Last year was the first year for our brand new NBA model. We feel like we have plenty of data points and have tweaked it where necessary and we our ready for this year. Expect us to post model results daily, with blog posts a majority of the days breaking down all the odds boosts on the major legal sports books. Weekends may be difficult with football still happening, but we will do our best. So how did we finish last season?
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%
In terms of our plays we gave out, we did very well. The plays we recommended finished at just over 55%. In the playoffs, we ended up at 62%. We finished positive on parlays, odds boosts and player props for a combined +2144. While the model was just above 50% in total, it was only year one, but we have more than enough data now. We are ready for the long journey that is the NBA season. So please join us. The NFL is one thing and is not as relentless as is the NBA. There are not days off between now and All-Star Break. Read, share, hit us up on Twitter and of course until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
BRK +1.5
GSW +3
Normally, in this section we would mention the highest rated in the model and recommend a wager. However, nothing is that highly rated in the model tonight.
Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nets to win both the first quarter and match +220 (FD)
Match? What is this soccer? As you are aware from football, I do not recommend betting timed boosts. The Nets have no motivation to win the first quarter. Pass.
The King Vs. The Chef (DK)
Here is how this works. Place a $50 money line wager on either team. You then get a $2 free bet for every point the star player for the team you picked scores. If you bet the Lakers, you get LeBron. If you bet the Warriors, you get Curry.
I am looking at this as essentially a free wager.
$50 on the Lakers nets you $31.25.
$50 on the Warriors nets you $70.
LeBron’s player prop for points is set to 23.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Curry’s player prop is set to 33.5.
If we use 23 points as LeBron’s base number here, if the Lakers lose you would not break even in terms of free bets if LeBron scores at his prop number. The 23 points would net you $46 in free bets for a loss of $4. Conversely, if you take Curry and he finishes with 33 points, again right at his number, you would earn $66 in free bets. As long as Curry scores 25 points you would break even on this entire transaction. The optimal play here is to bet the Warriors money line, with the expectation that even if they lose you would be refunded in the form of free bets via Curry’s offensive output. I am in on a free wager on the Warriors and the Curry side here.
Russ to record a triple double +280 (DK)
Russ is +250 to record a triple-double tonight. This is a very small boost all things considered. This is his first game, with a brand new team and he is undoubtedly the third option. I think Russ may actually thrive here. My main concern is rebounds with both LeBron and Anthony Davis here. Russ’s rebound prop is set to 9.5 and the under is heavily juiced. Frankly, so is his assist prop. You can parlay Russ to go over each prop and score 10+ points on Fan Duel at +277. You can tell where this is going. This is not a boost worth betting, as it is miniscule. Pass.
KD and Harden to combine for 60+ points +160 (DK)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5.
Yes, while this boost is combined, you can parlay the two of them to score 30+ for a much better price of +484. Pass for me. When it is combined it is usually better to bet them separately or parlayed like this.
Giannis and AD 2+ Dunks +125 (Fox)
These dunk boosts kill me. Yes, I can find dunk data, but I hate these.
Giannis averages 2.91 dunks per game.
AD averages 1.5 dunks per game.
See, these are always tricky. You are asking AD to for sure have two dunks, as Giannis should get there. I am passing. I hate having to worry about dunks.
Nets and Lakers to win +225 (Fox)
This parlay pays +229 over on FD. Easy pass on this boosts.
Giannis/Lebron/KD to score 25+ Each +300 (Fox)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 23.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This parlay should pay +221. Therefore, this is a boost and two of the players are expected to exceed this number relatively easily. Both KD and Giannis to score 25+ is -430 or higher.
These two teams played four times last season. LeBron scored 19, 19, 22 and 22. The market expects LeBron under 25. The data from last season suggest he should fall under 25 as well. I am passing. If you want to fire, you can though. The reason is that you are almost getting the over on LeBron at +300, provided nothing weird happens in the early game. Like I said, you can fire, but I am passing.
KD and Giannis to each score 30+ +250 (Barstool)
This should pay +187.
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This is a fair boost if you want to play it. You are asking both people to hit the over on their prop and if you think that happens then fire this up. I am taking a wait and see approach here with the new look Nets.
NBA
BRK +1.5
Am I the only one who remembers the Nets would have crushed them if James Harden was healthy? The Nets are deep and good and I think despite the ring and banner ceremony, come out of this with a win.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NBA Record 2020-2021
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%
Win The Weekends 