We are on to Sunday! Remember there is a London game early! After some struggles last week, I feel much better about this week. As a reminder, this is where I sit in large field contests.
9-6 in DK
7-7-1 in Circa
ATL +3 at JAX (London) – I think you play the Jags, or you sit this one out. Atlanta has a QB problem, while the Jags generate no pressure and seem to have some red zone issues. I am leaning Jax but passing for now.
WAS +8.5 at PHI – The Commanders can not protect their QB. The Eagles generate a ton of pressure. The Eagle’s passing game is not clicking fully, yet, but they are running the ball extremely well. I lean Philly.
MIA +2.5 at BUF – Everyone loves the Dolphins, and the public will especially love them as a dog this week. The Bills defense is better than anticipated. People forget the Miami defense has not been great either. I think this is the Buffalo bounce back spot and the Dolphins come back to Earth. I bet the Bills -2.5 and will be using them in contests.
MIN -4 at CAR – I hate this game. The Panthers are awful, but I am not laying points with Cousins on the road. Pass.
PIT -2.5 at HOU – A small road dog normally is cause for alarm. However, the Texans offensive line is decimated and has even more guys out this week. This is a bet on the Steelers pass rush and defense. I am scared to predict the offense to actually break out because Matt Canada. This is the game Stroud turns it over and the Steelers defense makes the difference. I am backing the defense and laying the 2.5 in contests and for wagers.
CIN -2.5 at TEN – I think the Bengals are not very good, but man are the Titans bad. You can throw on Tennessee, which the Bengals should be able to do. The Titans at home as dog have been a printing press the last few years, but I am not sure I can do it. The Titans defensive line makes a huge difference, when we know the Bengals struggle to protect and less-than-mobile quarterback. Lean Titans.
BAL +2.5 at CLE – All kinds of rumors out there that Deshaun Watson is going to be out. The Ravens have their own injury issues. However, this is a great bounce back spot for the Ravens. While the Cleveland defense is exceptional, they have not exactly played a murders row of quarterbacks. I think Lamar plays very well and all the sudden Watson/DTR are being asked to score. That is a problem for the Browns. I bet Baltimore +2.5 and will use them in contests.
TB +3.5 at NO – Jameis is laying more than a FG. I lean Bucs. TB defense has been above average.
LAR -1 at IND – I hate this game, Pass.
DEN -3 at CHI – This game is even worse. Go look up Denver’s record as a favorite the last two years. Sheesh. Pass.
LVR +5.5 at LAC – We do not know the Raiders QB yet. However, I expect Ekeler to sit. Mike Williams is out. This is slightly larger number than it should be. Our model makes it around a field goal game. I will take the value once we know the starter for Las Vegas. Lean Raiders.
ARZ +14 at SF – Pass. I am using SF in survivor.
NE +6.5 at DAL – Earlier this week I was ready to fire on Dallas, but their offensive line injuries scare me. Professional money dropped this line from seven to six. I may just avoid this spot completely. I want to see who is out for the Cowboys.
KC -9 at NYJ – This number has come down from ten. Why? That is not public money. We have a team that struggles to cover big numbers on the road versus Zach Wilson. I almost swiftly took the Jets, but I hesitated and missed the best number. Pass for me, for now.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 4 San Francisco
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
BUF -2.5
BAL +2.5
LAR -1
LVR +5.5
NYJ +9.5
Regular Plays
GB +1.5
JAX -3
CHI +3.5
CIN -2.5
TB +3.5
PHI -8
CAR +4
PIT -2.5
NE +6.5
ARZ +14
SEA +1
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NFL
BAL +2.5
PIT -2.5
BUF -2.5
College Football
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NFL Computer Model
Overall 29-18 61.70%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 5-3 62.5%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-3 66.66%
Our Plays
Overall 8-6 57.14%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200
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