Every week seems to get weirder and weirder. Be careful betting any road favorite. Be careful giving any more than three points as well. Is any lead safe? I ended up going 3-2 and it should have been better. How the Browns -5.5 did not win and cover is baffling. Nick Chubb could have fallen down. The defense could have not been torched by Joe Flacco. Cleveland could have recovered the on-side kick. Pain. I should be 8-2 instead of 7-3 on the season. The computer model bounced back as well for a decent day. No matter what, we are on to next week.
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Tonight we have two games on the docket. One seems like a fantastically fun game of NFC teams that could easily make the NFC title game. The other game feels like a Buffalo romp. If you think about the league entirely right now, outside of Buffalo do you really trust anyone? Maybe, the Chiefs, but after that oh, man it is pretty wild and inconsistent out there. If you do not believe me, go look at survivor pools. I think most are down to only 25-35% of the starting field remaining. Week 2 is not even finished! Of course, we are 2-0 and happily advancing.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
None
Premium
Regular
TEN +10
PHI -2
NFL Odds Boosts
50% SGP+ Boost (DK)
If the book was not winning enough on these, you can combine games to make it even better for the books.
AJ Brown to score +175 (FD)
This is boosted from +120. I mean he certainly had the target share that this could pay off. I am in here. I think Philly plays well and continues to score. The opportunity will be there and AJB will have a chance. I am in.
JJ to score a TD and Vikings to win +280 (FD)
This should pay +218. This is a boost and if you like either side of this, game I think both of these boosts make sense. Jefferson is -110 to score tonight, which is wild for a wide receiver. There is no mathematical reason to skip these boosts.
JJ and AJB to each have 100+ receiving yards +475 (FOX)
JJ’s prop is set to 96.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
AJB’s prop is set to 74.5.
This parlay over on FD pays, +480. This is an easy pass then. A better price exists somewhere else without be labeled a boost. This is why we check and shop around. Pass.
College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
PHI -2.5
This is a great spot for the Eagles. The Vikings are coming off a big win against a rival, but some advanced numbers suggest that the Vikings did not play as well as it would appear. The Eagles had a massive lead and blew it late against the Lions. This line should be three and the computer model agrees. I like the Eagles here to score a lot and take advantage of their solid offensive line.
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 12-17 41.37%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%
2022 Our Plays
NFL Overall 7-3 70%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200
College Football Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 9-5 64.28
Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200
Win The Weekends 