It feels good to be back. There is something about the seasons of the year and kids going back to school that has a certain rhythm. Football returning is an integral part. I like having NFL Sunday’s to base my weeks around. I like having the comfort and reliability of the NFL. I like being on a schedule in this weird, peculiar way with NFL games to end the week. Perhaps this season and moving forward they will be everyday of the week. For now, this is how I settle into the end of summer.
After working for Numberball for a few years, we returned to regularly posting the model plays and two seasons ago added in my personal plays. I was fortunate to have a fabulous season and finished very highly in the Draft Kings spread picks contest. Last season, while profitable, was not the same. In order to raise the bar so to speak I entered the Circa Millions contest as well as the Draft Kings contests. I finished roughly 3-4 games outside the money in both contests. Disappointing, but learned a lot of things and about my process and how to adjust to making picks a day earlier for Circa.
Here we are, back in our normal rhythm.
Below is the computer model from last season and cumulatively the results since we started running it in 2015. Hard to believe it has almost been a decade. Either way the magic number is 52.4% to be profitable betting NFL, provided you are betting into -110 lines. Reminder, the model is a tool and should be used as such, not the end all be all in making wagers. Still the model is sitting just over 52% in over 2300 NFL games.
This year will be more of the same. I will post the model plays and post my plays as well. I am sitting at a lofty 62% on NFL sides over the last two years. That will regress at some point as it did last year. My volume was way down last season. Advice do not move to a new home during the NFL season and take several trips as well. Those real-life events, coupled with kids sports and all the sudden there are a lot of distractions in your life. This year, we are settled in our new home. Kids sports are in full swing, but I am prepared and ready and will not be moving again for a long time.
On Thursdays I will post the computer model plays and then on Friday I will post my plays. My plays will give more reasoning on where I am leaning and why. If I have the time, I may make my final selections into YouTube Shorts or TikTok videos, but we shall see. Finally, on Sunday morning I will post my official selections for contests on Twitter/X.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NFL Computer Model
2023-2024 Season
Overall 134-139 49.08%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 24-25 48.97%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-30 45.45%
My Plays
2023 Overall 29-20-2 59.18%
2022 Overall 66-36 64.70%
Total 95-56 62.91%
Computer Model History
2015-2023
Overall 1199 – 1104 52.06%
Premium 255-231 52.40%
Platinum 40-49 44.94%
Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
2021 138-146 48.59%
2022 130-147 46.93%
2023 134-139 49.08%
Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
2021 28-29 49.12%
2022 25-31 44.64%
2023 24-25 48.97%
Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57 %
2021 5-9 35.71%
2022 3-5 37.5%
2023 1-5 16.66%
Win The Weekends 