the characters (Writers) made that seemed silly or nonsensical. They did lead to some great memes though.

I also think we got some hints about Arya killing one of the main women left in this story.

Although Arya killing Danny could be a popular theory, it’s not the one I believe will actually happen. Arya killing Cersai (She has Green eyes!) while wearing a Jaime or Tyrion face could help fulfill the prophecy of her death and also allow this meme and the words of the red witch to come true.

Last week I gave my theory for how it is all going to play out. Some of it is now off the table, but a majority of it is in play. While you can read it all here, this is an excerpt:

“The scenario I see playing out in the final three episodes goes something like this. The big battle happens in episode five, in this episode we lose lots of people, including Danny and her dragon. We get the Hound and the Mountain battle and the Hound wins. After Danny’s death, our group takes the Iron Throne and Jon Snow renamed Aegon Targaryen is supposed to ascend to be the ruler of Westeros. Jon says, thanks but no thanks. Jon turns to the people he knows how to rule and will do an excellent job uniting the 7 kingdoms. Sansa Stark and Tyrion Lannister agree to co-rule with Jon’s urging. Jon decides to help rebuild the wall in the north and travel the seven kingdoms on his dragon. Brienne is named head of the new king’s guard and protects Sansa and Tyrion. Arya and Gendry move to and rebuild Winterfell with their new friend the Hound. Jaime Lannister heads home to fix the Lannister name and start over. Bronn gets a castle with a lady, just like he always wanted.”

I still think this scenario plays out in some way. The betting odds for who will sit on the Iron Throne are ever changing, but some other odds have come out pertaining to the ending too. They are interesting to say the least. I am convinced Danny is going to die. The hints of her becoming the mad queen are almost too obvious. They should show another close up of her eyes with fire in them. Seriously, we only got three shots like that last week, how about some more? If we expect Danny to die there are several ways this can go. We know Varys has a plan in place that may in fact be in motion to remove her and then place Jon Snow on the Iron Throne. Could Jon Snow actually kill Danny to keep her from burning the city down?

This clearly says to me not only are they not getting married, but Jon may actually be the one to take her out. Does that ruin his heroes journey? A little, but if he does it to save everyone, then I don’t know. Would this be the irredeemable act that allows Jon to abdicate the throne as I speculated? I think so.

This other strange betting prop showed up this week and I am not completely sure what to make of it.

Does this mean that whomever takes the Throne divides it into several kingdoms? Is just the North free? What about the Iron Islands? This prop bet seems to conflict with the last one about Jon killing Danny. I would think Danny might actually allow the North to be free despite her misgivings a few episodes ago.

Finally, the most import question. Who will rule Westeros at the end of the show. For the first time in a while we have a massive odds shift. Bran is now favored at +150. How did we get here? Well, Danny seems to be out. Jon doesn’t really want it. If Danny is dead she can’t have a child. We are running out of options in that scenario. While Varys and Tyrion were talking last week, they speculated that perhaps the best King is someone who doesn’t want to rule at all. We all thought this was about Jon Snow, but what if it is about Bran? Bran said he doesn’t want a title and to be Lord of Winterfell. Maybe he ends up as the King. Sansa’s odds have also risen dramatically. I think she may be the safest pick and as I stated above is part of how I see this all playing out along with Tyrion. Tyrion has been noticeably shaken recently and maybe his conversation with Bran is why. What if Bran told him he would be King in a few weeks and to prepare. That might mess with anyone’s head.

Heading into Sunday I am sticking with my Sansa/Tyrion co-rulers plan and Jon goes north to lead the Night’s Watch and rebuild the wall. Of course this is Game of Thrones so anything is in play. What do you think happens?

I was lucky enough to attend game six last night in Philadelphia. It was my first ever NBA playoff game and the atmosphere was amazing. The crowd was very nervous and especially hostile to Ben Simmons before the game even started. It is not a secret that Simmons has had a bad series and in many ways has been exposed. Simmons still can’t shoot. There isn’t even hope that he is trying to improve that area of his game. Simmons is the same player he has been the last two years. Watching him live one thing is clear, he must attack the rim more. Simmons must push the pace and be significantly more aggressive than he has been. As Simmons goes, so will the Sixers in game seven and beyond.

We had fantastic seats, mid court in the second level. You could see everything develop and understand how tired Joel Embiid really is. Embiid must play 40+ minutes in game seven. When he was off the court the Sixers got killed. I think Embiid was a +30 and Boban was something like -15 in four minutes. Toronto meanwhile really has six guys. Philly needs the game to be played in the 110’s or higher. I’m hopeful Philly pushes pace Sunday and makes that happen.

Sunday is going to be incredible. Mother’s day. At least two NBA game sevens. Game of Thrones. Insanity. Once the Rockets win tonight, it will make THREE GAME SEVENS SUNDAY. I would like to apologize to all Mothers everywhere, except the NBA fans. It is going to be a day you will want to cook a meal for your wife/mother and then plop down and watch all these important games. In order for us to get three game sevens the Rockets need to win tonight.

I have the Rockets to win the series and the Rockets to win in seven games. I mentioned the other night how I was planning to hedge and try to middle the game. Then Kevin Durant got hurt. Now I have this massive window to middle the game. I really want the line to move to 7.5 to squeeze out an extra half point to raise the probability of middling the situation. I will be on the Warriors +7, but I hope it moves to +7.5 by the time I get out to the sports book.

I have a similar situation to hedge out of my Portland and Denver futures. I will have no choice but to take Portland and the points for an amount to make sure I get my investment back. Again, thanks to the line of 5.5, I have a middle where I can win both bets. I am deciding what to do with that wager but I have until Sunday.

My wagers for now
Golden State +7

3 Team MLB Money Line Parlay
Astros
Red Sox
Dodgers
+223

6 Team Parlay
Golden State +7
Portland +5.5
Philly +6.5
Astros ML
Red Sox ML
Dodgers ML
+2149

Good Luck Everyone!

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  53-47 (53%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 10-19 +468
NBA Playoff Record 6-6 (50%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 3-6 +68
Basketball Total Record 93-80 (53.75%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 13-38 -22
Baseball Record 1-2 -160
Baseball Parlays 2-2 87

I enjoy the hedge life. I like locking up a win. Half the reason I make some of the wager I do, is too extract value and then make money on them. I have said since the beginning, I don’t think the Nuggets can win the title. Yet, I have two different wagers on them to do just that. I believe that the Nuggets true odds are much better than 30/1. They are currently at around 18/1. If Kevin Durant is actually hurt and out for any length of time, I am sure the value I have built in on the Nuggets will in fact go up. The Plan all along was to hedge and bet against the Nuggets in the Western Conference finals. It may have just got easier to do so.

The next two nights present some very unique opportunities. I have a small wager on Portland at 30/1 to win the NBA title as well. Since they are facing an elimination game tonight, I want to bet against them to get my money out should they lose tonight. I assumed Portland would be favored in game 6 at home and that gives me a small window to middle and win all the bets. I will be taking Denver +3.5 tonight. If Denver wins out right, I get my money back from my Portland future. If Portland wins, my future is live and I lose this wager. I also have a small three-point window in which my Portland future lives and my Denver +3.5 comes in too. I am actually rooting for Denver to win, move on and I get my money out on Portland.

Speaking of windows, the Golden State Warriors are massive underdogs Friday night. As you can see below I have the Rockets to win the series and a separate bet on the Rockets to win in seven games. To make sure I don’t lose any money, I will take some of the built in equity and bet it on Golden State Friday night. I thought I would have a tiny middle window, but here I am with at least seven points. My dream scenario is the Rockets winning a close game and not covering. I am going to wait to lock in the number on Golden State, just in case it goes up a little.

 I am actually going to the Sixers game tonight and will be posting pictures! Good luck everyone!

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  53-46 (53.53%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 10-19 +468
NBA Playoff Record 6-5 (54.54%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 3-6 +68
Basketball Total Record 93-79 (54.06%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 13-38 -22
Baseball Record 1-1 -60
Baseball Parlays 2-2 87

After that episode of Game of Thrones, you know the betting odds had to shift. The Night King is gone, but most of the main characters remain. I did find this theory that Jon assisted Arya in some way interesting. I re-watched this scene a few time and I can see what they are arguing about it. It does seem Jon makes eye contact with someone and it does appear he yells GOOOOOOOOOOO. Either Way, Arya was the hero and hit the game winner as time ran out.

Most of the online betting sites update their odds the day after “Battle of Winterfell,” and I always try to determine what they mean for where the show is going. It certainly appears we are headed to Jon Snow sitting on the Iron Throne when the show ends. That facts almost seems too obvious and as GOT fans we are conditioned to believe it actually won’t happen then.

Here are the current odds as to who will rule Westeros at the end of season 8 (Reminder the odds reflect what you would win if you bet $100 on that person)
Jon Snow +135
Bran Stark +450
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Gendry +750
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200
Arya Stark +1400
Cersei Lannister +2000
Petry Baelish +2500
Samwell Tarly +2500
Jaime Lannister +5000
Varys +5000
Davos +7000
Bronn +10000
Euron Greyjoy +10000
Brienne of Tarth +10000
Jaqun H’ghar +100000
Daario Naharis +12500
The Hound +12500
Yara Greyjoy +15000
Tormund Giantsbane +15000
Gilly +100000
The Mountain +1000000

 

Most of this list we can eliminate right off the bat. They will not be ruling at the end and frankly will probably die pretty soon. I am trimming the list to these possible winners.

Jon Snow +135
Bran Stark +450
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Gendry +750
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200
Arya Stark +1400
Cersei Lannister +2000

 

Since Bran claims he is not really Bran anymore, he can be removed as well. Cersei is going to die at some point, so it seems she will not rule either. Arya seems to have little to no interest in ruling anything. In Arya’s happy ending she probably ends up with Gendry. So despite him being the rightful Baratheon heir, I am removing him too. The list is trimmed again.

Jon Snow +135
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200

This is where the fun begins. As I stated above, Jon Snow seems too obvious. Jon has mentioned multiple times he does not care about titles, only survival. Will that change? He gave up being Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. He gave up being King in the North. Jon seems more than ready to bend the knee or abdicate his throne should he end up as the rightful ruler of Westeros.

Daenerys Targaryen is going to die. This is my hot take. I don’t know who is going to do it or why, but it is going to happen. Danny just can’t be the Queen unless Jon is dead right? Unless they get married. Danny will die at some point, in the last three episodes. Danny being dead means she can’t have a child. Unless there is a time jump she can’t have a child anyway.

And then there were two.
Sansa Stark +650
Tyrion Lannister +850

The scenario I see playing out in the final three episodes goes something like this. The big battle happens in episode five, in this episode we lose lots of people, including Danny and her dragon. We get the Hound and the Mountain battle and the Hound wins. After Danny’s death, our group takes the Iron Throne and Jon Snow renamed Aegon Targaryen is supposed to ascend to be the ruler of Westeros. Jon says, thanks but no thanks. Jon turns to the people he knows how to rule and will do an excellent job uniting the 7 kingdoms. Sansa Stark and Tyrion Lannister agree to co-rule with Jon’s urging. Jon decides to help rebuild the wall in the north and travel the seven kingdoms on his dragon. Brienne is named head of the new king’s guard and protects Sansa and Tyrion. Arya and Gendry move to and rebuild Winterfell with their new friend the Hound. Jaime Lannister heads home to fix the Lannister name and start over. Bronn gets a castle with a lady, just like he always wanted.

Maybe I am crazy, but this what I am thinking is going to happen! Jon just being the new King seems too simple and easy for a show that has been anything but that. What do you think?

 

The Sixers came through last night and so did the Nuggets in game one. Those Nuggets tickets are looking better every day!

I’ve been saying it for days and tonight will be a demonstration. The Rockets are getting 5.5 tonight in Golden State. I am taking the points. I believe the Rockets will shoot much better tonight and get the win, stealing home court. However much you normally bet on a game, double it tonight. Am I confident? Yes. Am I stupid? Maybe. Going against the best team in the NBA doesn’t make a lot of sense.

The Rockets played awful in game one. The fringe guys did very little. CLINT CAPELA AND PJ TUCKER I AM LOOKING AT YOU. The Warriors have made their last adjustment. They have nothing left to do. They aren’t going to play Jordan Bell or Quinn Cook all the sudden to give them an edge. This is all the Warriors have. Of course, the Warriors could make 20 threes and it might not matter. The shooting woes of the Rockets have to flip, it starts tonight. Rockets +5.5.

I think the Bucks win tonight and tie the series with the Celtics, but I am not completely comfortable laying that many points. I do have a wager idea involving them. You could play the Rockets and the points with the Bucks money line (Pays +150), but ehhh, doesn’t really move the needle. If you really want to have some fun.

Parlay
Rockets +5.5
Bucks Money Line
Phillies Money Line
Indians Money Line
Astros Money Line
Rays Money Line
+1368

A simple $20 wager would earn you $273 or so depending upon money line odds at the moment. I am playing this parlay for a small amount and then loading up on the Rockets.

I am also going to take the Rockets +5.5 and the Bucks ML in a small parlay. I believe this night belongs to Houston. Despite who the officials may be.

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 6 +800
6. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  51-44 (53.68%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 9-18 -50
NBA Playoff Record 4-3 (57.14%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 1-4 -390
Basketball Total Record 91-77 (54.16%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 12-36 -440
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100

Yesterday was kind of exhausting. I drove back to town, took my son to see Avengers: End Game, got the kids to bed and then waited for the main event. It seems crazy to say that End Game was not the main event, but that is exactly where we are with Game of Thrones. I don’t know if there is anyone left who doesn’t watch this show. I mean what is wrong with you? You are only depriving yourself of what is arguably the greatest TV show of all time. It is top three at least. (Breaking Bad and the Wire)

Last night was dark; no I don’t mean the story or plot line. Much of the episode was dark and difficult to see, which apparently was planned to give viewers the same confusion as the characters fighting in the battle. We always watch with the lights off so some of the early parts were slightly difficult to see, the entire episode worked perfectly for me. Every one of our main characters and most of the people we love that are equally as important to us all have vastly different looks. It was apparently who was on the screen at all times. I found myself anxious and nervous for the entire run time of the episode. Knowing how the show works, I didn’t want to see characters I cared about at all. If I didn’t see them, they couldn’t die. That makes sense right? I kept yelling, GET ARYA OFF THE SCREEN. NOT TODAY THOUGH!

The imagery of the Dothraki swords all lighting like dominoes falling and then slowly being extinguished was powerful, beautiful and haunting at the same time. That really set the tone for the entire episode. From the chaos and loud confusing violence to the “Alien” like silence of Arya in the library, the episode was exceptional. The shot of the dragons in the peaceful moon light above the fray reminded me of the moment in Matrix Revolutions when Neo and Trinity fly their ship above the clouds and see the sun for a brief moment before returning to the fight. HBO turned a television show into a movie right in front of our eyes and every scene was so well done. If the episode was just about Arya and her point of view in the battle it would have been amazing too. Obviously, Arya is the hero of the night. I cheered like the Steelers won a playoff game on the final play. In a way this kind of reminded me of the Steelers/Colts playoff game from 2005. Arya jumping was the Joey Porter sack on 4^th down. Arya getting grabbed was the Jerome Bettis Fumble. Aryra grabbing the knife with the other hand was the Ben tackle. The final blow was the missed field goal to end the game and bail everyone out. Excellent. Speaking of excellent. THE MEME’S!

 

 

 

So where do we go from here? Who is going to rule the Iron Throne three weeks from now? Check out these updated betting odds.

Jon is almost too obvious and we have seen him give up his titles multiple times. Leader of night’s watch. King of the North. Rightful ruler of the seven kingdoms could be next. I really like Sansa at +650. I could see a Danny dies, Jon wins but doesn’t want to throne scenario. He turns to Sansa who brings in Tyrion as her hand. That would work for me.

 

In terms of the next major death we have some interesting odds.

Look at Ghost showing up now! I don’t have any idea who could be next, but this certainly points to the Mountain and the Hound finally squaring off! What do you think? I can’t wait until next Sunday!

What a crazy few days betting. The Warriors lost at home for the second time these playoffs and cost me three parlays at this point. Man. I did win my series long parlay on all the favorites in round one, but that wasn’t my biggest win. I needed the Nuggets to win in round one, but they were favored in game seven. So I hedged. My hedge came with a caveat. I had a five-point possible middle. I bet the Spurs +6 and hoped Denver won and didn’t cover. Thankfully, the Spurs did whatever they did on that end of game scenario and the Spurs were good. I won both of my bigger wagers and despite a losing record as it shows below, I am actually up after round one of the playoff.

Before round two started I made one wager, I took the Rockets to beat the Warriors at +240. I honestly think they are going to win this series. Yes, they lost game one, but they shot so terribly from behind the arc. If you count game seven from last year that’s two straight games the Rockets couldn’t make a three against the Warriors. That has to flip. I think the Rockets still win this series. But how? Well, the Rockets are not going to win the next four and win in five games. I suppose I could take the Rockets at +350 to win the series. However, I see a better option.

Rockets in 6 +800
Rockets in 7 +850

Both of those wagers seem like a much better plan than taking the Rockets to win the series. After all, they are not winning the next four games in a row. I am going to do just that. I am really invested in the Rockets and Nuggets now. In theory I have hedge opportunities against Golden State in this round and for sure in the next too.

For tonight I am jumping on one game. I know this is a terrible matchup and I know they are going to lose the series, but I like the Sixers +6.5 tonight. This is not a must win, but it feels like they need to have a better showing than game one. If Kawhai and Siakim shoot like that again it won’t matter, but I think Philly puts up a massive fight. Sixers +6.5.

 

Current Open Bet
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 6 +800
6. Rockets in 7 +850

 

 

NBA Record  50-44 (53.19%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 9-18 -50
NBA Playoff Record 3-3 (50%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 1-4 -390
Basketball Total Record 90-77 (53.89%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 12-36 -440
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100