NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The computer has been on fire after two weeks, I have not. I knew last week would be wonky, but not that strange. With two weeks, we have a little more information on all these teams and hopefully we can profit off of it this weekend! As always, I am looking to find five games I like for the Circa Millions picks contest.

LAC +1.5 at PIT
A team has an old resurgent running back, a banged up QB and zero weapons, and is on the road against the best defense in the NFL and bare barely a dog. I get the argument of Herbert is better than Fields, but this is a strength-on-strength game. I am not impressed with the Chargers at this point and the Steelers win in Atlanta looks even better now. Fields ability to run has been the item that keeps this offense moving into field goal range and I think that occurs again. Notice I did not say touchdowns, but in this game 17 points may be more than enough. I like the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +1.5 at IND
I hate both these teams. Neither team can stop the run. Both teams have young fun QB’s. The Bears offensive line is atrocious, and I think that will be the difference. I am hopeful the Colts figure somethings out here and run the ball successfully. Lean Indy.

HOU -2 at MIN
This is the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. This number has come down as professionals are on the Vikings. Despite being 2-0, something feels off with the Texans. I think they will figure it out. Are the Vikings really headed to 3-0? Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing extremely well and the Texans have struggled on the road. Lean Vikings.

NYG +6.5 at CLE
It seems like the Giants are the correct side here. It feels impossible to take Daniel Jones on the road against a good defense. Pass for now, but lean NYG.

PHI +3 at NO
This is the game with the biggest week-to-week spread change. If I told you this was the spread two weeks again you would have assumed that Jalen Hurts was out, and Kenny Pickett was leading the Eagles. I do not know what to make of this game. I do not trust the Saints and think the Eagles have to be better. Yet, the Eagles are all over the place and feel headed for a coaching change in a few months. Pass.

DEN +6.5 at TB
Nope. I am not laying almost a TD with the Bucs. Maybe Denver is better than they have shown losing to Seattle and Pittsburgh, but I am not wagering to find out. Pass.

GB +2 at TEN
Ready to get weird? If Jordan Love is ruled out, I am all about the Titans here. In both of their first two games the Titans defense was solid. They only lost to the Bears because Will Levis made some real choices on protecting the ball. The Titans should have had more points last week as well, but Levis went full Levis again. Titans could easily be 2-0 ATS. The Packers did the best they could to win will Malik Willis last week and had to hold on, despite very little offense. I think the Titans defense will completely shut him down. Titans as a wager and leaning toward contests too. If Love plays, I am out though.

CAR +5 at LVR
Nope. I know the Panthers are the correct side here, but I can not do it. Pass for me.

MIA +4.5 at SEA
Pass. Seattle has not covered either game as a favorite this year. This line is obviously inflated, but I am passing.

DET -3 at ARZ
The Lions dominated last week but had no points to show for it. The Cardinal’s defense was supposed to be bad, and the Bills scored a bunch of points, but the Rams without both starting WR’s and missing four offensive-line starters struggled, go figure. This is a get right spot for the Lions. If Detroit cannot score 28+ this weekend, they are not who we thought they were. Arizona comes back down to Earth here and will see the Lions pass rush get home. Lions as a bet and in picks contest.

BAL -1 at DAL
Pass. I have no clue here. Are the Ravens really going to be 0-3, seems unlikely. Is Dallas as bad as they looked last week, also impossible. Dallas’s pass rush could dominate this terrible Ravens line, but I am skeptical all around. I am out.

SF -7 at LAR
I want to take the Rams so badly. This is still Brock Purdy on the road laying a touchdown, without CMC and Deebo. The Rams are so beat up it is comical. Pass.

KC -3.5 at ATL
The Chiefs have won both their first two games, but they have come down to the wire. I am not thinking of backing Kirk Cousins in primetime, am I? Oh baby, I am. The Chiefs have no running back now. Travis Kelce has slowed down. This feels like a spot the Chiefs start slowly and win a close game. I am taking the home dog getting more than a field goal. Falcons in bets and contests at +3.5.

Jags +5.5 at BUFF
The Jags are the right side here, but I am done with them for now. I thought this offense would have weapons, but it does not appear so. Maybe that is coaching, or the QB, but either way, nope.

WAS +7.5 at CIN
Pass. This game is screaming Bengals blowout win, but are they capable? I am reluctant. We can agree the Commanders defense has been shredded by WR in the first two weeks. I am out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -1.5
DET -3
ATL +3.5
I will post my picks on Twitter/X on Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +4.5

Premium
NYJ +6.5
BAL -1
SF -7
DET -3


Regular Plays
CLE -6
GB +2
CHI +1.5
MIN +2
PHI +2.5
PIT -1.5
DEN +6.5
CAR +5.5
KC -3.5
JAX +5.5
CIN -7.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  19-11 63.33%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 5-2 71.42%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-3 62.5%

My Plays
Overall  4-6 40%

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

How disappointing is 3-2 when you start 3-1. Sadness. Anyway, I have been sick the last few days and that might explain why I am going against my model in a few spots.

LVR +8 at BAL
Ravens always struggle laying more than a touchdown. That Ravens offensive line may struggle with the Raiders pass rush. I am passing, but I am taking Baltimore in Survivor.

SF -5 at MIN
We do not make money by laying points on the road. Pass here.

NO +6 at DAL
I love the Cowboys at home. We get to bet against the Saints here, when we know the Cowboys are going to score. I am on Dallas in bets and contests.

LAC -5 at CAR
I mean, this is our second home dog getting more than a FG, but nope. You know how Tom Brady and the Pats used to break models and conventional norms, well the Panthers may do that in the opposite direction.

IND -3 at GB
I want to take the Packers so badly here, but Malik Willis exists. Pass for me.

TB +7.5 at DET
If the Buc’s defense was healthy, I would be very interested in Tampa Bay. This feels like an easy trap of taking the dog here. I wonder if the public recalls the playoff game. Pass for me.

NYJ -3.5 at TEN
On a short week you want to lay points on the road with an old man at QB? Nope, pass.

SEA -3.5 at NE
I am not laying more than a FG on the road. I am just not.

NYG +1.5 at WAS
I want to jump right back on the Giants, but I am hesitant. I think both of these teams are terrible, but the Giants have to be better than they showed. Lean Giants.

CLE +3 at JAX
The Jags came through last week for us, but could have easily won outright. With a lead they fumbled into the end zone late on Sunday. Part of adjusting and betting NFL, especially in week two is being ready to change your opinions on the fly. The Jags defense did well against the Dolphins. The Browns offense is now missing their stud TE, has a makeshift OL and yeah, their QB might just be washed. I am on the Jags -3 in contests and wagers.


LAR +1 at ARZ
The Cardinals defense was extremely and last week and gave up 14 plays of ten or more yards. I am prepping myself to take the Rams team missing three offensive line starters and no Puka. Lean Rams.

CIN +6 at KC
A year ago I would have jumped on the Bengals. Now, no Higgins, a bad offensive line and a lack of preparation to start the season seems to be plaguing the Bengals. I am leaning KC with the rest advantage, a strong defense and offense that is better than it has ever been.

PIT -2.5 at DEN
This is testing me and my Steeler love so badly. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. Lean Steelers.

CHI +6.5 at HOU
Bears may only have DJ Moore at WR and they struggled with a good defense last week. Lean Houston, but I hate betting favorites.

ATL +6.5 at PHI
Do we all recall how well Kirk Cousins performs in primetime? On the road. In Philly. The Eagles have a rest advantage. Also, Cousins was so immobile last week he took zero snaps from under center. Yes, the Eagles defense is not what it used to be, but I like them here. Eagles in contests and for a wager.

So, here we go I have three games at the moment and need to find two more for contests.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DAL -6
PHI -6.5
JAX -3

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Week 2 Baltimore

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
LAR +1

Premium
SF-6
CLE +3.5
CHI +6.5
ATL +6.5

Regular Plays
BUF +2.5
NO +6
TB +7.5
GB +3
TEN +3.5
NE +3.5
NYG +1.5
CAR +6
BAL -8
DEN +2.5
CIN +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  10-5 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-1 0%

My Plays
Overall  3-2 60%

NFL Week One Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The opening games are nice and all, but I know I prefer Sunday afternoon. Give me multiple games at once. Give me Redzone. Give me a reason to head to my basement and watch my multiple TV’s. Now that we can choose our own multi-view on NFL Sunday ticket, in theory with three TV’s you could watch 12 games at once. The NFL should never have 12 games in the early window, but the way they like to only have a handful in the afternoon, everything is in play. I am debating my setup, but obviously, the Steelers get the main screen for me. My set up is 75 inches in the middle and two 55-inch TV’s flanking on the side. Perhaps the more optimal play is Steelers on one side and a quad box on the main TV. Anyway, we are finally on to week one and all the games. Like last year I am participating in the Circa Millions contest and the DraftKings Pick’em Pool. Both contests require five games to be picked against the spread weekly. The lines in these contests are stagnant and I will mention how they differ. The Steelers are +2.5 on DK, but +3.5 over at Circa. Obviously, they matter a great deal.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +8 at CIN
I hate this game. Joe B is coming back from injury, the Bengals WR room is hurt both physically and mentally due to not having a new contract. The Patriots have no offensive line and will compete for the worst record in the NFL. This is a pass for me. The Bengals have started slowly the last few years in week one and I am not a fan of laying more than a TD with the Bengals in their current situation. When it is 21-0 at half time, I may feel dumb, but we do not need to bet every game. Bengals or Seahawks for survivor though.

ARZ +6.5 at BUF
Remember last year when Damar Hamlin could not even be active for the Bills during the season. Now he is going to start in the secondary. The Bills lost more talent than almost anyone in the NFL from last year and that is before even factoring in injuries they have sustained. Conversely, the Cardinals defense is not good. The Cardinals did not close out last year strongly finishing 2-3. However, the record does not tell the entire story. The Cardinals beat the Steelers in weather in Pittsburgh, got blown out by the Niners, lost in Chicago, beat the Eagles in Philly and then lost by one to Seattle. That is a little better than you would expect from a team that only won four games. Jonathon Gannon proved to be better than anticipated and the Cardinals are going to score. Two bad defenses and the dog has weapons at their disposal. I am on the Cardinals +6.5 in contests and I have bet them.

HOU -3 at IND
Danger! We have a short road divisional favorite. One team is getting all the love as a Super Bowl contender and one team has a QB that has played like 14 games in the last two years. The Colts won this game the first time they played and then lost by four on the road. The Texan’s offense was held to 20 and 23 points in those two matchups. I am not going to tell you to take the Colts as a home dog, but I am telling you to be weary of the Texans. This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. I have the Colts on my short list for contests and if they hits 3.5, I am playing Indy.

PIT +3.5 at ATL
If you are reading this you know I am a Steeler’s homer. Having said that, Mike Tomlin is exceptional as a dog. Both offenses will be vastly different from last year, but I do know this stadium will be half-full of Steeler fans and the Steelers defense is the best unit by far. If the NFL is going to call those offensive tackles for not being on the line-of-scrimmage, the Steelers pass rush is going to eat against a slow, achilles recovering QB that was never exactly a scrambler. If Arthur Smith can not come up with a successful game plan against his former team with months to prepare, then it will be a long season. Steelers +3.5 in contests and I have bet them.

JAX +3.5 at MIA
This game was rumored to have weather, but it appears they may dodge it now. The playbook has been bet Miami at home in September and fade them when the weather turns. This Miami defense is going to be bad and the Jags completely collapsed last year. I hate this game for contests and betting, but I could stack it up for DFS purposes. Pass for now.

TEN +3.5 at CHI
Rookie starters laying points in the NFL have been bad historically. This number has come down as some money has come in on the Titans. That is not your friend Joe Public betting the game. I am passing here, but want to watch.

CAR +4 at NO
The Panthers have been a professional darling, despite never coming through. This week Carolina is becoming a public dog. Always beware the public dog. The Saints will not be good and a QB change seems almost inevitable, not to mention a coaching one too. I want to take the Panthers, but the amount of late love here makes me hesitant. Panthers on the short list for now.

MIN -1.5 at NYG
I am sorry, Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold is a road favorite in the same building he uttered that infamous quote. Was the off-season Hard Knocks that bad for the perception of the Giants? The Giants won six games last year with an F from the quarterback position and no weapons. The defense is going to be better; the offense has to be better as well. If Sam Darnold beats me on the road, so be it. I am willing to take the chance here. NYG +1.5 in contests and as a bet.

DEN +6 at SEA
I am not playing a rookie QB on the road in a difficult stadium with a defensive-minded head coach. I lean Seattle here since Denver is going to be bad this year and have a bottom-five defense. Pass for now.

LVR +3 at LAC
Pass. I want to see what the Chargers are before being on them in any way. The Raiders defense is good, but this is the return match from that blowout-everyone-getting-fired game from last year.

DAL +2.5 at CLE
The Browns have a beat-up new offensive line. The Cowboys have a solid pass rush. Watson has not been good in four years. YEARS! I lean Dallas here. I know the Browns defense was exceptional at home last year, but I just do not believe in Cleveland. Dallas on the short list.

WAS +3.5 at TB
Rookie QB on the road, pass. I think both teams will be bad, but exciting. I am out on betting this game.

LAR +4.5 at DET
This line jumped a full point in the last day. We know Detroit is going to be good and have Super Bowl aspirations, but the Rams offense is going to be solid. I’m not so sure about their defense. Detroit at home as they play almost their entire schedule in doors will score points. I was leaning Rams, but this line movement scares me. Pass for now.

NYJ +4.5 at SF
I am prepared to be disappointed. The Jets are talented and have all the weapons they need to be good. The big question mark is of course at QB. If he is and stays healthy, sky is the limit. I am leaning toward this being a weird start for the Niners from the first-round pick being shot, to the hold outs, to the Aiyuk will he, won’t he thing that dragged on. I think that the Jets play well here and can win this game. I am ready to get hurt again by the Jets here and betting against the Niners in the regular season can be a bad financial decision. I have the Jets +4.5 in contests and a wager as well.

This is where I am. I have four games for my contests and have made four wagers at this point. I will post my contest plays Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Seattle

Computer Model Plays
Premium
PIT +3.5
DAL +2.5

Regular Plays
GB +2.5
BUF -6.5
CHI -4
NE +8
IND +3
MIA -3.5
NO -4
SF -4.5
MIN -1.5
LVR +3
DEN +6
TB -3.5
LAR +3.5

My Plays
PIT +3.5
NYG +1.5
ARZ +6.5
NYJ +4.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  0-1 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-1 0%

My Plays
Overall  0-0 0%

The NFL Is Back!

It feels good to be back. There is something about the seasons of the year and kids going back to school that has a certain rhythm. Football returning is an integral part. I like having NFL Sunday’s to base my weeks around. I like having the comfort and reliability of the NFL. I like being on a schedule in this weird, peculiar way with NFL games to end the week. Perhaps this season and moving forward they will be everyday of the week. For now, this is how I settle into the end of summer.

After working for Numberball for a few years, we returned to regularly posting the model plays and two seasons ago added in my personal plays. I was fortunate to have a fabulous season and finished very highly in the Draft Kings spread picks contest. Last season, while profitable, was not the same. In order to raise the bar so to speak I entered the Circa Millions contest as well as the Draft Kings contests. I finished roughly 3-4 games outside the money in both contests. Disappointing, but learned a lot of things and about my process and how to adjust to making picks a day earlier for Circa.

Here we are, back in our normal rhythm.

Below is the computer model from last season and cumulatively the results since we started running it in 2015. Hard to believe it has almost been a decade. Either way the magic number is 52.4% to be profitable betting NFL, provided you are betting into -110 lines. Reminder, the model is a tool and should be used as such, not the end all be all in making wagers. Still the model is sitting just over 52% in over 2300 NFL games.

This year will be more of the same. I will post the model plays and post my plays as well. I am sitting at a lofty 62% on NFL sides over the last two years. That will regress at some point as it did last year. My volume was way down last season. Advice do not move to a new home during the NFL season and take several trips as well. Those real-life events, coupled with kids sports and all the sudden there are a lot of distractions in your life. This year, we are settled in our new home. Kids sports are in full swing, but I am prepared and ready and will not be moving again for a long time.

On Thursdays I will post the computer model plays and then on Friday I will post my plays. My plays will give more reasoning on where I am leaning and why. If I have the time, I may make my final selections into YouTube Shorts or TikTok videos, but we shall see. Finally, on Sunday morning I will post my official selections for contests on Twitter/X.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!



NFL Computer Model
2023-2024 Season
Overall 134-139 49.08%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-25 48.97%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-30 45.45%

My Plays
2023 Overall  29-20-2 59.18%
2022 Overall 66-36 64.70%
Total 95-56 62.91%

Computer Model History 

2015-2023
Overall 1199 – 1104 52.06%
Premium 255-231 52.40%
Platinum 40-49 44.94%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
2021 138-146 48.59%
2022 130-147 46.93%
2023 134-139 49.08%


Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
2021 28-29 49.12%
2022 25-31 44.64% 
2023 24-25 48.97%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57 %
2021 5-9 35.71%
2022 3-5 37.5%
2023 1-5 16.66%

NFL Super Bowl Wagers and Computer Model Plays

Look, the Niners are better, but there is no way I am not taking Patrick Mahomes as a dog. This is not a random week 7 game. This is the Super Bowl. We have seen this plenty of times where the teams who are used to the unusual nature of the game, longer breaks, longer halftime, more media, and a larger circus in general know how to deal with everything and prepare seem to have an edge. Is that real or perceived? Either way, Brock Purdy has not been great during the playoffs and you can argue that the Niners could have easily lost their last two games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been in control of their playoff games and seem prepared with a viable identity. I am on Kansas City for Sunday.

Of course, there are plenty of weird bets and props to wager on for the game. I have a large list; of wagers I have made. On some of these sites the boosts I can bet are significantly limited. I think you will see exactly where I have used a boost to make an insane wager because my limit is so small.

This is what I have bet, for now, I have included the location of the best prices I could find!

KC +2.5
Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -105 ESPN Bet
Purdy Over 11.5/Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards +285 ESPN Bet
Purdy Over 3.5 Rushes +125 ESPN Bet
Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushes -125 ESPN BET
Chris Jones over 0.25 Sacks +125 DK
KC +7.5/UNDER 54.5 -110 MGM
KC +7.5/UNDER 54.5/Pacheco 50+ Rushing +125 MGM
Pacheco 68+/TD/KC WIN +380 DK
Purdy 12.5+/Pacheco 50+/KC+7.5/Under 54.5 +320 DK
KC to score more points than Porzingis Sunday -140 DK
Swifty Special Mahomes 15+ Rush and 215+ Pass -140 DK
Purdy to throw an INT -120 MGM
Pacheco 54+/Purdy INT/KC+7.5/Under 55.5/Butker 5+ points +568 MGM
Pacheco 94+/Pacheco TD/KC +2.5/Purdy 15+ Rushing/Under 55.5/Purdy INT/Butker 5+ Points +6320 MGM

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium


Regular
SF -2


NFL
KC +2

NFL Computer Model
Overall 134-138 49.26%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-25 48.97%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-30 45.45%

Our Plays
Overall  28-20-2 58.33%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

NFL Wild Card Weekend Wagers and Computer Model Plays

The playoffs are fun, but even more so when your team is playing. I want the Steelers to play well and win of course, but I think they can. In a blizzard with 40 MPH winds anything is literally in play.

CLE -2 at HOU
The Browns defense is severely beat up and the Texans were not healthy at all during their last meeting. CJ Stroud did not even play in that previous game. There is still some injury news we are waiting on for this game, but I am leaning toward the Texans. The Browns defense has been worse on the road and with some secondary injuries popping late in the week, Cleveland may have to make changes today to prepare for tomorrow. Is this the week Joe Flacco finally turns back into Joe Flacco? I think so, if the Texans pass rush is healthy and playing. I lean Houston, but am waiting to make a wager tomorrow.

MIA +4.5 at KC
I bet the Chiefs -3.5 on Monday morning. This was before the weather news was really out there. My wager has nothing to do with weather, but more to do with the Dolphins signing people this week to play defensive end Saturday in Arrowhead. The Dolphins injuries on defense are significant and of course the weather will matter. I know it will be cold for Kansas City as well, but living in Florida and coming into this Saturday night is going to be insane. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled, but this is a wager on their defense and running game. KC -4.5.

PIT +10 at BUFF
I am completely biased, however, I think one team is much more physical. The Steelers have an identity and are a completely different team than they were just four weeks ago. TJ being out is going to hurt a ton of course, but the weather and snow is going to make this an interesting situation. Strong winds and possible blizzard conditions will make throwing difficult. Josh Allen should run the ball plenty of times. If Gabe Davis sits, the Steelers can put JPJ on Diggs and then really focus on Cooks and Allen. The Steelers middle linebackers do make me weary of them, but I think the weather neutralizes any speed advantage the Bills may have. This game will be tight and close and I hope it is Allen that needs to make a late drive and not Mason. Steelers +10.

GB +7 at DAL
Everyone seems to like the Packers and the points, but why? Green Bay’s defense was shredded by everyone not names Justin Fields and Jaren Hall. Byrce Young put up 30 points. Baker Mayfield put up 34 points. Tommy Devito put up 24 points. What is the juggernaut Dallas going to do at home? Put up points. This feels like the blowout spot of the weekend to me. Dallas will score and Jordan Love has his first playoff game jitters and the Cowboys roll. Dallas -7.

LAR +3 at DET
Last year the Giants were the week one dog we were all on and here we go again. The Rams are healthy and really have it together on offense. Since Kyren Williams returned the Rams have scored 37, 36, 31, 28, 30, and 26 points. The Lions have had just enough injuries on offense that they may struggle to score. Sean McVay clearly knows Jared Goff well and the Matt Stafford narrative is strong here. LAR +3.

PHI -3 at TB
Both teams are not good. The Eagles seems to be done and suffered another injury in their secondary. I will tentatively lean to the home dog that can throw it around. Lean TB.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
PIT +10

Regular
HOU +2.5
MIA +4.5
GB +7
LAR +3
TB +3



NFL
KC -4.5
PIT +10
DAL -7
LAR +3

Let’s Get Weird
HOU ML/KC ML/PIT ML/DAL ML/LAR ML +5000
HOU +8/KC -2.5/PIT +17.5/DAL -1.5/LAR +9.5/TB +9.5 +550

Anytime TD Parlay
Nicol Collins/Pacheco/Najee Harris/Lamb/Kyren Williams/Mike Evans +6200

NFL Computer Model
Overall 131-133 49.62%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-24 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-29 46.29%

Our Plays
Overall  24-17-2 58.53%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

NFL Week 18 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

It is the last weekend of Redzone. Sadness. Hopefully, my Steelers win on Saturday, and we have a little playoff sweat for the rest of the weekend. I am on the Steelers Saturday and the Patriots Sunday. Those are my two primary wagers at this point in the week. I am sure I will do more!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
BAL +3
CLE +7
SF-4

Regular
KC+3.5
HOU -1.5
MIN +3.5
JAX -3.5
NE -2.5
NO -3
TB -4.5
CHI +3
DEN +3
PHI -5.5
SEA -3
DAL -13.5
MIA +2.5



Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
NE -2
PITT -3

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 126-122 50.80%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-26 49.01%

Our Plays
Overall  23-16-2 58.97%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

NFL Week 15 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We have the NFL on Saturday! Nothing says family and Christmas like NFL during the Holidays!

PIT +1.5 at IND –
I am prepared to lose money on Mitch. Steelers defense appears to be healthy and the Colts struggle to stop the run. Steelers in wagers and picks contests.

NYJ +9.5 at MIA –
I am leaning Jets here with the Miami offensive line being so injured. I doubt I will get there, but I wanted to mention it.


NYG +5.5 at NO –
This line makes very little sense to me. We have watched the Saints struggle all year long. The spot is a little difficult with the Giants being on a short week and traveling. The Giants are playing better and moving the ball now. I am on the Giants in wagers and picks contests.

CHI + 3 at CLE –
This feels like a number that should be bigger. I am guessing on Sunday morning the public looks at this and then says oh the Browns are solid. Cleveland meanwhile has so many injuries, especially on the offensive line and now the immobile Joe Flacco is behind that line. I like Fields to play well and run and the Bears to be live here. Bears in wagers and contests.

HOU +3 at TEN –
Stroud is going to sit and all the sudden this is the Texans offense from last year on the road. Tennessee in bets and picks contests.

Tread Lightly –
The Rams played an OT game against Baltimore and travel home and Washington is coming off a bye week. Massive rest advantage for the Commanders>

Buffalo seems like the right spot with the narrative of Dallas struggling on the road. Yeah, the Bills secondary is still beat up and now the pass-first Cowboys come to town. I lean Dallas. I have used them in teasers already. I bet this teaser. PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2. Some how I am most worried about the Chiefs on the road despite Mitch being involved.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 4 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 5 Detroit (WIN)
Week 6 Miami (WIN)
Week 7 Seattle (WIN)
Week 8 LA Chargers (WIN)
Week 9 Cleveland (WIN)
Week 10 Dallas (WIN)
Week 11 Washington (LOSE)
Week 12 Titans (WIN)
Week 13 Pittsburgh (LOSE)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
DAL +2
SF -13.5

Regular
MIN +3.5
PIT +1.5
DEN +4.5
CHI +3
TB +3.5
HOU +3
MIA -8.5
NE +8.5
NYG +6
ATL -3
WAS +6.5
BAL -3.5
SEA +3.5



Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
PIT +1.5
TEN -3
CHI +3
NYG +5.5

6-Point NFL Teaser
PIT +7.5/DAL +8/KC -2


College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 103-97 51.51%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 20-19 51.28%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 21-24 46.66%

Our Plays
Overall  23-13-1 63.88%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

NFL Week 13 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I am shocked this season seems to have gone so quickly. It is actually December. We have to purchase, wrap and give out Christmas gifts in 25 days. I am not ready for this.

I am barely ready for week 13!

ARZ +5.5 at PIT – Beware Tomlin as a favorite of three of more. This feels almost too easy. You can run on Arizona. The Steelers want to run it a ton. Arizona struggles to score; the Steelers have not given up 20 or more in 7 weeks. I lean Pittsburgh but am leery to lay this many points. I mean just wait until next Thursday.

IND -1 at TEN – I hate this game. Minshew has been bad on the road and the Titans are not good. Pass.

LAC -5.5 at NE – The Chargers are a dead team heading for an exaction. The coach will be gone, and they need to make some changes. Austin Ekeler looks slow, their first-round pick looks like a bust and their defense can not stop anyone. Yet, they are laying almost six points on the road. OL. I am not telling you what to do, but you have to be out of your mind to take the Chargers here. Pass for me. If the Pats even had a pulse I would be all over them.

DET -4.5 at NO – The Lions look like they are falling apart and they truly are on defense. The Saints have no healthy WR, seriously, they might not have anyone over 3.2K on Draft Kings. I think we forget how bad the NFC South is at times. I lean Detroit. This feels like a good get-right spot for the Lions.

ATL -2 at NYJ – A whole bunch of nope here.

MIA -9.5 at WAS – I am not laying almost ten on the road, even if it is the Commanders. I have been weary of the Dolphins pass defense and we know Washington will be throwing it a ton. If this was in Miami I would like the Dolphins, but not on the road. I lean Commanders, but pass for now.

DEN +3 at HOU – The Broncos defense has turned a corner and they just keep forcing turnovers. I could see Houston turning it over in this one. The Texans have not covered as a favorite this year. Pass for me.

CAR +5 at TB – I am left in one survivor contest and may use the Bucs this week. I hate it. That is how I feel about this game.

CLE +3.5 at LAR – Is Myles Garrett going to play? Is Joe Flacco really going to start? I kind of like Cleveland if the defense is healthy. Pass for now.

SF -3 at PHI – There is an obvious rest advantage for the Niners here playing on Thanksgiving while the Eagles played almost an entire 5th quarter late Sunday evening. The Eagles have no healthy middle linebackers and the Niners will take advantage of that. One of the things people are not discussing is how Jalen Hurts was pressured a ton in the first half last week. I think San Fran gets pressure and gets up early on the Eagles. No Philly magic this week. I am on the Niners -3 in wagers and contests.

KC -6 at GB – Did the Chiefs get their mojo back last week? Green Bay is obviously playing well losing a close game to the Steelers, beating the Chargers and Lions. This is another case of a team with rest advantage, but as a home dog. I am in. I think Jordan Love has put something together and this will be competitive. Packers in wagers and contests.

CIN +8.5 at JAX – How will the Bengals score and stop the Jags? If you told me 6 weeks ago I would lay this many with the Jags I would have laughed. It literally took two tipped pass completions, a wrongly called incomplete pass and a weird fumble that Dionte Johnson did not notice for the Bengals to hang around and score a whopping ten points at home last week. Bengals are done. Jags are grinding games out with their defense. I am on the Jags in wagers and contests.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 4 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 5 Detroit (WIN)
Week 6 Miami (WIN)
Week 7 Seattle (WIN)
Week 8 LA Chargers (WIN)
Week 9 Cleveland (WIN)
Week 10 Dallas (WIN)
Week 11 Washington (LOSE)
Week 12 Titans (WIN)
Week 13 Tampa Bay

Computer Model Plays
Platinum




Premium
CLE +3.5
SF -3

Regular Plays
DAL -9
IND -1
NE +6
DET -4
NYJ +2
PIT -5.5
MIA -9.5
HOU -3.5
TB -5.5
GB +6
CIN +9.5


Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
SF -3
JAX -8.5
GB +6


College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 87-84 50.87%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 18-18 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 19-23 45.23%

Our Plays
Overall  21-12-1 63.63%
College Football 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200