The dark times are ahead. We only have three NFL games left in the season. I know, we have the NBA from now until June, but still. I will of course do some golf stuff. You might also seem some random stuff about shows I have watched and enjoyed. Why and what NFT’s I have purchased. (Fame Lady Squad!) In addition, who knows what else I end up writing about. Will NFL All Day ever have a market place? Who knows? Will I buy a pack every week with no idea of the value and if I can sell them? Also, yes. Until the dark times we still have two games this weekend!
KC -7/-7.5 vs. CIN
I listed both spreads because they are both out there right now. Depending upon which side you come down. When these two teams’ plays in week 17, the Chiefs did not play well yet had two different 14-point leads. Both times, big plays to Chase helped the Bengals get back in the game. Several Chiefs players were just returning from Covid and the game was in Cincinnati. I said it last week and I will say it again. Patrick Mahomes only playoff losses have come at the hands of Tom Brady. I get a superior team at home against a team that has barely advanced the last two weeks. The Raiders had a chance to tie the game late. Despite three turnovers, the Titans could have easily won and covered had they not failed on 3rd and 4th and short in that game. The Bengals cannot block up front. If the Chiefs jump out early, then the Bengals running game may have to disappear. That would allow the improved Chiefs pass rush to get after that weak Bengals offensive line. If you are doing a same game parlay (SGP), you should throw in the Chiefs to record at least one sack to boost it up. Since that week 17 game CEH is back and Jerrick McKinnon now exists. It appears the Chiefs will be healthy. Is there a doubt that Kansas City is going to score 30+? If you like the Bengals, you should take the over on their team total at 23.5. I know the Chiefs are getting 30+ Sunday, I think this is as far as the Bengals can go until their offensive line improves and their defense gets faster. I am on the Chiefs -7. I would grab this number while it still exists at some books.
SF +3.5 at LAR
I am 1-1 on each team this posts season. I was on the right side the first weekend and the wrong side last weekend. This is obviously, the third matchup for these two teams. This might seem stupid, but I think Jimmy G is healthy and going to play very well. The Niners defense is much better than I want to give them credit. They are actually healthy and their zone has given Matthew Stafford problems in the other games this season. I know this may be surprising, but Stafford has not thrown a pick this post-season. I believe that changes Sunday. My real concern is that it feels like everyone is on the Niners +3.5. I realize I am a victim of bubble syndrome where everyone in my little bubble in life and online likes the same side. That is scary. I suppose I will just never believe in Matthew Stafford, especially in a big game. We already know this crowd is going to be split. We know the Niners will figure out a way to run the ball. While I do love the Niners +3.5., I also have them on the money line. Both these coaches have been the Super Bowl recently, but I think we are getting a rematch of Niners and Chiefs. If the Rams are smart, they will come out throwing and be diverse with targets. The Packers had players open, but Aaron Rodgers refused to see his other options. I think Jimmy G shocks everyone, plays really well and the Niners offense is the story. Stafford will turn it over and the Niners will be put in a weird Trey Lance spot in the off season.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None
Premium
Regular Plays
CIN +7.5
SF +3.5
I will update the odds boosts this weekend, when they are posted!
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 SGP for the weekend. You get $10 in bonus money if you lose.
Draft Kings
$25 SGP for each game (Opt in required)
If you lose on either you get a $25 free bet. Do this for each game!
Joe B to throw 2+ TD’s +100
Burrow’s TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over is heavily juiced. This is basically taking the over on his prop at +100. Despite how I think the game goes, this is significant value. I am playing the boost.
Mahomes and Burrow to throw for 250+ Yards Ross Tucker Boost
This should pay -130. I canot stress this enough, you MUST FOLLOW the directions to get this boost. It is $25 max, but you have to do it. I am in.
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
KC -.5/SF +9.5 +125
This is a wager I can get behind. This should pay -125, or so depending upon the book. I am in.
Fox Bet
SF and KC to win +260 (FOX)
This should pay +217. I am on these two teams. I am in! My max bet was very small though.
Mahomes and Stafford to each throw for 250+ +100
Again, this should pay -130. I am in.
Let’s Get Weird
NFL Computer Model
Overall 136-145 48.39%
Playoffs 5-5 50%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 31-26 54.38%
Playoffs 5-5 50%
NFL Props 2-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 17-47 -1515
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 39-28 58.20%
Odds Boosts 20-47 -1215
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521
Win The Weekends 