Week four is here and hopefully we can continue our strong start. If you have been following all week, you know we are already on the Texans +5.5. I am a little lite on bets and things I have locked in right now, I suppose that is a product of the injuries we have in plenty of games this weekend. I will update Saturday or for sure Sunday morning.
This is a great spot for the Steelers as the Jets are turning back to Zach Wilson. Wilson is a wildcard, but the Jets offensive line is decimated. I should be on the Steelers here as it feels like the correct side. Yet, I said it last week. I am not putting any money on the Steelers until Mitch is on the bench. This Sunday I will be tested, as I want to bet Pittsburgh. For now, I am passing.
Over in London, it appears to be Andy Dalton leading the Saints without Michael Thomas. It feels almost too easy to be on the Vikings in this game at -3. Still, I am hesitant as it is Kirk Cousin on National TV and we know how that has gone. I have a strong lean to Minnesota and it may end up in my contests because the line is 2.5. As of now, no wagers.
The computer loves the Jags. LOVES THEM. I know they have a shutout and have been impressive, but so have the Eagles. It seems like the Jags are the correct side, but it is a unique spot coming off a blowout win for both teams. I lean JAX, but nothing at this time.
The Browns feel like the Admiral Akbar spot of the week laying only a single point in Atlanta. The Falcons are at a rest disadvantage coming back from the West Coast late on Sunday after beating Seattle, while the Browns beat the Steelers last Thursday. So, why is this line so small? It seems the Browns will be without both their pass rushing DE’s which is a problem. The Falcons have not really stopped anyone this year, go look at Geno Smith’s numbers last weekend. Maybe the over is the way to go here. The number looks too good to be true on the browns side, pass for me.
I know some sharp money has come in on the Commanders, but after last week, I cannot do it. Dallas has been great defensively and they will get pressure. I kind of like Dallas based upon seeing Carson Wentz take sack after sack last week, now they have to try and keep Micah Parsons out of the backfield. Good luck. Pass for now, but leaning Dallas.
Professional money has been all over Seattle this entire week dropping this number in the area of six points all the way down to 3.5. I am sure the Lions injury situation is playing a large part of this movement later in the week. I am all about taking dogs and this might be a great contest spot. If this number closes at three, you can get 4.5 in plenty of picks contests. I am passing for now in terms of wagers.
Neither the Titans nor the Colts are any good. Both having aging QB’s that will be replaced next year if not sooner. Slight lean on the Titans because the spread is larger than three points and it is a divisional game. I hate both these teams.
The Bears and Giants feels like the game with the least amount of pass attempts. At 3.5 I like the Bears because the Giants should not give more than three to anyone. Talk about a blah game. If it were not for fantasy and gambling, no one would care about this game despite both teams being 2-1. I also hate this game.
Buffalo is coming off a loss and now road favorites in Baltimore. This is the spot that the Ravens normally win unexpectedly; still I am not into it. The Ravens secondary made Mac Jones look fantastic last week. I wonder what the Bills look like against them. I am close to jumping on the Ravens, but seem to be very hesitant. I will pause on this one as I may come back to it Sunday morning.
I hate the Cardinals, as we all know. The Panthers are terrible as well. I like the Cardinals some this weekend, but I feel lukewarm. Some weekends it is hard to find five games for contests, or bets that we like. That is more than fine, less volume is not a problem for me some weeks.
I will be using the Packers in survivor. Laying the points is another issue. This game also sucks.
It feels like everyone us on the Broncos this week getting points from the winless Raiders. This is legitimately necessary win spot for the Raiders. Everyone thinks the Broncos are bad now, but the Raiders has clearly struggled as the only team that is 0-3. I like the Raiders some in this situation, but not feeling phenomenal about it, sensing a trend this week. Pass for now.
The public is all over the Chiefs this weekend. No one likes the Bucs. I am happily interested in the Bucs at home. Tom Brady is going to get some weapons back and the Kansas City offense has not been great. The Bucs are in consideration for me.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Week 4 Green BayWeek 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
JAX +6.5
Premium
MIA +4
CLE -1.5
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
HOU +5
DEN +2.5
Regular
MIN -2.5
DAL -3
DET -4.5
PIT -3.5
BUF -3
CAR -1.5
NE +9.5
TB +2
SF -2.5
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CFB
NFL
Houston +5.5
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
Win The Weekends 