Everyone is on the Warriors. Not just for the series, but for game one. I get it. The Warriors are the team the public knows. They have stars people are familiar with. They have watched Curry, Klay and Dray win multiple titles, and be the preeminent team in the NBA over the last few years. Were there some dips? Of course. Can those be written off due to injury, yes, they can.
The Warriors are the fun team. They shoot threes they have identifiable stars. They score. They are built on offense. Well, at least that is what the public thinks. In reality, the Warriors are a very good defensive team. They always have been. Dray’s versatility and Klay’s ability was able to mask Curry’s defensive issues, which have improved. Once you add a versatile defender in Andrew Wiggins and the Warriors remain one of the better defensive teams in the league.
However, these are not the Warriors of the past. Klay is not Klay. Jordan Poole has stepped into Klay’s scoring role, but in a different way. The Warriors are deep and have had players hurt that appear to be ready to be a full go in Otto Porter and Gary Payton.
I feel like we have seen this script before. The team that scores and has offensive stars against a team that is exceptional defensively. Some games it is a wonder how the Celtics get over 100-points. In this modern version of the NBA that almost seem unfathomable. Yet, here we are. Boston knows who they are. They play tough physical defense and they have seven people they can trust.
The Warriors playoff path has been significantly easier than we want to admit. The Nuggets with just Jokic. The Grizzlies without Ja. The Mavs coming off an upset of the Suns. Meanwhile, the Celtics beat a Nets team that were favored to come out of the East. Then they conquered the champions, without Middleton, I know. Finally, a slugfest against Miami.
In the early 2000’s a physical Pistons team that struggled to score took on the juggernaut Lakers. Just a few years ago a physical defensively stout Raptors took on these same Warriors. I see parallels in this situation. In each of those spots, the public backed the team with stars that they knew. The teams with that has scorers people know. Forgetting about the public though. Boston matches up very well with the Warriors. I have vacillated between can the Celtics score enough in this series, but landed on how the Warriors will stop the Celtics wings.
I did not realize there was this large of a break before game one. My original plan was to bet the Warriors in game one, then load up on a better price for the Celtics at that point. Yet, this layoff has changed my thinking. The time off will benefit the Celtics who have been through several tough series to get to this point. Robert Williams must play and stay healthy. Williams will be able to protect the rim. The Celtics will switch all pick and roll attacks with the benefit of having Williams behind them.
In the end, I think the Celtics are just a better team. We are getting great value on them as dog in game one and in the series. Boston is better defensively. We have seen this play out before. The team with the bigger stars losing to a solid defensive team that grinds out points and wins.
Boston in 6
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Computer Model Plays
BOS +4
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 No Sweat SGP (FD)
Once a week you can make an SGP and if it loses you get refunded. Use this!
$10 refund if your game 1 SGP loses (DK)
Use this!
Klay to score 5+ points in first quarter and 50+ total points in 1st quarter +220 (FD)
This is weird, but I do not bet timed boosts. Pass.
Any player to score 35+ in game 1 +200 (FD)
I think this series will be defensive in nature. Pass for me.
ML Bet if your team goes up by 10+ at any time you win (DK)
Now, this is interesting to me. Boston has a track record for big leads, but then letting teams back into games. Of course, Boston could start slow on the road and never have a chance. I do like Boston with the points in game one, so why not take a shot here? Boston +145, I am in.
Look, Draft Kings has plenty of boosts that are all based on key players making threes. I lean under in game one and all games this series. I am passing on these boosts.
Let’s Get Weird
Klay Thompson Under 20.5 -112 (DK)
BOS +140 Series Price (FD)
BOS +4 (FD)
Boston in 6 +440 (FD)
NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Playoff Record 16-11 59.25%
NBA Record 57-61 48.30%
Hoops Combined Record 71-78 47.65%
Hoops Parlay Record 10-24 +194
Hoops Odds Boosts 45-74 +756
Hoops Player Props 10-18 -735
NBA Playoff Record 39-38 50.64%
NBA Model Premium Plays 33-43 42%
NBA Model 589-554 51.53%
MLB Record
Overall 0-1 -100
Parlays 0-1 -100
