For the first time I was victim of the Circa contest submission times. Houston was part of the plan, but I cooled on them significantly Saturday night, but it was too late. For the Draft Kings contest, I flipped Houston to Atlanta +1. With the Steelers tonight, we are currently 2-2 in Circa and 3-1 in Draft Kings. The other loser was the Bengals, who are all out of sorts. There is a lot riding on tonight as going 3-2 or better every week is the key to cashing and having a nice finish.

I would be shocked if the Steelers do not come out and play very well tonight. If the offense is bad again, well Blame Canada. Kenny can not possibly be as bad as last week, right? Right?! The AFC seems like it may not be as good as expected. If the Steelers can turn it around tonight, who knows what the future may bring. Amari Cooper is trending toward sitting, but the key for the Steelers has always been if Nick Chubb runs for 80 or less yards they win. If you are building an SGP, Chubb under and Steelers winning seem like a good combination.

I am nervous to start 0-2. I hate this. Also, excited and fired up. Sports are great.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum



Premium


Regular Plays
NO -3
PIT +2.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
PITT +2.5

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 19-11   63.33%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 5-1 83.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-1 85.71%

Our Plays
Overall  5-3 62.5%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

Week two is always the overreaction week. Teams that looked unusually good or bad, have their numbers in or deflated due to the one game sample size of last week. Of course, this means we can take advantage of some situations. I want to mention that the contests really did a great job of changing numbers prior to posting.

GB +1.5 at ATL – If the Packers have key members of their offense out, I am seriously considering taking Atlanta. This is crazy, but is Atlanta really going to start 2-0? The Falcons are on my short list.

LVR +8 at BUF – This is a pass for me. The Bills feel like the right side, but I need to see it at some point where they lay the smack down. It has been a minute.

BAL +3 at CIN – I am all over the Bengals. The Ravens have a slew of injuries, and this is the comeback week for Joe B and Cincinnati. I have bet the Bengals and they will be in my contest plays even at -3.5.

SEA +4.5 at DET – If Seattle did not have those offensive line injuries, I was ready to jump on them. Instead, they may be missing both starting tackles and that is a pass for me.

LAC -2.5 at TEN – I cannot take the Titans. I do not care how much of a professional darling they are. I am out here. I have no feel for Tennessee.

CHI +3 at TB – What am I missing here? Professionals are all over Chicago. The TB defense did a great job against Minnesota forcing turnover and keeping them out of the endzone, now this same defense is going to give up points to Justin Fields? I am backing the healthy undervalued Bucs defense again against what might be the worst team in the league. TB -2.5 in contests and TB -3 in wagers.

KC -3 at JAX – Oh man the Chiefs will not lose two in a row, right? Right? Pass for me. This is a better DFS game than to bet on. Pass.

IND +1 at HOU – Rookie QB on the road against a defense that did a decent job against Lamar and the Ravens. I am again backing a solid defense at home against a young QB and offense on the road. HOU -1 in contests and in wagers.

SF -7.5 at LAR – We do not lay a touchdown on the road in division. Pass. Also, I am not taking this weaponless Rams team against the Niners.

NYG -4 at ARZ – This line keeps dropping. Is this this the Admiral Akbar game of the week? Pass for me and in survivor.

NYJ +9 at DAL – Huge pass. This is too many points as I do not trust DAK, but Zach Wilson exists. I am out.

WAS +3.5 at DEN – They just keep making Denver more than a FG favorite despite them being terrible. I also hate this game, no action from me.

MIA -3 at NE – A home divisional dog that sharps are on. Yes, I get the argument for the Patriots and backing their defense and a revitalized offense. I am pausing here in the off-chance Miami is very good and just scores a ton of points. Keep in mind the Chargers ran for 200+ yards last week and the Pats will try to do the same. I am passing, but the Patriots are interesting.

Ill discuss the Monday night games on Monday, but you know I am on the Steelers. Coming off a loss, at home, Monday night against the Browns. This is fantastic get right spot. I have four games for now. I need a fifth for contests but will get there eventually. As always, I will post all my contest picks on Twitter/X, but after last weeks 3-2, we need to pick it up!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo

Computer Model Plays
Platinum



Premium
WAS +3.5

Regular Plays
GB +1
BUF -8.5
BAL +3.5
SEA +4.5
TEN +3
TB -2.5
KC -3
HOU -1
SF -7.5
NYG -4.5
NYJ +9.5
NE +2.5
NO -3
PIT +2.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
CIN -3 (Bet and gave out Monday morning)
PITT +2.5
HOU -1
TB -2.5

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 12-5 7%0.58
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 4-1 80%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-1 83.33%

Our Plays
Overall  3-2 60%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

The computer had a ridiculous week one. Week two is always an overreaction, but here we are. Tonight, if the Eagles did not have as many injuries, it would be easy to take them and continue to fade Prime-Time Kurt Cousins. Yet, I can not do it. I took TB last week because I assumed the Bucs could throw it and be successful and they were to some degree. I think both teams will be able to throw the ball tonight. I am passing on the game, but you can use your risk-free wagers on some TD scorer parlays. Like I said, I think both teams will be able to throw it, I just hope Cousins does not turn it over a ton and we get a fun game.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2

Computer Model Plays
Platinum



Premium


Regular Plays
PHI -6.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings
Early win bonus, I played the Eagles money line. I expect they throw it and score quickly.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 12-4 75%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 4-1 80%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-1 83.33%

Our Plays
Overall  3-2 60%
NFL Odds Boosts 2-1 +165
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

The Steelers played their worst games in what feels like forever. Yes, I know there were games last year they got crushed, but this was different. There were expectations. Now the pressure is off.

I went 3-2 in all of my contests. After a 3-1 early slate I was hoping we would get to 4-1 all around. If you wondered why I had different teams in different contests, well we have to be aware of the numbers. In Circa Seattle was -5. In DK they were -6.5. It was an easy pivot on DK, where the Chargers were only -2.5. Despite the fact neither team came through, I was not about to take a bad number, just because I liked a team. Either way a 3-2 start is perfectly fine.

I have made one bet for this week already and took the Bengals -3. Week two is always an overreaction so week one. Baltimore has issues and the Bengals will play better. I feel that way about the Steelers, but I am going to wait and see if more Cleveland money comes, and I can get the best number.

We did end up with some closing line value on Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Tampa Bay. As long as I keep betting games and getting the best number, I am happy. There was no CLV with Atlanta because it stayed in the same spot all week.

Lastly, the computer model went off. One platinum level play won, four premium level plays won and overall, the computer is 12-3 ATS with one game to go. Not to shabby.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum



Premium
BUF -2

Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings
Most of the sites have some small profit boosts with a max of $25 or so. I am boosting up the Jets money line and firing on those. I think the Jets defensive line controls the game and gets pressure. Sauce played well against Diggs last year and that should continue. I will take the Jets +165.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 12-3 80%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 4-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-0 100%

Our Plays
Overall  3-2 60%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-1 000
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

Finally, we are back to normal. The NFL and the rhythm of the seasons is how I judge the passage of time. My kids are older. Everyone is back to school. The Steelers open up at home on Sunday and I will be in attendance. This will be year 35 for my father and I to attend Steeler games. I have plenty of thoughts on this and how I feel about it all. There will be more time to discuss my Steeler’s season tickets and attending games, instead, let’s get to week one.

My goal is two-fold every week. First, I need five games for my contest’s selections. Second, I am always looking for games to bet and avoid. You should not be trying to bet a game or find a reason to bet a game. I do the opposite and I am trying to find a reason to not bet a game.

Pittsburgh +2.5 vs. SF. Is there a doubt? The Niners secondary is awful, and the Steelers seem primed to actually attack vertically. The Niners struggle to play from behind and I expect points in this game. The right side of the Niners offensive line is not great and guess where TJ Watt lines up? I bet Steelers months ago at +3. I bet them at +2.5. I bet the money line. I will have the Steelers in my five picks in contests. I am also stacking Kenny and the WR’s. This should be fun.

HOU +9 at Baltimore. Pass. If I am playing this game, it is on Baltimore. The Ravens always start strong and put-up points. I have Ravens in Survivor along with Washington. I get pretty shy when the spread gets above a touchdown. I am out.

TB +5.5 at Minnesota.  The Vikings secondary is awful, and their games have been higher scoring than people realize, especially last year. I am going to stack Baker/Godwin/Evans this week and think the Bucs put up points. Our computer model thinks this spread should be under three points. Remember that Minnesota graded horribly in most models last year. Brady was not good last season so Baker can be average and make this work. I bet the Bucs +5.5 and will be using TB in contests.

JAX -4.5 at INDY. Pass. I am not laying points on the road in division, nor am I backing a rookie QB in this spot. Pass.

CIN -2 at CLE. The Bengals have started slowfor the last few years Joey B has been out with an injury. Cleveland has all this hype, but their defense is good. Denzel Ward playing is important for the Browns defense, and he did clear concussion protocol. The Browns will run it down the throat of the Bengals and the Browns get a surprising week one win. Home dogs is a solid theme to follow. I am on Cle +2 and Cle +2.5 in contests.

ARZ +7 at WAS. Nope. I am not laying a touchdown with the Commanders. If anything, I would take the points here. If this gets above seven, I am intrigued. Pass for now.

TEN +3 at NO. I have zero feel for this game. I know the Saints are a trendy team to win their conference and will be favored in a majority of their games. Pass for me.

CAR +3.5 at ATL. I hate this game too. Feels like Atlanta is the correct side, and the Panthers are going to be bad. I am taking a wait and see approach for both these teams.

PHI -4 at NE. This feels like a trap. I am not laying points on the road here. The Eagles should do very well here and score, but the Patriots defense is allegedly going to be good. I am out for this week.

MIA +3 at LAC. I know Tua was awful out here week one and the Dolphins have some injury concerns. Yet, I am still leaning toward Miami. When they were healthy, aka Tua played, Miami was very good. I am leaning Miami, but nothing as of yet.

LAR +5 at SEA. This line is weird, but I have warmed to Seattle this week. Kenneth Walker may be hurt and could sit, but Seattle is primed for a big year, while the Rams feel ready for a hard reset. The Rams have so few weapons, this could be a blowout if Seattle gets up early. Lean Seattle.

GB +1 at Chi. I was going to be all in on the Packers in week one, but the WR injuries have me concerned. I will revisit this one, after we have more news.

LVR +3.5 at DEN. Nope. I would take the points or pass. I was out on Denver before the season started last year and I remain skeptical. I thought Russ was bad for years so I need to see it first.

DAL -3.5 at NYG. Home divisional dog has my interest. I have the Giants on my short list.

BUF -2.5 at NYJ. Home divisional dog has my interest. I have the Jets on my short list.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +3


Premium
TB +5.5
SF -2.5
GB +1
LV +3.5
BUF -2

Regular Plays
CAR +3.5
CIN -2.5
JAX -4.5
TEN +3
ARZ +7
HOU +10
PHI -4
DAL -3
LAR +3.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

NFL
PIT +2.5
PIT ML
TB +5.5
CLE +2

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 1-0
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)

Our Plays
Overall  %
NFL Odds Boosts 1-1 000
NFL Teasers and Parlays

Finally, we are back to normal. Tonight, is the appetizer and with Sunday being the main course. If you are new or not familiar, how things work is we will give out our computer model plays for every single game. For example, tonight the spread is currently KC -4.5. Our computer model feels the spread should be KC -3.5, so as you can imagine, the computer likes the Lions +4.5 tonight.  Will I actually bet or recommend you play the game just because the computer likes it? Nope. In fact, at times, I will go against the computer if that is what I feel. Remember the computer is just another data point or guide to help us make our wagers.

This game is weird without any Kelce clarity. The line is dropping which would indicate he is out/money is coming in on the Lions. I am passing tonight, but will be back tomorrow with a breakdown of every game and my plays as well as contest leans.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum



Premium


Regular Plays
DET +4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Mahomes 1+ TD pass and 250+ passing yards +100
This should pay above -300 depending upon where you look. I am in. Even if the Chiefs struggle without Travis Kelce, he should get there. I am in.

Draft Kings
Early win bonus TNF
If either team takes a 7-point lead and you bet the money line you win immediately. You can play these two ways of course. Betting let’s say $100 on KC only nets you $45, yet they may take the opening kickoff and drive right down and score. This could be over in ten minutes. They still are favored to win the game. I am unsure which way I am leaning here, but the Chiefs feel like the correct side.

DK does have a $10 risk free wager. The proper way to use this is to fire something insane and try to win a bunch of money. Even if it loses, you will get a $10 free bet back tomorrow.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)

Our Plays
Overall  %
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays

What a strange season last year was. Our computer model had it’s worst season by far. If you look below, you will see how the computer did last season and historically. This is your yearly reminder that computer models should be another data point and a guide. Models can assist when handicapping the NFL, but not the final answer. While using this computer model, I had my best season ever. 66-36 64.70% That is beautiful. If you followed along last year, we did well betting games and in picks contests. The goal for this year is to duplicate what happened last year. The likelihood of sustainability at that level is low. If you told me right now, I would be four percent worse, I would take that instantly. We know the key to profitability is being above that 52.4% mark for wagers that are -110. In a few days we will begin our quest to finish above that percent, however, we have larger goals and are aiming much higher. This year I flew to Vegas and entered the Circa Millions contest. Just like other handicapping contests, you pick five games against the spread. These spreads come out during the week and are stagnant and do not change. Just like always, I will post my contest picks at around 1 PM every single Sunday. I also believe in giving you fair and actionable lines. I may mention I bet a game on Monday morning at a price but will breakdown if I believe you should consider it if the price is different. For example: I bet the Steelers +3 months ago and still like them at +2.5. I know me being on Pittsburgh and Kenny Pickett is shocking. Like past years, I will also post some picks on Twitter/X or whatever we call it at Wintheweekend. As you can imagine, I am entered in several picks and survivor contests. While I may not post exactly my contest plays until Sunday at 1 PM, if you read the weekend breakdown, you will have a pretty good idea of my pool of games I am working with for Sunday. I know a lot of people trying to give out betting advice are not transparent. We are completely transparent. Below is the computer model plays for every season since inception. You can scroll back on this blog and find everything, no matter if it went well or poorly. Either way, thank you for coming on this ride. Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile! Computer Model History 2015-2022 Overall 1065- 965 52.31% Premium 231-206 52.86% Platinum 39-44 46.98% Overall 2015 132-132 50% 2016 127-94 57.47% 2017 108-99 52.17% 2018 141-118 54.44% 2019 142-118 54.62% 2020 147-111 56.97% 2021 138-146 48.59% 2022 130-147 46.93% Premium 2015 43-37 53.75% 2016 30-24 55.56% 2017 18-21 46.15% 2018 32-21 60.38% 2019 31-28 52.54% 2020 24-15 61.54% 2021 28-29 49.12% 2022 25-31 44.64% Platinum 2015 2-1 66.67% 2016 4-4 50% 2017 6-4 60% 2018 6-11 35.29% 2019 11-5 68.75% 2020 2-5 28.57 % 2021 5-9 35.71% 2022 3-5 37.5%

2022 NFL Computer Model Overall 130-147 46.93% Playoffs 6-4 60% Platinum 3-5 37.5% Premium 25-31 44.64% Recommended Plays 28-36 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75% 2022 Our Plays NFL Overall 66-36 64.70% Playoffs 6-6 50% NFL Props 0-2 0% NFL Odds Boosts 9-7 +610 NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-6 -270

I still believe Denver wins a short series. Miami has no options but to hope the fringe Nuggets do not score and someone from the Heat scores 20+ or they make all their threes.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
Den -3.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

No Sweat SGP (DK)
They are doing this every single day now!

FD Profit Boost Ringer Special
Nuggets to win in 4 or 5 games +140 Boosted

NBA
DEN -1.5 Games -155 (DK)
DEN -3.5

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 366-391 48.34%
Playoffs 37-35 51.38%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 28-20 58.33%
Props 2-2 +020
Odds Boost 12-7 +815
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 2-2 +015

I would say this line is very fair. Our model has it set to Denver -3. I continue to believe Denver is better and Miami cannot keep shooting like this.,

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
DEN -2.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

No Sweat SGP (DK)
They are doing this every single day now!

FD Profit Boost Ringer Special
Nuggets to win in 4 or 5 games +140 Boosted

I am playing the DK boost on Butler and Murray to score 25+.

NBA
DEN -1.5 Games -155 (DK)
DEN -2.5

MLB

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 365-391 48.28%
Playoffs 36-35 50.70%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 27-20 57.44%
Props 2-2 +020
Odds Boost 11-7 +715
Parlays 5-12 -683
MLB 2-2 +015

Miami has clearly defied the odds to make the finals, but have they beaten any actually good consistent teams? There are runs when teams are able to upset better teams on their way to winning a title. I think of the Dallas Mavericks with Jason Kidd and Jason Terry playing exceptionally well while Dirk was the leader. Normally, these teams have been underrated due to injury, coaching, or happenstance items that can be out of their control. (Like the lockout season of 1999, or the Derrick Rose getting hurt when he did.) This occurs frequently in the NCAA Tournament where the one-game-playoff can really affect outcomes. This is not supposed to happen in the NBA. In a seven-game series, the better team usually wins. Which brings me back to my starting point, did Miami really beat any good teams?

The Bucks were clearly better, when Giannis was healthy. However, he was injured, and the series was never the same. The Knicks were not deep at all and Thibs coached teams always fade in the playoffs. Boston on paper has always looked fantastic. Vegas and most computer models love them, ours included. (This includes last year where I still feel the Celtics could have won the title.) Yet, there was no consistency, their home record was shockingly bad and there is no need to pile onto the coaching quagmire they have been in since the Fall. If you add all of this up, Miami did not really have to beat any solid, healthy consistent NBA teams to make the NBA Finals. This is not supposed to happen the NBA.

Think about this in a different way, could the Heat have won their way on the same path as the Nuggets and made the Finals? Miami could have beat Minnesota. The Wolves were just as inconsistent as plenty of other teams. While the Suns bench was weak, I have a hard time seeing this Heat team beating the Suns. Lastly, there is no chance this Heat team beats the Lakers in a series. Just in case you forgot, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. To me, this is a short series where the upset darlings get exposed by the team that has earned this over the last few years. There is no answer for Jokic. Miami will not score enough to stay with the Nuggets at all. Denver plays the game as it is meant to be played, passing, ball movement, extra passes followed by great looks. Bam is nowhere near the defender than Anthony Davis is, and we saw how that played out. Miami will try a myriad of defenders and options, to no avail.

I have bet the Nuggets in four and the Nuggets to win the series by -1.5 games. I also hit up that Ringer special wager of Nuggets in four or five games. They have a boost, but the max is tiny as you would imagine. In terms of game one, our model has the spread at eight. While there is a lean toward Miami, I am all over Denver. Miami played a seven-game-series that just ended, now has to travel to Denver to play in the altitude while the Nuggets are well rested. Game one will be a Nuggets huge win. I think there is a chance it is a massive blowout and I have also bet Denver -19.5, which you can find at +350 over on Fan Duel.

Denver has been one of the best, most consistent teams in the league all year long. Barring some weird injury, this series will not be close. The Heat run into a team they can not scheme and coach their way through. The best team will win, convincingly. This is years in the making and I am not hedging my Nuggets futures. As you can tell, if anything, I am doubling down. Nuggets in Four.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
MIA +8.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

No Sweat SGP (DK)
They are doing this every single day now!

FD Profit Boost Ringer Special
Nuggets to win in 4 or 5 games +140 Boosted

NBA
DEN -8.5
DEN -19.5 +350 FD
DEN -1.5 Games -155 (DK)
DEN to win 4-0 +450 FD

MLB
TOR -1.5 Runs +130


2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 365-389 48.40%
Playoffs 36-33 52.17%
Premium 8-15 34.78%
Our Plays 26-19 57.77%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 11-7 +715