Is it over? Are the Covid seasons over? Can we finally start to fully adjust to normalcy? It is not a coincidence that our model has two years that were slightly different from the rest during Covid. Look, I am not blaming Covid for results, I am just happy to be back to normal. This feels like when the NBA went from the bubble, to limited to fans, to fully back over the last two years. Adjustments must be made and we are here to make them. As always, our goal is to make money and help anyone who reads become a better sports bettor. It does not matter if you bet $5 or $500 a game; you can always keep learning and improving.
While our past NFL results have been solid, the NFL is back in one week, but we do have some college football to take look at for this weekend.
Last year at this time, I gave you Pitt to win their half of the ACC at 10/1. I should have aimed higher it appears. I also had some Kenny Pickett to win the Heisman at like 80/1, but he did make the finals. Just like betting on golf, it does not matter if your person finishes second or last it pays the same. Yet, it is nice to have some closing line value (CLV). Part of what I do is strive for some CLV in the NFL. If you are not betting NFL games on Sunday night right as the lines are posted you are not always getting the best of the number. I Slowed down the amount of early week bets I made during Covid for obvious reasons, but I feel it is time to ramp back up. I know certain podcasts try to guess the lines of next week’s games, but in reality, you should be doing the same every week. In order to know what games to bet on Sunday night of Monday morning you have to be well versed in what you feel the line should be. I realize it helps to have a model to do that as we do here. You will see me tweet out wagers and numbers I find interesting Sunday night and early Monday morning.
I also wanted to mention that last year Draft Kings had a $1500 against the spread contest, but this year dropped the entry fee to $250. I hope this brings in more casual players as I will again be entering. Just like last year close to 1 PM every Sunday, I will post my plays, but if you are reading during the week, you should have a good idea of what I am going to do.
Future Wagers
Steelers over 7.5 wins +110
I know it is now -105. I bet this weeks ago. I am such a homer. However, the Steelers do not finish under .500. An 8-9 record is enough to cash here. If Mitch is bad, Kenny is going to take over and be good. I am slightly biased when it comes to the Steelers, Pitt and Kenny Pickett. This is the perfect storm.
College Football Odds Boots
No Sweat Bet Fan Duel
If you opt in and bet on college football you get your bet refunded… up to $25. Just pick a $25 parlay and try to win a ton of money since you are getting a free bet as a refund.
Bet $10 on MLB Parlays or SGP’s and get a 25% Profit Boost for CFB Draft Kings
This is oddly convoluted. I think the times of great boosts and bonuses are over for these major sites.
CFB
Pitt -7.5
I think Pitt is going to be very good, provided Kedon Slovis is at least a C+ at quarterback. Pitt has multiple defensive players that are going to be drafted and both lines are fantastic. Yes, losing a future first round pick at wide receiver and a quarterback that was drafted in the first round is tough to recover from, but this is the best Pitt team since 2016. This is my biased take of course but I like the Panthers against a fading West Virginia program.
Tennessee -35
When Hooker finally took over at QB, the Tennessee offense exploded. The only times Tennessee struggled was against Alabama and Georgia. I feel confident saying Ball State is not on that level. This game will feature lots of points.
Tennessee/Ball State over 66
Speaking of lots of points, this game has 56-14 or something like that written all over it. The Volunteers scored 56+ three times last year and 40+ seven times.
Computer Model
2015-2021
Overall 935-818 53.37%
Premium 206-175 54.06%
Platinum 36-39 48%
Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
2021 138-146 48.59%
Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
2021 28-29 49.12%
Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57 %
2021 5-9 35.71%
2021 NFL Computer Model
Overall 138-146 48.59%
Playoffs 7-6 53.84%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%
2021 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-28 54.09%
Playoffs 7-7 50%
NFL Props 13-8 +1285
NFL Odds Boosts 23-51 -1165
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 41-30 57.74%
Odds Boosts 23-50 -965
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521
Win The Weekends 