Week 9

This seems like a straight forward week to me. Play as many saints and rams as you can! I am making three stacks today. I am doing them on both fan duel and draft kings.

Cam/Moore/Howard

Brees/Kamara/Smith/Gurley

Goff/Gurley/Kamara/Smith

I am full on team “jammem in,” in terms of Kamara and Gurley. 100% exposure incoming. In cash I think you can play dolphins Wr’s and Phillip Lindsey. The sneakiest GPP plays of the day are Mark Ingram and Nuk Hopkins. Hopkins May get 15 targets today and is going to be very low owned. If you play Hopkins with Sutton that gives you a nice back and fourth of the WR’s and helps make the Sutton chalk a little more contrarian.

Wagers

Pitt +2

GB +5.5

Crazy teaser of the day!

Three team ten point tease -120

PITT +12

GB +15.5

CHIC PK

NBA DFS Plays and Week 9 Computer Picks! #DFS #NBA

The computer killed it last week and we shall see if it keeps going! We have three premium plays this week!

Premium
CHI -9.5
KC -8.5
GB +5.5

The rest of our plays
OAK +3
NYJ +3
DET +4.5
WAS -1.5
CAR -6.5
PITT +3
HOU +1
LAC +1.5
LAR +1.5
TENN +6.5

I personally am not playing anything tonight. What a god awful NFL game we have. It is however a great night for some NBA DFS!!! The totals in the NO/POR and OKC/CHA game both keep rising. These are the two games I am trying to target the most. It makes a lot of sense to start your lineups off with Damon LIllard and Kemba Walker on Fan Duel. I really want to play both RWB and Anthony Davis, but they are not crushing their prices. If they were under 12K I would be much more interested. Kemba was not great his last outing when he was highly owned and his price went up. I hope the masses stay away due to recency bias. The obvious cheap plays today are Jerami Grant, especially if he starts again, and Moe Harkless is currently listed as out again, which means Turner gets more run and increased usage with the second unit. Hopefully, I am tweeting tomorrow morning about sweeping cash games again! Good luck everyone!IMG_0112.

Week 8 Recap!

The computer came roaring back going 10-4 overall and 2-1 on premium plays. I went 2-1 with my personal plays, but of course lost a crazy teaser. This is why professionals don’t play crazy teasers in any way shape or form. It is hard enough to win one wager let alone several. I played a lot less volume Sunday due to going to the Steeler game, but was lucky enough to get post game field passes. It was an enjoyable Sunday with my dad!

IMG_0062 DFS was fine as I had one or two stacks cash on both sites. I made a little money on DK and lost a little on FD. It was basically a break even weekend for me. If I had played cash I am sure it would have been profitable, but oh well. I am back on the NBA grind and will try to post thoughts throughout the week.

Updated Records are below for the computer, my picks, my crazy teasers and the Undertaker’s plays.

Platinum 2-5 (28.57%)
Premium 14-13-3 (51.85%)
Overall 61-54-6 (53.50%)

My Crazy Teasers 3-12 (20%)  -920
My Picks 13-9-1 (59.09%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%
Week 4 80%
Week 5 25.86%
Week 6 Did not play cash due to family situation.
Week 7 13%
Week 8 Did not play cash.

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%
Week 4 100%
Week 5 22%
Week 6 72.72%
Week 7 18%
Week 8 Did not play cash.

Week 8!!

Headed to the Steelers game today. I really only like a few things today and think DFS can boil down to a few key decisions.

Pitt -8- This feels like a Steelers smash spot. I am biased.

DET -3- Seattle has trouble scoring.

NE -14- Feels like a 31-3 win.

Crazy teaser of the day-

Three team 10 point tease -120

Pitt +2

NE -4

DET +7

DFS STACKS

On both sites I’m only playing three stacks.

Ben/Ab/Conner/Njoku

Rodgers/Adams/Gurley

Groff/Gurley/Adams

If I can’t jam in the expensive we for each team I am moving on down the list to a cheaper one. Either way I want as much exposure to that game as I can get!

WEEK 8 Comp Picks- DFS NBA and NFL

I can’t believe we are already into week 8. Time really does move very quickly. The computer plays for the week are:

Premium Plays for week 8
SEA +3
INDY -3

The rest of the plays
PHIL -3
CHI -7
TB +4.5
DEN +10
WASH PK
CLEV +8
BALT -2
GB +9.5
SF -1
NO PK
NE -13.5

 

NFL DFS
There is so much weird value in terms of DFS for Sunday. Just at running back alone you can look at the Raider backs, or Crowell and Nick Chubb is still too cheap. Everyone is clearly going to try and jam in Gurley, so I assume that most people will go with a Gurley/Value Back strategy. I on the other hand kind of want to play James Conner or some other mid-range RB.

The Raiders have even more value at the WR position where someone has to catch the ball. If only we could somehow get every Ram and Packer into one lineup we should be good to go. I am curious to see if anyone pays up at WR this week. I really want to stack the Steelers, but that would mean limiting ownership on the GB/LAR Game.

NBA DFS
James Harden is out for the next two games at least and that leaves some opportunity. Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are priced up, but their role and usage should increase as well. I will have some of both of them. My favorite play on the Rockets is Gerald Green. Green will now be locked into around 20-25 minutes and he is only 3.7K on FD and 3.9K on DK. Someone has to increase their usage with the second unit and it will be Green.

On Draft Kings the Bulls players are still too cheap for their role. Bobby Portis is out and Jabari Parker is a lock to increase his minutes. You can talk me into any and all Bulls on DK and some on FD. Maybe I am crazy, but I like the idea of a Clippers/Rockets game stack.

IMG_2240

Trick or Treat!!

The computer has a premium play on MIA +7.5. I personally don’t like it, but the computer is a fan. The rest of the picks will be posted tomorrow morning for the weekend.

In DFS tonight NBA seems simple. Get as many Nuggets in as you can. I have three in my cash lineup. I have faded the king the entire season but tonight’s the night I play him. You could make an argument to play two cheap SF (Everyone is playing nance anyway)and then pay up for Westbrook. I just didn’t like my build when I did that. I can’t get behind Jordan Clarkson. I was a Clarkson Truther for years and gave it up last year.

I ended up with an interesting 2v2 with Blake and Magee or Joker and Tristan. I want as much exposure to Denver and LA as I can get though. The Torrey Craig Slow train to 15 fantasy points continues.

Finish those lineups and take your kids out!

#DadLife Halloween: Couples Costumes

When you are a kid Halloween is the best. You get to stay up late, get free candy, then eat all the candy while watching a movie you should probably not be watching. It’s the best. As a parent it is significantly more stressful. First, you have to get your kids to give a straight answer on what they want to be. Our daughter has told us she wanted to be a unicorn, Cat boy, Owlette, Elsa and some other random things I can’t recall. The unicorn was first, so we ordered it from amazon. Of course, as soon as it arrived she wanted to be other things. Then my wife and I had to become salesmen and convince her why being a unicorn was so much better. Your child wanting to switch their costume is only matched by the stress of finding a cute couples costume. Have you ever tried to figure out a couple’s costume? It is very hard to find something that you both like, isn’t stupid, and also isn’t made for college kids and is insanely inappropriate for people in their mid-thirties.

Costumes my wife and I have been over the last few years:
Peter and Lois Griffin
Mario and Princess Peach
Kenny Power and Little Miss Sunshine (This was not a couple costume obviously)
Bank Robbers
Eleven and Dustin from Stranger Things
Stone Cold Steve Austin and Macho Man Randy Savage
Avocado and Toast
(What couples costumes have you been recently?)

IMG_2292

In college Halloween was amazing. Sleep in. Throw on an NBA jersey and claim to be an athlete, go to a club, bar, or party where everyone was dressed in clothing they would not wear in public at any other time. Have lots of drinks, sleep in and do it again one more time that weekend. (College weekends start on Thursday and that should happen in the real world too!)

Halloween is only really awkward when you are a teenager before college and when you are an adult with children. As a teen the “am I too old to get candy” comes up often. As an adult the stress of the day removes the fun.

If both parents work, as is the case in my house, Halloween is a day of rushing around for an hour of kid’s fun.

Halloween Schedule

730-4 Work
4-530 Pickup kids, feed them food, make them look nice and get them in costume.
530-6 Attempt to get kids to stand next to each other and stand still for one damn second so we can get one Instagram worthy picture to post and text to family that isn’t on social media.
6-7 Trick or Treating while the kids complain about walking so much and asked to be carried at least seven times, but not wanting to stop.
7-7:15 Kids have had enough and want to go home and eat all the candy.
7-8 Kids hand out candy and eat candy.
8-10: Give kids a bath and pray they actually sleep since they have eaten so much candy.

You know how the day of prom people going to prom got to go home early to get ready? All parents should get to leave work at lunch to prepare for Halloween. Wouldn’t that make everything much easier?

I really do enjoy taking my kids out on Halloween, but then how do parents also hand out candy? The bowl with a “take one” sign kind of works, but isn’t ideal. One parent should not have to stay home and hand out candy, both parents should be able to go out and enjoy the night with their kids.

I know it sounds like I am complaining a lot, but all of these issue are normal adulting things. I love nights like this with my family, even if the stress and rushing around drive me crazy. As I have mentioned before bed time can be difficult enough, let alone after a super fun night full of sugar. Despite all of that, nothing is keeping me from walking a unicorn and Super Mario riding Yoshi around tomorrow night.

Week 7 Recap! NBA CASH!

Week 7 was very strange for a lot of reasons. Many of the fantasy stars were off the main slate. Scoring seemed depressed in several spots. I was able to do well despite zero. Jermaine Kearse caught zero passes a week after getting double-digit targets. In a game they trailed the entire time. Against a secondary that had struggled against WR who come out of the slot. ZERO CATCHES. Still, I made money. My cash games were a disaster on both sites. Fortunately, my MITCH stacks killed it. MITCH/COHEN/GORDON worked very well but it could have been better. Gordon got tackled on the one. The Colts defense had an interception return and got tackled on the one. MITCH’S hail Mary was caught and tackled on the one. Nick Chubb had another opportunity to score from the one and failed. All of those go my way and my profitable week turns into a fantastic week.

On Draft Kings I finished 62nd in the $33 GPP, but was 37 points away from first place. That same lineup finished 3007th in the Milly Maker on DK. All of the above plays did not go my way and I had a ZERO from Kearse.

On Fan Duel my MITCH stack was also my best lineup. It finished 37th in the $25 single entry, just 19 points out of first place and $10k. While I avoided Kearse in that lineup Marquise Goodwin’s 3.4 hurt a lot. I knew if he got a garbage TD late I would shoot into the top ten. Again, all those plays that were so close really hurt in this lineup as well. I think we are getting very close to breaking a big one. You have to be close before it can happen.

Basketball is in full swing and I am playing every night. I posted the picture below of my cash game lineup from last night. I am off to a good start and am ready to keep grinding. Tonight appears to be TJ McConnell and Torrey Craig night. Feels like late March NBA, but no it’s October.

Updated Records are below for the computer, my picks, my crazy teasers and the Undertaker’s plays.

Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 12-12-3 50%
Overall 51-50-6 (50.50%)

My Crazy Teasers 3-11 (21.42%)  -820
My Picks 11-8-1 (57.89%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%
Week 4 80%
Week 5 25.86%
Week 6 Did not play cash due to family situation.
Week 7 13%

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%
Week 4 100%
Week 5 22%
Week 6 72.72%
Week 7 18%

Week 7!!!

Just got back in town from Atlanta, but this feels like an obvious week. Welcome to Chubb Week. DFS plays are apparent and making lineups felt almost too easy. Let’s hope I feel that way after today as well.

DK Stacks

Goff/Gurley/Goodwin

BEATHARD/Goodwin/Gurley

Mitch/Cohen/Gordon

Cousins/theilan/kearse

FD Stacks

Goff/Gurley/Goodwin

Mitch/Cohen/Gordon

Cousins/theilan/Diggs/kearse

Even if it doesn’t work out it doesn’t matter. The Nick Chubb price is too cheap for the new role he is about to step into.

My wagers

Buff +7.5 – The colts shouldn’t be giving more than 3 to anyone.

Carolina +5 – This feels like a tight three point game.

SF +9.5 – Third straight road game for the Rams. They have not covered the other two as well.

My crazy teaser

7 point 5 team teaser (pays +300)

Chi +10.5

Car +12

Buff +14.5

Kc Pk

LAR -2.5

10 point 3 team teaser -120

Car +15

Buff +17.5

SF +19.5

UNDERTAKER (GONG) Total

Under 49 chi/Ne

Good luck everyone!!

Week 7 Computer Picks – Update

Week 7 is upon us and obviously, I need to update some things. Had some things happen in our family that all families will eventually go through. Just because you know it will happen eventually doesn’t make it any easier. #Dadlife blog took the week off, but will return next week. I will attempt to write about the NBA slates as much as I can during the week. I did not get a blog up yesterday and of course did very well. I am starting to get my cash game train going and will continue to up my volume as we progress and build up more. We need our computer model to get even more data before we can fully trust it.

NFL Computer model has a platinum play this week as well as tons of premium selections.

Platinum
MIA +2.5

Premium
LAC -6.5
NE -3
CAR +4.5
CLE +3
HOU +5
NYG +5.5

The rest of the plays
DEN -1.5
BUFF +7.5
NYJ +3
NO +2.5
LAR -9.5
DAL +2
KC -6

Platinum 2-4 33.33%
Premium 9-10-2 47.36%
Overall 44-44-5 (50%)

 

I really like Arizona tonight and think the Bills and Colts play a low scoring game. The Rams are not going to lose to San Fran.
Three team 10 point tease -120
ARZ +12.5
BUFF +17.5
LAR PK
My Crazy Teasers 3-9 (25%)  -620

My Picks 10-6-1 (62.5%)
Nothing in terms of my personal wagers for tonight.

The Undertaker 2-2 (50%)
No selections for tonight.

 

Last week was weird in DFS, I made a little money on both sites but did not play much volume as I discussed last Sunday. At the bottom I will post my lineups from last night in the NBA. It went very well in cash as I played Anthony Davis over Giannis.

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%
Week 4 80%
Week 5 25.86%
Week 6 Did not play cash due to family situation.

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%
Week 4 100%
Week 5 22%
Week 6 72.72%