I hate this series. Seriously, I think I am still upset with the Celtics having a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals last June and in control with under ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter of game four. Then Steph took over. The Celtics did not win another game. Can my current judgement be clouded by my disappointment in Boston from last June. Perhaps. Either way I have been on the wrong side of this series in the last two games. This is like the opposite of being a homer. I used to have a running joke with a friend about certain DFS plays, we used to say they just made the list. This is a reference to a Chris Jericho WWE run where he has a list of people who did not like. From that point, almost without fault we avoided playing that person. I think Paul Millsap circa 2016 was the first name on the list. Ironically, I did have one of my first ever decent NBA DFS wins on a night I played Millsap.

At this point you could tell me anything happens in game six, or seven. This season has been so bizarre with teams losing random games they should not, to 15+ point dogs winning outright. It seems almost fitting for this to go seven games, then Boston to lose at home in the weirdest outcome possible. I still think Denver beats either team in the finals though.

I am sure I will get this wrong again, but I have to be on Miami in game six. The injuries are pilling up for Miami and they need this to end, or they may have a few months to rest up and not just a week. I am playing Miami +3.

I have also thought about my Denver futures and the way this is going I see no reason to hedge. Denver should be favored and if anything, I may bet more on them

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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Regular
MIA +3

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NBA
MIA +3

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 363-389 48.27%
Playoffs 34-33 50.74%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 24-19 55.81%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-2 -115

I hate this series. Seriously, I think I am still upset with the Celtics having a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals last June and in control with under ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter of game four. Then Steph took over. The Celtics did not win another game. Can my current judgement be clouded by my disappointment in Boston from last June. Perhaps. Either way I have been on the wrong side of this series in the last two games. This is like the opposite of being a homer. I used to have a running joke with a friend about certain DFS plays, we used to say they just made the list. This is a reference to a Chris Jericho WWE run where he has a list of people who did not like. From that point, almost without fault we avoided playing that person. I think Paul Millsap circa 2016 was the first name on the list. Ironically, I did have one of my first ever decent NBA DFS wins on a night I played Millsap.

At this point you could tell me anything happens in game six, or seven. This season has been so bizarre with teams losing random games they should not, to 15+ point dogs winning outright. It seems almost fitting for this to go seven games, then Boston to lose at home in the weirdest outcome possible. I still think Denver beats either team in the finals though.

I am sure I will get this wrong again, but I have to be on Miami in game six. The injuries are pilling up for Miami and they need this to end, or they may have a few months to rest up and not just a week. I am playing Miami +3.

I have also thought about my Denver futures and the way this is going I see no reason to hedge. Denver should be favored and if anything, I may bet more on them

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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MIA +3

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No Sweat SGP (DK)
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NBA
MIA +3

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 363-389 48.27%
Playoffs 34-33 50.74%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 24-19 55.81%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-2 -115

My Nuggets future from October is looking better and better. It certainly seems like the Celtics are ready to go on vacation. I will happily take Miami tonight. It is almost hilarious how much this number has flipped in just a few days. It is going to be so boring with so many days off before the Finals start, but until that time, I guess we have more golf and baseball. Full, Finals breakdown will follow before it starts in a week. Gee, I wonder if I will like Denver.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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MIA -1.5

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MIA -1.5

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 363-387 48.40%
Playoffs 34-31 52.30%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 24-17 58.53%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-2 -115

This series seems pretty obvious. The Celtics are better, deeper and Miami may struggle to score. The computer model makes the spread Boston -5.5, so there is some inherent value on the Heat from a game-by-game basis. Boston should win this series, easily, but Miami does have a significant coaching edge. That will undoubtedly matter, but not enough to flip this series.

I have not been posting it, but I keep playing the over in Oakland A’s games, especially when they are against a bad pitcher as well. I did it again last night and am going right back at it during the day today.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

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MLB
OAK/ARZ Over 9 -115

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 358-387 48.05%
Playoffs 29-31 48.33%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 23-17 57.5%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-1 -000

Here we are at the start of the conference finals. I am sitting on some Denver Nugget futures and debating if I should hedge or not. I know, some people out there do not ever hedge, but I also do not like taking a loss, when it is easily avoidable. The simplest thing to do would be to just take the Lakers to win the series at +135. I can easily mitigate my risk and lose some of my equity this way. This is the smart logical way to make sure I do not lose my original bet amount.

On the hand though, what do I think will actually happen. I am starting to embrace that the Lakers will win this series. I know there is not much to gleam from the 2020 conference finals in thew bubble. The Lakers are vastly different and Jokic is significantly improved, not to mention MPJ’s growth as well. I still can not get the thought out of my mind that AD is going to feast on that Jokic defense. If the Lakers hunt Jokic, which they will, what is the Nuggets plan? Jokic switches on Lebron, or any perimeter player? AD dives to the hoop and destroys whoever switches? I think of all the teams and matchups that the Nuggets could struggle with this is the worst possible scenario. Could Denver just score a ton and watch the Lakers fail to make shots from the perimeter, of course.

Both of these teams have been exceptional at home during the playoffs. That may just continue, but I am going to take a wait and see approach for the series. I want to play the Lakers tonight on rest, but I am going to hesitate. The computer likes the Lakers, but I am passing for now.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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LAL +6

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MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 358-387 48.05%
Playoffs 29-31 48.33%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 23-17 57.5%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-1 -000

The Knicks/Heat number is slightly larger than the model would like, so it is on New York. I think the Knicks are going down, but I am not playing that game. I will however be playing the Lakers. I mapped it out the other night. Lakers in game four, Warriors in game five and now we come back and lay the points with the Lakers tonight. I am sure the NBA would love two games on Sunday, but I do not think we are getting that.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

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LAL-3

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LAL -3

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 356-386 47.97%
Playoffs 27-30 47.36%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 22-17 56.41%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 1-1 -000

I said it before game four and I will say it again tonight, the Heat are just better. The Knicks are out of answers and changes they can make. Once that happens it is usually over in the playoffs. I thought that might be the case with the Sixers, but wow. Who had Doc Rivers outcoaching someone this badly in a playoff series? I thought the Sixers appeared to be fading, instead, they stepped up to the moment and have a real chance to make a run.

As you can tell, I am on Miami tonight. I think they win and end this series. In the West, this is the perfect night to fade the Lakers. They are up 3-1 and do not have the sense or urgency of the Warriors. Champions do always disappear quietly, but they normally have one more big punch in them before they fall. Tonight, is the Warriors final punch. We have also seen the Lakers sort of take games off.  I think that is the case here. This number is inflated for a reason. The last hurrah for Golden State happens tonight. Then we will turn around and play the Lakers in game six.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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MIA +3.5
LAL +7.5

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MIA +3.5
GSW -7.5

MLB
OAK/NYY Over 9.5 +100

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 355-383 48.10%
Playoffs 26-27 49.05%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 20-15 57.14%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 0-1 -100

The Sixers are very lucky that this series is tied. Joel Embiid is clearly laboring and struggling, fading towards the end of these games. Had it not been for some coaching maleficence, this series may in fact already be over. Yet, the Sixers have a punchers chance. I am backing the Celtics tonight though. Boston is the better team, with better adjustments, as long as Marcus Smart is not taking every shot in the fourth quarter. I am on Philly -7.5.

I said it the other day, but it took an incredible Booker performance as well as Shamet and Ross filling it up from three. That will not happen again, especially in Denver. I am backing the Nuggets -5.5 tonight.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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BOS -7.5
PHO +5.5

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BOS -7.5
DEN -5.5
BOS/DEN ML Parlay -102

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 355-381 48.23%
Playoffs 26-25 50.98%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 19-14 57.57%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-11 -583
MLB 0-1 -100

Yes, I know Devin Booker went wild, but really it was Terrance Ross and Landry Shamet that beat Denver last night. Think about it, it took Booker going insane and those guys off the bench making several key threes for the Suns to still only win by five. Not a great sign for the long-term prospects for the rest of this series. Denver meanwhile was still in the game until MPJ took that awful transition three. If I lose a wager because of Terrance Ross and Landry Shamet in the year 2023 during a playoff game, I am more than happy with my process and side I was on, despite the result.

It certainly seems that Miami has figured out the Knicks offense and now Quickley may be out as well. I am not sure what other moves New York has offensively, unless Julius Randle gets it together. I am on Miami tonight.

I know the Lakers have been better off of rest and do not always play at the level needed in the playoffs with only one day off. Yet, I like them tonight. I am going with the theory that because of the blowout, the Lakers will be rested. This of course does not even factor in the Warriors atrocious road record this season. AD will actually put together two straight solid games and I am on the Lakers -3. Then we will turn around and play GSW in game five.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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MIA -4.5
LAL -3

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MIA -4.5
LAL -3

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 354-381 48.16%
Playoffs 25-25 50%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 18-14 56.25%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-11 -583
MLB 0-1 -100

Sometimes a line looks a little interesting and tonight we have just that with the Sixers as home dogs. I expected Philly to be a small favorite, but then I ran our model, and guess what, Boston -1. I really like the Sixers in this spot. If they do not play well tonight, they are in significant trouble. I think Embiid will play and look much better than he did in game two.

In the second game our model makes this essentially a pick, with the line hovering near zero. Once you add in Chris Paul not playing, Denver should be favored. Yet, I digress, we have seen multiple times in the regular and post-season where key players have been out, and the remaining players have rallied. This is a great spot to be on the Suns where the line is suppressed due to the CP3 injury. I am going against the model and playing the Suns in the late game.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
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Regular
PHI +2.5
DEN +4

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DK has a 100% profit boost for NBA, I bet your max bet is larger than mine, but I say take the Sixers money line.

NBA
PHI +2.5
PHO -4

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 351-378 48.14%
Playoffs 22-22 50%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 16-12 57.14%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 10-7 +615
Parlays 5-11 -583
MLB 0-1 -100