Long story short, I turned 40 this past week and had the flu. My wife had three of my best child hood friends surprise me and come to town. We ended up at the new Barstool Sportsbook and stayed up excessively late. Exhausted and tired, we had a lunch reservation to watch the early games Saturday. I wanted to cancel, but went along, despite not feeling all that well. I was shocked to find 50+ family and friends at a local sports bar were there for a surprise birthday party for me. It has been an amazingly fun weekend. I will be posting more on this later, but because of all the festivities, I could find time to post very much. It is a shame as I went 3-0 on Saturday, but since I did not post or tweet it, it will not count on my record.
Yet, we are back to normal tonight.
Portland is a dog in Detroit and continues to hopefully lose and improve their lottery chances. The Pistons are not tanking but playing their young core a ton. Grant is out again for the Pistons.
The Lakers are dogs in Cleveland and there is no chance I am betting the Lakers at any point in the next few weeks. The Lakers will be the nine or ten seed. What I am saying is they have very little to play for.
The Pelicans are in Charlotte catching six points. Both teams are still playing and trying to win.
The Heat are tiny favorites in Philly and this a back-to-back for the Sixers. The Sixers may try to avoid the top three and try to be the four seed in the East to avoid Brooklyn. The Heat lead the East by three full games. Jimmy Butler will play tonight for the Heat.
Utah is a small favorite in Brooklyn, which means no Kyrie. Some of the fringe and bench Jazz guys have already been ruled out. Both teams still competing, but Utah needs to get healthy.
Boston remains on fire and the Thunder are not playing for anything but the lottery. This feels like a great Boston Blowout spot, despite the large spread.
Wizards giving five in Houston in a fantastic DFS game, but not one for real basketball. Neither team is playing for anything. Eric Gordon is out for Houston. Yet, I like Houston getting five from a Washington team that is awful. After beating the Lakers, the Wizards previously has lost five in a row.
The feisty Raptors still do not have OG back, but he is close. The Bulls are getting Patrick Williams back tonight and he is a defensive force. The Bulls fell off, but with Williams returning and eventually Lonzo doing the same, they may be better, quickly. It will soon be time to adjust expectations for the Bulls.
Minnesota has moved into the top six in the West if they beat Dallas tonight, would be a half game out of the five seed. The Wolves got healthy and their combo and depth is working. Dallas has also been playing very well. This line feels very fair at Dallas -3.5.
NBA Computer Model Plays
DET -7
CLE -5
MIA -2
NOP +6
UTA -1.5
TOR +3.5
BOS -14.5
HOU +5
MIN +3.5
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden to make 4+ 3’s +400 (DK)
This is in a low-total game against the Miami Heat and a back-to-back. I want to pass before checking if this is a good boost. Since this is a back-to-back, there is no Sixer injury information available. I am passing, but if Embiid sits, I would revisit this.
LeBron and Garland to combine for 75+ points and assists +135 (DK)
More combined boosts for DK.
LeBron’s combo is set to 36.5.
Garland’s combo is set to 34.5.
If you were to parlay them to go over on both their assist and point prop it would pay +949. Oh, and they would only need a total 70 points and assists to make that happen. Pass on this boost.
CLE/UTA/CHI to all win +350 (FOX)
This should pay +331. Two of these teams are small favorites. Pass for me. I am scared of two small favorites on the road.
Let’s Get Weird
HOU +5
BOS -14.5
NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 39-46 45.88%
NCAA Tourney Record 5-7 41.66%
College Record 10-15 40%
Hoops Combined Record 49-61 44.54%
Hoops Parlay Record 8-20 +394
Hoops Odds Boosts 41-69 +786
Hoops Player Props 8-17 -835
NBA Model Premium Plays 30-43 41.09%
NBA Model 486-452 51.81%
Win The Weekends 