Every week is different, but we soldier on trying to go 3-2 or better in contests and of course win our bets. I have made three bets at this point and all three should be in my contest plays as well.
After two weeks here is where I sit in contests.
Circa 6-4
Draft Kings 7-3
Why is the record different? Circa locks early Saturday and DK I can take until 12:59 PM Sunday. I flipped Houston to Atlanta and that is the reason for the difference in records. I am happy to be where I am at the, but we must continue forward!
BUF -6.5 at WAS – Josh Allen seems to have problems with teams that can get pressure. Maybe surprisingly to you, the Commanders are getting pressure. This game may have some weather as well. We have a turnover prone quarterback facing pressure from a good defensive line in rain and wind. The Commanders can run the ball, but I am not so sure the Bills can. I am on the Commanders +6.5.
DEN +6.5 at MIA – Man, this feels like a trap. 0-2 Denver has struggled to say the least. This is your weekly reminder I thought the Broncos would suck last year. I have a little interest in Denver this week if Jaylen waddle is out. I think the prudent thing may be to just stay away from this game. Miami handled themselves on the road the last two weeks, now gets a home game in the heat. Pass for me.
HOU +8.5 at JAX – If Houston was healthy, or even partially healthy, I would be interested in the Texans. However, the Texans offensive line is missing key guys, the secondary keeps adding to the injury list as well. I know the Jags and Trevor Lawrence have had problems covering bigger numbers, but due to injury, I am passing.
ATL +3 at DET – This line has fallen all week long. Detroit suffered a multitude of injuries on the defensive side of the ball last week. Professionals are all over Atlanta and I get the case. The Falcon’s defense has been adequate, and their offense can move the ball. Everyone scores in Detroit, lean Falcons.
LAC +1 at MIN – Great DFS game, but I have no idea here. Pass for me. This is a great teaser game to take the dog up over seven points.
IND +8 at BAL – If Anthony Richardson was here, I would have had interest in the Colts. I am passing here. The Ravens normally crush bad teams, and I am sure they score a ton here. Pass for me.
NE -2.5 at NYJ – I hate taking road favorites; however, the Pats own Zach Wilson and the Jets. I can not believe I am leaning toward taking Mac Jones on the road giving points. Ugh. I lean Patriots for now.
TEN +3.5 at CLE – It feels like everyone was on the Titans the last two weeks as small dogs where they went 2-0 ATS. In general, this looks like an awful Cleveland spot. Short week, no Chubb, against a solid run defense of the Titans. Deshaun Watson has been awful, but if you take Cleveland here you are basically betting on their defense. I am not so sure that the Titans will score more than 10 points. I lean Cleveland, but I hate the spot. Some weeks finding five games is pretty difficult.
NO +1.5 at GB – Last week professionals were on the Bears in Tampa, and I went the complete opposite direction. This week professionals are on the Saints and again, I am going the opposite direction. What am I missing here? The Saints are traveling on short rest with their no.3 and no.4 running backs only available. One of those RB’s will be making their NFL and more important pass protection debut. I am sure that will not affect Derek Carr at all. The Packers are trending toward being healthy and playing their home opener. Jordan Love is good, but this will be his first defensive test. We know the Saints are not grate but play a weak schedule. I am on the Packers. I think they are legit good and will score. I do not see the Saints matching on the road. Packers -1.5.
CAR +5.5 at SEA – I hate this game. I am not lining up to bet against Andy Dalton, but this is a short week for Carolina and they are traveling cross-country without their QB. The Panthers have no weapons, but this feels like a good number. I lean Seattle, but it feels too easy.
DAL -12.5 at ARZ – I am not laying this many points on the road, ever. Pass.
CHI +12.5 at KC – I hate laying big numbers period. I need to see it from KC, but we know Mahomes and the Chiefs rarely cover when they give more than seven points. Pass.
PIT +2.5 at LVR – I know what I want to do. I need to stay away. Pass.
PHI -5 at TB – Look, I have been on the Bucs both of the first two weeks. Guess what, I am ready to do it again. The Bucs defense is good. I keep saying it. The Eagles have some injuries, especially on defense. The ten-day-rest period for the Eagles concerns me, but I think TB and Baker Mayfield score enough to stay competitive in this game. The Eagles offense needs to work some kinks out, which they will eventually. I hope that occurs after Monday night. Bucs +5.
LAR +2.5 at CIN – I tried with the Bengals last week. Nope, I am out. If Joe B is out and we know I think you can fire up the Rams in contests, where this line is stagnant. Pass for now.
So here we are on Friday evening with three games I have bet and am ready to lock in contests.
TB +5
WAS +6.5
GB -1.5
Stay tuned as I work to find two more games! I will update and post on Twitter/X what I end up doing.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Week 2 Buffalo (WIN)
Week 3 Kansas City
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
DEN +6.5
CAR +6
Regular Plays
TEN +3.5
ATL +3
NO +2
LAC +1
NYJ +2.5
BUF -6.5
HOU +8.5
IND +8
CHI +12.5
ARZ +12.5
PIT +2.5
PHI -5
CIN -3
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Draft Kings
NFL
TB +5
WAS +6.5
GB -1.5
College Football
Let’s Get Weird
7 Team 6 Point Teaser +1000
BAL -2.5/WAS +12.5/LAC +7/ATL +9/SEA +0.5/PIT +8.5/TB +10.5
Yes, I know I am taking Seattle through zero, which loses value. However, this is for fun and using some bonus bets I have over on BET MGM. You should only be using Teasers to cross key number, aka a team getting +2 should be moved to +8. If we get this to Monday with TB left, then we can fire on Philly ML to maybe middle the game and make more money. Remember always use bonus or free bets on items where you are taking larger chances.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-12 62.5%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 5-1 83.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-1 85.71%
Our Plays
Overall 6-3 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100
Win The Weekends 