Remember how we were all worried about Matt Stafford after he struggled down the stretch. The Rams blew out an overmatched Cardinals team and now the Rams are only 2.5-point dogs? What is happening here? If the TB offensive line is healthy, this line seems insanely low. Yet, our model has it at Rams +2. Again, I cannot do it. I get Tom Brady at home against a inferior quarterback? Stafford is going from winning his first ever playoff game to now beating Brady on the road? The lone caveat is if the Bucs line injuries are significant and both the center and tackle sit. Of course, that provides several issues for Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rams an injured secondary and Brady will have his chances to hit open receivers. It is a little scary who Brady will be throwing to, but if those non-Mike Evans receivers make plays the Bucs should win here. When this line dipped to Bucs -2.5, I snatched it up. I am on Tampa Bay here.
The last game is the best game of the weekend. This is the game; I could realistically see going either way. All the games could go either way, but this one I have significantly less conviction. I did bet a Josh Allen prop for this game that I listed below. To boil this down simply, no one has taken advantage of, or had the players to attack the Bills secondary. Tampa Bay carved the Bills up and Buffalo has not exactly played any passing game that can really attack down the field. Now, I get Patrick Mahomes laying under a field goal. At Home? MOREOVER, NO ONE LIKES THEM? People are not immune to being prisoners of the moment. The Bills looked exceptional last weekend, and yes, we were on them. Maybe I am the fool. Maybe the Bills are ready to ascend past the Chiefs. To become the king you have to kill the king in the NFL. If the Bills can go into Kansas City for the second time this season and win another night game, they deserve it all. The winner of this game will be favored next week, no matter who or where they play. I am taking the Chiefs -1.5. Everyone seems to have forgotten what the Chiefs are capable of and that their defense improved. If everyone is on the Bills, I am more than happy to go the other direction.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None
Premium
BUFF +2
Regular Plays
CIN +3.5
SF +5.5
LAR +3
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Brady and Stafford to each have 1+ passing TD’s in each half +350
We do not bet time dependent boosts.
PMI super boost
Bills to win and Allen to have 1+ passing TD +200
If you like the Bills you have to be on this. Allen is going to throw one passing TD. I may do this, even while I am betting the Chiefs, because it is $50 max and +200.
Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.
Here are mine!
Brady to throw for 350+ passing yards +450
This pays +320 on FD. Brady’s prop is set for 289.5. I realize his offensive line could be an issue and a lack of weapons as well. I think this is a big Playoff Lenny game. I am passing here, but this is a good price.
Allen to record 3+ passing TD’s +250
Allen’s prop is set to 1.5 and the over is massively juiced. This is going to be a high scoring game and this is a fair price. I am going to play this. I think Allen can get there and the Chiefs still win.
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money. .
Brady to throw 2+ TD passes +100
This is a fair price, I am going to play this. I am in.
KC and TB to win +225
This should pay +191. I am going to wait here and see if the TB offensive line is healthy. If it is, I am in. However, if the line keeps moving toward the Bills, this boost may become less valuable. Take your time here. This is getting worse and worse as the KC line drops. Pass. By the time the game starts, this is going to be what the price may be.
Let’s Get Weird
Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Barstool)
DK has this at 50.5. FD has it much higher at 52.5. Always shop around.
Allen averages 60.6 yards rushing in the playoffs. When it matters as the playoffs dog, Allen runs more. Last year in a game they trailed the entire time, he ran for 88 yards. I think he does so Sunday night.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 133-144 48.01%
Playoffs 2-4 33.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-28 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-37 47.14%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 30-23 56.60%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 16-45 -1565
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154 Combined
Overall 38-25 60.31%
Odds Boosts 19-45 -1265
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521
Win The Weekends 