We are into the home stretch of the NBA. I am going to breakdown motivations as I have mentioned before. There are so many people that are resting, hurt, or just not trying to win at the moment.
All the books have almost given up on NBA boosts. It feels odd considering how compelling the last few weeks should be. Hopefully they start to pick up for the playoffs and the Masters.
I decided to look back at some futures I have as we are headed to the NBA. I recently gave out Memphis 24/1 on DK, which I have. I think we get some free bets for every win they have as the season ends. I cannot recall exactly what the deal was, but I added them. My entire futures wagers look like:
Sixers 24/1 and 14/1
Grizz 25/1
Nuggets 38/1
Clippers 65/1
I made one of the Sixers wagers early this year, but the others right before they traded for Harden. Denver was from right around when Michael Porter JR got hurt. I am adding the Clippers as well. I said it on Twitter last night, but Fan Duel having this number while every other book has 40/1 seems very odd. I keep coming back to, why would Paul George come back for only two weeks. Unless, he may have some added help. No one knows what is up with Kawhi Leonard. He may come back soon he may disappear until October. I can either hedge or get out of all of these to not take a loss if/when these teams face an elimination game.
We have a massive 11 game slate tonight. Here is the game-by-game breakdown!
Dallas at Cleveland +2.5
This is a back-to-back for Dallas, sort of. The Mavs barely had to play last night and Luka crushed in limited minutes. Cleveland is now missing Evan Mobley as well tonight. Both teams are trying to win.
Orlando at Washington -3.5
This is a back-to-back for the Wizards. Both teams are not actively trying to win. The Zinger has been playing consecutive nights. Wendell Carter is out for the Magic. This is two teams trying to improve their lottery chances, but the Wizards have been playing decently.
Denver at Indiana +10
The Nuggets keep playing and the Pacers are trying to lose. I expect the Pacers to randomly rule people out as the day goes on. Four straight losses for the Pacers three by double-digits. I have a little interest in Denver, or in a money line parlay.
Charlotte at New York +3
The Knicks beat the Bulls in their last game and the Hornets are fighting for play-in positioning. The Hornets have been good, but did lose to the Knicks just a week ago. This feels like a trap with the Knicks being a small home dog. Pass for me.
Miami at Boston -5.5
We get to see how Boston’s defense looks like without the Time Lord. The winner of this game will move into the top spot in the Eastern Conference. I kind of like the Celtics. Miami has struggled to score at times and I believe in Celtics defense, despite injury.
Minnesota at Toronto -3
Minnesota continues to improve and Toronto may actually be fully healthy. This feels like a fair line of two teams still playing and in similar positions for seeding in their respective conferences.
Sacramento at Houston +2.5
Houston is tanking and resting plenty of people already. The Kings are doing the same. This is going to be a great DFS game.
Atlanta at OKC +12.5
Atlanta is not good, but OKC is really tanking. I demand we have Poku and Chet on the same team next year. Atlanta needs to keep winning to maybe get out of the 9-10 seed. This is a good money line parlay spot.
Memphis at San Antonio +5
The Spurs are playing to eliminate the Lakers and stay in the playoff picture. Ja Morant is still out and this game has a large total. Memphis keeps winning without JA, but their occasional losses have occurred on the road.
Phoenix at Golden State +4.5
Curry is still out. The Suns just keep rolling. Both teams are almost locked into their spots.
New Orleans at Portland +13.5
The Blazers are horrible and want to keep losing. The Pelicans can keep winning and force the Lakers into the ten spot if they are lucky. Since Portland ruled out their actual team for the rest of the season, the Blazers are 2-14. Those wins are over two tankers in Detroit and Washington. This game has blowout written all over it.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Computer Model Plays
DEN -10
DAL -2.5
WAS -3.5
NYK +3
MIN +3
BOS -5.5
HOU +3
ATL -12
SAS +5
POR +14.5
PHO -5
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Booker to score 35+ points +320 (DK)
At least it is not a combined boost. Booker’s prop is set to 27.5. Booker is +290 to score 35+ on FD. I am passing. While this spread is smaller than expected I think the Warriors could be in trouble. Pass.
ORL/DAL/NYK to all win +750 (Fox)
They want you to put money on Orlando. This should pay +789. Pass.
Let’s Get Weird
NOP -14.5
The Pelicans need this game and the Blazers do not want to win it. This is a ton of points on the road, but here we are.
NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 40-49 44.94%
NCAA Tourney Record 7-8 46.66%
College Record 12-16 42.85%
Hoops Combined Record 52-65 44.44%
Hoops Parlay Record 8-21 +294
Hoops Odds Boosts 42-69 +836
Hoops Player Props 8-17 -835
NBA Model Premium Plays 31-43 41.89%
NBA Model 514-477 51.91%
Win The Weekends 