(I will update more throughout the day as the sites post them!)
This is it. We have one football game left. Lame. I hate having just one game. I much prefer a random week during the season with 16 games. Either way, we are here. So, how do I organize this? Do I tell you my bets by book? Do I tell you them by how the game will go? There are a lot of ways to overwhelm bettors for this game. There are so many wagers and they are all not that easy to find. Some wagers are not even available on all books. I will do my best to list every wager I have and will make. I will update this article throughout the weekend.
First, how does this game go? I believe it will start very slowly. I think both teams will have some nerves and the defenses will play well early. After the first quarter, I think the Rams defensive line will begin to dominate the game. The Titans had turned the ball over multiple times, sacked Joe Burrow nine times, played awfully, yet had the ball with three minutes left in plus territory to go and win the game. They failed. The Chiefs ran all over the Bengals, held a massive lead, yet, they also failed. In both cases, the Bengals were run on and Joe Burrow was pressured. In both games, in the final minutes the home team had a chance to go and win the game. (Insert Breaking Bad “He can’t keep getting away with this!” GIF)
At some point this is going to catch up with the Bengals. Their lack of pass blocking can be masked when a team does not have a great pass rush like the Chiefs. The Titans defensive line is solid and they dominated against the Bengals. The Rams defensive line is even better. What will the Bengals do to protect Joe Burrow? Will they keep in an extra blocker? Will they double Aaron Donald? Does any of that matter if the Rams can pressure with only four pass rushers? I think the Rams will get significant pressure with only four, dropping seven into coverage.
Last year at this time, I dismissed the Chiefs offensive line problems in the Super Bowl. I wrongly assumed Andy Reid would come up with a plan to get the ball to his playmakers and the Bucs defense would not dominate the beat-up Chiefs offensive line. I was wrong. Saying a game will flip because of a defensive line is not sexy. The Bengals are the hot team with offensive weapons people are excited about. The Bengals appear to be a very public dog. The public is not thinking about the Bengals offensive line and the issues the Rams will cause. If we assume the Rams get pressure with four, Jalen Ramsey will take away whatever wide receiver is on his side of the field, which should allow the other six defenders to bottle up the other Bengals skill players.
In the end this will be an ugly low scoring game, where the Rams defense dominates. I Think the first quarter is ugly and could end up with a 0-0 score. I believe the Rams will slowly grind their way to a victory. The Rams have been there before; they know the circus around the Super Bowl. The Rams are playing in their home stadium; their routine has not changed much at all. They will be comfortable in their surroundings and the odd nature of the Super Bowl. Sunday night the Rams will win and cover. I have bet the Rams -4 and Under 48.5 points.
Rams 24 Bengals 10
Now, it is time to capitalize on how I think the game will go. I will leave the odds boosts in the section where they are. These are the wagers I am making that are not boosts. I believe the first quarter will feature a lack of scoring, unless the Bengals turn it over early.
Before I mention all of my wagers, do not bet any skill position player for MVP. You are better off building an SGP where that player does well. You can use alternate lines as well to get there but it will pay more than a straight MVP wager.
MY Wagers
Points scored in first ten Minutes NO +300 (DK)
No score first 7 minutes +105 (DK)
No score first 5 minutes -190 (DK)
1st Touchdown on or after 10:00 Elapsed Yes -110 (DK)
1st score on or after 6:00 Elapsed Yes -135
Either Team score a TD on their first drive No -140 (DK)
Will there be a scoreless Quarter Yes +330 (FD)
0-0 First Quarter +1000 (FD)
Game tied after first quarter YES +400 (FD)
Burrow under 63.5 Passing Yards 1st Quarter -135
Rams over 3.5 Sacks +105 (DK)
Total Game sacks over 5.5 +110 (DK)
Leonard Floyd to record a sack +130 (DK)
Bengals Under 3.5 points 1st Quarter -160 (DK)
Under 9.5 1st Quarter -120 (DK)
Lowest Scoring Quarter 1st +160 (DK)
Bengals 1st drive result Punt -145 (FD)
Rams -6.5 +120 (DK)
Rams -4.5
Under 48.5
Opening kickoff to to be returned -120 (DK)
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
Regular Plays
LAR -4.5
I will update the odds boosts this weekend, when they are posted!
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$20 free SGP (FD)
I am playing the OBJ boost. Obviously I am on the rams so the Bengals boost is an easy pass. Obj’s prop is at 63.5.
Draft Kings
Kupp Anytime td +100 (-190)
Rams to score first +200
Get a refund up to $20 if your first score bet loses, but player scores a TD in game.
$10 free SGP (DK)
Rams SGP Boost
Rams win/Stafford 290+ Yards and OBJ to score a TD +600
This should pay like +450. I incorrectly, had this at +500. At this price I am a lot more interested. Stafford only needs to go over by seven yards. The entire thing is predicated on OBJ scoring really. I am in now!
Fox Bet
Burrow and Stafford to throw 1+ pick +300
I do not like any of the other boosts on Fox Bet. I wish I could bet the No, side.
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 138-145 48.76%
Playoffs 7-5 58.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 32-27 54.23%
Playoffs 6-6 50%
NFL Props 3-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 20-50 -1515
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 40-29 57.97%
Odds Boosts 23-50 -1215
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521
Win The Weekends 