Sunday Morning Update
Clearly, I switched my survivor play. I am breaking my no road team rules and going with the Bengals.
In terms if my bets and contest, I have made my choices.
Contests
CIN -4.5
MIA +5.5
WAS +6.5
IND +6.5
JAX +7.5
The Jags are not exactly a free square, but if/when Herbert is ruled out this line will drop even more. If he plays I am more than fine with a team getting this many points against a banged up quarterback.
My Bets
I had Miami from the other day, I have added the Colts at +5.5 and WAS +6.5. Give me all the home dogs!
There you have it, three sides, my contest plays and of course the Bengals in survivor. I also tweeted my to score a TD parlay, since DK is giving everyone a boost, but my max is so small that they allow on those.
I warned you all about the Steelers. I am wagering zero dollars on them until Kenny Pickett is the new starting QB. All of them complaints about the defense fading late against the run fail to address that the offense is awful. Of course, your defense is tired when it is on the field the entire game. Is that an exaggeration? The time of possession stats, exist and prove it is true. I could go on and on about the Steelers offense, but simply put without TJ Watt, the defense is average. I know, it is shocking. It is like finding out the Warriors are not as good without Steph Curry. I mean who knew. Anyway, on to the weekend.
I am 7-3 in my picks contests and looking to keep headed in the correct direction. There are some clear traps out there. The following are road favorites that seem like public plays: Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals. You can push back that no public bettor is going to be on the Bengals, which is fair. The public likes to come back to teams who pay them off, like the Bills. One of these teams is going to lose for sure. The one game that should send up some red flags for sure is the Ravens. All the tickets are on Baltimore, the bet percentages are out of whack as well, yet, the line persists. The books have chosen a side as they often do. The books do not want even action, they are happy to take a side. Here, they are on the Pats. I do not base all my decisions on public/professional money, but it is something else to monitor and consider when making wagers.
The first game of the late this week is the Raiders giving points in Tennessee. I have no clue here. The Raiders are better, the Titans seem to be tanking, yet, and this line is bizarre. Pass.
The Bengal’s have to win Sunday. The Jets got a fluky win last week, but do not have the pass rush like the Steelers and Cowboys. I think the Bengals get healthy. I am firing up a Joey B stack and may include the Bengals in my final five in picks contest. This number is now six, which only 4.5 in plenty on contests.
The Bills coming off a Monday night win are playing in Miami. While it is not full proof either, both teams from week one Monday night football lost against the spread in week two. Rest advantage is real people. I am more than happy to be on the home dog Dolphins here. The Bills may be missing 2-3 starters in the defensive backfield. Miami has two wide receivers you may have heard of. I am on the Dolphins +5.5.
Everyone is ready to crown the Eagles as the best team in the NFC, but here we go with another road divisional game after a Monday night game. Just like the Bills and Dolphins, we have a home dog in the same spot. I know the Commanders looked horrid last week, but I do like this spot. I have Washington +6.5 on my short list. The Eagles secondary looked fantastic last week, but there were options and dropped passes by the Vikings.
I want to take Matt Ryan and the points. I am worry he might be pure dust at this point. I need some more injury information here, but man the home dog Colts look enticing. Notice how the Chiefs have received a ton of tickets on them this week, yet the line keeps falling slowly. We are down to +5.5 after a point drop in the line. The Colts are on my short list.
The Bears are favored and both teams are terrible. I do like D Montgomery Burns in DFS. Excellent. This game is awful. Pass.
I have no idea on the Saints and Panthers here. The Panthers are on the path to fire their coach and rebuild, again. The Saints if healthy seem like the correct side, but laying points on the road with Jameis is not something I am interested in.
The World is on the Ravens. The Ravens secondary is inured and struggled against the Dolphins. We know the books are taking a side here and happy to do so. The Pats are on my short list.
The Vikings defense has been awful and scheme is questionable at best. The Lions offense has been fantastic. This game has a large total at 52.5 points and I am all about the Kirk Cousins stack this week. I am passing on this game after having some initial interest in the Vikings -5.5.
Justin Herbert appears on the path to play and rebound from their loss against the Chiefs. The Jags are not terrible and think they keep this game close. I have the Jags on my short list at +7. I also have the Chargers penciled in for my survivor pick. This week is insanely ugly. The Vikings and Chargers are your best options. I want to pull the trigger on the Bengal’s but I find myself hesitating.
Green Bay and Tampa Bay is also very ugly. The total is insanely low as neither team has any weapons to assists their aging quarterbacks. I kind of like the Bucs, but no strong lean. Pass.
The Cardinals went from dead to winning in a half, but find themselves as home dogs for the second time in three weeks. I refuse to take this Rams offense laying points on the road. I refuse to take Kliff unless I have to. Pass on this game. I am here for more Greg Dortch though.
The Falcons are feisty and get to play the worst team in the NFL in Seattle. Atlanta can score, while the Seahawks struggle. I want to be on the Falcons here, but it is still a dome team traveling outdoors as a small dog.
Everyone is ready to light the Broncos coaching staff on fire for their mistakes. They have been bad, but all the sudden there is now zero faith in Denver. The Niners love has gone insane, last week no one liked them, but we did. I get to take the Broncos as a home dog this week. The value is there for Denver. I have the Broncos on my short list.
After all that I have bet one game this week to this point in the Dolphins +5.5. I will update and add my plays as I make them and of course tweet out my plays in my contests.
I wanted to add a little DFS section as I used to discuss on the Numberball Rundown show the last two years.
Stacks I like
Cousins/JJ/Irv/Amon RA
Joe B/Chase/Higgins/Carter or Wilson
Hurts/AJB/Samuel
Allen/Diggs/X/Waddle
Tua/Hill/Waddle/Diggs
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Week 3 Cincinnati
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
None
Premium
NE +2.5
CIN -4.5
BUF -5.5
IND +6.5
SEA -1
Regular
PIT +4.5
TEN +2.5
WAS +6.5
CHI -2.5
NO -2.5
MIN -5.5
LAC -7
GB +1
ARZ +3.5
DEN +1.5
NFL Odds Boosts
Risk Free SGP (DK)
College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
MIA +5.5
If like me you have some free bets, or want to fire on these home dogs, here is a fun 6-point teaser I am going to play.
NE +8.5
MIA +11.5
IND +11.5
WAS +12.5
DEN +7.5
Pays +333
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 13-18 41.93%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 10-5 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200
Win The Weekends 