We are now well past the half way point of the season and Thanksgiving is upon us. I have usually used my bye weeks on Thanksgiving, because everything is just a little off. I like routine and consistency. Those things did not help me last week as I went 1-4 for my first losing week of the season. Nevertheless, we are still doing very well in contests and need to right the ship this week. I do feel much better this week about games than last week.
The Bears are apparently a public team now after their offense has exploded. The issue is they cannot defend anyone. Perhaps trading your best two defenders from an already struggling defense is bad. Atlanta gets a chance to bounce back and do exactly what they want and run it a ton. The Bears run defense is awful. I have the Falcons -3 on my short list.
I was ready to take the Browns in the snow in Buffalo. Oops, we are headed to Detroit. Buffalo gets to play two games in Detroit in four days now. Weird quirk. I lean Buffalo because the Browns pass defense has been awful and they got almost no pressure last week. Pass on this game.
The Eagles coming off a loss are laying a touchdown on the road. I am never laying a touchdown on the road. Pass on this game.
Baltimore coming off a bye week gets a bad team at home. This used to be the spot the Ravens crushed, but it has not exactly been there this year. I hate laying big numbers this year especially. Pass for me.
Washington won a huge game on Monday night and now have to travel to play Houston. Bad QB on the road, short week, and they are favored? I am taking the Texans +3.5. Davis Mills has been much better at home as well. I like this all the way to Houston +3. After that, I would stay away.
The Lions on the road outdoors again? I lean Giants because the Lions run defense is god-awful. I am passing for now, but Giants sneakily on my short list.
I want to take the Patriots here, because it is Zach Wilson in New England. Yet, I have reservations with the Patriots quarterback situation as well. Pats on the short list, but passing for now.
This line is all over the place. The Rams are bad and so are the Saints. I hate this game, passing.
Speaking of bad games. I never get the Raiders right. Russ may be cooked. Pass.
A home dog which will finally have their entire defense back healthy coming off a nice win against a team that has struggled to pass block and missing their best offensive weapon. I think you know, but I am all over the Steelers +4.
Minnesota had the following things go right for them just in the fourth quarter and overtime: Buffalo failed on 4th and two when up 10 points. Justin Jefferson caught a miraculous 4th and 18 conversion. Josh Allen dropped a snap resulting in a TD. Josh Allen threw an unforced pick to end the game. If any of those go the way of Buffalo, this line is Dallas -3. Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Vikings as their pass rush can cause problems. Cooper Rush won in Minnesota last year. I am on Dallas -1.5.
A home dog is getting their two best receivers back, while the other team is losing two of their key receivers. A loss here and it is officially, “it is getting late early” time for the Chargers. The Chiefs have been dying to blow a game recently, but neither the Titans, nor the Jags could take it. I am on the Chargers +5.5. This changes if both or one of Allen and Williams are not coming back.
I want to take the home dog Cardinals getting over a touchdown, but the game is actually in Mexico City. I am passing here, but I do lean Cardinals.
Here we are with four games we like right now. Finding the fifth is always difficult.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Are most people out of survivor. Sure, but I have one entry alive in a contest that is down to eight people. Therefore, I will continue to give this out!
Week 11 Buffalo
Week 10 Kansas City (WIN)
Week 9 Philly (WIN)
Week 8 Dallas (WIN)
Week 7 New England (Lose)
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
Premium
PHI -7
Regular
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
BUF -7.5
NYJ +3.5
LAR +4.5
NYG -3
CAR +13
HOU +3
LVR -3
DAL -1.5
CIN -4
LAC +5.5
ARZ +8
NFL Odds Boosts.
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College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
HOU +3.5
DAL -1.5
PITT +4
LAC +5.5
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 69-78 46.93%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 17-20 45.94%
Recommended Plays 20-24 (Platinum + Premium) 45.45%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-15 68.75%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 35-17 67.30%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 0-5 -500
Win The Weekends 