We are now well past the half way point of the season and Thanksgiving is upon us. I have usually used my bye weeks on Thanksgiving, because everything is just a little off. I like routine and consistency. Those things did not help me last week as I went 1-4 for my first losing week of the season. Nevertheless, we are still doing very well in contests and need to right the ship this week. I do feel much better this week about games than last week.

The Bears are apparently a public team now after their offense has exploded. The issue is they cannot defend anyone. Perhaps trading your best two defenders from an already struggling defense is bad. Atlanta gets a chance to bounce back and do exactly what they want and run it a ton. The Bears run defense is awful. I have the Falcons -3 on my short list.

I was ready to take the Browns in the snow in Buffalo. Oops, we are headed to Detroit. Buffalo gets to play two games in Detroit in four days now. Weird quirk. I lean Buffalo because the Browns pass defense has been awful and they got almost no pressure last week. Pass on this game.

The Eagles coming off a loss are laying a touchdown on the road. I am never laying a touchdown on the road. Pass on this game.

Baltimore coming off a bye week gets a bad team at home. This used to be the spot the Ravens crushed, but it has not exactly been there this year. I hate laying big numbers this year especially. Pass for me.

Washington won a huge game on Monday night and now have to travel to play Houston. Bad QB on the road, short week, and they are favored? I am taking the Texans +3.5. Davis Mills has been much better at home as well. I like this all the way to Houston +3. After that, I would stay away.

The Lions on the road outdoors again? I lean Giants because the Lions run defense is god-awful. I am passing for now, but Giants sneakily on my short list.

I want to take the Patriots here, because it is Zach Wilson in New England. Yet, I have reservations with the Patriots quarterback situation as well. Pats on the short list, but passing for now.

This line is all over the place. The Rams are bad and so are the Saints. I hate this game, passing.

Speaking of bad games. I never get the Raiders right. Russ may be cooked. Pass.

A home dog which will finally have their entire defense back healthy coming off a nice win against a team that has struggled to pass block and missing their best offensive weapon. I think you know, but I am all over the Steelers +4.

Minnesota had the following things go right for them just in the fourth quarter and overtime: Buffalo failed on 4^th and two when up 10 points. Justin Jefferson caught a miraculous 4^th and 18 conversion. Josh Allen dropped a snap resulting in a TD. Josh Allen threw an unforced pick to end the game. If any of those go the way of Buffalo, this line is Dallas -3. Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Vikings as their pass rush can cause problems. Cooper Rush won in Minnesota last year. I am on Dallas -1.5.

A home dog is getting their two best receivers back, while the other team is losing two of their key receivers. A loss here and it is officially, “it is getting late early” time for the Chargers. The Chiefs have been dying to blow a game recently, but neither the Titans, nor the Jags could take it. I am on the Chargers +5.5. This changes if both or one of Allen and Williams are not coming back.

I want to take the home dog Cardinals getting over a touchdown, but the game is actually in Mexico City. I am passing here, but I do lean Cardinals.

Here we are with four games we like right now. Finding the fifth is always difficult.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to eight people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!

Week 11 Buffalo
Week 10 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium
PHI -7


Regular
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
BUF -7.5
NYJ +3.5
LAR +4.5
NYG -3
CAR +13
HOU +3
LVR -3
DAL -1.5
CIN -4
LAC +5.5
ARZ +8

NFL Odds Boosts.

No Sweat SGP (FD)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

No Sweat SGP (DK)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
HOU +3.5
DAL -1.5
PITT +4
LAC +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 69-78 46.93%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-20 45.94%
Recommended Plays 20-24 (Platinum + Premium) 45.45%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-15 68.75%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 35-17 67.30%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

We are now well past the half way point of the season and Thanksgiving is upon us. I have usually used my bye weeks on Thanksgiving, because everything is just a little off. I like routine and consistency. Those things did not help me last week as I went 1-4 for my first losing week of the season. Nevertheless, we are still doing very well in contests and need to right the ship this week. I do feel much better this week about games than last week.

The Bears are apparently a public team now after their offense has exploded. The issue is they cannot defend anyone. Perhaps trading your best two defenders from an already struggling defense is bad. Atlanta gets a chance to bounce back and do exactly what they want and run it a ton. The Bears run defense is awful. I have the Falcons -3 on my short list.

I was ready to take the Browns in the snow in Buffalo. Oops, we are headed to Detroit. Buffalo gets to play two games in Detroit in four days now. Weird quirk. I lean Buffalo because the Browns pass defense has been awful and they got almost no pressure last week. Pass on this game.

The Eagles coming off a loss are laying a touchdown on the road. I am never laying a touchdown on the road. Pass on this game.

Baltimore coming off a bye week gets a bad team at home. This used to be the spot the Ravens crushed, but it has not exactly been there this year. I hate laying big numbers this year especially. Pass for me.

Washington won a huge game on Monday night and now have to travel to play Houston. Bad QB on the road, short week, and they are favored? I am taking the Texans +3.5. Davis Mills has been much better at home as well. I like this all the way to Houston +3. After that, I would stay away.

The Lions on the road outdoors again? I lean Giants because the Lions run defense is god-awful. I am passing for now, but Giants sneakily on my short list.

I want to take the Patriots here, because it is Zach Wilson in New England. Yet, I have reservations with the Patriots quarterback situation as well. Pats on the short list, but passing for now.

This line is all over the place. The Rams are bad and so are the Saints. I hate this game, passing.

Speaking of bad games. I never get the Raiders right. Russ may be cooked. Pass.

A home dog which will finally have their entire defense back healthy coming off a nice win against a team that has struggled to pass block and missing their best offensive weapon. I think you know, but I am all over the Steelers +4.

Minnesota had the following things go right for them just in the fourth quarter and overtime: Buffalo failed on 4^th and two when up 10 points. Justin Jefferson caught a miraculous 4^th and 18 conversion. Josh Allen dropped a snap resulting in a TD. Josh Allen threw an unforced pick to end the game. If any of those go the way of Buffalo, this line is Dallas -3. Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Vikings as their pass rush can cause problems. Cooper Rush won in Minnesota last year. I am on Dallas -1.5.

A home dog is getting their two best receivers back, while the other team is losing two of their key receivers. A loss here and it is officially, “it is getting late early” time for the Chargers. The Chiefs have been dying to blow a game recently, but neither the Titans, nor the Jags could take it. I am on the Chargers +5.5. This changes if both or one of Allen and Williams are not coming back.

I want to take the home dog Cardinals getting over a touchdown, but the game is actually in Mexico City. I am passing here, but I do lean Cardinals.

Here we are with four games we like right now. Finding the fifth is always difficult.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to eight people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!

Week 11 Buffalo
Week 10 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium
PHI -7


Regular
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
BUF -7.5
NYJ +3.5
LAR +4.5
NYG -3
CAR +13
HOU +3
LVR -3
DAL -1.5
CIN -4
LAC +5.5
ARZ +8

NFL Odds Boosts.

No Sweat SGP (FD)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

No Sweat SGP (DK)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
HOU +3.5
DAL -1.5
PITT +4
LAC +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 69-78 46.93%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-20 45.94%
Recommended Plays 20-24 (Platinum + Premium) 45.45%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-15 68.75%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 35-17 67.30%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

Denver still has some people out sick. The Heat have several key starters out and the Thunder are getting some respect finally with the spread being only under six in Memphis. Last year, that number would have been double digits. The computer model has almost climbed back to even, while the premium plays have struggled. Tonight, the Knicks in Golden State are in that category.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium
NYK +7.5

Regular
MIA +5
MIL +1.5
CHA +9.5
HOU +5
MEM -5.5
CHI -9
DEN +9
BOS -2.5
UTA +1.5
DET +7

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 95-98 49.22%
Premium 5-8 38.46%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-2 +850
Parlays 0-3 -300

Look, I want to take the Titans and the points, but they have several players hurt on this short week. I think both these teams are bad, maybe the entire league is not very good. I lean Titans as I said, but I am not able to pull the trigger.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to nine people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!

Week 11
Week 10 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium



Regular
TEN +3.5

NFL Odds Boosts.
Henry 1+ TD/Henry 70+ Yards/Lazard 1+ TD +650 (FD)
This should pay +475. I am not down with anything that requires Lazard to score a TD. Pass for me, but this is a boost. Henry’s prop number is a godly 104.5.

No Sweat SGP (FD)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

No Sweat SGP (DK)
Get up to $10 Back in free bets.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 69-78 46.93%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-20 45.94%
Recommended Plays 20-24 (Platinum + Premium) 45.45%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-15 68.75%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 35-17 67.30%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500

As soon as the NFL stops on Thursday, we will get better Thursday NBA slates. At least SAS and SAC are a super fun DFS game!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
BRK +2.5
SAS +7
DET +9

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 93-97 48.94%
Premium 5-8 38.46%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-2 +850
Parlays 0-3 -300

Jokic is out for Denver and Bam is out for the Heat. The Thunder continue to score a bunch and play very well. I think I am going to jump on them tonight in Washington catching 4.5 points. If Jarrett Allen was playing I would be on the Cavs tonight, but I am still curious how this game plays. The Knicks are dogs in Denver, despite Jokic’s absence. That is hilarious. Everyone is speculating that Luka is going to sit for the Mavs; you can build an SGP centered around Spencer Dinwiddie and DFS over on FD. I may have done this in the hopes Luka sits and I have great numbers. They are the only players listed to use besides Luka.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
CHA -2.5
OKC +4.5
MIN -6.5
BOS -3
TOR +1.5
CLE +4
NOP -3
HOU +9
NYK +3.5
PHO -1

NBA Odds Boosts
Risk Free SGP FD for TNT Games.
This may be only $5 or $10.

NBA
OKC +4.5

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 85-95 47.22%
Premium 5-8 38.46%
Our Plays 2-4 33.33%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-1 +950
Parlays 0-3 -300

I am here for the smaller slates like this! The computer really likes the Spurs, but this is a back to back with travel and the flu may be going through San Antonio at the moment. The Pelicans have several key players listed questionable, as do the Nets. Be careful out there.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium


Regular
MEM +3.5
LAC +7
UTA -5
SAS +8
BRK +2

NBA Odds Boosts
Risk Free SGP FD for TNT Games.
This may be only $5 or $10.

Mystery College Hoops Boost (DK)
This is for the two major games tonight.

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 83-92 47.42%
Premium 5-8 38.46%
Our Plays 2-4 33.33%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-1 +950
Parlays 0-3 -300

I went 1-4 for my first losing week on the season. I dropped outside the top ten in all my larger picks contests. We must rebound next week! Tonight we have the Eagles in a spot they should win in a blowout. I hate laying double-digits and I am passing. I do have a nice TD scorer parlay that concludes with AJB. I am not cashing it out. Let it ride!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to nine people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!

Week 10 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium



Regular
PHI -11

NFL Odds Boosts.
There are several things to opt into on DK, daily. I recommend doing that before anything.

Hurts 200+ Passing Yards/Sanders 40+ rushing Yards/AJB 40+ receiving yards +130 (FD)
The first time they played, this came through. Sanders was the who struggled and the Eagles threw it a ton. This should pay -148. I am in. This seems like something that should happen.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
PHI ML/Hurts over 199.5 Passing Yards/Sanders over 54.5 Rushing Yards/AJB Over 59.5 Receiving Yards +180 (Use a boost)

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 69-77 47.26%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-20 45.94%
Recommended Plays 20-24 (Platinum + Premium) 45.45%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-15 68.75%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-5 +250
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-4 -400

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 35-17 67.30%
Odds Boosts 7-5 +250
Teasers and Parlays 0-4 -400

I guess we have to keep waiting for the end of the NFL season to have some fun NBA boosts. This is a great spot for Boston and for OKC to rest people. This is a road back-to-back for the Thunder.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium
BOS -12

Regular
ORL -1
DET +4.5
PHO +2
HOU +5.5
ATL +4
SAS +7.5

NBA Odds Boosts

NBA
BOS -12

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 80-88 47.61%
Premium 5-7 41.66%
Our Plays 2-3 40%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-1 +950
Parlays 0-3 -300

It’s Saturday and it is time to figure out my five picks for contests this week.

Seattle every single week should be favored according to out model. You just never know what you will get in Europe with these games, so I a fading. I think. Seattle is just flat out better and have been, but just like last week, it feels too easy for them to be a dog.

The Dolphins seem to win close games every week and Cleveland may have fixed itself coming off that Bengals win and a bye week. I believe you can throw on Miami and Cleveland will. Browns +3.5 are on my short list for Sunday.

I am not sure the Giants should be favored by more than three over anyone. Yet, here we are. I hate this game, but in one contest, Houston is +6.5, while being +4.5 in real life. Yes, that does not cross any major number the value intrigues me.

Jags catching +8.5 in KC feels odd to me. The Chiefs have struggled to cover big numbers, but there is no way I am backing the Jags after their big comeback last week. Pass.

Denver +2.5 is a play plenty of sharps are on, despite the Titans getting their QB back. Notice the line did not move at this point. You can throw on the Titans; maybe the Broncos fixed their issues. I am passing for not, but have some interest in Denver.

This is a wild spot. In all contests, the Bills are -3.5, but now the Bills are -6.5. I would assume that means Josh Allen is playing. This might be too much value to pass up on the Bills; after all, it is Kirk Cousins on the road against a great team.

The Bears are small 2.5-point favorites at home against the Detroit Lions. The Bears defense is bad, but this is Jared Goff on the road in around freezing weather. I am on Chicago -2.5. I do not care if this is a public spot. I went against Goff in New England outdoors a few weeks ago and I am doing it again Sunday.

I know they have looked awful. I know they cannot score. Just ignore the teams and bet the spot. One team played Monday Night and is now traveling as road favorites. The other team is coming off their bye week and getting back the best player on the team from injury. This is an awful spot for the Saints. I am on the Steelers +2.5. I am even going to go as far and call this the Kenny Pickett break out game.

I have no clue here. No one does. The Raiders should be able to easily beat the Colts, yet I think I am 1-3 in games involving Las Vegas this year. I am running away.

Aaron Rodgers as a home dog feels like a fantastic spot. However, I cannot. The Packers offensive line and lack of weapons will be a massive problem against the Dallas defense. Pass, but I have interest in the Cowboys.

I am going to guess Matt Stafford plays based upon the Rams being favored. Until we get that info in the morning, pass.

The Chargers are bad, but catching over a touchdown seems like a lot for the Niners to cover. I am passing for now.

So here we are. I have two games. I need to find three more by 1 PM tomorrow. I will of course tweet them out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to nine people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!

Week 10 Kansas City
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Reminder these are based on contest lines that lock Wednesday at midnight.
Platinum


Premium
SEA +2.5
JAX +9.5
CLE +3.5



Regular
ATL -2.5
BUF -3.5
DET +2.5
DEN +2.5
HOU +4.5
NO -2.5
IND +5
DAL -5
LAR -1.5
LAC +7
PHI -11

NFL Odds Boosts.
No sweat SGP (FD)
$25 MAX

No sweat SGP (DK)
$10

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 66-67 49.62%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-17 50%
Recommended Plays 20-21 (Platinum + Premium) 48.78%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 32-11 74.41%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-5 +250
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-4 -400

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 34-13 72.34%
Odds Boosts 7-5 +250
Teasers and Parlays 0-4 -400