Good news, the picks I am giving out are 11-4 on the season. Bad News the computer model is off to a slow start. All of this adds up to me being 12-8 in the Draft King’s pick’em contest. The current leader is 16-5 with the Raiders tonight. Either way, I am right there after four weeks. Tonight is somewhat strange as the computer really likes the Raiders, but it is possible that the Chargers are just really good. When Dallas beat the Chargers, we wrote it off as a weird fluke of penalties and red zone turnovers, but now that Dallas continues to solidify how good they are, that is not a terrible loss at all.
I kind of like the Chargers, despite it going against the computer model. Yet, I am going to stay away. I did fire on an odds boost though and will of course be playing showdown on the major DFS sites.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
LVR +3.5
Regular Plays
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.
Derek Carr to have 1+ passing TDs in each half +200
I hate timed boosts. Pass.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
Herbert to throw for 325+ Yards +190
This should pay +178. Herbert has been over this number in two of three games this season. Everyone has thrown on the Raiders because the Raiders have been scoring a ton. Herbert’s prop is set to 295.5 tonight. This is such a small boost that it is an easy pass for me.
Carr to have 325+ passing yards +280
This should pay +235. Carr has thrown for over 382 yards in each game this season. Carr’s prop is set to 281.5 tonight. I want to play this, I really do, but the Chargers defense has held QB’s in check. I may play something similar, but not this boost.
Allen and Williams to have 200+ receiving yards combined +260
This is pretty weird as you can parlay them to both go over 100+ receiving yards for +846. Yes, I know this is combined. Allen’s prop is set to 78.5 and Williams is set to 77.5. This is asking a lot, plus I would rather bet the parlay at a significantly better price. Pass.
Barstool Sportsbook
LAC to win and 50+ Points +200
The total is set to 51.5 points. This should pay +180 or so. I mean it is a boost and it is slightly under the total. If you think the Chargers win and there will be points, feel free to fire away.
Herbert over 291.5 Yards passing/Ekeler over 58.5 rushing yards/ Allen to score a TD/LAC to win +1000
This should pay around +940, so it is a boost. I would suggest you do a SGP on another site unless you want these exact numbers. I mean, this is fine, if you like it all, but ehh. Pass for me.
Fox Bet
Williams 70+ REC Yards and a TD +200
Williams is set to 77.5. Williams is +110 to score a TD.
This parlay should pay, +206. This is an easy pass. I am out.
Carr 300+ Passing Yards/2+ Passing TDs/LVR +3.5 +450
Over on another site you can parlay this for +610. This is an easy pass when you can get a better number at another location.
Waller/Allen/Williams 50+ Receiving Yards Each +150
Allen’s prop is set to 78.5 and Williams is set to 77.5.
Waller’s prop is set to 68.5.
If you parlay them to all get over 50+ yards receiving, it should pay +116. This is pretty solid and everyone is expected to be over this number. I am in.
NFL
College Football
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-38 40.62%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 7-7 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-12 40%
Our Plays
Overall 11-4 73.33%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-15 -815
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100
College Football
Overall 4-1 80%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 