I hope we are starting to get past most teams having a Covid outbreak. I know the Nets are about to be through it and so are the Hawks. As more teams emerge, we should see a little more normalcy moving forward. As always, please check injury and illness information before making any wagers.
We do have some blowout concerns tonight, with plenty of large spreads. This is a perfect night for me to lose a money line parlay because I am watching the Steelers.
Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols. Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
PHI -14
CHA +1.5
MEM +6.5
DET +16
CHI -13.5
NOP +9.5
DAL -3.5
ATL -5.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
MIA +11
LAC -3.5
*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Purdue/Oregon/Iowa to all win +100 (FD)
Great we are into the college basketball odds boosts section of the year. This normally does not happen until after the NFL playoffs start, but here we are. All three are 7+ point favorites and playing at home. This should pay -126, so this is a boost. Surprisingly, I am in on this. All three expected to win and the smallest money line is -330. This may be the first college hoops odds boost we have recommended this season.
Herro and Steph to combine for 10+ made 3’s +200 (DK)
Always with this combined stuff. Per usual, betting them parlayed to go over pays a lot better.
Steph’s prop is set to 5.5 and the under is juiced. There is not a prop listed for Herro now, but it will be less than Steph’s. A parlay of their overs will pay more when it is listed. Pass for me.
Ja and KD to combine for 60+ points +140 (DK)
DK loves the combined boosts. This is why I avoid them so much.
KD’s prop is set to 30.5.
Ja’s prop is set to 27.5 and the under is juiced. You can parlay them to both go over for +262. This is a pass for me.
KD/JA/Mitchell to all score 25+ points +200 (Fox)
KD’s prop is set to 30.5.
Ja’s prop is set to 27.5 and the under is juiced.
Mitchell’s prop is set to 27.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
I was very excited to bet this until I realized it should pay +193. This is a tiny boost and not worth the investment. Pass for me.
CHA/MEM/CHI +600 (Fox)
Every single day Fox Bet throws at least one dog into these and hopes no one notices. Memphis is the dog of the night. This should pay +580, but why? The Hornets are also small dogs. Pass for me.
Each team to win by 10+ points PHI/CHI/UTA +350 (Barstool)
At least Barstool is getting creative here. This boost gives you a break on two lines while asking the Jazz to just cover what the spread is currently at -9.5. This should pay +303, so it is a boost. I dubious about the Jazz on the road here. It seems like the Pelicans may have some people back, but nothing is confirmed. If the Pelicans rule people out, revisit this. For now, pass for me.
Embiid to score 30+ with 10+ rebounds and Sixers to win +325 (Barstool)
The Rockets have already suspended two starters for tonight.
Embiid’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is juiced.
Embiid’s rebound prop is set to 11.5 and the under is juiced.
This parlay should pay +278. My only issue here is will he play enough to get there. Sure, he will dominate and score at will, but with the game be competitive enough? I am passing, expecting a blowout.
NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.
ATL -5.5
This line should be closer to ten points. Nurkic may sit as well for Portland and the Hawks look to be on the other side of Covid.
Let’s Get Weird
GSW/ATL/MIL/UTA/CHI/PHI ML Parlay +169
Someone is losing here, I will guess Utah since they are on the road.
NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 21-23 47.72%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 23-25 47.91%
Hoops Parlay Record 5-10 +269
Hoops Odds Boosts 27-31 +2361
Hoops Player Props 3-5 -265
NBA Model Highest Rated 21-30 41.17%
NBA Model 227-240 48.60%
Win The Weekends 