Part of sports betting and playing daily fantasy sports is riding the ups and downs. You can get hot, go cold, get lucky and feel like everything is working against you at times. Then some night’s weird things happen, like stat corrections. Last night was a really good night for me on Draft Kings. I have been trying to take bigger shots in GPP’s with a friend of mine. Last night we almost crushed, well we thought we did.

It appeared we finished in second place and had won $20K. Awesome. These are the GPP nights you dream about. Big scores to make all that prep and hard work seem worth it. Turning $88 into $20K.

Then there was a stat correction. I don’t know exactly what it was or who was affected, but $15k was lost in the process. The drop from 2nd to 4^th meant “only” winning $5k in that GPP. If I had gone to sleep and woken up to see that I had won $5k I would have been ecstatic. Instead, I woke up and felt disappointed. What a weird feeling. Had my biggest score in a while and I didn’t feel great.

It took me a little while to realize it was my perception that was off. I never actually was winning $20k. That was a mistake, but I did really win $5k. In my other GPP’s I won another $1k collectively. With some time and perspective, I thought, what an amazing night.

Living the GPP life can be maddening. Some people may never get a four figure score. This was my second this NBA season. Yet, I had ZERO this NFL season. I had ZERO this past MLB season. I had ZERO last NBA season. Four years ago (The year the Warriors lost to the Cavs) I had FIVE four figure scores in six weeks.

I am not the first, nor will I be the last to preach bankroll management. The DFS game is difficult and people are getting better. All the study, hard work and prep in the world might mean nothing. Some nights if one player gets in foul trouble, shoots poorly, drops a touchdown or leaves early with an injury you are done. Never play too much money on a given night and remember these is always tomorrow. The same goes for sports betting. Sometimes I am betting $20 a game, sometimes a lot more. You don’t have to hit homeruns to build a bankroll. If you can grind out $50 a day that’s over $18k for a year. That’s a lot of extra money for your family, yourself, or to allow you to keep grinding.

This was the lineup from last night. There were a couple of decisions that were difficult that helped us land where we did. The biggest decision was actually Giannis vs KAT. Giannis in a pace up spot in a competitive game seemed so juicy. However, this NBA season I have a pretty strict rule. When the Atlanta Hawks play, stack against them. The Hawks play fast and can’t stop anyone. Twenty minutes before lock, yanked Giannis and put in KAT. Towns crushed and so did Tyus Jones for Minnesota. Nic Batum was severely under-priced on Draft Kings at $4700. Batum almost got 10x on his price. Once the Heat ruled out Whiteside I was ready to play Bam and Kelly Olynyk. One of my big DFS nights from a few years ago was playing Kelly O when he was on the Celtics against the Warriors. The Heat’s opponent last night, the Warriors. It felt almost like destiny putting him in the lineup.

In the late games I had three players in my lineup. Lebron was the unquestioned best play of the night. He was going to play 40+ minutes in a fast-paced match-up. Lebron’s price is about to get absurd for the next few weeks. In that same game Elf Payton has really blossomed now that Anthony Davis is playing limited minutes. He almost got to 7x on his $5200 price tag. The last man in the lineup was the key to winning all the money. Bogdan Bogdanovic, my new hero. Priced at only $4900, Bogdan almost got to 12x on his price. Better yet, he was only 4% owned in a majority of contests on Draft Kings. Add all that up and it is 361 Draft Kings points of fantasy goodness.

How do you celebrate a big win like this? Get right back on the grind today. Make sure you follow us on Twitter and Instagram to see our wagers and any DFS thoughts we may have. Good luck everyone!

 

NBA Record  46-37 (55.42%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-17 +483
College Basketball Record 8-8 (50%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-6 -350
Basketball Total Record 54-45 (54.54%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-20 +133

The 2018-2019 Lakers are dead. And everyone over 30 killed them. I wrote yesterday that if you can still find the “will the Lakers make the playoffs” betting odds, you should bet NO. After back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Memphis, the Lakers season is officially over. Yes, the Lakers are three games back of a playoff spot in the Western conference, but it’s not happening. The schedule is insane. Below is their schedule and a guess of what games they will be favored in.

NO – FAV
MIL
PHO – FAV
LAC – FAV
DEN
BOS
CHI – FAV
TOR
DET
NY – FAV
MIL
BKN
SAC
WASH – FAV
UTAH
CHA – FAV
NO – FAV
OKC
GS
LAC – FAV
UTAH
PORT

Even if they win every game they should be favored in, they would close 9-13. Go ahead and give them three more wins where they are a dog and they close 12-10. The Sacramento Kings who are two games ahead of the Lakers should be favored in at least 9 games down the stretch. If they just win the games they should be favored in the Kings would close 9-13 and remain ahead of the Lakers. Reminder, neither of these teams are in playoff position.

The Spurs are currently in the final playoff spot in the West and have a three game lead on the Lakers. The Spurs are struggling, but part of it was their long rodeo road trip. Derrick White just came back and the Spurs have a pretty nice closing schedule closing with Washington, Cleveland and Dallas. All three of those teams will be tanking like crazy the last week.

I see almost no path for the Lakers to make the playoffs. It is extremely dangerous to count out Lebron James, but if you watched any of the spotlights of him on defense from the last week, it feels much safer. James seems to be coasting on defense and barely making an effort at times. Of course, he gets his numbers and if you didn’t watch the games, it appears he is fine. He isn’t. Lebron’s defense is bad and the team around him can’t make up for his lapses. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russilo touched on this on Simmons podcast today. They even broke down why the Cavs team that beat the Warriors worked and how this Lakers team is not constructed in any way like that championship team.

While, the top four in the East is very good this year that hasn’t always been the case. Lebron almost effortlessly has been able to loaf to a top four seed in the East the last eight years. (He took time off in games last year. He took a Miami Vacation a few years ago in season) As I wrote earlier this year, the NBA is vastly different. Every team has a star and can make things very difficult. There are only a handful of bad teams, or teams that are tanking. Even those teams are playing extremely hard. The Knicks just won two games in a row thanks to Mitchell Robinson. Do the Knicks want to win? Of course not, but the players don’t know that, they just play hard. People who don’t watch the NBA would always say that players don’t try that hard or play defense. That could not be further from the truth now. The Knicks who are hoping to lose just beat Orlando and San Antonio. Lebron took a few days off playing defense and the internet is skewering him.

Even when the Lakers get back Lonzo Ball, this team does not have enough to compete every day in the deep western conference. If you want to know how desperate the Lakers are, they traded for Reggie Bullock and are playing him major minutes. Surrounding Lebron with shooters on a team that lacks them makes sense, but that was the best they could do at the trade deadline. The off season signings of KCP, Lance and Beasley all did not work out. KCP is a streaky shooter has been more cold than hot. Lance strummed his guitar for like three days and Beasley is now playing in China. Remember when everyone complained that the Suns bought out Tyson Chandler so the Lakers could sign him? He’s done too. Even Rondo, who had some nice stretches, has been wildly inconsistent. Almost like Rondo has been ever since he left Boston. Never forget the entire Dallas Mavericks team and organization told him to go away a few years ago. Don’t let that stretch the Anthony Davis and the Pelicans from last year fool you.

The Lakers best five-man lineup in terms of offensive and defensive rating is actually Lebron, McGee, Ingram, Ball and Kuzma. The problem? They have only played 18 games together. Notice how none of their older players (Except McGee) are in that lineup. The missing player who when given some minutes actually excelled is Josh Hart. Hart had a short stretch where he was knocking down shots and became the shooter that James needs around him. Yes, Hart is shooting only 33% from three this season, but his minutes have trended down just as the Lakers have faltered. In December and January, the Lakers went 19-11. Hart shot 38% from three in that stretch and Lebron was injured for some of it. Hart’s minutes became inconsistent in February and he is shooting 22.7% from three this month. Coincidentally, Rondo came back from injury in this time frame and Bullock joined the roster.

How do the Lakers fix this? They can’t this season. The best chance they have is to start their best five-man lineup. Perhaps until Ball comes back they should start Hart over Bullock. Even so the bench and those older guys are going to get crushed by other teams second units. Over the next two weeks the Lakers plays Milwaukee, Denver, Boston and Toronto. All of those teams second units will not only maintain leads against the Lakers, but grow them. Is it fair to compare their bench to those four teams, no. But that is where this Lakers season has landed. Not only must they play well the next two weeks, but they need to steal at least one of those games to realistically have any shot at the playoffs. CBS Sports gives the Lakers a 16% chance of making the playoffs. ESPN says they have a 17% chance. I say it’s actually 0%.

“The over should be good unless the Spurs come out flat on the road back-to-back.” I said this at lunch time yesterday. Guess what happened? The Spurs no showed (I Bet the Nets), but I thought they would at least score some. The Spurs defense continues to get worse, but they may still make the playoffs. Everyone is currently jumping on the “look at Lebron fail” bandwagon, but it is honestly not all his fault. The young kids have picked up their game, but the older veterans besides Lebron have been bad. The remaining schedule is brutal, 14 of their remaining 22 games against teams currently in the playoffs. Closing the season with OKC, GS, LAC, Utah and Portland looks impossible for the Lakers. If you can find a price on will the Lakers make the playoffs, I would bet no.

Tonight is a weird small NBA slate of only three games. That feels very strange for a Tuesday. Oddly, I don’t like any of the games betting wise. The lines seem fair. I kind of like the Magic, but that’s about it. DFS should be strange though as four of the better defensive teams (Boston, Toronto, OKC, Denver) account for a majority of the teams playing. This feels like a great spot to stack the Magic, despite the game total being lower than the other two games. Play a few cheap Magic players and use that extra salary to play a Jokic or a Westbrook.

Surprisingly, even the college basketball slate is pretty small today. I did notice that my new favorite team is playing. The last two times the Buffalo Bulls have played at home we have taken them and laid 15 and 18 points. Both times they won and covered easy. I am going right back to the well. They are significantly better at home that on the road. I am laying 14 with Buffalo against Akron.

Duke without Zion Williamson travels to Virginia Tech tonight and the line feels too small. A little over a week ago we took Virginia at VT and laid more points. Now, I get to bet Duke with a smaller spread? I get that Zion is out, but come on. VT has struggled with ranked teams going 2-4 against them. One of their wins was that game NC State shot like 10% and scored 24 points. VT WON WITH 47 POINTS. They may need a few more in this one. DUKE -3.5.

Two other teams almost made the cut, but I just didn’t feel as good about them. Kentucky is giving Arkansas 14, but the Wildcats have Tennessee Saturday and could easily look ahead and struggle. New Mexico is playing a San Jose State team that is like 3-23. I just can’t give up more than ten points backing a team that is 11-15. But throwing NM into a money line parlay makes sense to me.

My last wager of the night is a parlay.
Duke -3.5
Buffalo -14
New Mexico Money Line -600
Kentucky Money Line -2400
Orlando Magic Money Line -325

This Pays +479! Good luck everyone!

 

NBA Record  46-36 (56.09%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-17 +483
College Basketball Record 5-6 (45.45%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-3 -50
Basketball Total Record 51-42 (54.83%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-20 +433

Betting futures in sports is a very strange thing. What is your ultimate goal? To pick the winner? Well, sort of. While picking the winner does matter, finding value and hedge opportunities are more important and at times more lucrative.

Around this time last year, I looked at the Philadelphia Sixers schedule and thought they would make their way to the 3 seed. Kyrie had just been ruled out for the season and playoffs. Cleveland was collapsing and it certainly seemed like the top four seeds would be Toronto, Boston, Philly, Cleveland in some order. I didn’t trust Toronto and felt Cleveland was beatable. Obviously, the Celtics were done without Kyrie so why not bet Philly? At the time the Sixers were slated to be the five seed and not have any home court advantage. I checked my online website of the price for the Sixers to win the East and saw, +2800. I looked at the Sixers remaining schedule and decided they could get to the three seed and would have an injured Celtics team and a Raptors team that always loses in April.

I bet the Sixers at +2800 to win the East. The Sixers won three straight.

I bet the Sixers again, but at +2500 to win the East. The Sixers went on a run and earned the three seed.

Round one, Sixers beat the heat. The Celtics were next. They were young and didn’t have Kyrie. No need to hedge even though the Celtics were +400 to win the series. Oops. The Celtics won and Ben Simmons refused to shoot a jumper.

I should have hedged, but waited. I figured in the East Finals I could bet enough to make sure I showed a profit. Using some easy math, if I bet $100 twice on the Sixers to win the East, I was in for $200 aiming to win $5300. I figured that the Raptors or Cavs would be a slight favorite against Philly. Even if the Raps/Cavs were -150, I could bet $2500 on them and guarantee a win of at roughly $2000 no matter the result.

My Plan
Sixers win: Make $5300 on original wagers, lose $2500 on Raps/Cavs bet.
Result: Win $2800
Raps/Cavs win: Make $2000 on Raps/Cavs series win bet, Lose $200 on original wagers.
Result: Win $1800

By taking advantage of what I thought was tremendous value, I could set myself up for a win no matter what. Of course, the Celtics ruined that plan and I waited to hedge. Resulting in a loss of $200. Lesson learned.

So how can we take advantage of futures right now? In terms of the NBA there is only one team I am focused on. In the west I am looking at Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title. Yes, Golden State is probably going to win the championship. But, what if they don’t? If KD or Curry get hurt between now and then anything can happen. I don’t like the Nuggets for that reason though. The Nuggets set me up for an opportunity to make money. A $100 wager on Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title would pay $2800. Denver is currently the two seed in the west and should avoid Golden State until the western conference finals. At that point I could hedge and make a profit.

My Plan
Denver plays five games against tanking teams out of their final 22 games. They should hold on to the two seed and have home court against everyone, but the Warriors. Denver could match up with the Spurs, Clippers, Lakers, or Kings in round one. Denver would be a big favorite of -200 or more against all of them. I would not hedge or do anything in round one. In the western conference semi-finals, the Nuggets would play the Thunder. They have played twice this year and Denver won both. They play two more times in the final 22 games of the season. Depending upon how it plays out, I could bet the Thunder for a $100 to win the series at maybe +125. If the Thunder won, I would be up $25 and basically did all of this for nothing. At this moment I would not do that. I could even bet the deciding game, if I didn’t hedge the series price to make sure I broke even.

Once the Nuggets make the western finals is when I would hedge. If the Warriors are -250 I could bet $2000 and in $800 if the Warriors win. Minus my original $100 wager I would net $700. Of course these numbers and my plan could change. At this moment though I am locking in Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title.

In college basketball we have a weird situation. Duke is the prohibitive favorite. Betting Duke provides zero value. You could just bet Duke on the money line a few time and make up the same amount of money as their current price of +200. There are two teams I do have my eye on. My goal is to pick teams that avoid Duke as long as possible. How can I do that?

Duke is going to be the no.1 Overall seed unless Zion is hurt long term. They should be placed in the Eastern Region (DC). Gonzaga should be the no.1 seed in the West (Anaheim) and should in theory play Duke in the final four. I want to avoid that situation completely. I want to focus on the teams who should play Duke in the finals should they make it. Two teams jump out to me and both should not be placed in Duke’s region at all. The reason, they are in the same conference. The bracket committee tries to avoid teams from the same conference meeting up, unless they have no choice. In this case, two highly seeded teams should avoid Duke and provide value.

Virginia is slotted to be the no.1 seed in the south (Louisville). Yes, I know what happened last year. This team is better, shoots more threes and has a lottery pick. Virginia should be a double-digit favorite in their first two games at least. In the sweet 16 they will be favored too. After two games, I can look at betting on the money line against them to hedge. Regardless, I won’t have to worry about Duke until the finals.

North Carolina is slotted to be the no.2 seed in a region. I am hoping in the Midwest (Kansas City). Why do I think that can happen? The committee again will not put an ACC team in UNC with either Duke or Virginia. Of course, UNC could get shipped out west with Gonzaga. Either way, they will avoid Duke until the final four.

Both of these teams could actually win the title and could possibly be favored in every game, except for against Duke. I feel both of these teams give me the best opportunity to hedge in certain spots and make a profit. I am going to lock in Virginia at +1000 and North Carolina at +1600. In my dream scenario, they meet in the final four or for the title.

 

NBA Record  45-35 (56.25%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-16 +583
College Basketball Record 5-5 50%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-2 +50
Basketball Total Record 50-40 55.55%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-18 +633

Last night was certainly strange. The Kings pushed the Warriors to the limit. The Lakers came back and beat the Rockets. My two bets got crushed. I did terrible on DK. I won 90% of my cash games on FD, but the GPP cash line was almost the same. There was one silver lining on an otherwise meh night. Draft.com sent me a free $22 ticket to their welcome back NBA GPP. There were 7 people per draft and you have to beat those 7 to advance.

I ended up with the third pick and took Lebron. I thought the guard position was deep considering 14 of them would get drafted. I really wanted to get two of the better forward plays and one of five centers. In round two I ended up picking Tobias Harris. This worked out well. I waited on guard and landed Chris Paul in round three. Homerun pick. The key to me winning my group though was Al Horford in round four. He outscored everyone on my team. I finished with Caris LeVert who, as you know from yesterday’s write up, I loved. He busted, but my team did not. I advanced and now get to do it again today. Need to win the group tonight for a shot at any real money.

In terms of wagers tonight I have my eyes on two games. I really like the Thunder tonight against the Jazz. OKC lost in their last game before the break and are healthy. They even added Markief Morris, which should bolster the second unit. This Jazz team crushed the Thunder in the playoffs last year and I think RWB remembers that. I am laying the 4.5.

I played Buffalo the other night and get a chance to do it again. Buffalo will be on ESPN2 tonight and as I said last week, they are much better at home. I will lay the 15.5 and watch Buffalo drop 80+ again!

I have one crazy wager for tonight. It is an 8 team NBA Money Line Parlay (With Buffalo). I know, that seems insane, but hear me out. Post break it is time to target teams that are trying to lose. I think it is a good night to take advantage of that. Throw $20 and you can collect around $340.
Charlotte
Indiana
Orlando
Toronto
Minnesota
Detroit
Denver
OKC
Buffalo (CBB)
This Pays +1706!!!

DFS tonight is odd because of the Memphis situation. It certainly seems like the Grizzlies will only have 3-4 front court players. In the year of 2019, it may be Joakim Noah night. Noah and Ivan Raab are going to be great plays. Then we must follow our normal rule of stacking against the Atlanta Hawks and we basically have a nice lineup from there. (Reggie Jackson, pick a SG, Blake, Drummond)

Good luck everyone!

 

 

NBA Record  44-34 (56.41%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-14 +883
College Basketball Record 4-3 57.14%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-1 +150
Basketball Total Record 48-37 56.47%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-15 +1033

Last night should have been easier than it was. If you follow us on Twitter and Instagram, if you aren’t what are you doing? We had UNC +9, UNDER 165 UNC/Duke and we parlayed them together. THE UNDER SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN IN DOUBT. A random elbow that results in three free throws with no time going off the clock. Both teams randomly fouling in a 15-point game with under two minutes left. I don’t want to ever hear again how people play defense in college and not in the NBA. North Carolina scored uncontested layups at will! We had to sweat the last few minutes but we got there. The record at the bottom of the page has been updated and things are going well. Have to keep it up!

UCONN and SMU have both underachieved this year. Frankly, neither team is any good. Why am I interested in this game then? The two teams played about a month ago and UCONN won by 12 at home against SMU. Since that game, SMU is on a five game losing streak. UCONN hasn’t exactly set the world on fire either. I just can’t fathom why a team that lost by 12 to an opponent and then lost five straight games is giving 6.5 to anyone. Take UCONN +6.5.

If you have been following you know I have been targeting the Nets totals. The Nets have been playing fast and they are deep. Caris LeVert is back and played 31 minutes in their last game. LeVert just got to rest over the Break and should be ready to play close to a full complement of minutes.

Nets Last Four Games Points They Scored
148
125
106
135

Portland Last Four Games Points They Scored
129
111
101
127

Both Teams have guys that can score a lot. Both teams are deep and their bench can fill it up as well. Maybe there might be some rust after a week off, but I don’t see it. Take OVER 229.5.

 

Both major sites have big DFS contests to welcome the NBA back. Of course we are playing in them and have some thoughts. The most important thing is that it is BOBAN night. Boban should start for the Sixers and play close to 25 minutes. He is close to the min price on every site. Just lock him in everywhere.

Players I am Interested In:
1. Sexton – What does he have to do to get his price raised?
2. Dame – I like the over so, yeah.
3. Chris Paul – Price is too cheap. Should be over 8K.
4. King Booker – Cleveland is bad.
5. Jimmy Butler – Fantasy points per minute skyrocket without Embiid.
6. LeVert – I like the over.
7. Osman – Too cheap on FD.
8. Joe Harris – Won me money during 3 point contest!
10. Lebron – Playoff mode engaged.
11. Harrison Barnes – DK Only.
12. Josh Jackson – Maybe I should bet Suns and Cavs over?
13. Kyle Kuzma – Too cheap.
14. BOOGIE – Revenge and minutes going up.

Good luck to everyone!

NBA Record  44-33 (57.14%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-13 +983
College Basketball Record 4-2 66.66%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-1 +150
Basketball Total Record 48-35 57.83%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-14 +1133

Waiting for the NBA to come back is torture. I thought they came back tonight, but it is actually Thursday. UGH. Things have been going pretty well and I want to keep it going!

If you follow us on Twitter and Instagram, you say what we have been up to. On Saturday we had Joe Harris at +600 to win the three-point contest. Harris came out hot and held off Steph Curry to win.  I had an All-Star Saturday night party, people came over and I think we were the only people cheering for Joe Harris besides the Brooklyn Nets and the Harris family. Nothing is more fun than telling an entire party who you bet on and having everyone cheer for that person.

On Sunday I kind of wanted to bet Team Lebron, but felt that was almost too degenerate to bet the All Star Game. The three-point contest is fine, but the randomly drafted game itself is too far!

Last night we took two NCAA basketball games. In the first game we had Virginia -5.5 at Virginia Tech. The end of this game drove me insane. Virginia up 8 with 15 seconds left broke the VT press and threw the ball down the court for a wide open cover-sealing dunk.

HE MISSED.

Not only did he miss, he missed so strongly VT got the ball quickly and launched a three.

MISSED.

Bullet dodged. Virginia rebound with under 8 seconds left up 8…VT fouls. THIS IS FINE. Just make one free throw and no matter what we can cover.

HE MISSED THE FREE THROW.

Here comes Virginia Tech to ruin my night. They drive down and score an uncontested layup? Time runs out and Virginia wins by 6. THIS WAS WAY HARDER THAN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN. Still, a win.

The second game we took was Illinois +9.5 at Wisconsin. Illinois had been playing well winning four in a row. It felt like Illinois would hang close all game and maybe still this one on the road. Wisconsin was up a few points all game, but never got up more than six the entire second half. A lot less stress than the other game. Easy win.

For tonight we are looking at three games. Purdue -6 at Indiana. Indiana has the strangest against the spread record. They have lost 8 of their last 9 overall and against the spread. Their lone win? They won at Michigan State. That Michigan State game is bizarre and the Hoosiers shot insanely well. That appears unlikely to happen again as their history suggests. Take Purdue -6.

Buffalo is 22-3 and has struggled against the spread. If you look at their numbers a little more closely, they are much better at home against the spread. Ohio has lost five straight games and are 5 and 21 against the spread. 5-21. Of their five spread wins four have come at home and two, including their lone road cover have come against Ball State. Stick with Buffalo -18.

Three weeks ago Drake won at Bradley by 17. Tonight Drake hosts Bradley and they are giving…4. Wait, what? If this was an NFL game or an NBA game, I would think something was wrong. Since it is a small college basketball game I am going to try and take advantage. Perhaps the odds makers just can’t get the spread correct for Drake as they are 19-5-2 against the spread this year. Take Drake and lay the four.

If you want to have some real fun parlay all three and add the Tennessee Money Line. Yes, the money line is like -4000, but it takes you from +600 and adds a little more money. Good luck everyone!

 

 

NBA Record  44-33 (57.14%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-13 +983
College Basketball Record 2-2 50%

Bill Simmons finally started writing again and graced us with his NBA Trade Value Chart. This is version 2.0 and version 3.0 will come out I assume after the season ends. I will make no secret that I love the Ringer. I have a few of their shirts (Blog Boy and Irrational Confidence Guy) and enjoy their podcasts daily. The provide me with hours of entertainment and content while working, relaxing, driving or cleaning the house. I can’t deal with silence ever; it drives me crazy. Thanks to my children I must always have something on or I feel weird.

After reading NBA Trade Value 2.0 I started thinking about who is actually the most valuable to the Ringer? Is this list subjective? Of course. These are my Ringer Trade Value Rankings in reverse order.

 

Category 1 Ringer Friends and Family

House From D.C. – I really like when he is on a podcast, but don’t like when he hosts. Is that a weird take? I just want videos of him eating posted daily. Should be Simmons Friday Rolling co-host every Friday during NFL season.

Cousin Sal – I like AAO as a podcast, but Simmons and Cousin Sal in the Fall is everything. Moving to Sunday night was genius. I wake up every Monday and dive to work excited to hear them guess the lines. It feels like all is right in the world when it’s early September and Cousin Sal and Bill Simmons are back discussing gambling.

Nephew Kyle – The only podcast producer I wish talked more. Plus, the only Ringer employee who should have a reality show on before The Challenge.

Category 2 I like what they do, but wish there was more.

Sean Fennessey – I want him on more episodes of the Rewatchables. I don’t listen to enough of the Channel 33 stuff, but I enjoy his historic takes on movies and the Oscars. I know he does a ton at the site, but I want more.

Andy Greenwald – I love The Watch. I am part of the Facebook group. He has to be this low on the list because his own show means he will do less and less for the Ringer. I already miss the old Watch Pod and it hasn’t even changed yet.

David Shoemaker – I want more WWE content. I want him to write a column and have the Masked Man Show Pod consistently once a week. He also needs a solid consistent co-host for MMS. We can’t find one Ringer person to fill this roll?

Chris Vernon – My Favorite NBA Pod host. The man with the voice of a sixty-year-old in the body of a thirty something. Nothing was more shocking than seeing a picture of Chris Vernon and thinking “wait what? That’s not him.”

Category 3 The People Who Should get more love

Kevin O’Conner – Like him on pods and like his writing. I want Bill Simmons to raise his minutes like Tom Thibodeau would to all of his starters in early December. Run him into the ground during playoffs, lottery, draft and free agency.

Pat Muldowney – Social Media Specialist for the Ringer. As a Pittsburgh guy I am happy there is SOMEONE representing Pittsburgh at the Ringer.  I want him to pop up on every Simmons pod and defend the Steelers for one minute a week. Boston, New York and Philly are so well represented by employees. This man has to carry the Pittsburgh flag into battle.

Category 4 I’m in and going to try everything they do

Mallory Rubin – The mother of dragons was great on the GOT after show and made binge mode work due to depth of knowledge. Those pods can be long and there are lots of them, but she makes them work. As a Steeler fan I enjoy her Ravens despair.

Jason Conception – I wanted to just call him Network, even though that’s not his name. Everyone loves NBA Desktop. It’s my favorite web based show. (Netflix excluded obviously) Every Pod he is on he raises the energy level and comedic value. His laugh is so unique and makes me laugh too. I want a Shea and Jay Pod weekly. Can that happen?

Shea Serrano – The best on Twitter and when I hear he is joining a pod I get pumped. I listened to episodes of Villains about movies I have not watched because of Shea. Shea’s journey from educator to writer is inspiring. I respect his journey and cheer for his continued success. I purchased the Book on Basketball and will be ordering his new movie book as well. FOH Army is strong.

Category 5 Without them there is no Ringer

Chris Ryan – This guys will jump on every pod, web series, live stream,  or anything he can. He always seems so knowledgeable and his diverse interests fit the Ringer and what I enjoy so well. Without him I am not so sure the Ringer is what it is. I don’t think Chris Ryan can go any higher on this list, but if I was a media company I would try to hire him away.

Bill Simmons – I have been with Bill Simmons since 2001. I remember the first words I read of his. “You know that blurry circle they put on naked people in the Real World, why don’t they call it a Blurcle.” I was in after one line. College age me was like “yeah, that’s a great idea.” I have followed every destination along the way. ESPN, Grantland, HBO and now The Ringer. I don’t know who else could build a following like this in diverse ways. I’m in and will always be in. He makes a documentary; I’m going to watch it. New Podcast, I’m going to try it. He gets the benefit of the doubt for me. Much in the same way I trust any movie The Rock makes, I trust any content Simmons Makes.

 

I know I missed a whole bunch of people. But this is who I like and my power rankings! What does yours look like? Let me know on Twitter and follow us here!

Last night did not go well. Playing Terrance Ross in what turned into a blowout means he didn’t come close. Ross kept me from cashing on Draft Kings and a number of issues did on Fan Duel. I played JaVale McGee despite his higher price and he busted too. One bust you can overcome on FD, but not too. Oh well, the best part of DFS is today is another day!

The Sixer continue to not be able to solve the Celtics puzzle. I can point to that big no-call on Horford against Embiid late, but really Butler needs to hit those free throws. Celtics continue to own the Sixers and as a Sixers fan it is very frustrating. Obviously, the Sixers didn’t cover and lost outright.

Despite betting against the Celtics, I really want to bet them tonight. I just can’t on the back-to-back. They are at home and will be without Rozier and Kyrie, yet I still like them. I am going to try my best to stay away. There are two games I do really like. Milwaukee with some rest giving four at the Pacers. The team with the best record in the East will close out before the all-star break with a big win. Pacers have overachieved and I doubt they will remain where they are in the East. Take the Bucks -4.

The Nets and Cavs have played twice this year and both times the Under has come in easily. These two teams are now dramatically different. The Cavs can’t defend anyone and Brooklyn is healthy. I keep saying this about the Nets, but they are a playoff team. This feels like a good spot where both teams score a bunch. Why?
Nets last three games total points
265
231
252

Cavs last three games total points
211
195
225

I see a trend here where the Nets are playing super-fast and help drive their opponents pace as well. I am taking OVER 223 in this one. I also suggest a small parlay of them together and you can add the Sixers Money Line for a nice +338 parlay!

 

People I am considering for DFS
1. Brad Wanamaker – The last time the Celtics had two PG’s out he played 26 minutes and put up 13-4-3. He is the minimum on FD and 3200 on DK. He can 10x his salary and help you fit in some big names. No one will be on him, but I think it’s a sharp play.
2. Dame – Crushes at home against the Warriors. Too cheap on DK.
3. Kyle Lowry – If Kawhai rests.
4. Collin Sexton – Notice what I said about Nets pushing pace?
5. Jamal Murray – The Kings play fast and he’s healthy again.
6. DSJ – Lock for 35 it appears.
7. DeAngelo Russell – I never get him right.
8. James Harden – Close spread should play a lot.
9. Jaylen Brown – Anytime Kyrie is out.
10. Marcus Morris – Anytime Kyrie is out.
11. Zach Lavine – Too cheap on DK
12. Devin Booker – I love me some Booker and may land on him.
13. Giannis – Closer game should play full amount of minutes.
14. Gallo – FD price is nice.
15. KD – Boogie is sitting tonight.
16. Nance – Keep playing him in pace up spots.
17. Marques Chriss – If he starts.
18. Siakiam and Ibaka – If Kawhai sits.
19. JJJ – Depends who plays for Memphis.
20. Ayton – He keeps sucking me in under 7k on DK.

If you want to talk lineups or ask what I am thinking closer to lineup lock, hit me up on twitter! Good Luck everyone!

 

NBA Record  42-32 (56.75%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 5-12 +165
College Basketball Record 0-2

See it can happen. We are allowed to actually hit a parlay and go 3-0 in a night. After several 3-1 or 4-1 or 3-2 nights finally sweeping the board helps. The Heat performed exactly like I thought they would. It was a scheduled loss if you will. You will notice down below despite being 5-12 on parlays I am actually up money now. Time to keep it going tonight!

It is smaller five game NBA slate and only one game sticks out to me. The Celtics are not great on the road especially against the spread. Kyrie Irving is sitting out and the Sixers are scoring at an insane rate post Tobias Harris trade. This feels like a spot where the Celtics hang around for a while, but fade late. I’m taking the Sixers -7.

In terms of DFS last night was so strange. I swept the board in cash games on Fan Duel despite this lineup. Yes, that is three players under 8. EIGHT. No complaints here though as I keep playing Paul George while the rest of the world fades him.

On Draft Kings I swept cash games and cashed in half of my GPPs. This again even though I had two guys score under 8 DK points. That’s crazy. If I change out any of these duds for others I have a very nice night, especially on DK. All that matters is making some money and being able to play another night.

People I am Considering:
1. All the Lakers – Play four on FD and 5 on DK. No, seriously, I keep stacking against the Hawks and it works.
2. Trae Young and John Collins – Yeah the Lakers don’t play defense either.
3. Marcus Morris – When Kyrie is out play him.
4. Jaylen Brown – When Kyrie is out play him.
5. Terry Rozier – Man the price is high, but he’s on my short list.
6. Ben Simmons – This is for DK only. LOOK AT THAT PRICE.
7. Mike Conley – I mean his usage is through the roof.
8. Terrance Ross – Pace up spot against NO.
9. Jonathan Isaac – I played him on Sunday, but may not find him tonight.
10. Kenrich Williams – This is another DK only consideration.
11. Jae Crowder – Always get more run in big games.
12. Can the Warriors sit someone so we can play them again?

Only one bet and hopefully some good plays in DFS. Good luck to everyone!

 

NBA Record  42-31 (57.53%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 5-12 +165
College Basketball Record 0-2