College football is a lot of fun, but there is nothing like the NFL. I realize some people prefer college, but not me. In College, a majority of the games mean nothing. Seriously, what like 90% of teams are eliminated from making the playoffs before playing a game? It appears they are fixing that in the future, but it is the NFL’s time to dominate.
This is a weird week as we have ten, yes TEN road favorites. My god. If you told me this five years ago I would have blindly just bet all the home dogs. Now, it is a little different. Home field advantages has shifted over the last few years. While there is still lots of value in home dogs, they have become even uglier than they were before. Yet, the lines keep shifting. Houston has gone from +8.5 to +7. The Eagles have dropped to -3.5. The Chiefs have risen to almost a universal -6 across the board. Week one is always very odd because these are actually very stale lines. In a normal NFL week, these lines are relatively fresh and the market corrects them. Most of these numbers have been around since July and have already seen plenty of movement. I have only bet one thing for week one and I did it last week. I took the Texans +8.5. Now, that number is gone.
I mentioned a few weeks ago about betting early in the week, as I used to prior to Covid. I am going to do more of that. While it might not always guarantee you have a winner, getting some closing line value in the end will only help your situation. Last week I had Boston College -7 in college. BC ended up losing outright when they were up five and threw a pick at the Rutgers 30-yard-line late in the 4th quarter. While losing is not ideal, the game closed at BC -9. College is not the NFL, but continually putting yourself in positions of value like that is something we strive to accomplish.
Tomorrow I will post all the computer model plays, boosts and wagers I have made to this point. Sunday morning I will post my five selections in the Draft Kings contest with $250K up top. One game has a vastly different line than the current number. That tends to be the case in these contests when the numbers lock when they are posted. As always, we are using the Circa Super Contest numbers for the computer model.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Future Wagers
Steelers over 7.5 wins +110
I know it is now -105. I bet this weeks ago. I am such a homer. However, the Steelers do not finish under .500. An 8-9 record is enough to cash here. If Mitch is bad, Kenny is going to take over and be good. I am slightly biased when it comes to the Steelers, Pitt and Kenny Pickett. This is the perfect storm.
Computer Model
Platinum
None
Premium
Regular
LAR +2.5
NFL Odds Boosts
Josh Allen to have a completion +100 (DK)
$25 max bet. I have been told this exists. I do not have access to it, but some people may. This is obviously free money. Get up by 7 and Win (DK)This is for the Thursday night game. Max Wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.
Get up by 10 and win (DK)
This is for all of the other games. Max wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.
Risk Free SGP TNF (DK)
Max bet $10
No sweat bet (FD)
$25 Max bet, refunded as free bets.
Kupp/Diggs/Robinson to all have 50+ receiving yards (FD)
So, this is posted, but currently locked on FD. I have no idea why. It should pay +138, so any boost needs to be much higher than that. Diggs prop number seems oddly low at 65.5 yards.
PHI/SF/NO to all win +200 (Fox)
This should pay +187, so it is a boost. Would you like to parlay three road favorites in the NFL? Good luck with that.
College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
While I do not like the game tonight particularly, we have to fire something right. How about a giant teaser that crosses key numbers all around?
6 Point Teaser paying +700
LAR +8.5
BAL -.5
JAX +8.5
NYG +11.5
ARZ +11.5
MIN +7.5
DAL +8.5
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall
NFL Props
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 2-2 50%
Odds Boosts
Teasers and Parlays
Win The Weekends 