The over has hit in every primetime game except for Carolina and Houston last Thursday. Could that trend continue tonight? The Jags cannot stop anyone, but do we really feel comfortable laying more than a touchdown with the Bengals? This feels wrong. Yet, the computer model loves Cincinnati. The model feels they should be double-digit favorites and thus we have a platinum play on the Bengals.
I mentioned one of the boost below about fox bet giving out a free $5 wager every Thursday. I wish it paid more, but I threw it on Ja’Marr Chase for first TD at +550. I will also bet Chase on another site using real money. I have bet two boosts thus far for tonight and they are highlighted below. I have also bet two NFL games for this Sunday. I got good numbers, but wanted to mention them, they are also listed below. One is so chalky, I feel silly, but here we are.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
CIN -7.5
Premium
Regular Plays
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.
Joe Burrow to have 1+ passing TDs in each half +170
I hate timed boosts, but Joey B should be able to throw with ease. The Jags have been awful in almost every facet of the game. Burrow’s passing TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over is extremely heavily juiced at -215. This is incredibly high in terms of a juiced prop. On another site it is only -195 for over 1.5 passing TD’s. Either way that is tough to swallow. I know I pass on boosts, but I am trying to look at this as betting the over on his prop at +170. While I despise the timed part of this boost, I am going to take a shot here. I am in.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
I tweeted about it, but look at all the Brady boosts they have posted. They are not great at this time. Maybe they add more.
10+ points in 1st quarter +105
I hate timed boosts. Pass.
Chase to record a 45+ yard TD +700
The Jags are in the top five for most 15+-yard completions given up in the NFL. Nevertheless, this has to be a touchdown. Chase could make a big play and not sure. This is asking a lot. If you have a free bet and want to use it on something, this would be fun to sweat. I am passing.
BUFF/CLE/TB ML Parlay +175
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh here we go. If you are a long time reader I talked over the last year how the sites will throw a name into a parlay boost like this, but it is deceiving. The sites will use the Yankees in baseball or the Lakers when players are resting and try to trick people into betting this. TB and BUFF are favorites and should be fine. Cleveland is giving two in Minnesota. The Vikings could easily be 3-0. If you recall, I threw out the Vikings as my 5th game in contests last week for the Bears. That was dumb. The Vikings as a home dog are very intriguing to me. This should pay +145, but I am passing.
Lawrence and Burrow to combine for 5+ Passing TD’s +250
I already mentioned Burrow’s passing TD prop and two touchdowns as a minimum seems pretty easy. Lawrence’s passing TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over pays +124. If you parlay both of them to go over their number of 1.5, aka a total of 4 passing TD’s it should pay +228. This feels like it has to really shoot out for the Jags to score enough here to make this worth it. I would rather have them both go over for +228, than add another TD for +250. I suppose this boost gives you a chance to have Burrow throw 4+ and Lawrence only 1 TD to get there. Pass.
Barstool Sportsbook
Mixon over 86.5 rushing yards/Chase over 69.5 receiving yards/CIN -7.5 +500
This should pay +438. These numbers are almost a match of their prop numbers. Chase’s number is one-yard higher here than it is on most of the sites. If you think The Bengals smash and have a big offensive game, you can fire here. This is right on the border for me as you need the Jags to be at least somewhat competitive, but then it calls into question the ability to cover the spread. I am passing here.
Fox Bet
Opt in and get your free $5 wager and throw it on someone random for first td.
Chase to record 50+ Yards receiving and score a TD +200
Chase is -125 to score an anytime TD. Chase’s prop number we know is well above this line. Chase is -290 to record 50+ receiving yards. This parlay should pay +132. I am in. With Higgins out again, the target tree is very concentrated for the Bengals. Chase continues to be targeted often and in the red zone. I am betting the max they will let me.
Mixon and James Robinson to rush for 50+ Yards each +100
We know what Mixon’s prop is set to. Mixon should have no issue barring injury from getting to this number. Robinson’s prop number is set to 53.5 yards. I was hoping this would be a boost really worth betting, but on another site, this should pay +102. If I can bet a boost at a better price anywhere, it is an easy pass. I am out.
NFL
TB -6.5
NYJ +7.5
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-29 40.81%
Platinum 1-1 50%
Premium 5-6 45.45%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-7 46.15%
Our Plays
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-10 -315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100
College Football
Overall 3-1 75%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 