NFL Week Four Line Moves and Early Wagers

We are on to week four. I figured it might be beneficial to mention some line moves and where things may be headed. Yesterday I talked about Houston getting six points at home against the beat up Chargers. That number is now gone, it is now Texans +5.5. I mentioned betting things earlier in the week this year since Covid times are now over. This is one of those spots. I am on Houston +5.5. It is always important to shop around as Fan Duel has the 5.5 and over on Draft Kings it is only 4.5.

In terms of other line moves from Sunday, the Lions have fallen from a six-point favorite to 5.5 points. It makes sense from a value standpoint. The Lions were favored two weeks ago for the first time I what two years and now they are laying almost a touchdown. It certainly feels like they should not be giving that many points to anyway, yet they did hold two separate double-digit leads in Minnesota Sunday before losing.

It is going to be very hard for me to not be on the Ravens getting +3.5 at home. I know Buffalo came off a bad loss and should rebound, but those secondary injuries for the Bills still exist. My only hesitation is they also remain for the Ravens. Mac Jones threw for a ton of yards, but did turn it over.

The Jags remain undervalued as they find themselves as just under a touchdown dogs in Philly. Philly has become a very public team that is now 2-1 ATS with the one being when they blew a 17-point lead and just missed covering.

I discussed Monday that the Packers would be the easy and obvious survivor play. The Packers have been bet up to around -11 in most spots. Brian Hoyer on the road in Green Bay without any real weapons. Man, that Packers defense should feast.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular

NFL Odds Boosts
No Sweat SGP (FD) $10 Max and must be +400 or longer odds.

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College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
Houston +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300