Finally, we are back to normal. The NFL and the rhythm of the seasons is how I judge the passage of time. My kids are older. Everyone is back to school. The Steelers open up at home on Sunday and I will be in attendance. This will be year 35 for my father and I to attend Steeler games. I have plenty of thoughts on this and how I feel about it all. There will be more time to discuss my Steeler’s season tickets and attending games, instead, let’s get to week one.
My goal is two-fold every week. First, I need five games for my contest’s selections. Second, I am always looking for games to bet and avoid. You should not be trying to bet a game or find a reason to bet a game. I do the opposite and I am trying to find a reason to not bet a game.
Pittsburgh +2.5 vs. SF. Is there a doubt? The Niners secondary is awful, and the Steelers seem primed to actually attack vertically. The Niners struggle to play from behind and I expect points in this game. The right side of the Niners offensive line is not great and guess where TJ Watt lines up? I bet Steelers months ago at +3. I bet them at +2.5. I bet the money line. I will have the Steelers in my five picks in contests. I am also stacking Kenny and the WR’s. This should be fun.
HOU +9 at Baltimore. Pass. If I am playing this game, it is on Baltimore. The Ravens always start strong and put-up points. I have Ravens in Survivor along with Washington. I get pretty shy when the spread gets above a touchdown. I am out.
TB +5.5 at Minnesota. The Vikings secondary is awful, and their games have been higher scoring than people realize, especially last year. I am going to stack Baker/Godwin/Evans this week and think the Bucs put up points. Our computer model thinks this spread should be under three points. Remember that Minnesota graded horribly in most models last year. Brady was not good last season so Baker can be average and make this work. I bet the Bucs +5.5 and will be using TB in contests.
JAX -4.5 at INDY. Pass. I am not laying points on the road in division, nor am I backing a rookie QB in this spot. Pass.
CIN -2 at CLE. The Bengals have started slowfor the last few years Joey B has been out with an injury. Cleveland has all this hype, but their defense is good. Denzel Ward playing is important for the Browns defense, and he did clear concussion protocol. The Browns will run it down the throat of the Bengals and the Browns get a surprising week one win. Home dogs is a solid theme to follow. I am on Cle +2 and Cle +2.5 in contests.
ARZ +7 at WAS. Nope. I am not laying a touchdown with the Commanders. If anything, I would take the points here. If this gets above seven, I am intrigued. Pass for now.
TEN +3 at NO. I have zero feel for this game. I know the Saints are a trendy team to win their conference and will be favored in a majority of their games. Pass for me.
CAR +3.5 at ATL. I hate this game too. Feels like Atlanta is the correct side, and the Panthers are going to be bad. I am taking a wait and see approach for both these teams.
PHI -4 at NE. This feels like a trap. I am not laying points on the road here. The Eagles should do very well here and score, but the Patriots defense is allegedly going to be good. I am out for this week.
MIA +3 at LAC. I know Tua was awful out here week one and the Dolphins have some injury concerns. Yet, I am still leaning toward Miami. When they were healthy, aka Tua played, Miami was very good. I am leaning Miami, but nothing as of yet.
LAR +5 at SEA. This line is weird, but I have warmed to Seattle this week. Kenneth Walker may be hurt and could sit, but Seattle is primed for a big year, while the Rams feel ready for a hard reset. The Rams have so few weapons, this could be a blowout if Seattle gets up early. Lean Seattle.
GB +1 at Chi. I was going to be all in on the Packers in week one, but the WR injuries have me concerned. I will revisit this one, after we have more news.
LVR +3.5 at DEN. Nope. I would take the points or pass. I was out on Denver before the season started last year and I remain skeptical. I thought Russ was bad for years so I need to see it first.
DAL -3.5 at NYG. Home divisional dog has my interest. I have the Giants on my short list.
BUF -2.5 at NYJ. Home divisional dog has my interest. I have the Jets on my short list.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor
Week 1 Baltimore
Computer Model Plays
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MIA +3
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TB +5.5
SF -2.5
GB +1
LV +3.5
BUF -2
Regular Plays
CAR +3.5
CIN -2.5
JAX -4.5
TEN +3
ARZ +7
HOU +10
PHI -4
DAL -3
LAR +3.5
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PIT +2.5
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TB +5.5
CLE +2
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