The dark times are ahead. We only have three NFL games left in the season. I know, we have the NBA from now until June, but still. I will of course do some golf stuff. You might also seem some random stuff about shows I have watched and enjoyed. Why and what NFT’s I have purchased. (Fame Lady Squad!) In addition, who knows what else I end up writing about. Will NFL All Day ever have a market place? Who knows? Will I buy a pack every week with no idea of the value and if I can sell them? Also, yes. Until the dark times we still have two games this weekend!         

KC -7/-7.5 vs. CIN
I listed both spreads because they are both out there right now. Depending upon which side you come down. When these two teams’ plays in week 17, the Chiefs did not play well yet had two different 14-point leads. Both times, big plays to Chase helped the Bengals get back in the game. Several Chiefs players were just returning from Covid and the game was in Cincinnati. I said it last week and I will say it again. Patrick Mahomes only playoff losses have come at the hands of Tom Brady. I get a superior team at home against a team that has barely advanced the last two weeks. The Raiders had a chance to tie the game late. Despite three turnovers, the Titans could have easily won and covered had they not failed on 3^rd and 4^th and short in that game. The Bengals cannot block up front. If the Chiefs jump out early, then the Bengals running game may have to disappear. That would allow the improved Chiefs pass rush to get after that weak Bengals offensive line. If you are doing a same game parlay (SGP), you should throw in the Chiefs to record at least one sack to boost it up. Since that week 17 game CEH is back and Jerrick McKinnon now exists. It appears the Chiefs will be healthy. Is there a doubt that Kansas City is going to score 30+? If you like the Bengals, you should take the over on their team total at 23.5. I know the Chiefs are getting 30+ Sunday, I think this is as far as the Bengals can go until their offensive line improves and their defense gets faster. I am on the Chiefs -7. I would grab this number while it still exists at some books.

SF +3.5 at LAR
I am 1-1 on each team this posts season. I was on the right side the first weekend and the wrong side last weekend. This is obviously, the third matchup for these two teams. This might seem stupid, but I think Jimmy G is healthy and going to play very well. The Niners defense is much better than I want to give them credit. They are actually healthy and their zone has given Matthew Stafford problems in the other games this season. I know this may be surprising, but Stafford has not thrown a pick this post-season. I believe that changes Sunday. My real concern is that it feels like everyone is on the Niners +3.5. I realize I am a victim of bubble syndrome where everyone in my little bubble in life and online likes the same side. That is scary. I suppose I will just never believe in Matthew Stafford, especially in a big game. We already know this crowd is going to be split. We know the Niners will figure out a way to run the ball. While I do love the Niners +3.5., I also have them on the money line. Both these coaches have been the Super Bowl recently, but I think we are getting a rematch of Niners and Chiefs. If the Rams are smart, they will come out throwing and be diverse with targets. The Packers had players open, but Aaron Rodgers refused to see his other options. I think Jimmy G shocks everyone, plays really well and the Niners offense is the story. Stafford will turn it over and the Niners will be put in a weird Trey Lance spot in the off season.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium



Regular Plays
CIN +7.5
SF +3.5

I will update the odds boosts this weekend, when they are posted!

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 SGP for the weekend. You get $10 in bonus money if you lose.

Draft Kings
$25 SGP for each game (Opt in required)
If you lose on either you get a $25 free bet. Do this for each game!

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
SF and KC to win +260 (FOX)
This should pay +217. I am on these two teams. I am in! My max bet was very small though.

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 136-145 48.39%
Playoffs 5-5 50%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 31-26 54.38%
Playoffs 5-5 50%
NFL Props 2-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 17-47 -1515
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 39-28 58.20%
Odds Boosts 20-47 -1215
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
PHI -4
MIN +6.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Embiid to score 30 points and Maxey to score 15 points +150 (FD)
Embiid’s prop is set to 33.5.
Maxey’s prop is set to 17.5.
This parlay should pay -102. This is a fantastic boost. Both players are expected to exceed this number. I am in.

The DK boosts are awful. Pass.


Lakers and Warriors to win +275 (FOX)
The Lakers are dogs and Lebron may sit. Pass. This should pay +256.


Curry/Klay/Edwards to all make 3+ threes +250 (FOX)
Curry’s prop is set to 3.5 and the over is juiced.
Klay’s prop is set to 2.5 and the over is juiced.
Edwards prop is set to 3.5 and the under is juiced.
This should pay +245. This is such a small boost I am passing.

Embiid to have 30 and 10 and Sixers to win +230 (Barstool)
This should pay +162. I am in. I think LeBron may sit and this can be a smash spot. I am down!


KAT and Curry to score 25+ each +350 (Barstool)
This should pay +283. Mehhhh, this is on the border, both players prop is under this number, but barely. Curry is 24.5. KAT is 23.5. I am passing, but it is not crazy to play this.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-13 -031
Hoops Odds Boosts 32-44 +1876
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 322-309 51.03%

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ORL -2
CHA -2.5
MIL -4
ATL -10
MIA -6
DEN -2.5
CHI -3
SAS +4
PHO -1.5
DAL -4

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden and Jokic to each record 10+ assists +250 (FD)
This should pay +190. I mean, why not. I am going to play their other props, might as well. I am in.


JA/LUKA/Booker to each score 25+ +200 (FD)
Ja’s prop is set to 29.5.
Luka’s prop is set to 27.5.
Booker’s prop is set to 28.5.
This parlay should pay +148. I am in. Everyone is expected to be a range well above this number.

Harden and Jokic to each record a triple double +900 (FOX)
Thus should pay +748. This is wild and insane, but I am in! Both guys will be asked to do it all for their offense.


IND/ATL/MIA to all win +275 (Fox)
This should pay +276. Pass. It is not a boost.

ATL/MIA/MEM to all win +200 (Barstool)
This should pay +158. If Memphis was not on the road I would be in. Yes, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, but they barely had to play last night. You can fire here, I am passing.

Jokic and Harden to each score 25+ +180 (Barstool)
Harden’s prop is set to 27.5.
Jokic’s prop is set to 27.5.
This should pay +131. I am in!

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-13 -031
Hoops Odds Boosts 32-43 +1976
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 315-306 %

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
WAS -4.5
DEN -7.5
CHA +2.5
NOP +11
LAL -3
SAC +9
SAS -5
GSW -3.5
POR +3

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Curry and Luka to make 8+ combined 3’s +195 (DK)
Back with the combined stuff. You can parlay them to go over their prop at a lower combined number for +231. Pass for me.


LeBron to score 15+ in each half +340 (DK)
We do not bet timed boosts, plus the Lakers are healthy.

LeBron/Harden/Luka/Curry to each make 2+ 3’s +170 (FD)
This should pay +118. I am in. Everyone will be taking more than enough shots to get there. I am down!


TOR/WAS/BRK to all win +450 (FOX)
The Nets are home dogs. They always throw in a dog. This should pay +490. Easy pass.

Luka and Steph to each score 25+ points +235 (Barstool)
Luka’s prop is set to 26.5.
Steph’s is set to 24.5.
This should pay +195. Steph has been ice cold. Yet, I am going to ride with this one. It is a boost and it should be a close game. I am in.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-13 -031
Hoops Odds Boosts 31-42 +1906
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 310-302 50.65%

The NFL is off tonight and the NBA comes back with only four games. Even WWE knows how to schedule around the NFL. Come on NBA!

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NYK +6.5
IND +3.5
CHI -2.5
UTA +9

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
FLA/KAN/USC to all win +180 (FD)
Florida is a four-point road favorite.
This should pay +132. Florida is the smallest favorite and on the road. Both Kansas and USC should win and are decently sized favorites. I am going to take a risk here and look at this as Florida just needing to win on the road for this boost. I am in.

Allen and Garland to combine for 40+ points +230 (DK)
DK is back with the combined boosts.
Garlan’d prop is set to 20.5.
Allen’s prop is set to 13.5. Per usual, no matter how you slice this, it is always better to parlay. You can parlay Garland to score 25+ and Allen to score 15+ and that plays +487. I would rather do that than this boost. Pass for me.



Booker to record 45+ points/Assists/Rebounds +310 (DK)
Booker’s combo prop is set to 37.5. You can create a same game parlay to get to this same combo at a much better price. Seriously, pick any combo. If you do, 35 points/5 rebounds/5 assists pays +900. That is significantly better. Considering it is far more likely Booker goes over on points, I would rather do that. Pass on this boost.

NOP/CHI/PHO to all win +300 (Fox)
This should pay +267. I am very weary of the Bulls on the road missing several key players. I am out on this. If for some reason people get ruled in for the Bulls, we can revisit. Until that time, pass.


CLE/CHI/PHO to all win +250 (Barstool)
This should pay +209. I feel the same as above. The Bulls make me want to pass. I am out.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-13 -031
Hoops Odds Boosts 31-41 +2006
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 308-300 50.65%

Remember how we were all worried about Matt Stafford after he struggled down the stretch. The Rams blew out an overmatched Cardinals team and now the Rams are only 2.5-point dogs? What is happening here? If the TB offensive line is healthy, this line seems insanely low. Yet, our model has it at Rams +2. Again, I cannot do it. I get Tom Brady at home against a inferior quarterback? Stafford is going from winning his first ever playoff game to now beating Brady on the road? The lone caveat is if the Bucs line injuries are significant and both the center and tackle sit. Of course, that provides several issues for Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rams an injured secondary and Brady will have his chances to hit open receivers. It is a little scary who Brady will be throwing to,  but if those non-Mike Evans receivers make plays the Bucs should win here. When this line dipped to Bucs -2.5, I snatched it up. I am on Tampa Bay here.

The last game is the best game of the weekend. This is the game; I could realistically see going either way. All the games could go either way, but this one I have significantly less conviction. I did bet a Josh Allen prop for this game that I listed below. To boil this down simply, no one has taken advantage of, or had the players to attack the Bills secondary. Tampa Bay carved the Bills up and Buffalo has not exactly played any passing game that can really attack down the field. Now, I get Patrick Mahomes laying under a field goal. At Home? MOREOVER, NO ONE LIKES THEM? People are not immune to being prisoners of the moment. The Bills looked exceptional last weekend, and yes, we were on them. Maybe I am the fool. Maybe the Bills are ready to ascend past the Chiefs. To become the king you have to kill the king in the NFL. If the Bills can go into Kansas City for the second time this season and win another night game, they deserve it all. The winner of this game will be favored next week, no matter who or where they play. I am taking the Chiefs -1.5. Everyone seems to have forgotten what the Chiefs are capable of and that their defense improved. If everyone is on the Bills, I am more than happy to go the other direction.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
BUFF +2


Regular Plays
CIN +3.5
SF +5.5
LAR +3

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Brady and Stafford to each have 1+ passing TD’s in each half +350
We do not bet time dependent boosts.

PMI super boost
Bills to win and Allen to have 1+ passing TD +200
If you like the Bills you have to be on this. Allen is going to throw one passing TD. I may do this, even while I am betting the Chiefs, because it is $50 max and +200.

Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.
 Here are mine!

Brady to throw for 350+ passing yards +450
This pays +320 on FD. Brady’s prop is set for 289.5. I realize his offensive line could be an issue and a lack of weapons as well. I think this is a big Playoff Lenny game. I am passing here, but this is a good price.

Allen to record 3+ passing TD’s +250
Allen’s prop is set to 1.5 and the over is massively juiced. This is going to be a high scoring game and this is a fair price. I am going to play this. I think Allen can get there and the Chiefs still win.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money. .

Brady to throw 2+ TD passes +100
This is a fair price, I am going to play this. I am in.


KC and TB to win +225
This should pay +191. I am going to wait here and see if the TB offensive line is healthy. If it is, I am in. However, if the line keeps moving toward the Bills, this boost may become less valuable. Take your time here. This is getting worse and worse as the KC line drops. Pass. By the time the game starts, this is going to be what the price may be.

Let’s Get Weird
Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Barstool)
DK has this at 50.5. FD has it much higher at 52.5. Always shop around.
Allen averages 60.6 yards rushing in the playoffs. When it matters as the playoffs dog, Allen runs more. Last year in a game they trailed the entire time, he ran for 88 yards. I think he does so Sunday night.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 133-144 48.01%
Playoffs 2-4 33.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-28 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-37 47.14%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 30-23 56.60%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 16-45 -1565
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154 Combined
Overall 38-25 60.31%
Odds Boosts 19-45 -1265
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521

I ended up going 4-2 last weekend. The Steelers was an emotional selection and the Eagles just were crushed. The Saturday games were my largest wagers and they were not much of a sweat really. This is such a fantastic football weekend and I am so excited.

Three of the games this weekend, I have a side that I really like. I have only bet two of them at this point though. So, why is that the case? Well, I am waiting for a better number. In one of the games, I am really struggling to make my selections. Please shop around for lines as you can find Buffalo at +2 or +1.5. The same can be said for the Rams at +3 or +2.5, depending on the time and the book.

The last few years, the spread has almost not mattered. Just pick the winner and bet that side with the spread. It actually has mattered less and less. This weekend, that could be the case as well as we have some very small numbers. Just like last week, I am going to pick every game. I will go by the order in which the games are played, which also fits with the order I like the games.

I get the hesitation. They lost to the Jets. They lost to the Texans. They have not been healthy for weeks. Yet, they are still the number one seed. The Bengals have been up and down all year long. As a Steeler fan, I have waited for the Bengals to have a big win and come crashing back to Earth. I have wagered against them multiple times, profitably. I have been on them multiple times, profitably. Last week was the Bengals heroic moment to get the playoff win that has eluded them for decades. This week, they come crashing back down.

Derrick Henry is back, the Bengals lost their best run stuffer last week. The Titans offense is healthy and finally all together. How much Julio Jones matters, who can say. However, I know that offense is vastly different with Henry as the lead back. The Titans play action passes will be much improved. AJ Brown will be running free through that Bengal secondary. Quietly, the Titans front four has put together a solid season. My only real hesitation in this game is if Joe Burrow can quickly hit his wide receivers. Having said all that, no one believes in the Titans. I was on the Bengals last week and frankly, they should have won by more points. There were some issues and they struggled more than I anticipated. The Titans offense will present too many problems for Cincinnati. Next year the Bengals will be a formidable playoff opponent. First, they need to fix the defense. The Titans will exploit those defensive holes and remind everyone how they earned the number one seed. The largest bet I have made this weekend is the Titans -3.5.

The amount of people I know who love Jimmy G in Green Bay when it is going to be very cold is strange to me. Yes, you can run on Green Bay. Yes, the Packers have lost home playoff games plenty of times. It is still a banged up Jimmy G on the road in Wisconsin. Maybe, I am jaded. I think the Niners secondary is awful. I believe the Packers are going to throw and score. Rodgers does not fail at scoring in the playoffs. His defense may let him down, but he is going to get points. Since 2012, which gives us almost ten years of playoff history, the Packers have scored at least twenty points in every single playoff game. Two of those twenty point games were losses to the Niners.

The Packers are getting healthy for the first time pretty much all season. If you notice a trend here of who is getting healthy, that is who I want to back. This line does seem inflated. Our computer model has this as Green Bay minus one point. I believe that is wrong. I have yet to bet this game as I am waiting to see where this line moves. It has gone up to six, but it is back to 5.5. Outside of the Niners running all over the Packers, which is in play, I do not see San Fran winning here. I believe the Packers are the most complete team in the NFC by far. When it is 21-3 Green Bay at half time, do not say I did not warn you. Give me the Packers -5.5. If Jimmy G plays well, I lose. I am willing to take that risk.

Remember how we were all worried about Matt Stafford after he struggled down the stretch. The Rams blew out an overmatched Cardinals team and now the Rams are only 2.5-point dogs? What is happening here? If the TB offensive line is healthy, this line seems insanely low. Yet, our model has it at Rams +2. Again, I cannot do it. I get Tom Brady at home against a inferior quarterback? Stafford is going from winning his first ever playoff game to now beating Brady on the road? The lone caveat is if the Bucs line injuries are significant and both the center and tackle sit. Of course, that provides several issues for Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rams an injured secondary and Brady will have his chances to hit open receivers. It is a little scary who Brady will be throwing to,  but if those non-Mike Evans receivers make plays the Bucs should win here. When this line dipped to Bucs -2.5, I snatched it up. I am on Tampa Bay here.

The last game is the best game of the weekend. This is the game; I could realistically see going either way. All the games could go either way, but this one I have significantly less conviction. I did bet a Josh Allen prop for this game that I listed below. To boil this down simply, no one has taken advantage of, or had the players to attack the Bills secondary. Tampa Bay carved the Bills up and Buffalo has not exactly played any passing game that can really attack down the field. Now, I get Patrick Mahomes laying under a field goal. At Home? MOREOVER, NO ONE LIKES THEM? People are not immune to being prisoners of the moment. The Bills looked exceptional last weekend, and yes, we were on them. Maybe I am the fool. Maybe the Bills are ready to ascend past the Chiefs. To become the king you have to kill the king in the NFL. If the Bills can go into Kansas City for the second time this season and win another night game, they deserve it all. The winner of this game will be favored next week, no matter who or where they play. I am taking the Chiefs -1.5. Everyone seems to have forgotten what the Chiefs are capable of and that their defense improved. If everyone is on the Bills, I am more than happy to go the other direction.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
BUFF +2


Regular Plays
CIN +3.5
SF +5.5
LAR +3

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Nothing is listed yet.

Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money. .

Titans and Packers to win +120
This should pay +115. This is such a small boost; there is no need to play it. Just bet the games you like here.


KC and TB to win +225
This should pay +191. I am going to wait here and see if the TB offensive line is healthy. If it is, I am in. However, if the line keeps moving toward the Bills, this boost may become less valuable. Take your time here.

Let’s Get Weird
Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Barstool)
DK has this at 50.5. FD has it much higher at 52.5. Always shop around.
Allen averages 60.6 yards rushing in the playoffs. When it matters as the playoffs dog, Allen runs more. Last year in a game they trailed the entire time, he ran for 88 yards. I think he does so Sunday night.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 133-144 48.01%
Playoffs 2-4 33.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-28 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-37 47.14%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 30-23 56.60%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 16-45 -1565
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 38-25 60.31%
Odds Boosts 19-45 -1265
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521

Have you noticed the proliferation of first basket boosts and parlays? They are insanely profitable for the books. Please avoid them.

Oh, we can have fun tonight. I am throwing out an SGP, that I am sure will crash and burn, but is centered on the two players who dictate everything.

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CHA -8.5
LAL -5
PHI -8.5
ATL -1.5
BOS -8.5
WAS -1
CHI +10.5
BRK -1
DET +14.5
MEM +3.5
GSW -11

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
DDR and Vuc to record 50+ combined points +170 (DK)
Here we go again DK.
DDR’s prop is set to 26.5.
Vuc’s prop is set to 19.5 and the under is juiced.
Just parlay them to both go over for +266 instead if you like this. In addition, you need a lot less points. Pass on this boost.


Ja and Jokic to combine for 70+ points and assists combined +110 (DK)
Come on. Every night?
This game has a small spread and a nice total of 224.
Ja’s prop combo is set to 35.5 and the over is juiced.
Jokic’s prop combo is set to 34.5 and the over is juiced.
Again, just parlay these things instead of this combined stuff. They are expected to land in this range, but at +110, I am passing. Just parlay them to go over their prop numbers in points and assists for +1241. They would need 71 (added up, not combined) to get there. I would much rather go for this risk. In fact, I am going to bet a SGP of this game. More on that later. Pass on this boost.

LAL/PHI/TOR to all win +300 (FOX)
This should pay around +268. Ehhh, the Raptors are small one-point dogs, but the other two should play well. I am out. I am more into larger favorites parlayed together.



Embiid to score 30+ with 10+ rebounds and Philly to win +270 (Barstool)
This parlay should pay +205. This is very fair; the only issue is if the short-handed Clippers can stay in the game. I am passing, but you can fire as this price is solid and Embiid has been crushing.



Ja and Jokic to each score 25+ +175 (Barstool)
Ja’s prop is set to 27.5
Jokic’s prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
This parlay should pay +140. I am in. Small spread and completive game. Both people have been playing out of their minds. I am in.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird
SGP on FD
Ja Over 27.5 points/Jokic over 26.5 points/Jokic 10+ rebounds/JA over 8.5 assists/Jokic over 8.5 Assists +1428
I think this game is high scoring and we know where the scoring is coming from.  

I am ready to get hurt here. We have plenty of large spreads, so a money line parlay is in order.
CHA/PHI/BOS/MIL/UTA/GSW ML Parlay +222 (DK)

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-11 +169
Hoops Odds Boosts 30-41 +1831
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 292-292 50%

I ended up going 4-2 last weekend. The Steelers was an emotional selection and the Eagles just were crushed. The Saturday games were my largest wagers and they were not much of a sweat really. This is such a fantastic football weekend and I am so excited.

Three of the games this weekend, I have a side that I really like. I have only bet two of them at this point though. So, why is that the case? Well, I am waiting for a better number. In one of the games, I am really struggling to make my selections. Please shop around for lines as you can find Buffalo at +2 or +1.5. The same can be said for the Rams at +3 or +2.5, depending on the time and the book.

The last few years, the spread has almost not mattered. Just pick the winner and bet that side with the spread. It actually has mattered less and less. This weekend, that could be the case as well as we have some very small numbers. Just like last week, I am going to pick every game. I will go by the order in which the games are played, which also fits with the order I like the games.

I get the hesitation. They lost to the Jets. They lost to the Texans. They have not been healthy for weeks. Yet, they are still the number one seed. The Bengals have been up and down all year long. As a Steeler fan, I have waited for the Bengals to have a big win and come crashing back to Earth. I have wagered against them multiple times, profitably. I have been on them multiple times, profitably. Last week was the Bengals heroic moment to get the playoff win that has eluded them for decades. This week, they come crashing back down.

Derrick Henry is back, the Bengals lost their best run stuffer last week. The Titans offense is healthy and finally all together. How much Julio Jones matters, who can say. However, I know that offense is vastly different with Henry as the lead back. The Titans play action passes will be much improved. AJ Brown will be running free through that Bengal secondary. Quietly, the Titans front four has put together a solid season. My only real hesitation in this game is if Joe Burrow can quickly hit his wide receivers. Having said all that, no one believes in the Titans. I was on the Bengals last week and frankly, they should have won by more points. There were some issues and they struggled more than I anticipated. The Titans offense will present too many problems for Cincinnati. Next year the Bengals will be a formidable playoff opponent. First, they need to fix the defense. The Titans will exploit those defensive holes and remind everyone how they earned the number one seed. The largest bet I have made this weekend is the Titans -3.5.

The amount of people I know who love Jimmy G in Green Bay when it is going to be very cold is strange to me. Yes, you can run on Green Bay. Yes, the Packers have lost home playoff games plenty of times. It is still a banged up Jimmy G on the road in Wisconsin. Maybe, I am jaded. I think the Niners secondary is awful. I believe the Packers are going to throw and score. Rodgers does not fail at scoring in the playoffs. His defense may let him down, but he is going to get points. Since 2012, which gives us almost ten years of playoff history, the Packers have scored at least twenty points in every single playoff game. Two of those twenty point games were losses to the Niners.

The Packers are getting healthy for the first time pretty much all season. If you notice a trend here of who is getting healthy, that is who I want to back. This line does seem inflated. Our computer model has this as Green Bay minus one point. I believe that is wrong. I have yet to bet this game as I am waiting to see where this line moves. It has gone up to six, but it is back to 5.5. Outside of the Niners running all over the Packers, which is in play, I do not see San Fran winning here. I believe the Packers are the most complete team in the NFC by far. When it is 21-3 Green Bay at half time, do not say I did not warn you. Give me the Packers -5.5. If Jimmy G plays well, I lose. I am willing to take that risk.

Remember how we were all worried about Matt Stafford after he struggled down the stretch. The Rams blew out an overmatched Cardinals team and now the Rams are only 2.5-point dogs? What is happening here? If the TB offensive line is healthy, this line seems insanely low. Yet, our model has it at Rams +2. Again, I cannot do it. I get Tom Brady at home against a inferior quarterback? Stafford is going from winning his first ever playoff game to now beating Brady on the road? The lone caveat is if the Bucs line injuries are significant and both the center and tackle sit. Of course, that provides several issues for Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rams an injured secondary and Brady will have his chances to hit open receivers. It is a little scary who Brady will be throwing to,  but if those non-Mike Evans receivers make plays the Bucs should win here. When this line dipped to Bucs -2.5, I snatched it up. I am on Tampa Bay here.

The last game is the best game of the weekend. This is the game; I could realistically see going either way. All the games could go either way, but this one I have significantly less conviction. I did bet a Josh Allen prop for this game that I listed below. To boil this down simply, no one has taken advantage of, or had the players to attack the Bills secondary. Tampa Bay carved the Bills up and Buffalo has not exactly played any passing game that can really attack down the field. Now, I get Patrick Mahomes laying under a field goal. At Home? MOREOVER, NO ONE LIKES THEM? People are not immune to being prisoners of the moment. The Bills looked exceptional last weekend, and yes, we were on them. Maybe I am the fool. Maybe the Bills are ready to ascend past the Chiefs. To become the king you have to kill the king in the NFL. If the Bills can go into Kansas City for the second time this season and win another night game, they deserve it all. The winner of this game will be favored next week, no matter who or where they play. I am taking the Chiefs -1.5. Everyone seems to have forgotten what the Chiefs are capable of and that their defense improved. If everyone is on the Bills, I am more than happy to go the other direction.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
BUFF +2


Regular Plays
CIN +3.5
SF +5.5
LAR +3

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Nothing is listed yet.

Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money. .

Titans and Packers to win +120
This should pay +115. This is such a small boost; there is no need to play it. Just bet the games you like here.


KC and TB to win +225
This should pay +191. I am going to wait here and see if the TB offensive line is healthy. If it is, I am in. However, if the line keeps moving toward the Bills, this boost may become less valuable. Take your time here.

Let’s Get Weird
Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Barstool)
DK has this at 50.5. FD has it much higher at 52.5. Always shop around.
Allen averages 60.6 yards rushing in the playoffs. When it matters as the playoffs dog, Allen runs more. Last year in a game they trailed the entire time, he ran for 88 yards. I think he does so Sunday night.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 133-144 48.01%
Playoffs 2-4 33.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-28 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-37 47.14%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 30-23 56.60%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 16-45 -1565
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 38-25 60.31%
Odds Boosts 19-45 -1265
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521

I have said it before and I will say it again, get consistent NBA. I want 6-8 games a night, not these massive slates with tiny slates.

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.  Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NOP +4
PHO -3
GSW -12

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Purdue and USC to both win +230 (FD)
Purdue is a 3.5-point road favorite. USC is a 2-point road favorite. This should pay +182. I mean if you want to play two tiny road favorites in college basketball go for it. I am passing.

Pacers to score +110 +260 (DK)
The Pacers are double-digit dogs in a road back-to-back playing without two of its best players. I am passing.

Booker and Luka to combine for 55+ points +130 (DK)
DK is back with the combined boosts.
Booker’s prop is set to 26.5.
Luka’s prop is set to 26.5.
As usual, you can parlay them to both go over their prop for +253, which is also less points than this boost. Pass for me.

PHO/NOP/GSW to all win +400 (Fox)
Spot the dog, I mean does there always have to be a dog Fox Bet? Apparently so.
This should pay +373. I am not taking a dog in these, more than likely ever. Pass

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 27-27 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 29-29 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-11 +169
Hoops Odds Boosts 30-41 +1831
Hoops Player Props 3-6 -380
NBA Model Highest Rated 25-33 43.10%
NBA Model 290-291 49.91%