Covid seems to be taking over the NBA and NFL season at this exact moment. We have had games canceled and teams like the Browns decimated. While we want everyone to be healthy and safe, the point of this blog is to improve everyone as a sports bettor. Sometimes that means acting fast and trying to take advantage of situations as news breaks. When Aaron Rodgers tested positive for Covid, I missed getting a bet in by seconds. As news breaks on Twitter, you have maybe two minutes to run and get a wager in to take advantage of the breaking news. (I will mention again that Fox Bet is the slowest to pull games and maybe you should head there first to get a wager in. I try DK first knowing I have an extra minute to get to Fox.)
When the twitter rumors started to come out about the Browns, I felt it was best to make a wager on the Raiders based on that speculation. I locked in Raiders +4.5. I look at this in two ways. If the rumors are correct, I will get a fantastic number as the line moves. If the rumors are wrong, I can always cash out of the bet, or buy out of it and bet the other side, and only lose the juice. If you are a $100 a game bettor, this would be a $10 loss on one of the sides. I am more than willing to risk the juice to get a fantastic number. In this case, the news was correct. I have the Raiders +4.5. Currently, the Raiders are now -3.5 points. Nick Mullins is expected to start for the Browns Saturday.
I have two options at this point. I can sit tight and hold my great Raiders value at +4.5. That is the boring option that does not give us a chance to maximize profits. I could take the Browns at +3.5. That would give me a window where each team winning by three or four points would win me both wagers. Lastly, I can also take the Browns money line at +160. That would give me a smaller window to win both wagers, but I would have to lay out less money.
I will be taking the Browns in some capacity Saturday. Nevertheless, the entire point of this is that you must act quickly. Once news hits, I am immediately rushing to place a bet. To me, there is almost no risk. You can always cash out of a bet or buy out of a position. Instead, because I acted fast, I have a risk free situation where I will try to win both wagers.
As usual, no odds boosts listed on most sites at this point.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None
Premium
NE+2.5
NO +11
Regular Plays
CLE +1.5
BUFF -10.5
DET +13.5
NYJ +10
NYG +11
WAS +7
PIT +1.5
HOU +3.5
CIN +2.5
ATL +9
LAR -4.5
BAL +5.5
MIN -4
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Draft Kings
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
Fox Bet
IND/LVR to both win +187
This parlay pays +215 over on FD, easy pass.
BUFF/ARZ/TENN to all win +160
I am on the Steelers here, so this is an easy pass. This should pay +157. What a boost. I am out.
NFL
Pit +1
Let’s Get Weird
5 Team 6.5 Point Teaser +350 (DK)
LAC +10/NE +9/PIT +7.5/CIN +9/PHI -.5
NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-112 46.15%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-19 52.5%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105
College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 28-20 58.33%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359
Win The Weekends 