The opening games are nice and all, but I know I prefer Sunday afternoon. Give me multiple games at once. Give me Redzone. Give me a reason to head to my basement and watch my multiple TV’s. Now that we can choose our own multi-view on NFL Sunday ticket, in theory with three TV’s you could watch 12 games at once. The NFL should never have 12 games in the early window, but the way they like to only have a handful in the afternoon, everything is in play. I am debating my setup, but obviously, the Steelers get the main screen for me. My set up is 75 inches in the middle and two 55-inch TV’s flanking on the side. Perhaps the more optimal play is Steelers on one side and a quad box on the main TV. Anyway, we are finally on to week one and all the games. Like last year I am participating in the Circa Millions contest and the DraftKings Pick’em Pool. Both contests require five games to be picked against the spread weekly. The lines in these contests are stagnant and I will mention how they differ. The Steelers are +2.5 on DK, but +3.5 over at Circa. Obviously, they matter a great deal.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +8 at CIN
I hate this game. Joe B is coming back from injury, the Bengals WR room is hurt both physically and mentally due to not having a new contract. The Patriots have no offensive line and will compete for the worst record in the NFL. This is a pass for me. The Bengals have started slowly the last few years in week one and I am not a fan of laying more than a TD with the Bengals in their current situation. When it is 21-0 at half time, I may feel dumb, but we do not need to bet every game. Bengals or Seahawks for survivor though.
ARZ +6.5 at BUF
Remember last year when Damar Hamlin could not even be active for the Bills during the season. Now he is going to start in the secondary. The Bills lost more talent than almost anyone in the NFL from last year and that is before even factoring in injuries they have sustained. Conversely, the Cardinals defense is not good. The Cardinals did not close out last year strongly finishing 2-3. However, the record does not tell the entire story. The Cardinals beat the Steelers in weather in Pittsburgh, got blown out by the Niners, lost in Chicago, beat the Eagles in Philly and then lost by one to Seattle. That is a little better than you would expect from a team that only won four games. Jonathon Gannon proved to be better than anticipated and the Cardinals are going to score. Two bad defenses and the dog has weapons at their disposal. I am on the Cardinals +6.5 in contests and I have bet them.
HOU -3 at IND
Danger! We have a short road divisional favorite. One team is getting all the love as a Super Bowl contender and one team has a QB that has played like 14 games in the last two years. The Colts won this game the first time they played and then lost by four on the road. The Texan’s offense was held to 20 and 23 points in those two matchups. I am not going to tell you to take the Colts as a home dog, but I am telling you to be weary of the Texans. This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. I have the Colts on my short list for contests and if they hits 3.5, I am playing Indy.
PIT +3.5 at ATL
If you are reading this you know I am a Steeler’s homer. Having said that, Mike Tomlin is exceptional as a dog. Both offenses will be vastly different from last year, but I do know this stadium will be half-full of Steeler fans and the Steelers defense is the best unit by far. If the NFL is going to call those offensive tackles for not being on the line-of-scrimmage, the Steelers pass rush is going to eat against a slow, achilles recovering QB that was never exactly a scrambler. If Arthur Smith can not come up with a successful game plan against his former team with months to prepare, then it will be a long season. Steelers +3.5 in contests and I have bet them.
JAX +3.5 at MIA
This game was rumored to have weather, but it appears they may dodge it now. The playbook has been bet Miami at home in September and fade them when the weather turns. This Miami defense is going to be bad and the Jags completely collapsed last year. I hate this game for contests and betting, but I could stack it up for DFS purposes. Pass for now.
TEN +3.5 at CHI
Rookie starters laying points in the NFL have been bad historically. This number has come down as some money has come in on the Titans. That is not your friend Joe Public betting the game. I am passing here, but want to watch.
CAR +4 at NO
The Panthers have been a professional darling, despite never coming through. This week Carolina is becoming a public dog. Always beware the public dog. The Saints will not be good and a QB change seems almost inevitable, not to mention a coaching one too. I want to take the Panthers, but the amount of late love here makes me hesitant. Panthers on the short list for now.
MIN -1.5 at NYG
I am sorry, Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold is a road favorite in the same building he uttered that infamous quote. Was the off-season Hard Knocks that bad for the perception of the Giants? The Giants won six games last year with an F from the quarterback position and no weapons. The defense is going to be better; the offense has to be better as well. If Sam Darnold beats me on the road, so be it. I am willing to take the chance here. NYG +1.5 in contests and as a bet.
DEN +6 at SEA
I am not playing a rookie QB on the road in a difficult stadium with a defensive-minded head coach. I lean Seattle here since Denver is going to be bad this year and have a bottom-five defense. Pass for now.
LVR +3 at LAC
Pass. I want to see what the Chargers are before being on them in any way. The Raiders defense is good, but this is the return match from that blowout-everyone-getting-fired game from last year.
DAL +2.5 at CLE
The Browns have a beat-up new offensive line. The Cowboys have a solid pass rush. Watson has not been good in four years. YEARS! I lean Dallas here. I know the Browns defense was exceptional at home last year, but I just do not believe in Cleveland. Dallas on the short list.
WAS +3.5 at TB
Rookie QB on the road, pass. I think both teams will be bad, but exciting. I am out on betting this game.
LAR +4.5 at DET
This line jumped a full point in the last day. We know Detroit is going to be good and have Super Bowl aspirations, but the Rams offense is going to be solid. I’m not so sure about their defense. Detroit at home as they play almost their entire schedule in doors will score points. I was leaning Rams, but this line movement scares me. Pass for now.
NYJ +4.5 at SF
I am prepared to be disappointed. The Jets are talented and have all the weapons they need to be good. The big question mark is of course at QB. If he is and stays healthy, sky is the limit. I am leaning toward this being a weird start for the Niners from the first-round pick being shot, to the hold outs, to the Aiyuk will he, won’t he thing that dragged on. I think that the Jets play well here and can win this game. I am ready to get hurt again by the Jets here and betting against the Niners in the regular season can be a bad financial decision. I have the Jets +4.5 in contests and a wager as well.
This is where I am. I have four games for my contests and have made four wagers at this point. I will post my contest plays Sunday morning.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Computer Model Plays
Premium
PIT +3.5
DAL +2.5
Regular Plays
GB +2.5
BUF -6.5
CHI -4
NE +8
IND +3
MIA -3.5
NO -4
SF -4.5
MIN -1.5
LVR +3
DEN +6
TB -3.5
LAR +3.5
My Plays
PIT +3.5
NYG +1.5
ARZ +6.5
NYJ +4.5
NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall 0-1 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-1 0%
My Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
Win The Weekends 