When Jaylen Brown got hurt a few minutes into the game, I assumed my Celtics and under wagers could be in trouble. I was very concerned the under was dead toward the end of the first half. Yet, the reason I liked Boston and the under was their defense. In the second half, they adjusted and it worked very well. The Hawks scored just 33 points in the second half. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hawks scored 37 points in the second quarter, but could not muster the offense to come anywhere close in the second half. It is worth monitoring how quickly the totals adjust to Boston defensive ascension.
Tonight we have two rematches from just a few days ago with the Pacers and Magic playing tonight as well as the Knicks and Sixers. Houston is on a back-to-back tonight and may they have struggled in any and all situations. Kyle Lowry remains out for Miami in their matchup with the Bucks.
I made a few golf wagers already for the API this weekend. I am on Higgo 200/1 and Max Homa at 45/1. Both of these can be found on Draft Kings sportsbook.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
CLE -3.5
IND -1
NYK +10.5
MIA +4.5
SAC +6
UTA -14
OKC +14.5
POR +13
*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Rory/Mitchell/Hideki to all make the cut +120 (FD)
Wait, this is an NBA post. Yet, we are starting to see some PGA boosts that will for sure keep arising until the Master in a month. This should pay around -140 or so. I like this. I think all three are live to win. I may be playing some of these in my DFS lineups this weekend as well. I am in.
Harden to record a triple-double +425 (DK)
This is +240 on FD.
We know the points are not an issue at all. Harden’s rebound prop is set to 7.5 and the over is slightly juiced. Harden’s assists prop is set to 11.5 and the under is juiced. Harden -290 to record 10+ assists. I am looking at this as Harden to record 10+ rebound at +425. This is boosted as it almost pays double than what it does on FD. I am in. I need the Knicks to stay close here so Harden has to close the game.
Giannis to record 50+ points/rebounds/assists +185 (DK)
Giannis’s combo is set to 46.5 and the under is slightly juiced. This is a combo number that Giannis has struggled to reach. Additionally, in the two times they played this season, Giannis has not been great against Miami. Pass for me.
DK has a Mystery Profit boost for an SGP. I got 25%. Boooo.
Sixers SGP boost 22% (DK)
Embiid double-double/Harden double-double/ Sixers -9.5
This goes from +150 to +183 on DK.
This boosted price is about where it should be. I mean, you do get a slight break on all the prices, but not enough I feel like I have to bet it. Pass for me.
ORL/PHI/SAC to all win +600 (Fox)
I am not wagering $1 on the Magic. This features a large dog in the Kings and it should pay +577. This is such a small boost, I am out.
NBA
UTA -14
Houston in winless on back-to-back this season and the closest they have been is losing by seven points back in December. It feels really weird to lay double-digits on the road in the NBA, but Utah has not played since Sunday.
Let’s Get Weird
UNC Ashville -10
They have beaten Charleston Southern by 19 and 23. This is an early afternoon start. After my wager yesterday was up 14 with the ball with a minute left and did not cover 10.5, I expect bad things with college hoops.
NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 37-38 49.33%
College Record 2-3 40%
Hoops Combined Record 39-41 48.75
Hoops Parlay Record 8-18 +594
Hoops Odds Boosts 39-60 +1476
Hoops Player Props 6-14 -735
NBA Model Premium Plays 30-40 42.85%
NBA Model 421-387 52.10%
Win The Weekends 